Glacier runoff variation and its influence on river runoff during 1961–2006 in the Tarim River Basin, China

Using monthly precipitation and temperature data from national meteorological stations, 90 m resolution DEM and a digital vector map of modern glaciers from the Chinese Glacier Inventory, the glacier mass balance and glacier runoff in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), China, were estimated based on a monthly degree-day model for 1961–2006. The results suggest that the modified monthly degree-day model can simulate the long-term changes in glacier mass balance and glacier runoff, which have been confirmed by short-term observation data and other results in literatures. The characteristics and trends of mass balance and glacier runoff variation were analyzed. It was found that the mean annual glacier mass balance during 1961–2006 was ?139.2 mm per year and the cumulative mass balance over the 46 year period was ?6.4 m in the TRB. The glacier mass balance displayed a clear decreasing trend over the entire TRB during 1961–2006. The average annual glacier runoff in the TRB was 144.16×108 m3 for 1961–2006. The results also show that glacier runoff has increased in the last 46 years, especially since the 1990s with 85.7% of the increased river flow being derived from the increased glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass. Over the entire TRB, glacier runoff accounts for 41.5% of the total river flow during 1961–2006. The impact of glacier runoff on river flow has increased in the TRB as a result of glacier shrinkage.

Response of the snowmelt and glacier runoff to the climate warming-up in the last 40 years in Xinjiang Autonomous Region,China

Some analytical results of the measured runoff during 1950s to 1980s at outlet hydrological stations of 33 main rivers and climatic data collected from 84 meteorological stations in Xinjiang Autonomous Region are presented.Comparison of hydrological and climatic parameters before and after 1980 shows that the spring runoff for most rivers after 1980s increased obviously at a rate of about 10％, though the spring air temperature did not rise very much. Especially,an increment by 20％ for alpine runoff is observed during May when intensive snow melting occurred in the alpine region. To the contrary, the runoff in June decreased about 5％. When the summer or annual runoff is taken into account,direct relationship can be found between the change in runoff and the ratio of glacier-coverage, except the runoff in August when the glacier melting is strong, indicating that climatic warming has an obvious effect on the contribution of glacier melting to the runoff increase.

GLACIER MELTWATER RUNOFF IN CHINA AND ITS NOURISHMENT TO RIVER

Alpine glaciers are the natural solid reservoirs that releases amount of meltwater to supply streams every year. Glacier meltwater, adjuSting the yearly variation of stream runoff and making it trend to wards stableness, becomes the relible water resourc

Response of Zhadang Glacier runoffin Nam Co Basin,Tibet,to changes in air temperature and precipitation form

This paper describes 2007/2008 inter-annual changes in runoff from the Zhadang Glacier located on the northern slope of Nyainqêntanglha Range,Tibet,and analyzes their causes.Precipitation increased by 17.9%in summer months of 2008 compared with the same period in 2007,drainage basin runoff decreased by 33.3%,and glacial meltwater decreased by 53.8%.Change in positive accumulated air temperature explained approximately half of the inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater using a degree-day model.This suggests that the glacier is extremely sensitive to changes in air temperature.Energy balance analysis showed that change in glacier surface albedo,considered to be caused by difference in precipitation form,resulted in the large inter-annual difference in glacial meltwater.It was shown statistically that precipitation form in the summer months of 2007 was mainly rainfall which comprised 71.5%of total precipitation,while during the same period in 2008 rainfall accounted for 30.7%,with the majority of precipitation falling as snow.Precipitation form should be considered an independent factor when analyzing glacier sensitivity to climate change or forecasting the runoff from certain glaciers.

