THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GLOBAL WARMING AND THE VARIATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

The relationship between global warming and the variation in tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency is analyzed using the data of the Tropical Cyclone Year Book by the China Meteorological Administration and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data from 1949 to 2007. The observational results indicate that the average sea surface temperature (SST) in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) region (10°N– 20°N, 100°E– 140°E) increases by 0.6°C against the background of global warming, while the frequency of tropical cyclone geneses in this region decreases significantly. Generally, the rise of SSTs is favorable for the genesis of tropical cyclones, but it is now shown to be contrary to the normal effect. Most of the tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific (WNP) are generated in the ITCZ. This is quite different from the case in the Atlantic basin in which the tropical cyclones are mostly generated from the easterly wave. Our research results demonstrate that the ITCZ has a weakening trend in strength, and it has moved much more equatorward in the past 40 years; both are disadvantageous to the formation of tropical cyclones. Furthermore, our study also found that the ridge of the subtropical high tends to shift slightly equatorward, which is another adverse mechanism for the formation of tropical cyclones.

Continuous-cyclic variations in the b-value of the earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution

Seismicity of the Earth （M ≥ 4.5） was compiled from NEIC, IRIS and ISC catalogues and used to compute b-value based on various time windows. It is found that continuous cyclic b-variations occur on both long and short time scales, the latter being of much higher value and sometimes in excess of 0.7 of the absolute b-value. These variations occur not only yearly or monthly, but also daily. Before the occurrence of large earthquakes, b-values start increasing with variable gradients that are affected by foreshocks. In some cases, the gradient is reduced to zero or to a negative value a few days before the earthquake occurrence. In general, calculated b-values attain maxima 1 day before large earthquakes and minima soon after their occurrence. Both linear regression and maximum likelihood methods give correlatable, but variable results. It is found that an expanding time window technique from a fixed starting point is more effective in the study of b-variations. The calculated b-variations for the whole Earth, its hemispheres, quadrants and the epicentral regions of some large earthquakes are of both local and regional character, which may indicate that in such cases, the geodynamic processes acting within a certain region have a much regional effect within the Earth. The b-variations have long been known to vary with a number of local and regional factors including tectonic stresses. The results reported here indicate that geotectonic stress remains the most significant factor that controls b-variations. It is found that for earthquakes with Mw ≥ 7, an increase of about 0.20 in the b-value implies a stress increase that will result in an earthquake with a magnitude one unit higher.

Anomalous Variation of Beat Frequency in a Dual Frequency He-Ne Laser

The beat frequency in a dual frequency He-Ne laser varies while the resonant cavity length is tuned. As to the laser with two longitudinal modes, the variation amplitude is commonly less than 500 kHz, proven by experiments and theories. This study reveals an anomalous variation of the beat frequency when a piece of element is put into the cavity and is aligned with the laser axis. Consequently the variation amplitude couM reach 22 MHz, several dozen times larger than that without the intra-cavity element. This cannot be explained only by laser mode pulling and pushing effects. Some influencing factors are investigated experimentally, including the tilted angle of the element and the distance between its surface and cavity mirror. The qualitative analysis is discussed, which agrees with the experimental results.

Effect of thickness variations of lithium niobate on insulator waveguide on the frequency spectrum of spontaneous parametric down-conversion

We study the effect of waveguide thickness variations on the frequency spectrum of spontaneous parametric downconversion in the periodically-poled lithium niobate on insulator(LNOI)waveguide.We analyze several variation models and our simulation results show that thickness variations in several nanometers can induce distinct effects on the central peak of the spectrum,such as narrowing,broadening,and splitting.We also prove that the effects of positive and negative variations can be canceled and thus lead to a variation-robust feature and an ultra-broad bandwidth.Our study may promote the development of on-chip photon sources in the LNOI platform,as well as opens up a way to engineer photon frequency state.

