Impact of geopolitical risk,GDP,inflation,interest rate,and trade openness on foreign direct investment:Evidence from five Southeast Asian countries

Historically,geopolitical risk(GPR)has posed significant challenges to international economic,social,and political frameworks.This study investigated how internal GPR in the selected five Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia,South Korea,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand)influences foreign direct investment(FDI)during 1996-2019.The stationarity of the data was assessed using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,which shows that the data became stationary after the first difference.The Kao,Pedroni,and Westerlund cointegration tests were employed to examine long-term cointegration among the selected variables(FDI,GPR index(GPRI),gross domestic product(GDP),inflation,interest rate,and trade openness(TOP)).The results indicated that these variables have a long-term cointegration.Consequently,regression analysis using the Pooled Ordinary Least Squares(OLS)regression,fixed effect,random effect,Arellano-Bond dynamic panel-data estimation,and system generalized moment method(GMM)revealed that GPRI and TOP negatively impacted FDI in the selected five Southeast Asian countries.At the same time,GDP,inflation,and interest rate positively influenced FDI in these countries.Because FDI is crucial to shaping a country’s macroeconomic structure,this study recommends that governments and central banks of the selected five Southeast Asian countries should implement policies and strategies to encourage foreign investments.

THE HISTORY AND STATUS OF GEOPOLITICS AND THE GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIES OF CHINA

Taking the rising and declining in Geopolitics as the main lines, this paper reviews the history of the annihilation, revival and deveopment in geoplitics since the 1970s. The ideas and propositions about the world geopolitical structure after the end of Cold War, proposed by the Westem geopolitical strategists, have been introduced and assessed. About the geopolitical strategies of China in the world geopolotical structure in the future, the authors propose framework ideas. The aim of the paper is to join discussions and researches on the geopolitical strategies, and to promote the subject construction and development of human geography including Geopolitics and Political Geography.

Geopolitics of global climate change and energy security

Currently,the problem of climate change is already far beyond the category of scientific research,and it affects the economic operation mode,interests pattern,and geographical relationships and becomes the focus of global governance.During the transition period of the international economic and social development and the critical transformation period of the world geopolitical pattern reorganization,China's industrialization is still at the intermediate stage,and tackling with climate change is also China's internal demand under this development stage.With more influence of climate change on national competitiveness,climate change and geopolitics present complex multiple relations,and climate change in the era of geopolitical landscape gradually affected the national strategy and diplomacy.This article offered some relevant suggestions based on evaluating the new geopolitical characteristics of climate change:(1)weighing of interests and properly handling the complex relations among major powers during international climate negotiations;(2)strengthening risk judgments and actively cooperating with the United States and the European Union on energy and climate change;(3)relying on the"One Belt(Silk Road Economic Belt)and One Road(twenty-first century Maritime Silk Road)"to ensure China's energy security and actively participating in the global energy governance;(4)strengthening the"south-south cooperation"mechanism innovation and increasing the investment.

Victor Nozadze on Geopolitics of the Caucasus

The paper deals with the political visions of a famous Georgian scientist and public figure Victor Nozadze （1893-1975）. It refers to Nozadze＇s attempts to comprehend Georgia and Caucasus through the concepts and categories of the new discipline of those times--geopolitics. The study uncovers the main propositions of his work On the Geopolitics of the Caucasus （A Struggle for Oil） which could be considered as one of the seminal works in the history of the geopolitical thought of Georgia. The paper argues that Nozadze was significantly influenced by the works of a German geo-politician Erich Obst and he became interested in the problems of geopolitics through the publications appearing in the Journal of Geopolitics. The study proves that geopolitical analysis of Obst and Nozadze are not contradictory; rather they deal with the different geopolitical aspects. The study proposes the geopolitical conception of Victor Nozadze, which could be formulated as follows： for the empires of the old and contemporary times of Caucasus was ＂an area of growth and enlargement＂, ＂an area of competition of geopolitical powers＂, the place where ＂all imperial powers clash each-other＂, ＂Caucasus was and remains an area of competition of geopolitical powers.＂ According to Victor Nozadze, the Transcaucasia was a single entity in geographic terms and due to its geographical location Georgia always strove towards acquiring a leading role in the unification of the Caucasus. He assumed that Georgia should have maintained the same role in the future as well. Although he was well aware of those aspects which hindered the unity of the Caucasus： contradictions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as the different foreign orientations of these people. Although he considered continuation of attempts for unification of the Caucasus as a necessity and tried to justify this claim through the norms and rules of geopolitics.

