APPLICATION OF MECHANICAL RELIABILITY PREDICATION BASED ON FUZZY THEORY

Mechanical reliability prediction (MRP) is an important task of mechanical reliability design. In the initial design stage (IDS), the lack of reliability data and some fuzzy characteristics of MRP make this work hardness. Because fuzzy synthetical assessment (FSA) can well utilize expert′s experience and fuzzy data, it is used to assess the influence factors of reliability. On the basis of the assessed results, the predicted value of reliability is inferred by the fuzzy inference system (FIS). This approach particularly suits to predict the reliability of complex machinery (including other products) in IDS, so that it can remedy some defects of the existing methods. An example is discussed to interpret how to utilize it.

Forecasting of Software Reliability Using Neighborhood Fuzzy Particle Swarm Optimization Based Novel Neural Network

This paper proposes an artificial neural network(ANN) based software reliability model trained by novel particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm for enhanced forecasting of the reliability of software. The proposed ANN is developed considering the fault generation phenomenon during software testing with the fault complexity of different levels. We demonstrate the proposed model considering three types of faults residing in the software. We propose a neighborhood based fuzzy PSO algorithm for competent learning of the proposed ANN using software failure data. Fitting and prediction performances of the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model are compared with the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and existing ANN based software reliability models in the literature through three real software failure data sets. We also compare the performance of the proposed PSO algorithm with the standard PSO algorithm through learning of the proposed ANN. Statistical analysis shows that the neighborhood fuzzy PSO based proposed neural network model has comparatively better fitting and predictive ability than the standard PSO based proposed neural network model and other ANN based software reliability models. Faster release of software is achievable by applying the proposed PSO based neural network model during the testing period.

Corrosion Fatigue Life Prediction of Aircraft Structure Based on Fuzzy Reliability Approach

Material performance of LY12CZ aluminum is greatly degraded because of corrosion and corrosion fatigue, which severely affect the integrity and safety of aircraft structure, especially those of lbe navy aircraft structure. The corrosion and corrosion fatigue failure process of aircraft structure are directly concerned with many factors, such as load, material characteristics, corrosive environment and so on. The damage mechanism is very complicated, and there are both randomness and fuzziness in the failure process. With consideration of the limitation of those conventional probabilistic approaches for prediction of corrosion fatigue life of aircraft structure at present, and based on the operational load spectrum obtained through investigating service status of the aircraft in naval aviation force, a fuzzy reliability approach is proposed, which is more reasonable and closer to the fact. The effects of the pit aspect ratio, the crack aspect ratio and all fuzzy factors on corrosion fatigue life of aircraft structure are discussed. The results demonstrate that the approach can be applied to predict the corrosion fatigue life of aircraft structure.

FUZZY RELIABILITY-BASED OPTIMUM DESIGN OF LAMINATED COMPOSITES

In conventional reliability-based optimum design of structures, the reliability is computed based on the probability assumption, and the design objective and constraint are considered as deterministic ones. In many cases, however, there exist some fuzzy factors in the design objective and constraint functions. In this paper, the fuzzy reliability and fuzzy constraint are introduced to establish the fuzzy reliability-based optimum model for laminated composites. The examples show that the method developed in this paper can give consideration to both the reliability demand and the economic aspect of a structure. Since the fuzzy reliability-based optimum design is a ＇soft＇ design, the present results provide a new methodology for the effective evaluation of structural reliability and bring us an alternative optimum design idea.

Fuzzy Fatigue Reliability Analysis of Offshore Platforms in Ice-Infested Waters

The calculation of fatigue stress ranges due to random waves and ice loads on offshore structures is discussed, and the corresponding accumulative fatigue damages of the structural members are evaluated. To evaluate the fatigue damage to the structures more accurately, the Miner rule is modified considering the fuzziness of the concerned parameters, and a new model for fuzzy fatigue reliability analysis of offshore structures members is developed. Furthermore, an assessment method for predicting the dynamics of the fuzzy fatigue reliability of structural members is provided.

General Response Surface Reliability Analysis for Fuzzy-Random Uncertainty both in Basic Variables and in State Variables

A general response surface（RS） method is presented for reliability analysis of complex structure/mechanism with fuzzy-random uncertainty both in basic variables and in failure state variables. On the basis of equivalent transformation from fuzzy basic variable to random basic variable, the fuzziness and randomness in the basic variables are considered simultaneously in the presented general RS method. Once the fuzzy basic variables are transformed into the random basic variables, the conventional RS method is employed to establish the general RS for the complex structure/mechanism with implicit limit state equation by finite element numerical simulation. Furthermore, the general failure probability is defined according to the probability formula for fuzzy-random event by taking the fuzziness and randomness in the failure-safety state into consideration, and an appropriate fuzzy operator is adopted to calculate the general failure probability for the complex structure/mechanism with multiple implicit failure modes. Finally, a general reliability analysis of an elastic linkage mechanism is introduced to illustrate the present method.

