Disentangling the effects of management and climate change on habitat suitability for saproxylic species in boreal forests

Forest degradation induced by intensive forest management and temperature increase by climate change are resulting in biodiversity decline in boreal forests.Intensive forest management and high-end climate emission scenarios can further reduce the amount and diversity of deadwood,the limiting factor for habitats for saproxylic species in European boreal forests.The magnitude of their combined effects and how changes in forest management can affect deadwood diversity under a range of climate change scenarios are poorly understood.We used forest growth simulations to evaluate how forest management and climate change will individually and jointly affect habitats of red-listed saproxylic species in Finland.We simulated seven forest management regimes and three climate scenarios(reference,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)over 100 years.Management regimes included set aside,continuous cover forestry,business-as-usual(BAU)and four modifications of BAU.Habitat suitability was assessed using a speciesspecific habitat suitability index,including 21 fungal and invertebrate species groups.“Winner”and“loser”species were identified based on the modelled impacts of forest management and climate change on their habitat suitability.We found that forest management had a major impact on habitat suitability of saproxylic species compared to climate change.Habitat suitability index varied by over 250%among management regimes,while overall change in habitat suitability index caused by climate change was on average only 2%.More species groups were identified as winners than losers from impacts of climate change(52%–95%were winners,depending on the climate change scenario and management regime).The largest increase in habitat suitability index was achieved under set aside(254%)and the climate scenario RCP8.5(>2%),while continuous cover forestry was the most suitable regime to increase habitat suitability of saproxylic species(up to+11%)across all climate change scenarios.Our results show that close-to-nature management regimes(e.g.,continuous cover forestry and set aside)can increase the habitat suitability of many saproxylic boreal species more than the basic business-as-usual regime.This suggests that biodiversity loss of many saproxylic species in boreal forests can be mitigated through improved forest management practices,even as climate change progresses.

Modeling susceptibility to deforestation of remaining ecosystems in North Central Mexico with logistic regression

Determining underlying factors that foster deforestation and delineating forest areas by levels of susceptibility are of the main challenges when defining policies for forest management and planning at regional scale. The susceptibility to deforestation of remaining forest ecosystems （shrubland, temperate forest and rainforest） was conducted in the state of San Luis Potosi, located in north central Mexico. Spatial analysis techniques were used to detect the deforested areas in the study area during 1993-2007. Logistic regression was used to relate explana- tory variables （such as social, investment, forest production, biophysical and proximity factors） with susceptibility to deforestation to construct predictive models with two focuses： general and by biogeographical zone In all models, deforestation has positive correlation with distance to rainfed agriculture, and negative correlation with slope, distance to roads and distance to towns. Other variables were significant in some cases, but in others they had dual relationships, which varied in each biogeographi- cal zone. The results show that the remaining rainforest of Huasteca region is highly susceptible to deforestation. Both approaches show that more than 70% of the current rainforest area has high and very high levels of susceptibility to deforestation. The values represent a serious concern with global warming whether tree carbon is released to atmos- phere. However, after some considerations, encouraging forest environ- mental services appears to be the best alternative to achieve sustainableforest management.

Reforestation Programs in Southwest China:Reported Success,Observed Failure, and the Reasons Why

Ever since the disastrous floods of 1998, the Chinese government has used the Natural Forest Protection and Sloping Land Conversion Programs to promote afforestation and reforestation as means to reduce runoff, control erosion, and stabilize local livelihoods. These two ambitious programs have been reported as large-scale successes, contributing to an overall increase in China’s forest cover and to the stated goals of environmental stabilization. A small-scale field study at the project level of the implementation of these two programs in Baiwu Township, Yanyuan County, Sichuan, casts doubt upon the accuracy and reliability of these claims of success; ground observations revealed utter failure in some sites and only marginal success in others. Reasons for this discrepancy are posited as involving ecological, economic, and bureaucratic factors. Further research is suggested to determine whether these discrepancies are merely local aberrations or represent larger-scale failures in reforestation programs.

Integrated use of GIS, remote sensing and multi-criteria decision analysis to assess ecological land suitability in multi-functional forestry

The Zagros forests are a treasure of valuable oak forests, but they have been severely degraded from long-term misuse. Geographic information systems （GIS） and multi-criteria decision analysis （MCDA） have been increasingly used to improve the management of vulnerable ecosystems to prevent further degradation and increase the sustainability of land use. This study presents a methodology to assess land suitability using remote sensing （RS） to obtain wall-to-wall data for the calculations, GIS to analyze the data, and MCDA to rank alternative land uses. The criteria and subcriteria affecting the suitability of land for different uses were identified and weighted using an analytic hierarchy process. Variables used as subcriteria were assessed using satellite data and other sources of information such as existing maps and field surveys. Numerical values for the subcriteria were classified, and each class was given a priority rating according to expert judgments. Based on the ratings and weights of the subcriteria, a priority map was created for each land use using the weighted linear combination method. The priority maps for different land uses were overlaid to obtain a preliminary land use map, which often indicated several simultaneous land uses for the same location. The preliminary map was further edited by removing unrealistic, mutually exclusive land-use combinations. The study tested and demonstrated the potential of integrating RS, G1S and MCDA techniques for solving complicated land allocation problems in forested regions using a scientifically sound and practical approach for efficient and sustainable allocation of forestland for different uses.

Estimation of carbon storage of forest biomass for voluntary carbon markets:preliminary results

Estimating the carbon storage of forests is essential to support climate change mitigation and promote the transition into a low-carbon emission economy.To achieve this goal,voluntary carbon markets(VCMs)are essential.VCMs are promoted by a spontaneous demand,not imposed by binding targets,as the regulated ones.In Italy,only in Veneto and Piedmont Regions(Northern Italy),VCMs through forestry activities were carried out.Valle Camonica District(Northern Italy,Lombardy Region)is ready for a local VCM,but carbon storage of its forests was never estimated.The aim of this work was to estimate the total carbon storage(TCS;t C ha^−1)of forest biomass of Valle Camonica District,at the stand level,taking into account:(1)aboveground biomass,(2)belowground biomass,(3)deadwood,and(4)litter.We developed a user-friendly model,based on site-specifi c primary(measured)data,and we applied it to a dataset of 2019 stands extracted from 45 Forest Management Plans.Preliminary results showed that,in 2016,the TCS achieved 76.02 t C ha^−1.The aboveground biomass was the most relevant carbon pool(48.86 t C ha^−1;64.27%of TCS).From 2017 to 2029,through multifunctional forest management,the TCS could increase of 2.48 t C ha^−1(+3.26%).In the same period,assuming to convert coppices stands to high forests,an additional TCS of 0.78 t C ha^−1(equal to 2.85 t CO 2 ha^−1)in the aboveground biomass could be achieved without increasing forest areas.The additional carbon could be certifi ed and exchanged on a VCM,contributing to climate change mitigation at a local level.