Tackling China’s Pension Fund Payment Crisis:Will the “Two-Child Policy” Be the Answer?——An example with the basic pension insurance program for urban employees

Based on the reality that 29 Chinese provinces have already implemented the policy allowing a couple to raise a second child if either parent is an only child, this paper provides an empirical study on the effect of this policy on the financial status of the social pooling fund of basic pension insurance for urban employees. Our study suggests the followings. First, under the previous unchanged family planning policy, current deficits and cumulative deficits will occur in the social pooling fund in the year 2047 and 2063 respectively. Second, if lO% to 50% of qualified couples choose to raise a second child, the financial status of the social pooling fund will improve; relative to the previous unchanged family planning policy, the contribution ratio can decrease from 20% to the range between 18.06% and 19.57% without causing any changes to the original financial status of income and expenditure. Third, if the percentage of couples choosing to raise a second child rises to 60% to 100%, the contribution ratio can even decrease to the range between 16.55% and 17. 7% without causing any changes to the financial status as under the previous unchanged family planning policy. The above conclusions have all passed the sensitivity test. Therefore, the ＂two-child policy＂ for qualified couples is favorable to alleviating the payment pressures of pension insurance but the policy effectiveness is subject to fertility desire and the intensity of government implementation.

Seizures Related to Two-child Policy:A Case Report

From 1979 to 2012,the Chinese government implemented the one-child policy to control population growth.In 2013,families in which either parent was the only one child were allowed to apply for a second child.In 2016,China’s universal two-child policy was finally imposed.As such,many children who had always been the center of their family’s universe due to the unique family structure stemming from the one-child policy era became elder siblings during their adolescence.We report a case of a 9-year-old girl who developed seizures after the birth of her younger sister.The combination of clinical observation,laboratory examinations,and video-electroencephalography was not enough to make a confident diagnosis of epilepsy initially.Given her patient history and follow-up investigation,we speculated the two-child policy was related to her seizures.To our knowledge,this is the first report of seizures strongly related to the two-child policy.

The Influence of the Two-child Policy on Urbanization in China

Family planning has been China's basic national policy since 1980, but it changed from a onechild policy to a two-child policy at the end of 2015 as which will further stimulate the rapid growth of China's population and have a profound impact on the population structure and land use in China. Based on the forecast of total population change in national and provincial dimensions after the two -child policy, the paper forecasted the spatial pattern of China's population and provincial differentiation over the next 15 years, and discussed the far-reaching impact on the future urban and rural land use and planning. Conclusions as follows: the two-child policy will achieve rapid population growth in the next 5 years, then there will be a stable growth phase;the peak of China's population increase will occur in 2030 with a total population of about 1.55 billion people, which will continue the regional differentiation of urbanization, and urbanization level in southeastern region will remain generally higher than that of the northwest. In addition, population growth brings new demands in urban and rural construction land, therefore, more intensive use of land will be the inevitable choice for the future development for China.

Study on the Influence of the the Universal Two-childPolicy on China＇s Pension Payment

In the face of the continuous decline in the birth rate and the aging of the peak of aging, following the implementation of the ＂Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Comprehensively Deepening the Reform of Some Major Issues＂ adopted by the Filth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on November 15, 2013, the party is the only child. Female couples can have a policy of giving birth to two children. On October 29, 2015, China introduced the ＂two-child policy＂, completely replacing the ＂one-child policy＂ that has been implemented in China for more than 30 years. The ＂two-child comprehensive＂ can alleviate the unfavorable population trend that plagues China＇s social security system to a certain extent. Optimize the age structure of the population and increase the supply of labor. However, for a long time, the financial distress and management dilemma faced by China＇s pension payment still exist, and the loose population birth policy will have a great impact on reducing pension payment, and will gradually appear in the policy implementation. This article combines the ＂comprehensive two-child＂ policy, focusing on the role of the new population birth policy to alleviate the pressure on China＇s pension.

