The incorporation of disruptive innovations into the transportation industry will inevitably cause major upheavals in the transportation sector.However,existing research lacks systematic theories and methodologies to ...The incorporation of disruptive innovations into the transportation industry will inevitably cause major upheavals in the transportation sector.However,existing research lacks systematic theories and methodologies to represent the underlying characteristics of future urban transport systems.Furthermore,emerging modes in urban mobility have not been sufficiently studied.The National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)officially approved the Basic Science Center project titled“Future Urban Transport Management”in 2022.The project members include leading scientists and engineers from Beijing Jiaotong University,Beihang University,and Beijing Transport Institute.Based on a wide range of previous projects by the consortium on urban mobility and sustainable cities,this project will encompass transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research to explore critical issues affecting future urban traffic management.It aims to develop fundamental theories and methods based on social and technological developments in the near future and explores innovative solutions to implement alongside these emerging developments in urban mobility.展开更多
In the era of emerging technologies, the transportation system is witnessing the introduction of innovative mobility services, such as autonomous vehicles, which possess unique service features that cannot be seen fro...In the era of emerging technologies, the transportation system is witnessing the introduction of innovative mobility services, such as autonomous vehicles, which possess unique service features that cannot be seen from conventional travel modes. To facilitate the understanding of the behavioral impacts and the adoption of innovative mobilities, a novel binary weibit model with an oddball alternative (BW-O) is developed for the binary choice between conventional and emerging mobilities. The BW-O model explicitly considers the unprecedented (or unique) service features of emerging travel modes while retaining the closed-form choice probability. This study empirically illustrates the application of the BW-O model in the mode choice context. The desirable properties of the BW-O model compared to the existing binary choice models are discussed both theoretically and empirically. In the binary mode choice problem with an emerging travel mode, the unique service features of the emerging mode can lead to the “oddball” effect and “superstar” effect, which play a critical role in the travel behavior and mode adoption. The BW-O model inherently captures both effects by considering a higher perception variance for the emerging mode and asymmetric choice probabilities between different modes. Thus, as revealed by the empirical results, the BW-O model outperforms the basic binary weibit model in terms of both model fit and predictive power. The developed BW-O model is not only applicable to the mode choice problem in transportation systems, but also opens a door for more general class-imbalanced binary choice contexts where an alternative has additional attractiveness and asymmetric choice probability.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72288101).
文摘The incorporation of disruptive innovations into the transportation industry will inevitably cause major upheavals in the transportation sector.However,existing research lacks systematic theories and methodologies to represent the underlying characteristics of future urban transport systems.Furthermore,emerging modes in urban mobility have not been sufficiently studied.The National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)officially approved the Basic Science Center project titled“Future Urban Transport Management”in 2022.The project members include leading scientists and engineers from Beijing Jiaotong University,Beihang University,and Beijing Transport Institute.Based on a wide range of previous projects by the consortium on urban mobility and sustainable cities,this project will encompass transdisciplinary and interdisciplinary research to explore critical issues affecting future urban traffic management.It aims to develop fundamental theories and methods based on social and technological developments in the near future and explores innovative solutions to implement alongside these emerging developments in urban mobility.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071174)Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region(PolyU 15222221 and PolyU 15221922)Smart Cities Research Institute(CDA9)and the Research Institute of Land and Space(1-CD7N)at the Hong Kong Polytechnic University,and the Chiang Mai University in Thailand.
文摘In the era of emerging technologies, the transportation system is witnessing the introduction of innovative mobility services, such as autonomous vehicles, which possess unique service features that cannot be seen from conventional travel modes. To facilitate the understanding of the behavioral impacts and the adoption of innovative mobilities, a novel binary weibit model with an oddball alternative (BW-O) is developed for the binary choice between conventional and emerging mobilities. The BW-O model explicitly considers the unprecedented (or unique) service features of emerging travel modes while retaining the closed-form choice probability. This study empirically illustrates the application of the BW-O model in the mode choice context. The desirable properties of the BW-O model compared to the existing binary choice models are discussed both theoretically and empirically. In the binary mode choice problem with an emerging travel mode, the unique service features of the emerging mode can lead to the “oddball” effect and “superstar” effect, which play a critical role in the travel behavior and mode adoption. The BW-O model inherently captures both effects by considering a higher perception variance for the emerging mode and asymmetric choice probabilities between different modes. Thus, as revealed by the empirical results, the BW-O model outperforms the basic binary weibit model in terms of both model fit and predictive power. The developed BW-O model is not only applicable to the mode choice problem in transportation systems, but also opens a door for more general class-imbalanced binary choice contexts where an alternative has additional attractiveness and asymmetric choice probability.
