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Modeling and scenario prediction of a natural gas demand system based on a system dynamics method 被引量:6
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作者 Xian-Zhong Mu Guo-Hao Li Guang-Wen Hu 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第4期912-924,共13页
Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption struct... Based on the study of the relationship between structure and feedback of China’s natural gas demand system, this paper establishes a system dynamics model. In order to simulate the total demand and consumption structure of natural gas in China, we set up seven scenarios by changing some of the parameters of the model. The results showed that the total demand of natural gas would increase steadily year by year and reach in the range from 3600 to 4500 billion cubic meters in 2035. Furthermore, in terms of consumption structure, urban gas consumption would still be the largest term, followed by the gas consumption as industrial fuel, gas power generation and natural gas chemical industry. In addition, compared with the population growth, economic development still plays a dominant role in the natural gas demand growth, the impact of urbanization on urban gas consumption is significant, and the promotion of natural gas utilization technology can effectively reduce the total consumption of natural gas. 展开更多
关键词 Natural gas demand system System dynamics Scenario prediction Consumption structure
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Urban natural gas demand and factors analysis in China:Perspectives of price and income elasticities 被引量:2
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作者 Jia-Man Li Xiu-Cheng Dong +1 位作者 Qin-Zhe Jiang Kang-Yin Dong 《Petroleum Science》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第1期429-440,共12页
Urban natural gas is becoming the main sector driving China’s natural gas consumption growth in recent years.This study explores the impacts of urban natural gas price,wage,socioeconomic determinants,and meteorologic... Urban natural gas is becoming the main sector driving China’s natural gas consumption growth in recent years.This study explores the impacts of urban natural gas price,wage,socioeconomic determinants,and meteorological conditions on urban natural gas demand in China over 2006-2017.Furthermore,this study also analyzes the potential regional heterogeneity and asymmetry in the impacts of gas price and income on China’s urban gas demand.Empirical results reveal that:(1)The increased gas price can significantly reduce the urban gas demand,and the average income level may effectively promote the gas demand,also,a strong switching effect exists between electricity and natural gas in urban China;(2)these impacts are heterogeneous in regions among China,urban natural gas demand is largely affected by the gas price in regions with high-gas-price and by income in regions with low-gas-price;and(3)the impact of gas price on urban gas consumption is consistent in regions with different urban natural gas consumption,while the impact of income is asymmetric.This study further provides several policy implications for improving the urban natural gas industry in China. 展开更多
关键词 Urban natural gas demand Natural gas price Average wage Regional heterogeneity Asymmetry analysis
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Energy Giant Expands Gas Output to Meet Growing Demand for Cleaner Fuel
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《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2016年第3期41-44,共4页
China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC),Asia’s biggest oil and gas producer,will increase its investment in natural gas exploration and production,pipeline construction and gas sales in the coming decade,betting b... China National Petroleum Corporation(CNPC),Asia’s biggest oil and gas producer,will increase its investment in natural gas exploration and production,pipeline construction and gas sales in the coming decade,betting big on the country’s thirst for the clean fuel.The stateowned company,which currently allocates 70 展开更多
关键词 CNPC Energy Giant Expands gas Output to Meet Growing demand for Cleaner Fuel LNG
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Status, trends and enlightenment of global oil and gas development in 2021 被引量:2
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作者 WANG Zuoqian FAN Zifei +2 位作者 ZHANG Xingyang LIU Baolei CHEN Xi 《Petroleum Exploration and Development》 CSCD 2022年第5期1210-1228,共19页
By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their ye... By analyzing the distribution of global oil and gas fields and the reasons why some oil and gas fields are not in production, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves and their year-on-year changes, the distribution characteristics of oil and gas production and their year-on-year changes, and the development potential of oil and gas to be tapped in 2021, this paper sorts out systematically the current status and characteristics of global oil and gas development, summaries the major trends of global oil and gas development, puts forward enlightenment for international oil and gas cooperation. In 2021, oil and gas fields were widely distributed, the number of non-producing oil and gas fields was large;the whole oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves declined slightly, unconventional oil and gas remaining recoverable reserves dropped significantly;the overall oil and gas production continuously increased, the outputs of key resource-host countries kept year-on-year growth;undeveloped oilfields had abundant reserves and great development potential. Combined with global oil and gas geopolitics, oil and gas industry development trends, oil and gas investment intensity, and the tracking and judgment of hotspot fields, the major trends of global oil and gas development in 2021 are summarized. On this basis, the four aspects of enlightenment and suggestions for international oil and gas cooperation and development strategies are put forward: attach great importance to the obligation of marine abandonment to ensure high-quality and long-term benefit development of offshore oil and gas;adhere to the principle of not going to dangerous and chaotic places, strengthen the concentration of oil and gas assets, and establish multi stable supply bases;based on the multi-scenario demand of natural gas, realize the transformation from integrated collaboration to full oil and gas industry chain development;increase the acquisition of high-quality large-scale assets, and pay attention to the continuous optimization of the shareholding ratio of projects at different stages. 展开更多