Regimes of Runoff Components on the Debris-covered Koxkar Glacier in Western China

By using a degree-day based distributed hydrological model, regimes of glacial runoff from the Koxkar glacier during 2007-2011 are simulated, and variations and characteristics of major hydrological components are discussed. The results show that the meltwater runoff contributes 67.4%, of the proglacial discharge, out of which snowmelt, clean ice melting, buried-ice ablation and ice-cliff backwasting account for 22.4%, 21.9%, 17.9% and 5.3% of the total melt runoff, respectively. Rainfall runoff is significant in mid-latitude glacierized mountain areas like Tianshan and Karakorum. In the Koxkar glacier catchment, about 11.5% of stream water is initiated from liquid precipitation. Spatial distributions for each glacial runoff component reveal the importance of climatic gradients, local topography and morphology on glacial runoff generation, and temporal variations of these components is closely related to the annual cycle of catchment meteorology and glacier storage. Four stages are recognized in the seasonal variations of glacier storage, reflecting changes in meltwater yields, meteorological conditions and drainage systems in the annual hydrological cycle.

A MODEL SIMULATING THE PROCESSES IN RESPONSES OF GLACIER AND RUNOFF TO CLIMATIC CHANGE─A Case Study of Glacier No.1 in the ■rümqi River, China

This paper presents a dynamic glacier model that simulates the processes in response of Glacier No. 1 in headwaters of the Urumqi River to various future climatic scenarios The results indicate that the Glader No. 1 will continue retreating if current climatic conditions prevail, until it reaches an equilibrium state of 1600 m in length after 700 to 800 years. If air temperature raise 1℃, the glacier would become a hanging glacier with a length of 300 m after 700 to 800 years. Due to its retreat, cooling function of the glacier would be weakened, resulting in the air temperature in glaciated area higher than that in ice-free areas. The results also indicate that the current glacier melt runoff is in higher value period in comparison with the runoff in the equilibrium state under the current climatic condition. If the air temperature continues increasing, however, the runoff would still increase to a new peak and then decrease rapidly.

Characteristics of climate and melt runoff in the Koxkar Glacier River Basin, south slope of the Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

Hydrology of the high glacierized region in the Tianshan Mountains is an important water resource for arid and semiarid areas of China,even Central Asia.The hydrological process is complex to understand,due to the high variability in cli mate and the lack of hydrometeorological data.Based on field observations,the present study analyzes the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the Koxkar Glacier River Basin during 20082011;and the factors influencing climate impact on glacier hydrology are discussed.The results show that precipitation at the terminus of the glacier was 426.2 mm,471.8 mm,624.9 mm,and 532 mm in 2008,2009,2010,and 2011,respectively.Discharge increases starting in May,reaches its highest value in July and August,and then starts to decrease.The mean annual discharge was 118.23×106 m3 during the four years observed,with 87.0%occurring in the ablation season(May September).During the study period,the runoff in August accounted for 29%of total streamflow,followed by July(22%)and June(14%).The runoff exhibited obviously high interannual variability from April to September,induced by drastic changes in climate factors.Discharge autocorrelations are very high for all the years.The climate factors show different influences on discharge.The highest correlation R between daily temperature and discharge was for a time lag of 23 days 2on the Koxkar Glacier(0.660.76).The daily depth of runoff to daily temperature and daily water vapor pressure had an R value of 0.56 and 0.69,respective ly,which could be described by an exponential function.A closer relationship is found between runoff and either tempera ture or water vapor pressure on a monthly scale;the R2 values are 0.65 and 0.78,respectively.The study helps us to under stand the mechanisms of the hydrological meteorological system of typical regional glaciers and to provide a reference for glacier-runoff simulations and water-resource management.