A Study of the Universal Two-child Policy’s Impact on China’s Future Population

The most essential step in adjusting and improving the childbearing policy, the universal two-child policy will produce far-reaching impacts on the future development of China’s population. With its implementation, the country’s total population will peak later, the underage population and its proportion will increase substantially, the working-age population will experience a slower decline, and the aging of China’s population will be eased. However, the drop in the proportion of working-age people over the last 15 years has expedited the reduction of the demographic dividend, the elderly population will remain unaffected over the next 60 years, the aging of the population will continue to deepen, and at the same time, the increased child dependency burden will expand the overall dependency ratio.

The employment impact analysis of Full-scale two-child policy for career women

With the development of China＇s childbearing policy changes in recent years, it causes effects to women＇s social life. Based on the questionnaire survey of influencing factors about professional women＇s intention of second child birth and with two child policy was carry out as the background, summed up the three major factors influencing the working women fertility fertility intention, emotional factors and external security. At the same time using the structural equation model, studies the impact of the influence factors to the career development of working women. The conclusion is that childbearing willing has little effects on the professional women in Shanghai, emotional factors and external security has certain impact on women＇ s employment.

Effects of the New Two-child Policy On Family Old-age Security

This paper analyzes the current situation of the aging population and low fertility rate.lt is found that the aging process is accelerated, the population growth potential is decreased, and the elderly dependency ratio is higher.Secondly, this paper mainly analyzes the impact of the new two-child policy on family pension security from three aspects： population policy, family support and social security.There are two aspects of the effects, the positive effects are：improve fertility, reduce elderly dependency ratio, relieve population aging,enhance the family development： the negative effects are： tremendous pressure on public resources, further inequality in birth right, heavy economic pressure on the family.At last. this paper puts forward the constructive countermeasures against the problems of the policy and the was out of the family old-age security.

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China.This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population,with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future.This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population,and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model.Drawing upon the results of these two predictions,the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively.Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission,the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side.The findings are as follows:after implementing the universal two-child policy,China's grain,energy consumption,domestic water demand,and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces.To meet the needs arising from future population growth,food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future,while relying more on imports.Stability of the water supply needs to be improved,especially in Beijing,Henan,Jiangsu,Qinghai,and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger.Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.

Impact of openness, economic policy reform and regional shocks on trade and growth of Thailand： An econometric study

Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.

Trade Interests in Foreign Policy of the Global South

In this research work, the author focuses on the analysis of the trade interests in foreign policy of the Global South. What indicates the importance and innovativeness of the research is the presentation of the new models of the foreign trade policy and trade interests of Global South. First of all, it must underline that in the new theoretical terms in the demand for trade policy very important is factor specificity. The low specificity of factors means that factor returns are equalized throughout a region＇s economy. Moreover, some factors are stuck in their present uses; therefore, factor returns are not equalized throughout a region＇s economy, but are industry specific. The main objective of the research task is to give a comprehensive analysis of the models of foreign trade policy, trade interests indicated by export orientation and import sensitivity, protectionistic pressures in different political system and different types of authoritarian regimes of Global South, the level of protectionistic pressures, the rise of qualitatively new politics in North-South relations like bilateral tendencies. It should be stressed that free trade in itself is not responsible for economic growth, but more significant are the determining macroeconomic stability and increasing investment of Global South.

新文科建设背景下我国公共管理学科建设政策话语、核心价值与实践路径

新文科建设背景下我国公共管理学科建设和专业人才培养要更好地服务于国家战略和全球公共治理潮流,适应新时代科技革新要求和高等教育培养高素质综合人才的需要。以新文科建设背景为出发点,解释公共管理学科发展轨迹,分析梳理公共管理学科发展的逻辑框架并展望学科发展和实践路径。立足当前新文科建设背景下公共管理发展的现实境遇,探寻其核心价值导向,构建学科发展空间,拓宽学科建设结构层次,努力构建交叉融合的学科建设体系,积极促进我国公共管理学科的独特性、综合性、应用性。