Monitoring the Modal Frequency and Velocity Variations of Bridges under Ambient Excitation

We conducted a long-term monitoring experiment on the Lutuanxilu Bridge located in Changping District of Beijing, employing our recently developed real-time bridge monitoring system based on the Guralp CMG-6TD broadband seismometer. We identified the modal parameters with the stochastic subspace identification( SSI) algorithm,and continuously monitored the temporal velocity variation with coda wave interferometry.The results show that:( 1) the highly sensitive Guralp CMG-6TD broadband seismometer,which records the three-component vibration signal within broad frequency range,is well suited for long-term bridge health monitoring.( 2) With the continuous vibration signal from ambient excitation,the stochastic subspace algorithm can robustly identify the low-order modal parameters and the coda wave interferometry can accurately monitor the tiny velocity variation.( 3) The elastic modulus of bridge materials changes significantly associated with varying temperature,leading to diurnal velocity variation with amplitude of approximately 1%. The velocity variation shows strong negative correlation with temperature fluctuation. Meanwhile,the modal frequencies remain quite stable,suggesting that the velocity variation may be a more sensitive quantitative damage index.( 4) While the modal frequencies reflect the integrated health status of the bridge,the velocity variation can be utilized to monitor the local elastic modulus. Therefore,it is crucial for bridge health monitoring to continuously monitor the two key damage indexes under ambient excitation.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THUNDERSTORM FREQUENCY VARIATION AND THEIR POSSIBLE RELATION WITH THE ADJUSTMENT OF CROP DISTRIBUTION IN THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA

In order to research possible influences of the adjustment of plant distribution on the development frequency of thunderstorms over the Leizhou Peninsula, mathematic statistic methods, including correlation analyses, 11 kinds of fitting models and all-variable regression methods, were used for analyses and research. The results show that the average trend of the number of annual thunderstorm days is descending obviously, and there are thunderstorms in all seasons, in which warm post-midday thunderstorms have taken up the most part, and high frequency is found from May to September, and the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms have a great annual discrepancy. The vegetation structure has been improved along with the reduction of rice fields and the area increment of sugarcane and fruits planting, which results in the decrease of the number of thunderstorm days; the change in the characteristics of winter spare fields, which is caused by the planting of vegetables, limits the formation of thunderstorms in early winter and late spring. Meanwhile, the area adjustment of peanut planting has little influence on the variation of thunderstorm days. The adjustment of principal crop distribution, such as rice, sugarcane, fruits and vegetables, may have obvious influence on the formation of thunderstorms, and sugarcane has the largest effect, followed in turn by rice, vegetables and fruits, and the adjustment of crop distribution has little influence on the starting and ending dates of thunderstorms.

Variation in allelic frequencies at loci associated with kernel weight and their effects on kernel weight-related traits in winter wheat

Knowledge of allelic frequencies at loci associated with kernel weight and effects on kernel weight-related traits is crucial for yield improvement in wheat. Kernel weight-related traits were evaluated in 200 Chinese winter wheat cultivars(lines) grown at the Xinxiang Experimental Station, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Xinxiang in Henan Province, for three consecutive years from 2014 to 2016. Alleles associated with kernel weight at nine loci, TaCKX6-D1, TaCwi-A1, TaCWI-4A, TaGS1a, TaGS5-A1, TaGS3-3A, TaGW2-6A, TaSus2-2B, and TaTGW6-A1, were determined for all cultivars(lines). ANOVA showed that genotypes, years and their interactions had significant effects on thousand-kernel weight(TKW), kernel length(KL) and kernel width(KW). The overall mean frequencies of alleles conferring high and low TKW at the nine loci were 65.9% and 33.4%, with the ranges of 37.0%–85.0% and 13.5%–63.0% for single loci. The frequencies of high-TKW alleles were over 50.0% at eight of the loci. Genotypes at each locus with the high-TKW allele had higher TKW than those with the low-TKW allele. The high-TKW allele Hap-H at the TaSus2-2B locus can be preferably used to increase grain yield due to its high TKW(49.32 g). A total of 18 main allelic combinations(ACs) at nine loci were detected. Three ACs(AC1–AC3) had significantly higher TKW than AC6 with high-TKW alleles at all nine loci even though they contained some low-TKW alleles. This indicated that other loci controlling kernel weight were present in the high-TKW cultivars. This work provides important information for parental selection and marker-assisted selection for breeding.

