This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on ...This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on qualitative methods with participative experts and stakeholders, the strategic prospective allows designing different future scenarios and planning the transformation of a current situation into a desired future. To design sustainable futures, this paper proposes a four-stage methodology： understanding the context; strategy visualization; design of alternative scenarios and definition of desired future; and planning its construction. This methodology makes evident the possibility of seeking alternative scenarios for a sustainable future in different scopes, particularly, in two prospective applications： biodiversity conservation and water treatment. The outcomes of the application have allowed proposing strategies and policies for the management of environmental goods, such as environmental services and water reuse, with a long-time outlook based on a collective desired future.展开更多
文摘This paper shows prospective methodology as a tool to generate strategic knowledge for designing sustainable futures. The strategic prospective is a social science discipline dedicated to explore the future. Based on qualitative methods with participative experts and stakeholders, the strategic prospective allows designing different future scenarios and planning the transformation of a current situation into a desired future. To design sustainable futures, this paper proposes a four-stage methodology： understanding the context; strategy visualization; design of alternative scenarios and definition of desired future; and planning its construction. This methodology makes evident the possibility of seeking alternative scenarios for a sustainable future in different scopes, particularly, in two prospective applications： biodiversity conservation and water treatment. The outcomes of the application have allowed proposing strategies and policies for the management of environmental goods, such as environmental services and water reuse, with a long-time outlook based on a collective desired future.
