The MM5,which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model,and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper.Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial ...The MM5,which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model,and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper.Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes,and conduct some numerical simulating experiments.The results of No.9608 typhoon(Gloria)show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements,such as inaccurate position of typhoon center,weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon,which are caused by shortage of data over the sea.Some improvements have been made in the track forecast.Through several comparing experiments,the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.展开更多
采用MM5数值预报模式,以及以MM5和它的伴随模式为基础的四维变分同化系统,以NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为背景场,运用BDA(bogus data assimilation)方案优化热带气旋的初始结构,从而一定程度上弥补了海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准确...采用MM5数值预报模式,以及以MM5和它的伴随模式为基础的四维变分同化系统,以NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为背景场,运用BDA(bogus data assimilation)方案优化热带气旋的初始结构,从而一定程度上弥补了海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准确,台风环流偏弱,台风内部结构不完整等问题,在此基础上对台风进行了72小时数值预报。通过对多个台风个例的研究表明,BDA方案对台风的初始化处理,有效性地构造出了原来分析场所缺乏的台风内部结构,并且与模式初始场协调,因而大大改进了台风中心强度的预报,对于台风路径的预报也有改进,但不是十分理想,还有待提高。展开更多
基金National Key Fundamental Research Project of China (40175012)
文摘The MM5,which is the PSU/NCAR mesoscale nonhydrostatic limited-area model,and its adjoining modeling system are used in this paper.Taking T106 analysis data as background field the authors generate an optimal initial condition of a typhoon by using two bogus data assimilation schemes,and conduct some numerical simulating experiments.The results of No.9608 typhoon(Gloria)show that the optimal initial field have some dramatic improvements,such as inaccurate position of typhoon center,weaker typhoon circulation and incomplete inner structure of the typhoon,which are caused by shortage of data over the sea.Some improvements have been made in the track forecast.Through several comparing experiments,the initialization optimized by BDA scheme is found to be more reasonable than GFDL scheme and its typhoon track forecast is better.
文摘采用MM5数值预报模式,以及以MM5和它的伴随模式为基础的四维变分同化系统,以NCEP/NCAR再分析资料为背景场,运用BDA(bogus data assimilation)方案优化热带气旋的初始结构,从而一定程度上弥补了海洋上资料缺乏所造成的台风中心位置不准确,台风环流偏弱,台风内部结构不完整等问题,在此基础上对台风进行了72小时数值预报。通过对多个台风个例的研究表明,BDA方案对台风的初始化处理,有效性地构造出了原来分析场所缺乏的台风内部结构,并且与模式初始场协调,因而大大改进了台风中心强度的预报,对于台风路径的预报也有改进,但不是十分理想,还有待提高。