Design and Development of Wind-Solar Hybrid Power System with Compressed Air Energy Storage for Voltage and Frequency Regulations

The intermittent nature of wind and solar photovoltaic energy systems leads to the fluctuation of power generated due to the fact that the power output is highly dependent upon local weather conditions, which results to the load shading issue that led to the voltage and frequency instability. In additional to that, the high proportions of erratic renewable energy sources can lead to erratic frequency changes which affect the grid stability. In order to reduce this effect, the energy storage system is commonly used in most wind-solar energy systems to balance the voltage and frequency instability during load variations. One of the innovative energy storage systems is the compressed air energy storage system (CAES) for wind and solar hybrid energy system and this technology is the key focus in this research study. The aim of this research was to examine the system configuration of the CAES system through modelling and experimental approach with PID controller design for regulating the voltage and frequency under different load conditions. The essential elements and the entire system have been presented in this work as thorough modelling in the MATLAB/Simulink environment for different load conditions. The developed model was tested through an experimental workbench using the developed prototype of the compressed air storage in the Siemens Lab at DeKUT and explored the consequence of the working parameters on the system proficiency and the model accuracy. The performance of the system for the developed prototype of CAES system was validated using results from an experimental workbench with MATLAB/Simulink R2022b simulation. The modeling and experimental results, shows that the frequency fluctuation and voltage drop of the developed CAES system during load variations was governed by the I/P converter using a PID_Compact controller programed in the TIA Portal V17 software and downloaded into PLC S7 1200. Based on these results, the model can be applied as a basis for the performance assessment of the compressed air energy storage system so as to be included in current technology of wind and solar hybrid energy systems.

Diagnosis of Disc Space Variation Fault Degree of Transformer Winding Based on K-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm

Winding is one of themost important components in power transformers.Ensuring the health state of the winding is of great importance to the stable operation of the power system.To efficiently and accurately diagnose the disc space variation(DSV)fault degree of transformer winding,this paper presents a diagnostic method of winding fault based on the K-Nearest Neighbor(KNN)algorithmand the frequency response analysis(FRA)method.First,a laboratory winding model is used,and DSV faults with four different degrees are achieved by changing disc space of the discs in the winding.Then,a series of FRA tests are conducted to obtain the FRA results and set up the FRA dataset.Second,ten different numerical indices are utilized to obtain features of FRA curves of faulted winding.Third,the 10-fold cross-validation method is employed to determine the optimal k-value of KNN.In addition,to improve the accuracy of the KNN model,a comparative analysis is made between the accuracy of the KNN algorithm and k-value under four distance functions.After getting the most appropriate distance metric and kvalue,the fault classificationmodel based on theKNN and FRA is constructed and it is used to classify the degrees of DSV faults.The identification accuracy rate of the proposed model is up to 98.30%.Finally,the performance of the model is presented by comparing with the support vector machine(SVM),SVM optimized by the particle swarmoptimization(PSO-SVM)method,and randomforest(RF).The results show that the diagnosis accuracy of the proposed model is the highest and the model can be used to accurately diagnose the DSV fault degrees of the winding.

ENSO Frequency Asymmetry and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in Observations and 19 CMIP5 Models

Using observational data and the pre-industrial simulations of 19 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5（CMIP5）, the El Ni o（EN） and La Ni a（LN） events in positive and negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO） phases are examined. In the observational data, with EN（LN） events the positive（negative） SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific is much stronger in positive（negative） PDO phases than in negative（positive） phases. Meanwhile,the models cannot reasonably reproduce this difference. Besides, the modulation of ENSO frequency asymmetry by the PDO is explored. Results show that, in the observational data, EN is 300% more（58% less） frequent than LN in positive（negative）PDO phases, which is significant at the 99% confidence level using the Monte Carlo test. Most of the CMIP5 models exhibit results that are consistent with the observational data.

Analysis of the dynamic characteristics and stochastic simulation on variations of beach volumes

This paper analyzes the dynamic characteristics of the variations of the beach volumes for three level zonesof the Yanjing Beach in the Shuidong Bay of the western Guangdong Province by using the methods of dynamic systemanalysis and the multi-dimensional spectral estimation. The results show that the variations of the beach volume arecharaCterized by the multiband oscillations with a dominant semimonth period. Upwards the low tide level, the beachtends to be stable. The estimates of the partial coherences and the partial phases indicate that the variations of thebeach volumes are mainly the results of the direct actions of the waves which are influenced by the tidal level changesand driven by the wind stress. The simulation results of the beach volume series for different beach heart zones bythreshold mixed regressive models indicate that the influence of the tide on the variations of the beach volumes is weakened and the direct actions of the wave energy and the wind stress are apparently enhanced with the increase of thebeach height.(This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China.)