The Development and Game of US Digital Diplomacy Under Geopolitics

As the evolution of public diplomacy,digital diplomacy uses Internet and new communication technologies to help achieve diplomatic goals.As early as 2006,the United States began to actively develop cyber diplomacy in order to maintain and develop the broad interests of the United States in cyberspace.However,in recent years,the US digital diplomacy has encountered internal and external communication barriers,especially after the 2008 financial crisis,the US government no longer has the strength to support its diplomatic actions.At the same time,a small number of large technology companies are beginning to compete for geopolitical influence using their own financial and technological advantages as well,including Tesla President Musk,whose expansion in Starlink technology in the Ukraine crisis is an act of bringing his own funds technology to participate in U.S.digital diplomacy.

Approach to the Geopolitical Influences of Great Powers in Southeast Asia: Case Studies of China and the US

A quantitative approach to the national geopolitical influence is helpful to provide a reference for national sustainable development on the international stage, based on describing national diplomatic capacity and overseas influence. Herein, this study proposes a complex geopolitical influence model, considering the affected nations' response. The geopolitical influences of great power in the affected nation are correlated with overall strength, the acceptance degree of the affected nation to the great power and the distance between both sides. Then, the geopolitical influences of China and the US in Southeast Asia countries are empirically analyzed from 2005 to 2015. The geopolitical influence of China in Southeast Asia has been largely growing for the past decades, accompanying with a constant trend of the US' effects. It is believed that China and the US can coexist peacefully in Southeast Asia to promote the regional development, and jointly create an open, inclusive and balanced regional cooperation architecture that benefits all nations in this region and great powers, through mutual political trust and economic beneficial cooperation. This study may contribute to advancing the policy debate and determining the optimal cooperation in pledging commitment to a new and sustainable model of great power relationship among the various regional geopolitical options.

A Study on the Structural Contradictions in the US-Turkey Alliance Relations

After the Cold War and especially since the Justice and Development Party administration led by Erdogan,the US-Turkey alliance relations have declined.The two countries have sharp structural contradictions on a series of issues.Due to the profound geopolitical landscape changes,the interdependence on security and defense between the United States and Turkey has been severely weakened,leading to significant divergence in threat definition and pursuit of interests.Turkey has continuously enhanced its diplomatic autonomy,seeking to change its weak position in the original alliance relations,and striving to become a regional leader.These structural contradictions inevitably trigger the hedging of policies and interests between the United States and Turkey.

The Advent of Competing Foreign Powers in the Geostrategic Horn of Africa： Analysis of Opportunity and Security Risk for Ethiopia

This paper examines the opportunity and security implication of the advent of competing foreign powers in the geostrategic Horn of Africa for Ethiopia. Accordingly, the paper argues that since the advent of competing foreign powers in Horn of Africa is both an opportunity and security risk for Ethiopia, there is a need for a rational and assertive foreign policy aimed at utilizing the opportunity, minimizing the risk and countering neo-colonialism and ＂Clientelism＂. Methodologically, the study employed qualitative research methodology. Accordingly, the study used secondary source of data; collected from books, published journal articles, published and unpublished theses and dissertation, governmental and non-governmental organization reports and remarks, magazines and other internet sources. To substantiate the data, the paper also used primary data collected through key informant interviews. Given the data gathered are qualitative, the study employed qualitative data analysis techniques. The fmding of the study shows that Horn of Africa has become ＂an athletic field＂ of foreign powers. It can be argued that the region has become ＂a military garrison＂： US, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, China and Saudi Arabia have already established their military base at Djibouti. Thus, the militarization of the Horn is both an opportunity as well as a risk for Ethiopia, a nucleus and landlocked country of the sub-region. It is an opportunity in areas of military, regional stability, accelerating factor of regional integration and economic worth. However, these opportunities are largely determined by the Ethiopia＇s diplomatic utmost effort and policy reorientation. Despite these opportunities, the rise of foreign powers in the Horn of Africa has a security risk： national security, economic, political and military. Therefore, Ethiopia needs a rational and assertive foreign policy to utilize the opportunities and at times to minimize the security risk. First, in domestic policy setting constitutionalism is highly needed which is imperative. Second, regionally, Ethiopia must stabilize and normalize its relation with Eritrea. Moreover, Ethiopia must strength its relation with all of its neighbors. Third, Ethiopia must maintain a good relation with foreign powers that already established a military base in Djibouti. In this regard, over-reliance on some foreign powers and neglecting others, becoming an instrument of foreign powers must be avoided. Rather Ethiopia must use a rational policy and at times must follow the foreign policy of Emperor Menelik ＂playing one foreign power over the other＂. Moreover, emphasis also should be given to the importance of collective security. Finally, Ethiopia and the region must work towards countering neo-colonialism and patron-client relations. Falling to adopt countering strategy may be quoted as ＂neo-colonialism and Clientelism＂ by invitation.