利用InSAR技术估计长江源冰川2000—2020年物质平衡

本文以获取近20年长江源冰川物质平衡,揭示冰川物质平衡影响因素及冰川物质流失对河流径流量影响为目标开展研究。利用InSAR技术和双站TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X影像生成两期覆盖长江源全域冰川的DEM,分别和SRTM DEM差分,去除高程差系统误差后获取长江源地区冰川2000—2012年和2000—2020年间的高分辨率冰川厚度变化,再结合冰川密度将厚度变化转为冰川物质平衡。估计结果与区域内冰川实地物质平衡监测结果仅相差0.03 m w.e.a^(-1),表明精度较高。结果显示长江源地区冰川在2000—2012年间的物质平衡为(-0.30±0.02)m w.e.a^(-1),在2000—2020年间为(-0.45±0.04)m w.e.a^(-1),2012—2020年间冰川消融相比2000—2012年间明显加速。推测夏季气温升高和夏季降水减少是冰川加速消融的主要原因。另外,长江源地区冰川消融速度存在从东南向西北递减的趋势,分析认为这一现象与西部地区温度更低,升温更慢,冰川海拔更高,积累区面积比例更高,冰面坡度更陡有关。2000—2020年间,沱沱河流域冰川物质损失量仅占沱沱河径流量的4.4%,而沱沱河与当曲流域的冰川物质损失量之和仅占通天河径流量的2.5%,表明当前冰川物质损失对长江上游径流量的影响较小。

极端生态环境水循环关键参量监测技术研究现状与进展

针对高寒和干旱极端生态环境水循环变化对国家生态安全的重要性,需要开展水循环关键参量监测设备与技术研究。本文重点围绕水循环关键参量野外原位/移动/非接触式、自动、稳定监测等技术难点,开展了一系列监测生态系统水-土-气-冰-雪的关键参量的新技术设备研究。通过构建基于物联网的天地一体化生态系统监测体系,打破行业技术壁垒,促进工程技术、地质学、计算机科学等不同领域的跨学科合作,共同开展极端生态环境水循环关键参量监测技术研究与创新,并将实现对重要生态功能区的大范围、全天候、立体化监测,对推进我国生态文明建设具有重要支撑作用,促进并实现我国生态监测技术的综合应用和发展。

Seasonal evolution of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems of a temperate glacier revealed by hydrological analysis

Englacial and subglacial drainage systems of temperate glaciers have a strong influence on glacier dynamics, glacier-induced floods, glacier-weathering processes, and runoff from glacierized drainage basins. Proglacial discharge is partly controlled by the geometry of the glacial drainage network and by the process of producing meltwater. The glacial-drainage system of some alpine glaciers has been characterized using a model based on proglacial discharge analysis. In this paper, we apply cross-correlation analysis to hourly hydro-climatic data collected from China＇s Hailuogou Glacier, a typical temperate glacier in Mt. Gongga, to study the seasonal status changes of the englacial and subglacial drainage systems by discharge-temperature （Q-T） time lag analy-sis. During early ablation season （April-May） of 2003, 2004 and 2005, the change of englacial and subglacial drainage system usually leads several outburst flood events, which are also substantiated by observing the leakage of supraglacial pond and cre-vasses pond water during field works in April, 2008. At the end of ablation season （October-December）, the glacial-drainage net-works become less hydro-efficient. Those events are evidenced by hourly hydro-process near the terminus of Hailuogou Glacier, and the analysis of Q-T time lags also can be a good indicator of those changes. However, more detailed observations or experi-ments, e.g. dye-tracing experiment and recording borehole water level variations, are necessary to describe the evolutionary status and processes of englacial and subglacial drainage systems evolution during ablation season.

The impacts of climate change on hydrology in a typical glacier region A case study in Hailuo Creek watershed of Mt.Gongga in China

The glaciers of the Hengduan Mountains play an important role in the hydrology processes of this region. In this study, the HBV Light model, which relies on a degree-day model to simulate glacier melting, was employed to simulate both glacier runoffand total runoff. The daily temperature and precipitation at the Hailuo Creek No. 1 Glacier from 1952 to 2009 were obtained from daily meteorological observed data at the glacier and from six national meteorological stations near the Hailuo Creek Basin. The daily air temperature, precipitation, runoff depth, and monthly potential evaporation in 1995, 1996, and 2002 were used to obtain a set of optimal parameters, and the annual total runoff and glacier runoff of the Hailuo Creek Glacier （1952--2009） were calculated using the HBV Light model. Results showed the average annual runoff in the Hailuo Creek Basin was 2,114 mm from 1952 to 2009, of which glacial melting accounted for about 1,078 mm. The river runoff in the Hailuo Creek catchment increased as a result of increased glacier runoff. Glacier runoff accounted for 51.1% of the Hailuo Creek stream flow in 1994 and increased to 72.6% in 2006. About 95% of the increased stream flow derived from the increased ~lacier runoff.

