基于Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型的摩托车事故伤害估计与对比

为了给我国的摩托车事故伤害分析提供指导与依据,通过抽取美国印第安纳州2013—2015年的1947起摩托车单车事故,分别建立Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型,分析摩托车事故伤害程度的影响因素,模型参数分别采用全信息最大似然估计法与蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行估计.两个模型的估计结果均表明:女性、年龄、使用头盔、酒驾、甩出车外、超速、冲出道路、载人、车龄>10年、路面潮湿、曲线坡度、交叉口、限速>80 km/h、4月份、7月份、夜间无灯光、郊区、事故碰撞物(防护栏、树、墙、路缘、电线杆、涵洞)等与摩托车事故伤害程度显著相关.通过对比Nested Logit与Random Parameters Logit模型的AIC与BIC准则值,发现Random Parameters Logit模型对事故数据的拟合优度更高,能够得到更好的参数估计结果.

Improved cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation of mixed additive and multiplicative random error model

To estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative(MAM)random error model using the weighted least squares iterative algorithm that requires derivation of the complex weight array,we introduce a derivative-free cat swarm optimization for parameter estimation.We embed the Powell method,which uses conjugate direction acceleration and does not need to derive the objective function,into the original cat swarm optimization to accelerate its convergence speed and search accuracy.We use the ordinary least squares,weighted least squares,original cat swarm optimization,particle swarm algorithm and improved cat swarm optimization to estimate the parameters of the straight-line fitting MAM model with lower nonlinearity and the DEM MAM model with higher nonlinearity,respectively.The experimental results show that the improved cat swarm optimization has faster convergence speed,higher search accuracy,and better stability than the original cat swarm optimization and the particle swarm algorithm.At the same time,the improved cat swarm optimization can obtain results consistent with the weighted least squares method based on the objective function only while avoiding multiple complex weight array derivations.The method in this paper provides a new idea for theoretical research on parameter estimation of MAM error models.

Reliability analysis of structure with random parameters based on multivariate power polynomial expansion

A new method for calculating the failure probabilityof structures with random parameters is proposed based onmultivariate power polynomial expansion, in which te uncertain quantities include material properties, structuralgeometric characteristics and static loads. The structuralresponse is first expressed as a multivariable power polynomialexpansion, of which the coefficients ae then determined by utilizing the higher-order perturbation technique and Galerkinprojection scheme. Then, the final performance function ofthe structure is determined. Due to the explicitness of theperformance function, a multifold integral of the structuralfailure probability can be calculated directly by the Monte Carlo simulation, which only requires a smal amount ofcomputation time. Two numerical examples ae presented toillustate te accuracy ad efficiency of te proposed metiod. It is shown that compaed with the widely used first-orderreliability method （ FORM） and second-order reliabilitymethod （ SORM）, te results of the proposed method are closer to that of the direct Monte Carlo metiod,and it requires much less computational time.

THE DECISION OF THE OPTIMAL PARAMETERS IN MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS OF IMAGES BY GENETIC ALGORITHM

This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to solve the parameters in the Markov random field.The detailed procedure is discussed.On the basis of the parameters solved by genetic algorithms,some experiments on classification of aerial images are given.Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and the classification results are satisfactory.

Use of Random Regression Test-Day Model to Estimate Genetic Parameters of Milk Yield in Holstein Cows

(Co) variance components and genetic parameters were estimated for milk yield of Iranian Holstein cows. A total number of 68,945 milk test-day records of first, second and third lactations of 8515 animals from 100 sires and 7743 dams originated from 34 herds collected during 2007 to 2009 by Iranian animal breeding center were used. The ASReml computer program was used to analyze the milk test-day records using the random regression procedure. Herd test date (HTD), milking times per day (milking frequency), number of lactations, year of birth, year of calving, age of animal at calving and days in milk (DIM) considered as fixed effects and additive genetic effects and animal permanent environmental effects were considered as the random effects. Additive genetic variance, animal permanent environment variance, residual variance, phenotypic variance, heritability and repeatability were estimated during different months of lactation between 5.7 - 19.6, 15.3 - 27.1, 31.4 - 17.2, 45.8 - 64.83, 0.1 - 0.32 and 0.4 - 0.6, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation were also estimated between months of lactation in range of -0.35 - 0.98 and 0.03 - 0.67, respectively. Genetic correlation and phenotypic correlation both showed the same changing pattern and they decreased as the interval between months of lactation increased.

