Glacier area change and its impact on runoff in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020

Understanding the distribution and dynamics of glaciers is of great significance to the management and allocation of regional water resources and socio-economic development in arid regions of Northwest China.In this study,based on 36 Landsat images,we extracted the glacier boundaries in the Manas River Basin,Northwest China from 2000 to 2020 using eCognition combined with band operation,GIS(geographic information system)spatial overlay techniques,and manual visual interpretation.We further analyzed the distribution and variation characteristics of glacier area,and simulated glacial runoff using a distributed degree-day model to explore the regulation of runoff recharge.The results showed that glacier area in the Manas River Basin as a whole showed a downward trend over the past 21 a,with a decrease of 10.86%and an average change rate of–0.54%/a.With the increase in glacier scale,the number of smaller glaciers decreased exponentially,and the number and area of larger glaciers were relatively stable.Glacier area showed a normal distribution trend of increasing first and then decreasing with elevation.About 97.92%of glaciers were distributed at 3700–4800 m,and 48.11%of glaciers were observed on the northern and northeastern slopes.The retreat rate of glaciers was the fastest(68.82%)at elevations below 3800 m.There was a clear rise in elevation at the end of glaciers.Glaciers at different slope directions showed a rapid melting trend from the western slope to the southern slope then to the northern slope.Glacial runoff in the basin showed a fluctuating upward trend in the past 21 a,with an increase rate of 0.03×10^(8) m^(3)/a.The average annual glacial runoff was 4.80×10^(8) m^(3),of which 33.31%was distributed in the ablation season(June–September).The average annual contribution rate of glacial meltwater to river runoff was 35.40%,and glacial runoff accounted for 45.37%of the total runoff during the ablation season.In addition,precipitation and glacial runoff had complementary regulation patterns for river runoff.The findings can provide a scientific basis for water resource management in the Manas River Basin and other similar arid inland river basins.

Glacial Runoff Likely Reached Peak in the Mountainous Areas of the Shiyang River Basin,China

Glacier runoff in mountain areas of the Shiyang River Basin(SRB), Qilian Mountain, western China is important for the river and water supply downstream. Small glaciers with area of less than 1km2 are dominant(87%) in the SRB. A modified monthly degree-day model was applied to quantify the glacier mass balance, area, and changes in glacier runoff in the SRB during 1961–2050. The comparison between the simulated and observed snow line altitude, annual glacier runoff, and mass balance from1961 to 2008 suggests that the degree-day model may be used to analyze the long-term change of glacier mass balance and runoff in the SRB. The glacier accumulation shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-0.830 mm a-1. The mass balance also shows a significant(p<0.01) decreasing trend of-5.521 mm a-1. The glacier total runoff has significantly(p<0.05)increased by 0.079 × 105 m3 from 1961 to 2008. The monthly precipitation and air temperature are projected to significant(p<0.005) increase during2015 to 2050 under three different scenarios. The ablation is projected to significant(p<0.001) increase,while the accumulation has no significant(p=0.05)trend. The mass balance is projected to decrease, theglacier area is projected to decrease, and the glacier runoff depth is projected to increase. However, the glacier total runoff is projected to decrease. These results indicate that the glacier total runoff over glacier areas observed in 1970 reached its peak in the 2000 s. This will exacerbate the contradiction between water supply and downstream water demands in the SRB.

Climate change and glacier area variations in China during the past half century

Glacier variations in the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges in China affect the livelihood of over one billion people who depend on water from the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus rivers originating in these areas. Based on the results of the present study and published literature, we found that the glaciers shrank ：5.7% in area from 1963 to 20：0 with an annual area change of -0.33%. The shrinkage generally decreased from peripheral mountain ranges to the interior of Tibet. The linear trends of annual air temperature and precipitation at 147 stations were 0.36℃（10a）^-1 and 8.96 mm （10a）^-1 respectively from 1961 to 2010. The shrinkage of glaciers was well correlated with the rising temperature and the spatial patterns of the shrinkage were influenced by other factors superimposed on the rising temperature such as glacier size, type, elevation, debris cover and precipitation.