The Seasonal Variation of Large Volume Airgun Signals in Hutubi,Xinjiang

In order to study the seasonal variation of large volume airgun signals in Hutubi,Xinjiang,we analyzed 2,936 signals of airgun source excitations during 2015-2016 received by a seismograph on the bank of the excitation pool.Firstly,the RMS value of the signal amplitude and the daily average temperature were compared after linearly superimposing the signal in days,to analyze the influence of the surface ice cover on the excitation energy release of the airgun source.The result shows that the ice cover will reduce the excitation energy,and the thicker the ice cover is,the more obvious the excitation energy reduces.Secondly,the time-frequency analysis method was used to analyze the influence of the surface ice cover on the signal frequency.It is concluded that the existence of the ice cover has little effect on the signal frequency,but it will affect the intensity of the signal around 4 Hz between 1-2 s after excitation.The cause of these phenomena is that the ice cover affects the bubble oscillation,which in turn affects the energy conversion.The study shows that when using the cross-correlation delay method to calculate the wave velocity,the signals can be divided into two periods according to the daily average temperature:with or without ice cover on the upper surface of the excitation pool.This can help eliminate the influence of the source variation and improve the accuracy of the monitoring results.

On Frequency Sensitivity and Mode Orthogonality of Flexible Robotic Manipulators

This paper presents sensitivity analysis of vibration frequencies of flexible manipulators with respect to variations of systems parameters such as rotational inertia of hub,and mass,moment,and side of tip load.Both Euler-Bernoulli and Timoshenko dynamical models of flexible manipulators are discussed.By using variational method,sensitivity indices are obtained with explicit expressions for measuring the sensitivity of frequencies.Based on variational formulations,a novel method for deriving the orthogonal relations among vibration modal shape functions of flexible manipulators is introduced.With this method,the orthogonal relations can be derived easily without invoking the tedious process of differentiation and integration by part,as commonly used in their derivation.

Theoretical analysis of ion cyclotron range of frequency antenna array for HT-7U

This paper considers the coupling analysis of phased antenna array designed to excite fast wave in the ion cyclotron range of frequency. The coupling of the antenna is calculated in slab geometry. The coupling code based on the variational principle gives the self-consistent current flowing in the antenna, this method has been extended so that it can be applied to a phased antenna array. As an example, this paper analyses the coupling prosperities of a 2 × 2 phased antenna array. It gives the optimum geometry of antenna array. The fields excited at plasma surface are found to more or less correspond to the antenna current phasing.

Variability of the Critical Frequency foF2 for Equatorial Regions during Solar Cycle’s Minima and Maxima at Ouagadougou and Manila Stations

In this paper we report on the foF2 variabilities for two equatorial regions (Ouagadougou: Lat. 12.4°N;Long. 358.5°E, Dip. 1.43°S;and Manila: Lat. 14°36'15.12''N;Long. 120°58'55.92''E;Dip. 0.6°S) during solar cycles 20 and 21 minima and maxima phases. Many previous works have argued on the diurnal and seasonal variation of foF2 for different solar events conditions for latitudinal position. But there are few investigations for Africa equatorial region longitudinal variation. The present paper’s goal is to outline possible similarity in foF2 behavior between variations for better understanding of physical process lead to some observed phenomenon in Asia-Africa equatorial sector. The F-layer critical frequency (foF2) data observed from the two equatorial ionosonde stations have been used for the present comparative study. The results show significant similarity between the critical frequency (foF2) seasonal variations over the time intervals 1976-1996. During day-time measured data from Manila station are higher than those from Ouagadougou station. That may lie in that Manila is closer to equatorial ionization crest region. During solar minimum phase, the longitudinal variation of foF2 shows two crossing points (11:00 UT and 22:00 UT) between the foF2 profiles form the two stations for all seasons regardless of the solar cycle. However during intense solar activity condition, the number of crossing-point between measured data from Manila and Ouagadougou stations varies by seasons and solar cycle. This phenomenon may be due to the compilations of severe activities (storms, coronal mass ejection, heliosheet fluctuations) during the solar maximum phases.

The Background Variation of Natural Source ELF and Its EM Abnormal Phenomena in Yunnan Earthquakes

In order to add earthquake monitoring methods and develop new method research,the ELF Network for Earthquake Monitoring selected 30 stations in the Capital Circle and the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Finding electromagnetic field background variation is the basis of distinguishing the seismic electromagnetic anomalies. This paper introduces the data acquisition and selection of the Shexian,Anqiu,Lijiang and Dali stations which have recorded for longer time with better data and are located on the similar latitude. Then we use the natural source electromagnetic field's auto-power spectrum to express the intensity of the electromagnetic field. By using power spectral data of many frequencies in the observation frequency band,after the data pre-processing and sliding average noising,the background variation of extremely low frequency stations and the range ability were acquired.Taking the Baoshan M5. 1 earthquake on October 30,2015 and Dali M5. 0 earthquake on May 18,2016 as examples,the authors analyzed the earthquake electromagnetic anomaly characteristic of ELF stations around the earthquakes.