关键词 global oil and gas development development situation development potential development investment oil price oil and gas supply and demand fiscal and tax policies concentration of oil and gas asset
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New Situation of China Natural Gas Industry
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作者 Xu Bo Wu Jie 《China Oil & Gas》 CAS 2015年第3期15-21,共7页
China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determin... China natural gas industry is at a turning point. Growth of mid-long term natural gas consumption may maintain at about 10%, supply is sufficient or even "over-sufficient", natural gas price will be determined by competition, oil and gas pipeline facilities will be opened fairly, and private enterprises will play important roles in natural gas exploration, development, storage, transportation, and trade. It can been foreseen that China natural gas industry is very likely to take a turn in next 10 years, and a modern natural gas market with consumption about 500 billion cubic meters will come into being characterized by complete supervision system, diversified market, steady supply, fairly opened pipelines, transparent trading mechanism, and competitive prices. 展开更多
关键词 China natural gas market turn supply and demand price pipeline network
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Petroleum Distribution Characteristics of the Americas and the Exploration Prospect Analysis 被引量:1
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作者 HAO Qingqing LI Lintao +3 位作者 ZUO Yinhui CHEN Weijun WU Lei YI Junjie 《Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition)》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2018年第1期378-393,共16页
The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second larg... The world's present demand for oil and gas is still in a rapid growth period, and traditional oil and gas resources account for more than 60% of the global oil and gas supply. The Americas is the world's second largest production and consumption center of liquid fuel, and is also the world's largest natural gas producer. In 2016, the Americas had 85.3 billion tons of proven oil reserves and 18.7 trillion m3 of proven natural gas reserves, which account for 35.4% and 10.0% of world's total reserves, respectively. It produced 1267.1 Mt of oil and 1125.4 billion m3 of natural gas, which account for 28.9% and 31.7% of the world's total production, respectively. The crude oil and natural gas reserves are mainly distributed in the U.S., Canada and Venezuela. The U.S. is the earliest and most successful country in shale gas exploration and development, and its shale gas is concentrated in the southern, central and eastern U.S., including the Marcellcus shale, Barnett shale, EagleFord shale, Bakken shale, Fayettevis shale, Haynsvill shale, Woodford shale and Monterey/Santos shale. The potential oil and gas resources in the Americas are mainly concentrated in the anticline and stratigraphic traps in the Middle- Upper Jurassic slope deposition of the North Slope Basin, the Paleozoic Madsion group dolomite and limestone in the Williston Basin, dominant stratigraphic traps and few structural traps in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin, the Eocene structural-stratigraphic hydrocarbon combination, structural- unconformity traps and structural hydrocarbon combination, and the Upper Miocene stratigraphic- structural hydrocarbon combination in the Maracaibo Basin of Venezuela, the stratigraphic-structural traps and fault horst, tilting faulted blocks and anticlines related to subsalt structure and basement activity in the Campos Basin, the subsalt central low-uplift belt and supra-salt central low-uplift belt in the Santos Basin of Brazil, and the structural-stratigraphic traps in the Neuquen Basin of Argentina. In addition, the breakthrough of seismic subsalt imaging technology makes the subsalt deepwater sea area of eastern Barzil an important oil and gas potential area. 展开更多
关键词 AMERICAS oil and gas supply and demand U.S. CANADA VENEZUELA unconventional oil andgas resources
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Optimal Operation of Integrated Energy Systems Subject to Coupled Demand Constraints of Electricity and Natural Gas 被引量:17
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作者 Yingjie Qin Lilan Wu +5 位作者 Jiehui Zheng Mengshi Li Zhaoxia Jing Q.H.Wu Xiaoxin Zhou Feng Wei 《CSEE Journal of Power and Energy Systems》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第2期444-457,共14页
This paper proposes a hybrid multi-objective optimization and game-theoretic approach(HMOGTA)to achieve the optimal operation of integrated energy systems(IESs)consisting of electricity and natural gas(E&G)utility... This paper proposes a hybrid multi-objective optimization and game-theoretic approach(HMOGTA)to achieve the optimal operation of integrated energy systems(IESs)consisting of electricity and natural gas(E&G)utility networks,multiple distributed energy stations(DESs),and multiple energy users(EUs).The HMOGTA aims to solve the coordinated operation strategy of the electricity and natural gas networks considering the demand characteristics of DESs and EUs.In the HMOGTA,a hierarchical Stackelberg game model is developed for generating equilibrium strategies of DESs and EUs in each district energy network(DEN).Based on the game results,we obtain the coupling demand constraints of electricity and natural gas(CDCENs)which reflect the relationship between the amounts and prices of electricity and cooling(E&C)that DESs purchase from utility networks.Furthermore,the minimization of conflicting costs of E&G networks considering the CDCENs are solved by a multi-objective optimization method.A case study is conducted on a test IES composed of a 20-node natural gas network,a modified IEEE 30-bus system,and 3 DENs,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed HMOGTA to realize fair treatment for all participants in the IES. 展开更多
关键词 Coupling demand constraints of electricity and natural gas coupling demand characteristics integrated energy system multi-objective optimization Stackelberg game
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