Response of glacier area variation to climate change in the Kaidu-Kongque river basin,Southern Tianshan Mountains during the last 20 years

Glaciers are crucial water resources for arid inland rivers in Northwest China.In recent decades,glaciers are largely experiencing shrinkage under the climate-warming scenario,thereby exerting tremendous influences on regional water resources.The primary role of understudying watershed scale glacier changes under changing climatic conditions is to ensure sustainable utilization of regional water resources,to prevent and mitigate glacier-related disasters.This study maps the current(2020)distribution of glacier boundaries across the Kaidu-Kongque river basin,south slope of Tianshan Mountains,and monitors the spatial evolution of glaciers over five time periods from 2000-2020 through thresholded band ratios approach,using 25 Landsat images at 30 m resolution.In addition,this study attempts to understand the role of climate characteristics for variable response of glacier area.The results show that the total area of glaciers was 398.21 km^(2)in 2020.The glaciers retreated by about 1.17 km^(2)/a(0.26%/a)from 2000 to 2020.The glaciers were reducing at a significantly rapid rate between 2000 and 2005,a slow rate from 2005 to 2015,and an accelerated rate during 2015-2020.The meteorological data shows slight increasing trends of mean annual temperature(0.02℃/a)and annual precipitation(2.07 mm/a).The correlation analysis demonstrates that the role of temperature presents more significant correlation with glacier recession than precipitation.There is a temporal hysteresis in the response of glacier change to climate change.Increasing trend of temperature in summer proves to be the driving force behind the Kaidu-Kongque basin glacier recession during the recent 20 years.

Using Landsat images to monitor changes in the snow-covered area of selected glaciers in northern Pakistan

Landsat satellite images were used to map and monitor the snow-covered areas of four glaciers with different aspects(Passu: 36.473°N, 74.766°E;Momhil: 36.394°N, 75.085°E; Trivor: 36.249°N,74.968°E; and Kunyang: 36.083°N, 75.288°E) in the upper Indus basin, northern Pakistan, from 1990-2014. The snow-covered areas of the selected glaciers were identified and classified using supervised and rule-based image analysis techniques in three different seasons. Accuracy assessment of the classified images indicated that the supervised classification technique performed slightly better than the rule-based technique. Snow-covered areas on the selected glaciers were generally reduced during the study period but at different rates. Glaciers reached maximum areal snow coverage in winter and premonsoon seasons and minimum areal snow coverage in monsoon seasons, with the lowest snow-covered area occurring in August and September. The snowcovered area on Passu glacier decreased by 24.50%,3.15% and 11.25% in the pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. Similarly, the other three glaciers showed notable decreases in snow-covered area during the pre-and post-monsoon seasons; however, no clear changes were observed during monsoon seasons. During pre-monsoon seasons, the eastward-facing glacier lost comparatively more snow-covered area than the westward-facing glacier. The average seasonal glacier surface temperature calculated from the Landsat thermal band showed negative correlations of-0.67,-0.89,-0.75 and-0.77 with the average seasonal snowcovered areas of the Passu, Momhil, Trivor and Kunyang glaciers, respectively, during pre-monsoon seasons. Similarly, the air temperature collected from a nearby meteorological station showed an increasing trend, indicating that the snow-covered area reduction in the region was largely due to climate warming.

Spatiotemporal variations in glacier area and surface velocity of the northern Antarctic Peninsula during 2018-2022