Role of Geoscience in Building a Sustainable World:Energy Perspective

"We have the brain power and even money power; what we need is a sense of urgency to harness these systems in a big way so that we would become self-reliant in energy,not in the distant future."Man’s quest for exploring the material resources hidden beneath the land and water has been ceaseless since time immortal.In fact, our history is a chronicle of man’s achievements in harnessing nature’s bounty.With the ever

Revelation of Multinational Acquisition Theory for Chinese Oil Companies’ Overseas Investment

This paper introduces multinational acquisition theory and explains its importance in the context of Chinese petroleum industry and overseas acquisition activities of three major oil companies, CNPC, SINOPEC and CNOOC. Strategic options for their overseas investment are recommended and further assessed in terms of geopolitics.

An Analysis of Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism in China’s Neighboring Diplomacy

The Indochina Peninsula is of special and important significance to China's geopolitical strategy,which is the foothold of China's strategy in Southeast Asia and even the whole Asia-Pacific region,as well as the strategic springboard of*China s global development.In 2016,China led the establishment of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation mechanism,and achieved remarkable results in terms of institutional development,project implementation and the construction of international relations among member states in the short term.The establishment and rapid development of the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation is based on member states,strong willingness to cooperate.It also benefits from the rational design of their institutional structures,geographical advantages,strong and complementary economies,and close sociocultural similarities.On the other hand,the further development of the Lancang?Mekong Cooperation is facing many risks and challenges as a result of the complexities of the internal environment of the Indochina Peninsula and the geopolitical competition of extraterritorial forces in the region.In this regard,China should make more efforts to improve relevant institutional arrangements for the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation,broaden the areas and enrich the content of cooperation,coordinate with extraterritorial forces and increase the number of stakeholders.

地缘政治风险对中国农产品期货收益率的影响研究:基于TVP-VAR-SV模型的分析

本文使用TVP-VAR-SV模型,探讨中美地缘政治风险对中国农产品期货收益率的时变影响。研究结果表明:在短期内,地缘政治风险对农产品期货收益率的影响较为明显,而在中长期内,农产品期货收益率波动相对较小。不同农产品期货对地缘政治风险冲击反应不同,大豆、豆粕收益率受到地缘政治风险冲击波动最激烈,其他六种农产品期货则呈现出周期性特点。克里米亚事件、中美贸易摩擦和全球新冠疫情,三个不同时期的极端事件对农产品期货市场具有负向影响,不同期货品种受到的冲击存在异质性与滞后性。

Geopolitical Strategy for the Territorialism of Oceans and Seas

In the current international economic situation, the oceans and seas started to play a key role in the geopolitical balance of power between the coastal States. This article explores the concept of geopolitics, establishing a discussed relationship between such a concept and the considerations of coastal State and their territorialism policies. The concept of geopolitics cannot be simply understood as a condition of the position of a state in the international arena or its territorial ambition. The novel global ocean concept encompasses economic conditions facing the systemic combination of contemporary forces. Issues to be considered are maybe beyond the Convention on International Law of the Sea scenario in a dynamic economic and political international ocean.

A Geopolitical and Geovisualization Challenge: Increasing the Awareness of Global Environmental Change through Postage Stamp Issues

Global environmental change is one of the major distinguishing features associated with the contemporary world political map. It is significant not only because it illustrates the intersections between geopolitics and environmental change, but also because identifying the major environmental features and solving existing and future problems are primarily political in nature. Key features of global environmental change include global warming impacts on the poleward shifts in biodiversity and agricultural patterns, rising sea levels and human adjustments, changing coastal habitats, and promoting increased environmental awareness especially in urban clusters, where most people live. In the contemporary geopolitical and environmental world, visualization is a key feature not only used to inform both planetary inhabitants, environmental organizations and governments, but also serves as an effective policy, that is, to “show” or demonstrate effective changes and the need for action. States are key institutions in this thinking as they can both inform and address the impacts of global environmental change through various images: maps, earth-based photographs, satellite coverage, websites and educational venues including curriculum content and stamps. Visual geopolitics is already recognized as being an important source influencing public opinion, as evidenced in the attractive visible layouts, graphics, colors, often “seductive” designing of official websites. Postage stamps is an additional important and “informing” visible way that states inform both insiders and outsiders about how they “see” their place in the world. They also provide a view into how a state sees its “own” place in the world of environmental change and how it sees “the world beyond its own borders”. I introduce the concept of “visual geopolitics” and use recent postage stamp issues about global environmental change from a number of countries to illustrate how they are informing views of their own and the world about pressing environmental issues.