延安时期中国共产党妇女政策的变化与调整

延安初期,深具“妇女主义”倾向的妇女解放实践,在伸张广大妇女权益的同时,深刻改变了传统乡村的社会结构,拖曳旧有的家庭伦理和社会道德秩序陷入剧烈震荡之中,致使革命阶级内部出现裂隙。伴随着整风运动的开展,中国共产党妇女工作中的“妇女主义”倾向得以根本扭转。此外,基于对严峻的抗战形势和边区财政经济困难的考量,以及组织妇女参加生产活动的多重价值的认知,中国共产党适时调整策略,作别“妇女主义”的狭隘视角,转而探寻在发展生产的框架内实现妇女解放的路径。以“四三决定”颁布为标志,中国共产党妇女政策出现了明显转向,为新时代新征程做好妇女工作,促进妇女事业高质量发展提供了弥足珍贵的经验借鉴。

贸易政策不确定性如何影响出口企业经营风险?

在“逆全球化”趋势加剧及贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,我国政策当局应考虑贸易政策的意外调整对于出口企业的风险冲击。利用中国工业企业与海关贸易匹配数据,对贸易政策不确定性与出口企业经营风险之间的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明:贸易政策不确定性会显著增大出口企业经营风险,这一结果在进行了一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析发现:商业信用紧缩、生产成本上升以及融资约束加剧是上述影响的作用渠道;同时,金融市场化与贸易自由化能够显著调节两者间的正向关系。异质性分析发现:贸易政策不确定性对于进行一般贸易、贸易依存度较高以及出口目的地非贸易协定国的出口企业的风险冲击更大。基于此,我国政府部门应进一步夯实“稳外贸”与“防风险”工作,同时积极推进金融市场化与贸易自由化进程。

新文科背景下基于“模块化-情景化”的涉农高校公共政策学课程教学改革研究

在新文科建设背景下,涉农高校的公共政策学课程教学需要在价值、知识、技术等方面改革创新,应该立足于涉农高校的办学定位,针对公共政策学课程教学存在的局限性,以解决农村发展实践中的政策问题为导向,重构模块化知识体系,运用信息技术手段开展情景化教学。课程的“模块化—情景化”教学改革既是对新文科要求的有效回应,又有助于培养涉农高校学生分析和解决农村政策问题的能力。

解放战争时期中国共产党对民族资产阶级政策的制定与调适

中国共产党关于中国革命的基本主张,只有付诸人民群众的实践,才能达到改造国家与社会的目的。政策的制定和施行,则是实现两者有机联结的关键环节。在解放战争时期与国民党统治集团的最后斗争中,尤其是在党的工作重心由农村转到城市之后,应该怎样看待民族资产阶级的地位和作用,当时乃至在革命胜利以后,应该对他们实行什么样的政策和策略,这一问题再次被提到中国共产党领导人面前。以毛泽东为核心的中共中央从中国的基本国情出发,坚持新民主主义革命的纲领和总路线,坚持人民民主统一战线的根本方针和原则,在实践中积极进行探索和调适,注意纠正“左”的和右的偏向,不断总结经验,形成了一整套正确对待民族资产阶级的政策体系,并且被载入具有临时宪法地位的《中国人民政治协商会议共同纲领》中。对民族资产阶级政策的确定与积极的实践效应,成为中国共产党强大政治领导力的突出表征之一。

货币政策利率传导机制有效性研究——基于利率市场化背景

我国自2015年以来基本完成了利率市场化改革,利率作为货币政策传导的核心中介变量,正逐步发挥引导资金市场化流转与配置于实体经济的作用。同时,我国正在全面推进数量型货币政策向价格型货币政策转变,利率水平变动与货币政策传导有效性研究具有较强的理论价值与积极的现实意义。通过向量自回归(VAR)模型,选取2015年1月至2022年6月的LPR、CPI以及金融结构等数据,对货币政策利率传导机制有效性进行全面分析,实证研究发现政策利率对银行间货币市场利率传导较为通畅,我国通过货币政策实施,能够较好地通过利率渠道传导至实体经济,支持经济高质量发展。

