Improved AHP–TOPSIS model for the comprehensive risk evaluation of oil and gas pipelines

A comprehensive and objective risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on an improved analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution(TOPSIS)is established to identify potential hazards in time.First,a barrier model and fault tree analysis are used to establish an index system for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation on the basis of five important factors:corrosion,external interference,material/construction,natural disasters,and function and operation.Next,the index weight for oil and gas pipeline risk evaluation is computed by applying the improved AHP based on the five-scale method.Then,the TOPSIS of a multi-attribute decision-making theory is studied.The method for determining positive/negative ideal solutions and the normalized equation for benefit/cost indexes is improved to render TOPSIS applicable for the comprehensive risk evaluation of pipelines.The closeness coefficient of oil and gas pipelines is calculated by applying the improved TOPSIS.Finally,the weight and the closeness coefficient are combined to determine the risk level of pipelines.Empirical research using a long-distance pipeline as an example is conducted,and adjustment factors are used to verify the model.Results show that the risk evaluation model of oil and gas pipelines based on the improved AHP–TOPSIS is valuable and feasible.The model comprehensively considers the risk factors of oil and gas pipelines and provides comprehensive,rational,and scientific evaluation results.It represents a new decision-making method for systems engineering in pipeline enterprises and provides a comprehensive understanding of the safety status of oil and gas pipelines.The new system engineering decision-making method is important for preventing oil and gas pipeline accidents.

Risk analysis and maintenance decision making of natural gas pipelines with external corrosion based on Bayesian network

Buried natural gas pipelines are vulnerable to external corrosion because they are encased in a soil environment for a long time.Identifying the causes of external corrosion and taking specific maintenance measures is essential.In this work,a risk analysis and maintenance decision-making model for natural gas pipelines with external corrosion is proposed based on a Bayesian network.A fault tree model is first employed to identify the causes of external corrosion.The Bayesian network for risk analysis is determined accordingly.The maintenance strategies are then inserted into the Bayesian network to show a reduction of the risk.The costs of maintenance strategies and the reduced risk after maintenance are combined in an optimization function to build a decision-making model.Because of the limitations of historical data,some of the parameters in the Bayesian network are obtained from a probabilistic estimation model,which combines expert experience and fuzzy set theory.Finally,a case study is carried out to verify the feasibility of the maintenance decision model.This indicates that the method proposed in this work can be used to provide effective maintenance schemes for different pipeline external corrosion scenarios and to reduce the possible losses caused by external corrosion.

Impact of Improving Design Factor over 0.72 on the Safety and Reliability of Gas Pipelines and Feasibility Justification

Many years experience of the operation of high stress (>72% specified minimum yield strength, SMYS) gas pipelines and statistical analysis results of pipeline incidents showed that the operating pipelines at stress levels over 72% SMYS have not presented problems in USA and Canada, and design factor does not control incidents or the safety of pipelines. Enhancing pipeline safety management level is most important for decreasing incident rate. The application history of higher design factors in the U.S and Canada was reviewed. And the effect of higher factors to the critical flaw size, puncture resistance, change of reliability with time, risk level and the arrest toughness requirements of pipeline were analyzed here. The comparison of pipeline failure rates and risk levels between two design factors (0.72 and 0.8) has shown that a change in design factor from 0.72 to 0.8 would bring little effect on failure rates and risk levels. On the basis of the analysis result, the application feasibility of design factor of 0.8 in China was discussed and the related suggestions were proposed. When an operator wishes to apply design factor 0.8 to gas pipeline, the following process is recommended: stress level of line pipe hydro test should be up to 100% SMYS, reliability and risk assessment at the design feasibility or conceptual stage should be conducted, Charpy impact energy should meet the need of pipeline crack arrest; and establish and execute risk based integrity management plan. The technology of pipeline steel metallurgy, line pipe fabrication and pipeline construction, and line pipe quality control level in China achieved tremendous progresses, and line pipe product standards and property indexes have come up to international advanced level. Furthermore, pipeline safety management has improved greatly in China. Consequently, the research for the feasibility of application of design factor of 0.8 in China has fundamental basis.

