Natural gas consumption forecasting model based on coal-to-gas project in China

Natural gas is widely used because it is environmentally friendly,particularly in reducing carbon emission and improving the Air Quality Index(AQI)around densely populated cities.China has initiated a coal-to-gas project(CGP)to improve the air quality in northern China.As a subcompany of China National Petroleum Corporation,PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company has been focusing on natural gas resource allocation while considering numerous issues such as ensuring the bottom line of livelihood requirements in winter and the performance of economic indicators for an entire calendar year in the northern part of China.Therefore,the accurate prediction of natural gas consumption is important to PetroChina Natural Gas Marketing North Company.It has become a challenge to forecast natural gas consumption because the natural gas market has changed considerably because of the CGP.Natural gas consumption cannot be forecasted using conventional models.This study analyzes the characteristics of the CGP based on the data obtained from rural individual users and company users.Based on the analysis,the gas consumption in winter is predicted using two different forecasting approaches.The methods presented in this paper provide a basis for formulating effective measures for natural gas scheduling in the northern part of China.

Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications

With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

Application of the third theory of quantification in coal and gas outburst forecast

The essential principles of the third theory of quantification are discussed, the concept and calculated method of reaction degree are put forward which extend the ap- plying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun Mine as example, on the base of analyzing the rules of gas geology synthetically and travers- ing the geological factors infecting coal and gas outburst, the paper adopts the method of combining carving up statistical units with the third theory of quantification, screens out 8 sensitive geological factors from 11 geological indexes and carries through the work of gas geology regionalism to the exploited area of Zhongmacun according to the researching result. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geo- logical factors of gas outburst forecast.

Application of the Third Theory of Quantification in Screening Sensitive Geological Factors Influencing Coal and Gas Outburst

The principles of the third theory of quantification were discussed. The concept and calculation method of reaction degree were put forward, which have extended the applying range and scientificalness of the primary reaction. Taking the Zhongmacun mine as an example, the geological factors affecting coal and gas outburst were researched. Eight sensitive factors for the outburst of coal and gas were screened out from 11 geological factors using the method of unit classification and the third theory of quantification. On the basis of this, the Zhongmacun coal mine was classified into several divisions. The practice shows that it is feasible to apply the third theory of quantification to gas geology, which offers a new thought to screen the sensitive geological factors of gas outburst forecast.

Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of China's Natural Gas Consumption in Different Sectors Based on Bayesian Network

In view of the heterogeneity of natural gas consumption in different sectors in China,this paper utilizes Bayesian network(BN)to study the driving factors of natural gas consumption in power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors.Combined with Bayesian model averaging(BMA)and scenario analysis,the gas consumption of the three sectors is predicted.The results show that the expansion of urbanization will promote the gas consumption of power generation.The optimization of industrial structure and the increase of industrial gas consumption will enhance the gas consumption of chemical sector.The decrease of energy intensity and the increase of gas consumption for power generation will promote the gas consumption of industrial fuel.Moreover,the direct influencing factors of gas price are urbanization,energy structure and energy intensity.The direct influencing factors of environmental governance intensity are gas price,urbanization,industrial structure,energy intensity and energy structure.In 2025,under the high development scenario,China’s gas consumption for power generation,chemical and industrial fuel sectors will be 66.034,36.552 and 109.414 billion cubic meters respectively.From 2021 to 2025,the average annual growth rates of gas consumption of the three sectors will be 4.82%,2.18%and 4.43%respectively.