Time-Variant Reliability-Based Multi-Objective Fuzzy Design Optimization for Anti-Roll Torsion Bar of EMU

Although various types of anti-roll torsion bars have been developed to inhibit excessive roll angle of the electric multiple unit(EMU)car body,it is critical to ensure the reliability of structural design due to the complexity of the problems involving time and uncertainties.To address this issue,amulti-objective fuzzy design optimization model is constructed considering time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints for the anti-roll torsion bar.A hybrid optimization strategy combining the design of experiment(DoE)sampling and non-linear programming by quadratic lagrangian(NLPQL)is presented to deal with the design optimization model.To characterize the effect of time on the structural performance of the torsion bar,the continuous-time model combined with Ito lemma is proposed to establish the time-variant stiffness and strength reliability constraints.Fuzzy mathematics is employed to conduct uncertainty quantification for the design parameters of the torsion bar.A physical programming approach is used to improve the designer’s preference and to make the optimization results more consistent with engineering practices.Moreover,the effectiveness of the proposed method has been validated by comparing with current methods in a practical engineering case.

CALCULATION OF FUZZY RELIABILITY IN THE CASE OF RANDOM STRESS AND FUZZY FATIGUE STRENGTH

The fuzzy sets theory is introduced into the fatigue reliability analysis. The concepts of maximizing set and minimizing set are developed to decide the ordering value of each fuzzy number, and these values can be used to determine the order of the fuzzy numbers. On the basis of the works mentioned above, the membership function defining the fuzzy safety event can be calculated, and then the fuzzy reliability in the case of stress and fuzzy fatigue strength is deduced. An example is given to illustrate the method.

An Evaluation of the Reliability of Complex Systems Using Shadowed Sets and Fuzzy Lifetime Data

In this paper, we consider the problem of the evaluation of system reliability using statistical data obtained from reliability tests of its elements, in which the lifetimes of elements are described using an exponential distribution. We assume that this lifetime data may be reported imprecisely and that this lack of precision may be described using fuzzy sets. As the direct application of the fuzzy sets methodology leads in this case to very complicated and time consuming calculations, we propose simple approximations of fuzzy numbers using shadowed sets introduced by Pedrycz （1998）. The proposed methodology may be simply extended to the case of general lifetime probability distributions.

Fuzzy Reliability Analysis for Seabed Oil Gas Pipeline Networks Under Earthquakes

The seabed oil gas pipeline network is simplified to a network with stochastic edge weight by means of the fuzzy graphics theory. With the help of network analysis, fuzzy mathematics, and stochastic theory, the problem of reliability analysis for the seabed oil gas pipeline network under earthquakes is transformed into the calculation of the transitive closure of fuzzy matrix of the stochastic fuzzy network. In classical network reliability analysis, the node is supposed to be non invalidated; in this paper, this premise is modified by introducing a disposal method which has taken the possible invalidated node into account. A good result is obtained by use of the Monte Carlo simulation analysis.

Multi-Objective Fuzzy Optimum Design Based on Reliability for Offshore Jacket Platforms

In consideration of the fuzzy constraint boundary and through analysis of structural reliability, a model of structural fuzzy optimum design is established based on reliability for offshore jacket platforms. According to the characteristics of offshore jacket platforms, the tolerance coefficient of the constraint boundary is determined with the fuzzy optimization method. The optimum level cut set lambda*, which is the intersection of the fuzzy constraint set and fuzzy objective set, is determined with the bound search method, and then the fuzzy optimum solution to the fuzzy optimization problem is obtained. The central offshore platform SZ36-1 is designed with the fuzzy optimum model based on reliability; the results are compared with those from deterministic optimum design and fuzzy optimum design. The tendency of design variables in the above three methods and its reasons are analyzed. The results of an example show that the fuzzy optimum design based on reliability is stable and reliable.

Fuzzy Random Reliability Analysis of Blocky Rock-Mass in Slopes

Slope stability assessment is a geotechnical problem characterized by many sources of uncertainty. In clas- sical reliability analysis, only the randomness of uncertainties is taken into account but the fuzziness of them is ignored. In this paper, a fuzzy probability approach and a fuzzy JC method are presented for the reliability analysis. The two methods have been applied to stability analysis of a certain slope of permanent ship lock in the Three-Gorges Project. The results obtained from these two methods are basically the same. However, compared with the fuzzy probability means, the fuzzy JC method can reflect the real situation better because it uses a fuzzy-based analysis applied to not only limit state equation but also mechanical parameters.