Stress analysis on large-diameter buried gas pipelines under catastrophic landslides

This paper presents a method for analysis of stress and strain of gas pipelines under the effect of horizontal catastrophic landslides. A soil spring model was used to analyze the nonlinear characteristics concerning the mutual effects between the pipeline and the soil. The Ramberg–Osgood model was used to describe the constitutive relations of pipeline materials. This paper also constructed a finite element analysis model using ABAQUS finite element software and studied the distribution of the maximum stress and strain of the pipeline and the axial stress and strain along the pipeline by referencing some typical accident cases. The calculation results indicated that the maximum stress and strain increased gradually with the displacement of landslide.The limit values of pipeline axial stress strain appeared at the junction of the landslide area and non-landslide area. The stress failure criterion was relatively more conservative than the strain failure criterion. The research results of this paper may be used as a technical reference concerning the design and safety management of large-diameter gas pipelines under the effects of catastrophic landslides.

Dynamical Mechanisms of Effects of Landslides on Long Distance Oil and Gas Pipelines

According to the investigations on the oil and gas pipelines such as the Lan-Cheng-Chong pipeline and the Southwest pipeline, there are two ways of laying pipeline： pipelines paralleling （approximately） to the main slide direction and pipelines perpendicular （approximately） to the main slide direction. If earth-retaining walls have been built for pipelines paralleling to the main slide direction, they will prevent the lands from sliding; On the contrary, without earth-retaining walls, the sharp broken rocks in the backfilling soil will scratch the safeguard of the pipeline when the landslides take place. Pipelines perpendicular to the main slide direction can be classified into four types according to the relative positions between pipelines and landslides： Pipelines over the slide planes, pipelines inside the fracture strips of slide planes, pipelines below the slide planes and pipelines behind the backsides of landslides. The different dynamical mechanisms of the process in which landslide acts against pipelines are analyzed based on whether the pipelines are equipped with fixed frusta, because the sliding resistance depends on whether and how many fixed frusta are equipped and the distance between frusta.

Power optimization of gas pipelines via an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm

In past decades dynamic programming, genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization algorithms and some gradient algorithms have been applied to power optimization of gas pipelines. In this paper a power optimization model for gas pipelines is developed and an improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is applied. Based on the testing of the parameters involved in the algorithm which need to be defined artificially, the values of these parameters have been recommended which can make the algorithm reach efficiently the approximate optimum solution with required accuracy. Some examples have shown that the relative error of the particle swarm optimization over ant colony optimization and dynamic programming is less than 1% and the computation time is much less than that of ant colony optimization and dynamic programming.

Reliability analysis of large-diameter high-grade-steel natural gas pipelines under fault action

There are a lot of researches on qualitative aseismatic measures for buried gas pipeline crossing movable faults.But a few of them are quantitative,especially in the size and shape of the trench.The paper first established the finite element model of the strain of buried pipeline crossing a fault which effected by the size and shape of the trench.And it obtained new soil spring stiffness which considered different buried depth,bottom width of trench,trench slope and elastic modulus of soil.The mechanical analysis model of pipeline is established,and the limit state equation of pipeline is fitted.The reliability and sensitivity of the natural gas pipeline under fault action are analysed by a Monte Carlo method,and the error and accuracy are verified.When the pipeline is under tension,the sensitivity from large to small is buried depth,sand friction angle,pipe diameter,pipeline displacement,trench bottom width,trench depth,clay cohesion,trench slope and clay friction angle;when the pipeline is under pressure,the trench depth and clay cohesion have great influence.The findings of this study provide a reference for pipeline design and safety evaluation under fault action.

