Gold Prices as a Mechanism of Control and Equilibrium in Financial Markets

Gold is used as a currencies comparative measure and,because of its properties(it does not rust)and use(in space industry,for example),it has a significant role in balancing both financial markets and economies.During crises,gold seldom loses value.We aim to show that price of gold is a stabilizing factor for the economic balance.We will do so utilizing the chaos theory,which gains more and more popularity in social sciences.

中国股票市场长期记忆特征的实证研究

股票市场收益的长期记忆特征对于系统非线性结构的确定以及市场有效性的研究具有重要的意义.针对上海和深圳的周和日收益序列,采用非线性估计方法提高R/S系列分析估计H参数的精确度.并用ARFIMA模型对沪深股市的收益率的长期记忆性进行了检验,根据分段检验的结果,得出一些中国证券市场有效性的结论.

上海股市收益序列的长期记忆性建模分析及预测

应用ARFIMA模型研究上海股票市场收益序列的长期记忆性,揭示了上海股市收益具有较明显的长期记忆性,进而从另外一个角度证实了上海股票市场尚未达到弱式有效的结论。上海股市收益序列进行预测,并与传统的线性模型相比,分整的ARFIMA模型提高了股票收益序列长期预测的可靠性。