Annual and interannual variations of sea-level anomaly in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea

Annual and interannual variations of sea-level anomaly （SLA） in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea are investigated using altimeter - derived SLA data from 1993 to 2003. It is found that the SLA annual variation in the study area can be divided into three phases with distinctive patterns. During the southwest monsoon （May -September）, positive SLA presents in the equatorial region and extends northward along the eastern boundary of the bay, and the SLA distribution in the interior bay appears to be high in the east and low in the west with two cyclonic ceils developing in the north and south of the western bay respectively, between which an anticyclonic cell exists. During the early northeast monsoon （ October - December） , the whole bay is dominated by a large cyclonic cell with the pattern of high SLA in the east and low in the west still retained, and the SLA distribution outside the bay is changed in response to the reversal of the Indian Monsoon Current （IMC） in November. During the late northeast monsoon （January -April） , a large anticyclonic cell of SLA develops in the bay with negative SLA prevailing in the equatorial region and extending northward along the eastern boundary of bay. Therefore, the SLA distribution in the interior bay reverses to be high in the west and low in the east. It is suggested that the SLA annual variation in the bay is primarily driven by the local wind stress curl, involving Sverdrup balance while the abrupt SLA variation during the peak of northeast monsoon may be partly caused by the semiannual fluctuation of wind in the equatorial region. This fast adjustment in the interior bay is induced by the upwelling coastal Kelvin wave excited by the decay of Wyrtki jet during December through January. Besides the annual variation, in the bay, there are obvious SLA fluctuations with the periods of 2 and 3 - 7 a, which are driven by the interannual variability of large - scale wind field in the equatorial region. The coastal Kelvin wave also provides an important link for the SLA interannual variation between the equatorial region and the interior bay. It is found that the E1 Nino -Southern Oscillation （ENSO） -induced influence on the SLA interannual variation in the interior bay is stronger than the Indian Ocean dipole （IOD） with the associated pattern of low sea-level presenting along the periphery of the bay and high sea-level in the northeast of Sri Lanka.

NONLINEAR NATURAL FREQUENCY OF SHALLOW CONICAL SHELLS WITH VARIABLE THICKNESS

The nonlinear dynamical variation equation and compatible equation of the shallow conical shell with variable thickness are obtained by the theory of nonlinear dynamical variation equation and compatible equation of the circular thin plate with variable thickness. Assuming the thin film tension is composed of two items. The compatible equation is transformed into two independent equations. Selecting the maximum amplitude in the center of the shallow conical shells with variable thickness as the perturbation parameter, the variation equation and the differential equation are transformed into linear expression by theory of perturbation variation method. The nonlinear natural frequency of shallow conical shells with circular bottom and variable thickness under the fixed boundary conditions is solved. In the first approximate equation, the linear natural frequency of shallow conical shells with variable thickness is obtained. In the third approximate equation, the nonlinear natural frequency of it is obtained. The figures of the characteristic curves of the natural frequency varying with stationary loads, large amplitude, and variable thickness coefficient are plotted. A valuable reference is given for dynamic engineering.

Changes in the natural frequency of a ferromagnetic rod in a magnetic field due to magnetoelastic interaction

Based on the magnetoelastic generalized variational principle and Hamilton＇s principle, a dynamic theoretical model characterizing the magnetoelastic interaction of a soft ferromagnetic medium in an applied magnetic field is developed in this paper. From the variational manipulation of magnetic scale potential and elastic displacement, all the fundamental equations for the magnetic field and mechanical deformation, as well as the magnetic body force and magnetic traction for describing magnetoelastic interaction are derived. The theoretical model is applied to a ferromagnetic rod vibrating in an applied magnetic field using a perturbation technique and the Galerkin method. The results show that the magnetic field will change the natural frequencies of the ferromagnetic rod by causing a decrease with the bending motion along the applied magnetic field where the magnetoelastic buckling will take place, and by causing an increase when the bending motion of the rod is perpendicular to the field. The prediction by the mode presented in this paper qualitatively agrees with the natural frequency changes of the ferromagnetic rod observed in the experiment.