天山南坡阿克苏流域冰川物质平衡及其融水径流对气候变化的响应研究

冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。

Preliminary Results on Hydrological and Hydrochemical Features of Kartamak Glacier Area in Mt. Muztag Ata

The variations of the meltwater runoff draining from Kartamak Glacier in Mt. Muztag Ata in China were studied by using the measured hydrological data from 1 June to 25 August 2003. The meltwater runoff is mainly affected by ambient temperature and precipitation. Meltwater and precipitation samples were collected from 10 to 23 August 2003. Their pH, EC (electric conductivity) and the major ions (Na^+, K^+, Ca^(2+), Mg^(2+), Cl^-, NO_3^-, SO_~4^(2-)) were determined. pH values showed a positive correlation with EC values for all samples. Meltwater samples were slightly alkaline. Sulfate and calcium were the dominant anion and cation in the measured ions, respectively. All the ion concentrations had inverse relationships with runoff or water level. In order to discuss the origins of dissolved chemical substances in the glacial meltwater, a principal component analysis was carried out. The results showed that water-rock interaction determined the ion components of the meltwater.

Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin(SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1km2 are dominant(87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance also shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-5.521 mm a-1. The glacier total runoff has significantly(p<0.05)increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant(p<0.005) increase during2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant(p<0.001) increase,while the accumulation has no significant(p=0.05)trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, theglacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.

Identification of Ice Elevation Change of the Shuiguan River No.4 Glacier in the Qilian Mountains,China

GPS measurement,an effective method for surveying glacier surface topography,has been applied in some glaciers for many years.The Shuiguan River No.4 glacier,a small glacier with its area of 1.84 km2 in 1972,located in the east of the Qilian Mountains,China,was selected to study its ice elevation change using GPS measurement in 2007.This study was conducted on the ablation area with GPS-measured area 0.5 km2.The ice elevation change of the glacier was obtained by comparing the DEM obtained by a 1:50 000 topographic map made in 1972 with the DEM by GPS-measured data acquired in 2007.The differences of the two DEMs showed the thinning condition of the glacier was apparent.The mean thinning was 15±8 m with the mean thinning rate of 0.42±0.22 m a-1 for 1972-2007 in the measurement area,which equaled 0.38±0.20 m yr-1 in water equivalent(w.e.).The prominent thinning occurred on the south part of the glacier,which was the area near the glacier terminus with the maximum thinning of 41±8 m.Assuming the thinning value of 15±8 m for the glacier area below 4640 m a.s.l.,the wasting ice mass was calculated to be 6.4±3.2×10-3 km3 for 1972-2007,corresponding to 5.7±2.8×10-3 km3 w.e.,which meant that the montane runoff released by the glacier was at least 5.7±2.8×106 m3 between 1972-2007.

Impact of climate change on the streamflow in the glacierized Chu River Basin, Central Asia

Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin （CRB）, a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT）. The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models （GCMs） in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under three radiative forcing scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5）. In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identi- fied in the average annual runoff in glacier （-26.6% to -1.0%）, snow （-21.4% to ＋1.1%） and streamflow （-27.7% to -6.6%） for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection.

