In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybde...In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.展开更多
Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projec...Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.展开更多
This paper views knowledge management （KM） investment from the angle of real options, and demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to KM investment analysis. First, KM project has characteristics of unc...This paper views knowledge management （KM） investment from the angle of real options, and demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to KM investment analysis. First, KM project has characteristics of uncertainty, irreversibility and choice of timing, which suggests that we can appraise KM investment by real options theory. Second, the paper analyses corresponding states of real options in KM and finance options. Then, this paper sheds light on the way to the application of binomial pricing method to KM investment model, which includes modeling and conducting KM options. Finally, different results are shown of using DCF method and binomial model of option evaluation via a case.展开更多
文摘In order to effectively avoid the defects of a traditional discounted cash flow method, a trinomial tree pricing model of the real option is improved and used to forecast the investment price of mining. Taking Molybdenum ore as an example, a theoretical model for the hurdle price under the optimal investment timing is constructed. Based on the example data, the op- tion price model is simulated. By the model, mine investment price can be computed and forecast effectively. According to the characteristics of mine investment, cut-off grade, reserve estimation and mine life in different price also can be quantified. The result shows that it is reliable and practical to enhance the accuracy for mining investment decision.
基金supported from the National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2011ZX05030
文摘Deepwater oil and gas projects embody high risks from geology and engineering aspects, which exert substantial influence on project valuation. But the uncer- tainties may be converted to additional value to the projects in the case of flexible management. Given the flexibility of project management, this paper extends the classical real options model to a multi-factor model which contains oil price, geology, and engineering uncertainties. It then gives an application example of the new model to evaluate deepwater oil and gas projects with a numerical analytical method. Compared with other methods and models, this multi-factor real options model contains more project information. It reflects the potential value deriving not only from oil price variation but also from geology and engi- neering uncertainties, which provides more accurate and reliable valuation information for decision makers.
基金This paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （NSFC） and Ph.D. Research Fund.
文摘This paper views knowledge management （KM） investment from the angle of real options, and demonstrates the utility of the real options approach to KM investment analysis. First, KM project has characteristics of uncertainty, irreversibility and choice of timing, which suggests that we can appraise KM investment by real options theory. Second, the paper analyses corresponding states of real options in KM and finance options. Then, this paper sheds light on the way to the application of binomial pricing method to KM investment model, which includes modeling and conducting KM options. Finally, different results are shown of using DCF method and binomial model of option evaluation via a case.