Three-dimensional(3D)parametric measurements of individual gravels in the Gobi region using point cloud technique

Gobi spans a large area of China,surpassing the combined expanse of mobile dunes and semi-fixed dunes.Its presence significantly influences the movement of sand and dust.However,the complex origins and diverse materials constituting the Gobi result in notable differences in saltation processes across various Gobi surfaces.It is challenging to describe these processes according to a uniform morphology.Therefore,it becomes imperative to articulate surface characteristics through parameters such as the three-dimensional(3D)size and shape of gravel.Collecting morphology information for Gobi gravels is essential for studying its genesis and sand saltation.To enhance the efficiency and information yield of gravel parameter measurements,this study conducted field experiments in the Gobi region across Dunhuang City,Guazhou County,and Yumen City(administrated by Jiuquan City),Gansu Province,China in March 2023.A research framework and methodology for measuring 3D parameters of gravel using point cloud were developed,alongside improved calculation formulas for 3D parameters including gravel grain size,volume,flatness,roundness,sphericity,and equivalent grain size.Leveraging multi-view geometry technology for 3D reconstruction allowed for establishing an optimal data acquisition scheme characterized by high point cloud reconstruction efficiency and clear quality.Additionally,the proposed methodology incorporated point cloud clustering,segmentation,and filtering techniques to isolate individual gravel point clouds.Advanced point cloud algorithms,including the Oriented Bounding Box(OBB),point cloud slicing method,and point cloud triangulation,were then deployed to calculate the 3D parameters of individual gravels.These systematic processes allow precise and detailed characterization of individual gravels.For gravel grain size and volume,the correlation coefficients between point cloud and manual measurements all exceeded 0.9000,confirming the feasibility of the proposed methodology for measuring 3D parameters of individual gravels.The proposed workflow yields accurate calculations of relevant parameters for Gobi gravels,providing essential data support for subsequent studies on Gobi environments.

Shrinkage Estimation in the Random Parameters Logit Model

In this paper, we explore the properties of a positive-part Stein-like estimator which is a stochastically weighted convex combination of a fully correlated parameter model estimator and uncorrelated parameter model estimator in the Random Parameters Logit (RPL) model. The results of our Monte Carlo experiments show that the positive-part Stein-like estimator provides smaller MSE than the pretest estimator in the fully correlated RPL model. Both of them outperform the fully correlated RPL model estimator and provide more accurate information on the share of population putting a positive or negative value on the alternative attributes than the fully correlated RPL model estimates. The Monte Carlo mean estimates of direct elasticity with pretest and positive-part Stein-like estimators are closer to the true value and have smaller standard errors than those with fully correlated RPL model estimator.

Random but System-Wide Unique Unlinkable Parameters

When initializing cryptographic systems or running cryptographic protocols, the randomness of critical parameters, like keys or key components, is one of the most crucial aspects. But, randomly chosen parameters come with the intrinsic chance of duplicates, which finally may cause cryptographic systems including RSA, ElGamal and Zero-Knowledge proofs to become insecure. When concerning digital identifiers, we need uniqueness in order to correctly identify a specific action or object. Unfortunately we also need randomness here. Without randomness, actions become linkable to each other or to their initiator’s digital identity. So ideally the employed (cryptographic) parameters should fulfill two potentially conflicting requirements simultaneously: randomness and uniqueness. This article proposes an efficient mechanism to provide both attributes at the same time without highly constraining the first one and never violating the second one. After defining five requirements on random number generators and discussing related work, we will describe the core concept of the generation mechanism. Subsequently we will prove the postulated properties (security, randomness, uniqueness, efficiency and privacy protection) and present some application scenarios including system-wide unique parameters, cryptographic keys and components, identifiers and digital pseudonyms.

Flight Flutter Modal Parameters Identification with Atmospheric Turbulence Excitation Based on Wavelet Transformation

In view of the feature of flight flutter test data with atmospheric turbulence excitation, a method which combines wavelet transformation with random decrement technique for identifying flight flutter modal parameters is presented. This approach firstly uses random decrement technique to gain free decays corresponding to the acceleration response of the structure to some non-zero initial conditions. Then the continuous Morlet wavelet transformation of the free decays is performed; and the Parseval formula and residue theorem are used to simplify the transformation. The maximal wavelet transformation coefficients in different scales are searched out by means of band-filtering characteristic of Morlet wavelet, and then the modal parameters are identified according to the relationships with maximal modulus and angle of the wavelet transform. In addition, the condition of modal uncoupling is discussed according to variation trend of flight flutter modal parameters in the flight flutter state. The analysis results of simulation and flight flutter test data show that this approach is not only simple, effective and feasible, but also having good noise immunity.

Estimation of Geodetic Parameters with VLBI Data of Last 5 Years

The meaning to research the potential of VLBI for geodetic applications is summarized. And the observation models and their related parameters of geodetic interest are investigated. Then, the principle and method of using the random model in VLBI data processing are investigated. With the world wide VLBI data from 2000-2004, the conditions to compute the parameters of geodetic interest are introduced, and so are the computing methods and processes. And the computed resuits of the parameters of geodetic interest are analyzed.