十八军研究室的设立及其历史贡献

十八军研究室,是1950年十八军进藏时为解放西藏特设的决策机构,是当时全国绝无仅有的一个设在军级单位的研究室,它担负了调研康藏地区基本情况、为解放西藏出谋划策的重要任务,为当时的政治和军事决策提供了准确的信息保障和重要的决策建议。该机构虽然仅存7个多月,但为西藏和平解放作出了巨大贡献。在研究室存在期间,其客观分析了当时西藏社会基本情况和西藏上层人士的特点和作用,为中国共产党团结西藏上层人士提供了重要决策思路;提出的“和平解放,暂维原状”思路,为“西藏模式”提供了思想资源和路径参考。今天,研究本段历史及其决策模式,可为新时代党的西藏工作提供一定参鉴。

大国战略竞争背景下美国海外基础设施建设的逻辑

海外基础设施建设日益成为美国外交政策的优先议程。特朗普政府时期即通过推进“印太”基础设施合作、启动“美洲增长倡议”和落实“繁荣非洲倡议”等举措,加强全球基础设施建设。拜登政府执政以来延续、推进了这一对外政策。2021年和2022年,拜登政府先后在七国集团峰会上提出B3W倡议和PGII倡议,旨在进一步拓展对发展中国家基础设施投资。美国海外基础设施建设善用在私人资本、联盟体系以及先进技术上的比较优势,体现出了战略性、整体性和全局性。美国政府积极参与海外基础设施建设竞争的根本动因是希望通过提供国际公共产品来获取经济、政治以及制度利益,以维护其自由霸权秩序。在大国战略竞争时代,中美海外基建竞争的频度和强度有可能进一步加剧。展望未来,尽管蓝图宏大,美国海外基础设施建设仍面临公共融资困境和联盟困境。

两性、家庭与政权建设:陕甘宁边区婚姻政策的变革(1939—1944)

全面抗战背景下,解放妇女与改造家庭被陕甘宁边区政府当作一项重要的政治目标提上具体政策制定日程,成为民主建设边区历程的必需环节,主要体现在婚姻条例的制定和出台上。从1939年到1944年,理念先进的婚姻政策变革下婚姻纠纷案件频发,买卖婚姻的界定、抗属离婚案的纠葛、基层执法难等呈现出复杂的社会矛盾样态,彰显了崭新的政权建设、干部队伍与根深蒂固的乡村传统婚俗、性别观念与基层秩序之间的矛盾与张力。若要深刻理解党对陕甘宁边区婚姻家庭改造的重视原因、婚姻政策变革背后的内生逻辑,离不开领悟妇女与家庭之关系对于边区政权建设、大生产运动、统战工作的意义。

利率市场化视角下货币政策对银行流动性创造的影响——基于银行风险承担的中介效应检验

运用1997-2015年中国186家银行的非平衡面板数据,实证检验银行风险承担在货币政策影响银行流动性创造过程中所发挥的中介效应。结果发现:货币政策通过影响银行风险承担而对银行流动性创造产生影响,即银行风险承担在货币政策影响银行流动性创造的过程中起到了中介作用。此外,货币政策通过影响银行风险承担对银行表内流动性创造和表外流动性创造都会产生影响。采用四种货币政策度量指标、两种银行流动性创造度量指标和两种银行风险承担度量指标的稳健性检验均支持了以上结论。进一步的实证研究表明:货币政策对银行风险承担和银行流动性创造的作用都会受到利率市场化水平的影响,即随着利率市场化水平的提升,货币政策对银行风险承担的影响会有所减弱,价格型货币政策对银行流动性创造的影响也会降低。