Providing high-quality economic forecasts is an important responsibility of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) in maintaining world financial and economic stability. However, errors are inevitable in IMF economic fo...Providing high-quality economic forecasts is an important responsibility of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) in maintaining world financial and economic stability. However, errors are inevitable in IMF economic forecasts for its member countries. Based on forecast method and information, and political factor, this paper creates a political economics framework for analyzing the IMF's forecast errors, and tests the effects of various factors on the IMF's forecasts using the panel data analysis method. According to our findings, if a country receives IMF loans and shares a similar vote with the United States at the UN General Assembly, it will more likely receive an optimistic forecast by the IMF. Meanwhile, member countries' data availability and IMF forecast errors for major economies may also affect forecast on a country. Therefore, this paper proposes recommendations on further improving the IMF's forecast quality by creating more independent forecast procedures and enhancing forecast data quality and forecast accuracy.展开更多
文摘Providing high-quality economic forecasts is an important responsibility of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) in maintaining world financial and economic stability. However, errors are inevitable in IMF economic forecasts for its member countries. Based on forecast method and information, and political factor, this paper creates a political economics framework for analyzing the IMF's forecast errors, and tests the effects of various factors on the IMF's forecasts using the panel data analysis method. According to our findings, if a country receives IMF loans and shares a similar vote with the United States at the UN General Assembly, it will more likely receive an optimistic forecast by the IMF. Meanwhile, member countries' data availability and IMF forecast errors for major economies may also affect forecast on a country. Therefore, this paper proposes recommendations on further improving the IMF's forecast quality by creating more independent forecast procedures and enhancing forecast data quality and forecast accuracy.