Numerical evaluation of the effectiveness of frost heave mitigation strategies for chilled arctic gas pipelines

To prevent the thawing of ice-rich permafrost,it is suggested that gas should be transported in a chilled state(below the freezing temperature)in pipelines buried in permafrost.However,frost heave occurs when water migrates towards the chilled pipeline and ice lenses grow underneath the pipe.This might endanger the integrity of the pipeline and the environment as well.Therefore,innovative frost heave mitigation measures are required when designing the pipeline,especially those sections in discontinuous permafrost or near the compressor stations.The ground temperature field in response to the operation of a proposed chilled gas pipeline traversing permafrost regions in Alaska was simulated by a pipe-soil thermal interaction geothermal model.Frost heave mitigation measures,including insulation around the pipe,flat slab insulation under the pipe,and heating cables combined with slab insulation,were evaluated for chilled pipeline operation in seasonally varying ambient temperatures.The numerical results show that the minimum temperature of the observation point at 2.5 m below the pipe bottom increases by 17%,29%,and 48%when the thermal conductivity of the outer insulation layer is 0.1,0.05,and 0.02 W/(m K),respectively.For flat slab insulation,the thermal field is less sensitive to varying slab thicknesses than to varying thermal conductivity,implying the thermal conductivity,not the thickness,is the crucial factor.Additionally,the heat flow could be redirected from vertical to horizontal by flat slab insulation.The electrical heating cables could be regarded as a new heat source to balance the heat removal rate of the soil around the chilled pipe.The minimum temperature of the observation point at 1.1 m below the bottom of the pipe increases from-15.2℃to-3.0,1.5,and 7.5℃,corresponding to the heating cable power of 20,30,and 40 W,respectively,with the power of 30 W deemed appropriate for the study case.It is concluded that heating cables in combination with insulation slabs could be adopted to regulate the temperature field around the chilled pipeline efficiently and economically.The advantages of this combination include redirecting the heat flow and eliminating frost in the soil underlying the pipe.These approaches could be considered for applications in gas pipeline projects in arctic and alpine/high-plateau permafrost regions.

Incident analyses of frost heaving failure of municipal underground gas pipelines in cold regions of northern China

In the cold regions of northern China, incidents of municipal underground gas pipeline rupture and leakage occur quite fi-equently, aaost often in winter. To prevent harm to citizen safety and property, analysis of the causes of such cracking and leakage is therefore valuable. Two incident analyses are discussed here and the reasons why most of these types of cases occur dttring winter are clarified. Fhe effects of vehicle loadings above buried pipelines are calculated and compared with the effects and calculations of frost heaving forces. We demonstrate thtit when the soil layer above a pipeline freezes rapidly, the soil generates repeated frost heaving, which exerts heaving forces on the pipeline that can result in fatigue crack propagation and ultimate pipeline failure. Therefore, the incident induced 9y frost heaving is one of the primary reasons of gas pipeline failure. Based on these analyses, we present some recommendations pertaining to the proper design, construction, and management of gas pipelines.

Risk assessment of oil and gas pipelines hot work based on AHP-FCE

A new quantitative risk assessment method for hot work is proposed based on the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE).It can help pipeline companies realize the risk management of hot work and further ensure the safe operation of oil and gas pipelines.Taking one natural gas pipeline in China as an example,this paper evaluates the risk of a single hot work in the spring of one natural gas pipeline in a high consequence region.First of all,the risk factors are determined with reference to the job safety analysis(JSA),and then experts were invited to fill out a questionnaire to collect their opinions.According to the results of the questionnaire,AHP is used to calculate the weight coefficients of the evaluation indicators,and FCE is used to evaluate the risk level of hot work.After calculation,the comprehensive risk score of hot work is 40.888.It belongs to a"general risk".This method can not only quantitatively evaluate the risk levels of hot work,but also reasonably sort the importance of various risk factors.It is helpful for the effective management of hot work and provides suggestions for implementing control measures.