Fuzzy stochastic generalized reliability studies on embankment systems based on first-order approximation theorem

In order to address the complex uncertainties caused by interfacing between the fuzziness and randomness of the safety problem for embankment engineering projects, and to evaluate the safety of embankment engineering projects more scientifically and reasonably, this study presents the fuzzy logic modeling of the stochastic finite element method （SFEM） based on the harmonious finite element （HFE） technique using a first-order approximation theorem. Fuzzy mathematical models of safety repertories were introduced into the SFEM to analyze the stability of embankments and foundations in order to describe the fuzzy failure procedure for the random safety performance function. The fuzzy models were developed with membership functions with half depressed gamma distribution, half depressed normal distribution, and half depressed echelon distribution. The fuzzy stochastic mathematical algorithm was used to comprehensively study the local failure mechanism of the main embankment section near Jingnan in the Yangtze River in terms of numerical analysis for the probability integration of reliability on the random field affected by three fuzzy factors. The result shows that the middle region of the embankment is the principal zone of concentrated failure due to local fractures. There is also some local shear failure on the embankment crust. This study provides a referential method for solving complex multi-uncertainty problems in engineering safety analysis.

Reliable Memory Feedback Design for a Class of Nonlinear Fuzzy Systems with Time-varying Delay

This paper is concerned with the robust reliable memory controller design for a class of fuzzy uncertain systems with timevarying delay. The system under consideration is more general than those in other existent works. The controller, which is dependent on the magnitudes and derivative of the delay, is proposed in terms of linear matrix inequality （LMI）. The closed-loop system is asymptotically stable for all admissible uncertainties as well as actuator faults. A numerical example is presented for illustration.

Modified fuzzy point estimate method and its application to slope reliability analysis

A slope engineering system is a complex system, in which many uncertaintiesexist, including random uncertainties and fuzzy uncertainties. Traditionally, random uncertaintieswere often considered, while fuzzy uncertainties were ignored. Therefore, fuzzy-random methodsshould he proposed. A fuzzy point estimate method was proposed by Dodagoudar, that is, consideringthe effect of fuzzy-random factors, the fuzzy-random limit state function of slopes is changed torandom interval limit state function by the lambda level cutting, then the moments of the functioncan be obtained by the Rosenblueth's method, and the stability state of slopes can be evaluated bysynthesizing a group of moments. But in Dodagoudar's method, Rosenblueth's state function iscomposed of only two kinds of combinations of parameters rather than 2~n kinds of combinations. So amodified fuzzy point estimate method is proposed by the authors, and it is used in a slopereliability analysis.

Non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory

Randomness and fuzziness are among the attributes of the influential factors for stability assessment of pile foundation. According to these two characteristics, the triangular fuzzy number analysis approach was introduced to determine the probability-distributed function of mechanical parameters. Then the functional function of reliability analysis was constructed based on the study of bearing mechanism of pile foundation, and the way to calculate interval values of the functional function was developed by using improved interval-truncation approach and operation rules of interval numbers. Afterwards, the non-probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis method was applied to assessing the pile foundation, from which a method was presented for non- probabilistic fuzzy reliability analysis of pile foundation stability by interval theory. Finally, the probability distribution curve of non- probabilistic fuzzy reliability indexes of practical pile foundation was concluded. Its failure possibility is 0.91%, which shows that the pile foundation is stable and reliable.

AN ESTIMATION OF FUZZY RELIABILITY OF DISTINCT ELEMENT METHOD IN PREDICTION OF SURFACE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO COAL MINING

The quantitative evaluation of errors involved in a particular numerical modelling is of prime importance for the effectiveness and reliability of the method. Errors in Distinct Element Modelling are generated mainly through three resources as simplification of physical model, determination of parameters and boundary conditions. A measure of errors which represent the degree of numerical solution 'close to true value' is proposed through fuzzy probability in this paper. The main objective of this paper is to estimate the reliability of Distinct Element Method in rock engineering practice by varying the parameters and boundary conditions. The accumulation laws of standard errors induced by improper determination of parameters and boundary conditions are discussed in delails. Furthermore, numerical experiments are given to illustrate the estimation of fuzzy reliability. Example shows that fuzzy reliability falls between 75%-98% when the relative standard errors of input data is under 10 %.

Fuzzy Reliability Analysis of One Paralleling System

In this paper,we analyze the fuzzy reliability of paralleling system,focusing on the situation of the early failure mode.The early failure mode of fuzzy reliability mainly obeys the Weibull distribution.Based on this,we obtain the distribution function,density function,failure function,reliability function and the formula of the mean time to failure.For the paralleling system composed of multiple components,C1,C2,???,Cn,especially whenη=1,we also obtain the corresponding formulas.Finally,we cite an example to verify the formula and deepen the understanding.

Analysis of Syetem Reliability in Manufacturing Cell Based on Triangular Fuzzy Number

Due to lacking of test-data and field-data in reliability research during the design stage of manufacturing cell sys- tem.The degree of manufacturing cell system reliability research is increased.In order to deal with the deficient data and the un- certainty occurred from analysis and judgment,the paper discussed a method for studying reliability of manufacturing cell system through the analysis of fuzzy fault tree,which was based on triangular fuzzy number.At last,calculation case indicated that it would have great significance for ascertaining reliability index,maintenance and establishing keeping strategy towards manufac- turing cell system.