Prestack seismic stochastic inversion based on statistical characteristic parameters

In the conventional stochastic inversion method,the spatial structure information of underground strata is usually characterized by variograms.However,effectively characterizing the heterogeneity of complex strata is difficult.In this paper,multiple parameters are used to fully explore the underground formation information in the known seismic reflection and well log data.The spatial structure characteristics of complex underground reservoirs are described more comprehensively using multiple statistical characteristic parameters.We propose a prestack seismic stochastic inversion method based on prior information on statistical characteristic parameters.According to the random medium theory,this method obtains several statistical characteristic parameters from known seismic and logging data,constructs a prior information model that meets the spatial structure characteristics of the underground strata,and integrates multiparameter constraints into the likelihood function to construct the objective function.The very fast quantum annealing algorithm is used to optimize and update the objective function to obtain the fi nal inversion result.The model test shows that compared with the traditional prior information model construction method,the prior information model based on multiple parameters in this paper contains more detailed stratigraphic information,which can better describe complex underground reservoirs.A real data analysis shows that the stochastic inversion method proposed in this paper can effectively predict the geophysical characteristics of complex underground reservoirs and has a high resolution.

Analysis of bicyclist-vehicle crash at intersection area considering behavior prior to crash:A random parameter ordinal probit approach

In order to analyze the risky factors that affect vehicle-cyclist crash injury severity at the intersection area,especially the factors relating to the road users behaviors,an empirical study was conducted by collecting accident records from 2011 to 2015 from the General Estimates System.After preliminary screening,the variables were classified into 5 main categories including cyclists characteristic and behavior,drivers characteristic and behavior,vehicle characteristic,intersection condition,and time.The random parameter ordinal probit(RPOP)was used to study the significant influencing factors and corresponding heterogeneity.The results show that failing to obey traffic signals,failing to yield to right-of-way,dash and drinking before cycling can increase the injury severity for cyclists,and the corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 53.2%,40.0%,86.3%,and 211.5%,respectively.Moreover,drivers inattention,speeding,going straight and left turning increase the risk of crashing for cyclists.The corresponding fatal injury likelihoods increase by 134.5%,186.5%,69.3%,and 22.7%,respectively.Other indicators such as age,gender,vehicle type,traffic signal and intersection type can also affect injury severity.

The improved artificial bee colony algorithm for mixed additive and multiplicative random error model and the bootstrap method for its precision estimation

To solve the complex weight matrix derivative problem when using the weighted least squares method to estimate the parameters of the mixed additive and multiplicative random error model(MAM error model),we use an improved artificial bee colony algorithm without derivative and the bootstrap method to estimate the parameters and evaluate the accuracy of MAM error model.The improved artificial bee colony algorithm can update individuals in multiple dimensions and improve the cooperation ability between individuals by constructing a new search equation based on the idea of quasi-affine transformation.The experimental results show that based on the weighted least squares criterion,the algorithm can get the results consistent with the weighted least squares method without multiple formula derivation.The parameter estimation and accuracy evaluation method based on the bootstrap method can get better parameter estimation and more reasonable accuracy information than existing methods,which provides a new idea for the theory of parameter estimation and accuracy evaluation of the MAM error model.

EXTRACTING MODAL PARAMETERS FROM STRUCTURES UNDERGOING AMBIENT EXCITATION

On Line Parameter Identification Technique (OLPIT) was presented according to ambient excitation characteristics and the response cross-correlation function that is a sum of decaying sinusoids of the same form as the impulse response function of the original system. OLPIT is a new method of identification modal parameters from response of structures under ambient excitation. OLPIT is different from NExT (natural excitation technique) based on ITD method in four aspects: ① The algorithm is improved by the singular-value decomposition (SVD). ② Multi-value of b r in the Ibrahim Time Domain (ITD) is avoided. ③ OLPIT is used in both SIMO (single input, multi-output) and MIMO (multi input, multi-output). ④ The precision of modal parameter identificatioin is improved. The simulation studies demonstrate that the method is effective in identifying complex modes even with close frequencies and is robust to measurement noise.

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation analysis of a Rssler system with a bounded random parameter

This paper aims to study the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation of the three-dimensional Rossler system with an arch-like bounded random parameter. First, we transform the stochastic RSssler system into its equivalent deterministic one in the sense of minimal residual error by the Chebyshev polynomial approximation method. Then, we explore the dynamical behaviour of the stochastic RSssler system through its equivalent deterministic system by numerical simulations. The numerical results show that some stochastic period-doubling bifurcation, akin to the conventional one in the deterministic case, may also appear in the stochastic Rossler system. In addition, we also examine the influence of the random parameter intensity on bifurcation phenomena in the stochastic Rossler system.

