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Regional Integrated Meteorological Forecasting and Warning Model for Geological Hazards Based on Logistic Regression 被引量:1
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作者 XU Jing YANG Chi ZHANG Guoping 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 CAS 2007年第4期638-644,共7页
Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for model... Information model is adopted to integrate factors of various geosciences to estimate the susceptibility of geological hazards. Further combining the dynamic rainfall observations, Logistic regression is used for modeling the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences, upon which hierarchical warnings for rainfall-induced geological hazards are produced. The forecasting and warning model takes numerical precipitation forecasts on grid points as its dynamic input, forecasts the probabilities of geological hazard occurrences on the same grid, and translates the results into likelihoods in the form of a 5-level hierarchy. Validation of the model with observational data for the year 2004 shows that 80% of the geological hazards of the year have been identified as "likely enough to release warning messages". The model can satisfy the requirements of an operational warning system, thus is an effective way to improve the meteorological warnings for geological hazards. 展开更多
关键词 geological hazard information model logistic regression rainfall spatial analysis
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基于Logistic回归的区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型 被引量:28
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作者 徐晶 张国平 +1 位作者 张芳华 齐丹 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2007年第12期3-8,共6页
应用Logistic回归拟合地质灾害发生概率,建立了区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型,实现了降雨引发地质灾害发生概率的动态预报。降雨观测和数值降雨预报作为模型的动态输入,利用信息量模型集成地学因子得到的总信息量作为模型的静态预报因... 应用Logistic回归拟合地质灾害发生概率,建立了区域地质灾害综合气象预警模型,实现了降雨引发地质灾害发生概率的动态预报。降雨观测和数值降雨预报作为模型的动态输入,利用信息量模型集成地学因子得到的总信息量作为模型的静态预报因子。预警模型在栅格点上预报降雨引发地质灾害的发生概率,并以等级形式发布预警。用2004年实际观测对预报进行检验,结果表明当年80%的灾害都达到了预警发布的标准。2006年汛期的业务运行对台风碧利斯引发的地质灾害做出了较准确的预报预警。说明模型能满足预警业务的要求,是提高地质灾害气象预警水平的有效途径。 展开更多
关键词 logistic回归 地质灾害 降雨 空间分析信息量模型
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