Ice sheet serves as a crucial indicator for assessing climate change.Mass loss in recent remote sensing-based studies indicated that the Antarctic Peninsula has rapid rates of glacier retreat and speed up of surface velocity.However,observations of seasonal variability of ice speed are limited,and glacier-area changes require multi-temporal monitoring.This study investigated the changes in area and surface velocities of∼375 glaciers on the northern Antarctic Peninsula(NAP)utilizing satellite images acquired by the Sentinel 1&2 satellites during 2018-2022.The results indicate that the glacier area reduced by approximately 166.1±44.2 km^(2)(-0.2%±0.1%per year)during the study period,with an acceleration after 2020(-0.4%±0.3%per year),and the most dramatic reduction happened on the eastern NAP.The maximum annual ice speeds on the NAP generally exceeded 3500 m per year,while the ice speeds in 2021 were the highest(exceeded 4210 m per year).The ice speed variability in austral autumn was higher than in other seasons,meanwhile the summer ice speeds showed an increasing trend.The glacier G012158E47018N,McNeile Glacier,glacier G299637E64094S and Drygalski Glacier showed the most remarkable ice speed variations represented by high daily velocities and strong fluctuations on their termini.Our results demonstrated that the variations in glacier area and seasonal ice speed on the NAP were responsive to the ice-ocean-atmosphere processes.Therefore,seasonal velocity and area variations should be considered when conducting accurate mass balance calculations,model validations and change mechanism analyses under climate warming scenarios.

Glacier variations and their response to climate change in an arid inland river basin of Northwest China

Glaciers are a critical freshwater resource of river recharge in arid areas around the world.In recent decades,glaciers have shown evidence of retreat due to climate change,and the accelerated ablation of glaciers and associated impacts on water resources have received widespread attention.Glacier variations result from climate change,so they can serve as an indicator of climate change.Considering the climatic differences in different elevation ranges,it is worthwhile to explore whether different responses exist between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone.In this study,we selected a typical arid inland river basin(Sugan Lake Basin)in the western Qilian Mountains of Northwest China to analyze the glacier variations and their response to climate change.The glacier area data from 1989 to 2016 were delineated using Landsat Thematic Mapper(TM),Enhanced TM+(ETM+)and Operational Land Imager(OLI)images.We compared the relationships between glacier area and air temperature at seven meteorological stations in the glacier-covered areas and in the Sugan Lake Basin,and further analyzed the relationship between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in the elevation range of 4700–5500 m a.s.l.by the linear regression method and correlation analysis.In addition,based on the linear regression relationship established between glacier area and air temperature in each elevation zone,we predicted glacier areas under future climate scenarios during the periods of 2046–2065 and 2081–2100.The results indicate that the glaciers experienced a remarkable shrinkage from 1989 to 2016 with a shrinkage rate of–1.61 km^2/a(–0.5%/a),and the rising temperature is the decisive factor dominating glacial retreat;there is a significant negative linear correlation between glacier area and mean air temperature of the glacier surfaces in July–August in each elevation zone from 1989 to 2016.The variations in glaciers are far less sensitive to changes in precipitation than to changes in air temperature.Due to the influence of climate and topographic conditions,the distribution of glacier area and the rate of glacier ablation first increased and then decreased in different elevation zones.The trend in glacier shrinkage will continue because air temperature will continue to increase in the future,and the result of glacier retreat in each elevation zone will be slightly slower than that in the entire study area.Quantitative glacier research can more accurately reflect the response of glacier variations to climate change,and the regression relationship can be used to predict the areas of glaciers under future climate scenarios.These conclusions can offer effective references for assessing glacier variations and their response to climate change in arid inland river basins in Northwest China as well as other similar regions in the world.

Glacier variations and rising temperature in the Mt.Kenya since the Last Glacial Maximum

High-resolution imagery can be used to reconstruct former glacier boundaries through the identification of glacial erosional and sedimentary geomorphology. We employed moraine mapping and the accumulation–area ratio method(AAR), in conjunction with Landsat, Google Earth, and SRTM imagery, to reconstruct glacier boundaries and equilibrium-line altitudes(ELAs) for Mt. Kenya in the Last Glacial Maximum(LGM), the Little Ice Age(LIA), and at present. Our results show that the areas of Lewis Glacier and the Tyndall-I glacier system were 0.678 km^2 and 0.390 km^2, respectively, during the maximum of LIA. Those mean that the both glaciers have shrunken by 87.0% and 88.7%, respectively since the LIA. Area change ratios for each glacier were significantly larger in the period of 2000 through 2015 than the former periods, indicating that glacier recession has accelerated. Continuous ice loss in this region has been driven by rising temperature and fluctuating precipitation. Linear regression data for Lewis glacier show that mass balance sensitivity to dry season temperature was –315 mm w.e./℃, whereas the sensitivity to dry season precipitation was 5.2 mm w.e./mm. Our data also show that the ELA on the western slope of Mt. Kenya rose by 716-816 m from the LGM to the modern era, corresponding to that temperature rose by 5.2℃-6.5℃.

