Droughts have serious and widespread impacts on crop production with substantial economic losses. The frequency and severity of drought events may increase in the future due to climate change. We have developed three ...Droughts have serious and widespread impacts on crop production with substantial economic losses. The frequency and severity of drought events may increase in the future due to climate change. We have developed three meteorological drought scenarios for Austria in the period 2008-2040. The scenarios are defined based on a dry day index which is combined with bootstrapping from an observed daily weather dataset of the period 1975-2007. The severity of long-term drought scenarios is characterized by lower annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as more significant temperature increases compared to the observations. The long-term impacts of the drought scenarios on Austrian crop production have been analyzed with the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Our simulation outputs show that—for areas with historical mean annual precipitation sums below 850 mm— already slight increases in dryness result in significantly lower crop yields i.e. depending on the drought severity, between 0.6% and 0.9% decreases in mean annual dry matter crop yields per 1.0% decrease in mean annual precipitation sums. The EPIC results of more severe droughts show that spring and summer precipitation may become a limiting factor in crop production even in regions with historical abundant precipitation.展开更多
A rare local rainstorm weather in the midsummer rainy weather process appeared in the northwest of Hubei Province during July 8-13,2009.The circulation situation,the contributions of dynamic,thermal force and water va...A rare local rainstorm weather in the midsummer rainy weather process appeared in the northwest of Hubei Province during July 8-13,2009.The circulation situation,the contributions of dynamic,thermal force and water vapor to this strong precipitation in this process were discussed.The results showed that the cold air which was brought by Lake Balkis cold vortex was the trigger mechanism of local rainstorm,and Lake Baikal low pressure provided the foreign dynamic for the adjustment of East Asia circulation.When the rainstorm occurred,the divergence in the divergence field had the strong 'pumping effect' in the high altitude.The warm wet airflow in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea was the water vapor source of rainstorm.The falling zone of rainstorm appeared in the front of energy frontal zone,and the axis line in the top of high-energy tongue deviated to the side of cold air.Q vector divergence and the negative value zone of water vapor helicity had the important indication effect for the short-term forecast of local rainstorm.展开更多
文摘Droughts have serious and widespread impacts on crop production with substantial economic losses. The frequency and severity of drought events may increase in the future due to climate change. We have developed three meteorological drought scenarios for Austria in the period 2008-2040. The scenarios are defined based on a dry day index which is combined with bootstrapping from an observed daily weather dataset of the period 1975-2007. The severity of long-term drought scenarios is characterized by lower annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as more significant temperature increases compared to the observations. The long-term impacts of the drought scenarios on Austrian crop production have been analyzed with the biophysical process model EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate). Our simulation outputs show that—for areas with historical mean annual precipitation sums below 850 mm— already slight increases in dryness result in significantly lower crop yields i.e. depending on the drought severity, between 0.6% and 0.9% decreases in mean annual dry matter crop yields per 1.0% decrease in mean annual precipitation sums. The EPIC results of more severe droughts show that spring and summer precipitation may become a limiting factor in crop production even in regions with historical abundant precipitation.
基金Supported by The Special Project of National Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(GYHY200806002)The Key Project of Science and Technology Development Fund of Wuhan Regional Meteorological Center of China Meteorological Administration(QY-Z-200801)
文摘A rare local rainstorm weather in the midsummer rainy weather process appeared in the northwest of Hubei Province during July 8-13,2009.The circulation situation,the contributions of dynamic,thermal force and water vapor to this strong precipitation in this process were discussed.The results showed that the cold air which was brought by Lake Balkis cold vortex was the trigger mechanism of local rainstorm,and Lake Baikal low pressure provided the foreign dynamic for the adjustment of East Asia circulation.When the rainstorm occurred,the divergence in the divergence field had the strong 'pumping effect' in the high altitude.The warm wet airflow in the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea was the water vapor source of rainstorm.The falling zone of rainstorm appeared in the front of energy frontal zone,and the axis line in the top of high-energy tongue deviated to the side of cold air.Q vector divergence and the negative value zone of water vapor helicity had the important indication effect for the short-term forecast of local rainstorm.
