North-South Asymmetry of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field Magnitude and the Geomagnetic Indices

Data of the daily interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), and the geomagnetic indices (aa, Ap, Kp, and DST) have been used to examine the asymmetry between the solar field north and south of the heliospheric current sheet, over the period (1975-2013). It important to note that during the positive polarity epochs: (T) refers to Toward the South of the heliospheric current sheet (Southern Hemisphere), and (A) refers to Away from North of the heliospheric current sheet (Northern Hemisphere). While, during the negative polarity epochs the opposite will be happened. The present study finds no clear indication of the presence of north-south asymmetry in the field magnitude, and also there is no magnetic solar cycle dependence that is evident. During the considered period, the north-south asymmetry for the considered parameters reaches maximum values around the declining phase or near to the minimum of the solar cycle. The geomagnetic indices have a clear asymmetry during the positive solar magnetic polarity period (qA > 0) and have a northern dominance during cycles (22 & 23) and southern dominance during cycles (21 & 24). From the power spectrum density, the considered parameters showed significant peaks which appeared in the north-south asymmetry but the 10.7 yr solar cycle was absent. In addition, the main periodicity of the asymmetry may be 5.2, 4.0 and 3.3 years that exist in the parameters with higher confidence levels. Finally, one can conclude that the asymmetry of the interplanetary parameters and the geomagnetic indices may provide multiple causes for producing the observed asymmetric modulations of cosmic rays.

Prediction verification of solar cycles 18–24 and a preliminary prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25 based on the Precursor Method

Predictions of the strength of solar cycles are important and are necessary for planning long-term missions.A new solar cycle 25 is coming soon,and the amplitude is needed for space weather operators.Some predictions have been made using different methods and the values are drastically different.However,since 2015 July 1,the original sunspot number data have been entirely replaced by the Version 2.0 data series,and the sunspot number values have changed greatly.In this paper,using Version 2 smoothed sunspot numbers and aa indices,we verify the predictions for cycles 18-24 based on Ohl’s Precursor Method.Then a similar-cycles method is used to evaluate the aa minimum of 9.7(±1.1)near the start of cycle 25 and based on the linear regression relationship between sunspot maxima and aa minima,our predicted Version 2maximum sunspot number for cycle 25 is 121.5(±32.9).