Stress corrosion cracking behavior of buried oil and gas pipeline steel under the coexistence of magnetic field and sulfate-reducing bacteria

Magnetic field and microorganisms are important factors influencing the stress corrosion cracking(SCC)of buried oil and gas pipelines. Once SCC occurs in buried pipelines, it will cause serious hazards to the soil environment. The SCC behavior of X80 pipeline steel under the magnetic field and sulfate-reducing bacteria(SRB) environment was investigated by immersion tests, electrochemical tests, and slow strain rate tensile(SSRT) tests. The results showed that the corrosion and SCC sensitivity of X80 steel decreased with increasing the magnetic field strength in the sterile environment. The SCC sensitivity was higher in the biotic environment inoculated with SRB, but it also decreased with increasing magnetic field strength, which was due to the magnetic field reduces microbial activity and promotes the formation of dense film layer. This work provided theoretical guidance on the prevention of SCC in pipeline steel under magnetic field and SRB coexistence.

Experimental and numerical simulation study on the erosion behavior of the elbow of gathering pipeline in shale gas field

During the production period of shale gas, proppant particles and rock debris are produced together,which will seriously erode the elbows of gathering pipelines. In response to this problem, this paper takes the elbow of the gathering pipeline in the Changning Shale Gas Field as an example to test the erosion rate and material removal mechanism of the test piece at different angles of the elbow through experiments and compares the four erosion models with the experimental results. Through analysis, it is found that the best prediction model for quartz sand-carbon steel erosion is the Oka model. Based on the Oka model, FLUENT software was used to simulate and analyze the law of erosion of the elbow of the gas gathering pipeline under different gas flow velocities, gas gathering pressure, particle size, length of L1,and bending directions of the elbow. And a spiral pipeline structure is proposed to reduce the erosion rate of the elbow under the same working conditions. The results show that this structure can reduce erosion by 34%.

Simulation on venting process and valve opening control method for gas trunk pipelines

Determining the venting time of a gas trunk pipeline segment provides an important basis for formulating an emergency plan in the advent of unexpected accidents.As the natural gas venting process corresponds to the transient flow,it is necessary to establish a transient hydraulic-thermal simulation model in order to determine the venting time.In this paper,based on two kinds of venting scenarios in which there is only one venting point in the venting system of a gas trunk pipeline segment—namely,where the venting point is either at one of the two ends or at the junction of two gas trunk pipeline segments—transient hydraulic-thermal simulation models are established.The models consist of gas flow governing equations,the gas state equation,gas physical property equations,initial conditions,and appropriate boundary conditions.The implicit central difference method is used to discretize the gas flow partial differential equations,and the trust-region-dogleg algorithm is used to solve the equations corresponding to each time step,in order to dynamically simulate the whole venting process.The judgment condition for the end of the venting process is that the average pressure of gas trunk pipeline segment is less than 0.11 MPa(actual pressure).Comparing the simulation results of the proposed model with those of the OLGA software and real operational data,we find that the venting time error is less than 10%.On this basis,a venting valve opening control principle is proposed,which prevents the venting noise from exceeded the specified noise value(85 d B)in the venting design of domestic gas pipeline projects.The established calculation model for venting time(dynamic simulation model)for a gas trunk pipeline segment and the proposed opening control principle of venting valve provide reference for the optimal operation of gas pipeline venting systems.

Safety Length Simulation of Natural Gas Pipeline Subjected to Transverse Landslide

The safety of natural gas pipeline is often severely threatened by the transverse landslide. At home and abroad, it is the first time to study the safe length of the pipeline when affected by landslide, and take the safe length of the pipeline as an engineering practical index. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the influence of transverse landslide affecting the safety of natural gas pipeline when a certain length of pipeline is thrusted, and to establish practical index and simulation method for prediction and prevention of the landslide hazards to gas pipeline. Based on the current research results, this study could be divided into three steps: First of all, with the help of ANSYS finite element software, the model of transverse landslide acting on the gas pipeline can be set up, then the length value of gas pipeline safely withstanding transverse landslide can be calculated;Secondly, using the strength reduction method, which is commonly used in the research of landslide stability, can establish three-dimensional model of the landslide and pipes in the ABAQUS finite element software, next, under the same landslide pushed length, the calculation results will be obtained;Finally, to draw reliable conclusions, all calculated results of the former two methods will be linked to synthetically and comparatively analyze, then the length value of common X80 gas pipeline safely bearing transverse landslide can be got. All results can provide some references for engineering and design.