Glacier mass balance and its impacts on streamflow in a typical inland river basin in the Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China

Glaciers are known as natural ’’solid reservoirs’ ’, and they play a dual role between the composition of water resources and the river runoff regulation in arid and semi-arid areas of China. In this study, we used in situ observation data from Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, in combination with meteorological data from stations and a digital elevation model, to develop a distributed degree-day model for glaciers in the Urumqi River Basin to simulate glacier mass balance processes and quantify their effect on streamflow during 1980–2020. The results indicate that the mass loss and the equilibrium line altitude(ELA) of glaciers in the last 41 years had an increasing trend, with the average mass balance and ELA being-0.85(±0.32) m w.e./a(meter water-equivalent per year) and 4188 m a.s.l., respectively. The glacier mass loss has increased significantly during 1999–2020, mostly due to the increase in temperature and the extension of ablation season. During 1980–2011, the average annual glacier meltwater runoff in the Urumqi River Basin was 0.48×108 m3, accounting for 18.56% of the total streamflow. We found that the annual streamflow in different catchments in the Urumqi River Basin had a strong response to the changes in glacier mass balance, especially from July to August, and the glacier meltwater runoff increased significantly. In summary, it is quite possible that the results of this research can provide a reference for the study of glacier water resources in glacier-recharged basins in arid and semi-arid areas.

Glacier Changes and Their Effects on Northwest China

Though being considered strategically important in matters of national defense based on its abundance of natural resources,Northwest China is one of the most ecologically vulnerable areas in the country. As one of the region's important water sources,glaciers have gone through major changes due to climate change. An analysis of research results over the past 60 years reveals that the glaciers have been retreating in general to some degree in large river basins in Northwest China,but the rate of retreating varied largely among different regions,ranging from 0. 01% ·a^(-1) to 0. 75% ·a^(-1). Specifically,glaciers around the Lantsang River Basin and the Altay Mountains have been retreating fastest. The retreat of glaciers has already caused an increase in runoff in mountainous areas of Northwest China. Meanwhile,increases in the frequency of glacial flash floods and in the flood discharge will further enhance the probability of glacial lake outburst floods and ensuing disasters.

Glacier Mass-Balance Variation in China during the Past Half Century

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of temperature trend on glacier-mass balance, snow density, snowmelt, snow depth and runoff by using observations of nine glacier stations that covered most of the China over the period of 1979-2013. Trend analysis showed an increasing trend of temperature on all of the selected stations. On an average, temperature was increasing at the rate of 0.46/10a. The increasing trend of temperature showed a negative relationship with annual glacier-mass balance on most of the stations and caused a decrease in annual balance. Results of Pearson’s correlation analysis showed a highly significant negative correlation between temperature and snow density (correlation coefficient (CC = -0.661 at 0.01 significance level). There was a significant positive correlation between temperature and snowmelt (CC = 0.532 at 0.01 significance level). There was a significant negative correlation between temperature and snow depth (correlation coefficient (CC = -0.342 at 0.05 significance level). Moreover, there was a significant positive correlation between temperature and runoff (CC = 0.586 at 0.01 significance level). Increasing trend of temperature caused an increasing trend of annual snowmelt and runoff anomaly% at the rate of 24.82/10a and 9.87/10a, respectively. On the other hand, a declining trend in annual snow density and snow depth anomaly% was found at a rate of -5.32/10a and -1.93/10a, respectively. We concluded that the snow density, snowmelt and runoff are significantly sensitive to temperature in China. This contribution has provided information for further understanding of glacier variation and its influencing factors.

西藏冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量相关性分析

冰湖溃决事件频繁发生,严重阻碍西藏自治区区域社会经济发展,影响社会稳定。随着气候变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川径流量增大,冰湖溃决风险上升。基于西藏自治区东南地区的嘎隆拉冰川径流观测资料,分析了2017—2019年消融期间5—9月冰川径流变化特征,探讨了西藏1931—2020年冰湖溃决事件发生的频次与径流峰值流量的关系。结果表明:在1931—2020年,西藏地区共发生冰湖溃决事件32次,集中在5—9月发生;在旬变化上,极大值频次呈单峰结构,在7月上旬频次最高;冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量显著相关,相关系数为0.673,随着径流增大,冰湖溃决发生的频次逐渐增大。在气候变暖的背景下,冰川融化引发的冰湖溃决灾害应引起重视,要加强冰川消融径流观测及冰湖水位的监测,进行冰湖溃决洪水预报。