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in biharmonic driven Duffing system with random parameter

Stochastic period-doubling bifurcation is explored in a forced Duffing system with a bounded random parameter as an additional weak harmonic perturbation added to the system. Firstly, the biharmonic driven Duffing system with a random parameter is reduced to its equivalent deterministic one, and then the responses of the stochastic system can be obtained by available effective numerical methods. Finally, numerical simulations show that the phase of the additional weak harmonic perturbation has great influence on the stochastic period-doubling bifurcation in the biharmonic driven Duffing system. It is emphasized that, different from the deterministic biharmonic driven Duffing system, the intensity of random parameter in the Duffing system can also be taken as a bifurcation parameter, which can lead to the stochastic period-doubling bifurcations.

Fast prediction of the mechanical response for layered pavement under instantaneous large impact based on random forest regression

The layered pavements usually exhibit complicated mechanical properties with the effect of complex material properties under external environment.In some cases,such as launching missiles or rockets,layered pavements are required to bear large impulse load.However,traditional methods cannot non-destructively and quickly detect the internal structural of pavements.Thus,accurate and fast prediction of the mechanical properties of layered pavements is of great importance and necessity.In recent years,machine learning has shown great superiority in solving nonlinear problems.In this work,we present a method of predicting the maximum deflection and damage factor of layered pavements under instantaneous large impact based on random forest regression with the deflection basin parameters obtained from falling weight deflection testing.The regression coefficient R^(2)of testing datasets are above 0.94 in the process of predicting the elastic moduli of structural layers and mechanical responses,which indicates that the prediction results have great consistency with finite element simulation results.This paper provides a novel method for fast and accurate prediction of pavement mechanical responses under instantaneous large impact load using partial structural parameters of pavements,and has application potential in non-destructive evaluation of pavement structure.

Remaining useful life prediction of aero-engines based on random-coefficient regression model considering random failure threshold

Remaining useful life(RUL)prediction is one of the most crucial components in prognostics and health management(PHM)of aero-engines.This paper proposes an RUL prediction method of aero-engines considering the randomness of failure threshold.Firstly,a random-coefficient regression(RCR)model is used to model the degradation process of aeroengines.Then,the RUL distribution based on fixed failure threshold is derived.The prior parameters of the degradation model are calculated by a two-step maximum likelihood estimation(MLE)method and the random coefficient is updated in real time under the Bayesian framework.The failure threshold in this paper is defined by the actual degradation process of aeroengines.After that,a expectation maximization(EM)algorithm is proposed to estimate the underlying failure threshold of aeroengines.In addition,the conditional probability is used to satisfy the limitation of failure threshold.Then,based on above results,an analytical expression of RUL distribution of aero-engines based on the RCR model considering random failure threshold(RFT)is derived in a closed-form.Finally,a case study of turbofan engine is used to demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the RUL prediction method and the parameters estimation method of failure threshold proposed.

Randomized Algorithm for Determining Stabilizing Parameter Regions for General Delay Control Systems

This paper proposes a method for determining the stabilizing parameter regions for general delay control systems based on randomized sampling. A delay control system is converted into a unified state-space form. The numerical stability condition is developed and checked for sample points in the parameter space. These points are separated into stable and unstable regions by the decision function obtained from some learning method. The proposed method is very general and applied to a much wider range of systems than the existing methods in the literature. The proposed method is illustrated with examples.

考虑建成环境的电动自行车事故严重程度致因分析

为探究考虑建成环境影响下,电动自行车交通事故严重程度的影响因素,本文从事故属性、骑行者属性、对象车辆及驾驶员属性、道路属性及建成环境属性这5个方面,选取18个影响电动自行车交通事故严重性的潜在变量。在此基础上,构建考虑均值及方差异质性的随机参数Logit模型,利用边际效应量化显著变量对事故严重程度的影响差异。基于北京市近5年电动自行车事故抽样数据进行实证研究,结果表明:事故时段19:00-次日7:00、骑行者年龄大于40岁、重(大)型货车、到最近医院的距离增大及恶劣天气等因素会增加电动自行车事故严重程度。建成环境属性中,到最近医院的距离在死亡事故中的参数为服从正态分布的随机参数,路段及恶劣天气会增大其均值异质性,驾驶员年龄为(40,60]岁会增大其方差异质性;其他属性中,一般城市道路在受伤事故中的参数为服从正态分布的随机参数,路段会增大其均值异质性。研究结果可以为降低电动自行车事故严重程度提供理论支撑。