The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction i...The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.展开更多
To analyze the impact of the“two-child policy”on the population size and structure,first of all,the birth rate,the ratio of men and women,and the ratio of urban and rural population are used as indicators.Before and...To analyze the impact of the“two-child policy”on the population size and structure,first of all,the birth rate,the ratio of men and women,and the ratio of urban and rural population are used as indicators.Before and after the dispersion,then establish a PDE model,and compare it with the population predicted by the gray forecast to analyze the mitigation of the ageing of the second child policy;continue to analyze the impact of changes in the population structure on the national economy,and select the male and female ratio and the labor population The urban-rural population ratio is used as an index to establish a multiple regression equation for analysis,and a related regression equation is obtained.Finally,the future marriage problem is analyzed,considering only the difference in the number of men and women entering the marriageable period at the same time.The difference in the number of marriageable populations is analyzed through the difference in the number of men and women born at birth,focusing on a dynamic perspective.展开更多
Taking data from the China Fertility Survey 2017 for nine provinces in southwestern and south-central China,we calculated differences in C-section rates among women of different ages,and with different types of hukou ...Taking data from the China Fertility Survey 2017 for nine provinces in southwestern and south-central China,we calculated differences in C-section rates among women of different ages,and with different types of hukou and different levels of educa-tion.We used the Cox proportional hazards model and a binary logistic regression method to examine the impact of C-section at the first birth on the intention of hav-ing a second child and actually giving birth to a second child under the Universal Two-child Policy.This study comes to the following conclusions:(1)the C-section rate is generally high among women,especially among those who are older,have non-agricultural hukou,or have a junior college or above education level;(2)sim-ilar to the research findings of scholars in other countries,women having C-sec-tion at first birth are 16-20%less likely to have a second child than women having no C-section at first birth;and(3)women having C-section at first birth are less inclined to have a second child.展开更多
文摘The 13 th Five-Year Plan(2016─2020), with the balanced development of population being the core element, is crucial for China. The superimposed effect of an aging population and low birthrate leading to a reduction in the labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population, implying that China's population policy must be adjusted. This paper argues that a gradual relaxation of the family-planning policy adjustments accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction. The universal second-child policy is the logical results of the adjustment and improvement of China's family-planning policy, and is designed to bring about positive effects on future demographic and economic development, particularly in sustaining the long term balanced development of China's population, easing the marriage squeeze, extending the demographic dividend, and delaying the population aging process. China needs to develop and improve support and governance systems for fully implementing the universal second-child policy, realizing the policy transition from rewarding one-child families to population security and the modern transition of governance systems and capacity to a universal second-child policy.
文摘To analyze the impact of the“two-child policy”on the population size and structure,first of all,the birth rate,the ratio of men and women,and the ratio of urban and rural population are used as indicators.Before and after the dispersion,then establish a PDE model,and compare it with the population predicted by the gray forecast to analyze the mitigation of the ageing of the second child policy;continue to analyze the impact of changes in the population structure on the national economy,and select the male and female ratio and the labor population The urban-rural population ratio is used as an index to establish a multiple regression equation for analysis,and a related regression equation is obtained.Finally,the future marriage problem is analyzed,considering only the difference in the number of men and women entering the marriageable period at the same time.The difference in the number of marriageable populations is analyzed through the difference in the number of men and women born at birth,focusing on a dynamic perspective.
文摘Taking data from the China Fertility Survey 2017 for nine provinces in southwestern and south-central China,we calculated differences in C-section rates among women of different ages,and with different types of hukou and different levels of educa-tion.We used the Cox proportional hazards model and a binary logistic regression method to examine the impact of C-section at the first birth on the intention of hav-ing a second child and actually giving birth to a second child under the Universal Two-child Policy.This study comes to the following conclusions:(1)the C-section rate is generally high among women,especially among those who are older,have non-agricultural hukou,or have a junior college or above education level;(2)sim-ilar to the research findings of scholars in other countries,women having C-sec-tion at first birth are 16-20%less likely to have a second child than women having no C-section at first birth;and(3)women having C-section at first birth are less inclined to have a second child.