Research and development of 3PP coating steel pipes

The industrial application of an exterior three-layer anticorrosive polypropylene coating system(3PP)on large-diameter(larger than Φ600 mm)steel pipes was developed using an experimental process simulation study and the optimization of raw materials inspection,steel pipe surface pretreatments,and water cooling control on a coating application process.The coating properties meet ISO standard 21809 on buried or submerged 3PP pipelines used in the petroleum and natural gas industries.Differential scanning calorimetry and X-ray diffraction were used to analyze the crystallinities and grain sizes of polypropylene(PP)top coats with different cooling rates.Increasing the melt cooling rate reduces the crystallinity and grain size of the PP top coat and enhances its strength and toughness.

Effects of Internal Flow on Vortex-Induced Vibration and Fatigue Life of Submarine Pipelines

With the rapid development of the offshore oil industries, submarine oil / gas pipelines have been widely used. Under the complicated submarine environmental conditions, the dynamic characteristics of pipelines show some new features due to the existence of both internal and external flows. The paper is intended to investigate the vortex-induced vibration of the suspended pipeline span exposed to submarine steady flow. Especially, the effects of the flow inside the pipeline are taken into account. Its influences on the amplitude of pipeline response, and then on the fatigue life, are given in terms of the velocity of the internal flow.

Prediction on Failure Pressure of Pipeline Containing Corrosion Defects Based on ISSA-BPNNModel

Oil and gas pipelines are affected by many factors,such as pipe wall thinning and pipeline rupture.Accurate prediction of failure pressure of oil and gas pipelines can provide technical support for pipeline safety management.Aiming at the shortcomings of the BP Neural Network(BPNN)model,such as low learning efficiency,sensitivity to initial weights,and easy falling into a local optimal state,an Improved Sparrow Search Algorithm(ISSA)is adopted to optimize the initial weights and thresholds of BPNN,and an ISSA-BPNN failure pressure prediction model for corroded pipelines is established.Taking 61 sets of pipelines blasting test data as an example,the prediction model was built and predicted by MATLAB software,and compared with the BPNN model,GA-BPNN model,and SSA-BPNN model.The results show that the MAPE of the ISSA-BPNN model is 3.4177%,and the R2 is 0.9880,both of which are superior to its comparison model.Using the ISSA-BPNN model has high prediction accuracy and stability,and can provide support for pipeline inspection and maintenance.

Analysing Delay Impact from Potential Risk Factors on Project Delivery of Oil and Gas Pipeline:A Case Study in IRAQ

The aim of this paper is to present the design and specifications of an integrated Delay Analysis Framework(DAF),which could be used to quantify the delay caused by the Risk Factors(RFs)in Oil and Gas Pipelines(OGPs)projects in a simple and systematic way.The main inputs of the DAF are(i)the potential list of RFs in the projects and their impact levels on the projects and the estimated maximum and minimum duration of each task.Monte Carlo Simulation integrated within@Risk simulator was the key process algorithm that used to quantify the impact of delay caused by the associated RFs.The key output of the DAF is the amount of potential delay caused by RFs in the OGP project.The functionalities of the developed DAF were evaluated using a case study of newly developed OGP project,in the south of Iraq.It is found that the case study project might have delayed by 45 days if neglected the consideration of the RFs associated with the project at the construction stage.The paper concludes that identifying the associated RFs and analysing the potential delay in advance will help in reducing the construction delay and improving the effectiveness of the project delivery by taking suitable risk mitigation measures.