Strategic Impact of Brexit

Following Brexit, major changes are expected in the UK, the EU, and the relationship between the two, with far-reaching strategic effects on international politics that may develop truly unexpected aspects.Beyond the near-term challenges, the UK is likely to face new developmental opportunities in the long run. The internal power balance in the EU will undergo major changes, possibly leading to progress in diplomacy and defense but with increased internal suspicions, leading to a series of new contradictions. Regardless of its success, Brexit will long trouble the EU. A troubled UK may come to resent the EU, but it is also possible that a well-developed UK will create a development model that is different from those of the EU member states, setting an example for other members considering revaluating their relationship to the EU. The resulting instability may even change it to a free trade area. The UK is an important country, with global influence. Changes in UK-EU relations will have profound geopolitical consequences, and we can expect great changes in UK-American, European-American, UK-Russian, and European-Russian relations and larger relations between East and West. The competition and cooperation among major countries will gain complexity. Due to its close relationships with the UK and the EU, China will also be extensively and profoundly affected.

Study on the detection methods of S&T frontier from the multi-dimensional perspective

The development of network and information technology has brought changes to the information environment.The sources of information are becoming more diverse,and intelligence acquisition will be more complicated.The intelligence reflected by different dimensions of scientific and technologi-cal(S&T)data will have their own focuses.It has become inevitable to carry out the multi-dimen-sional research of S&T frontier,which is also a current research hotspot.This paper uses quantita-tive and qualitative research methods to conduct research and analysis of S&T frontier detection from three dimensions including S&T research projects,S&T papers and patents,and proposes related re-search methods and development tools.This work analyzes the S&T frontiers in the field of artificial intelligence and draws conclusions based on the analysis results of real and effective S&T data in three dimensions.

Analysis of Chemical Compositions of Portland Cement and Limestone from Four Geopolitical Zones of Nigeria

Cement, a major binding material in concrete making, influences the quality of concrete so produced with it;as such its chemistry dictates the chemistry of the concrete. Poor quality cement has recently been implicated as the main causes of incessant building collapses in Nigeria. The physicochemical analysis of limestone used in the production of various brands of Portland cement in four geopolitical zones of Nigeria (north east NE, north west NW, north central NC, and south west SW) was investigated using standard methods. Each of the limestone and cement samples was randomly collected from their respective sample points at the four different geopolitical zones of Nigeria. Each of the collected samples was ground and sieved to 2 mm mesh size. The limestone was rich in lime content that ranged from 45.91% ± 0.30% to 49.0% ± 0.19%. Among the cement samples, percent SiO2 ranged from 19.95 ± 0.25 (NW) to 20.18 ± 1.02 (NC), Al2O3 4.98 ± 0.18 (NW) to 5.82 ± 0.38 (NE), Fe2O3 2.76 ± 1.00 (NE) to 3.82 ± 0.21 (SW), CaO 60.18 ± 0.27 (NE) to 65.10 ± 0.98 (NC), MgO 1.93 ± 0.04 (NC) to 2.50 ± 0.10 (NE), SO3 0.93 ± 0.50 (NE) to 2.02 ± 0.13 (NW). The results showed that virtually all the cement samples analyzed conformed well to the BSEN 196-2 standard. However, the loss on ignition (LOI) deviated considerably (7.82% to 8.72%) from 4% maximum by the standard. Also, the lime saturation factor (99.70%) obtained for north central cement was slightly higher than the specified range of 92.0 to 98.0%. It could be deduced from this study that the various cements available in Nigerian market from the four geopolitical zones are of good quality. Nevertheless, other processes that lead to the production of a good concrete such as the mix ratio of cement, gravel, sand and water, use and quality of iron rods, and other building materials need to be professionally checked for quality assurance. The findings from this study can be a useful guide to the chemist, environmentalist, construction industry, and the general public on the quality of cements available in Nigerian market.

Seize the Opportunity for the Development of Cultural Industry

Culture and S&T complement each other. Advanced cultural concept is the ideological source of scientific and technological innovation, and scientific and technological innovation contributes to the transformation and upgrading of cultural industry and high-quality cultural development. At present, the integration of culture and S&T is becoming more and more extensive.

The Francization of the European Union and Its Implications

In recent years,the European Union(EU)has shown an obvious trend toward French sensibilities in terms of integration,economic development concept,and strategic culture.First,the monetary policies of the eurozone and the fiscal policies of the EU have become more redistributive in nature,reflecting the solidarity ideals of France.Second,France’s deep-rooted“economic patriotism”is translating more into industrial policy and protectionism at the EU level.Third,the French concepts of“European sovereignty”and“strategic autonomy”are becoming the geopolitical direction of the EU.The trend of Francization of the EU is not only the result of direct efforts by the Macron government,but also closely related to the world situation and internal changes of the EU,especially changes to the social and political ecology of the United States and Brexit.In general,the Francization of the EU is a long-term trend,but it is also a nonlinear development,which may be more or less evident coinciding with the changes in the French government,the changes within the EU,and the changes of the world situation at large.The ultimate outcome is also uncertain,leading either to a more federal EU or to fragmentation and backsliding as internal tensions rise.Regardless of the outcome,the Francization of the EU is certain to have profound geopolitical consequences.