Ice thickness distribution and volume estimation of Burqin Glacier No.18 in the Chinese Altay Mountains

Information on the thickness distribution and volume of glacier ice is highly important for glaciological applications;however,detailed measurements of the ice thickness of many glaciers in the Chinese Altay Mountains remain lacking.Burqin Glacier No.18 is a northeast-orientated cirque glacier located on the southern side of the Altay Mountains.This study used PulseEKKO®PRO 100A enhancement ground-penetrating radar(GPR)to survey the ice thickness and volume of Burqin Glacier No.18 in summer 2018.Together with GPR surveying,spatial distributed profiles of the GPR measurements were concurrently surveyed using the real-time kinematic(RTK)global navigation satellite system(GNSS,Unistrong E650).Besides,we used QuickBird,WorldView-2,and Landsat TM to delineate accurate boundary of the glacier for undertaking estimation of glacier ice volume.GPR measurements revealed that the basal topography of profile B1-B2 was flat,the basal topography of profile C1-C2 presented a V-type form,and the basal topography of profile D1-D2 had a typical U-type topographic feature because the bedrock near the central elevation of the glacier was relatively flat.The longitudinal profile A1-A2 showed a ladder-like distribution.Glacier ice was thin at the terminus and its thickness increased gradually from the elevation of approximately 2620 m a.s.l.along the main axis of the glacier tongue with an average value of 80(±1)m.The average ice thickness of the glacier was determined as 27(±2)m and its total ice volume was estimated at 0.031(±0.002)km3.Interpretation of remote sensing images indicated that during 1989–2016,the glacier area reduced from 1.30 to 1.17 km2(reduction of 0.37%/a)and the glacier terminus retreated at the rate of 8.48 m/a.The mean ice thickness of Burqin Glacier No.18 was less than that of the majority of other observed glaciers in China,especially those in the Qilian Mountains and Central Chinese Tianshan Mountains;this is probably attributable to differences in glacier type and climatic setting.

Spatiotemporal changes of typical glaciers and their responses to climate change in Xinjiang,Northwest China

Glaciers are highly sensitive to climate change and are undergoing significant changes in mid-latitudes.In this study,we analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of typical glaciers and their responses to climate change in the period of 1990-2015 in 4 different mountainous sub-regions in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of Northwest China:the Bogda Peak and Karlik Mountain sub-regions in the Tianshan Mountains;the Yinsugaiti Glacier sub-region in the Karakorum Mountains;and the Youyi Peak sub-region in the Altay Mountains.The standardized snow cover index(NDSI)and correlation analysis were used to reveal the glacier area changes in the 4 sub-regions from 1990 to 2015.Glacial areas in the Bogda Peak,Karlik Mountain,Yinsugaiti Glacier,and Youyi Peak sub-regions in the period of 1990-2015 decreased by 57.7,369.1,369.1,and 170.4 km^(2),respectively.Analysis of glacier area center of gravity showed that quadrant changes of glacier areas in the 4 sub-regions moved towards the origin.Glacier area on the south aspect of the Karlik Mountain sub-region was larger than that on the north aspect,while glacier areas on the north aspect of the other 3 sub-regions were larger than those on the south aspect.Increased precipitation in the Karlik Mountain sub-region inhibited the retreat of glaciers to a certain extent.However,glacier area changes in the Bogda Peak and Youyi Peak sub-regions were not sensitive to the increased precipitation.On a seasonal time scale,glacier area changes in the Bogda Peak,Karlik Mountain,Yinsugaiti Glacier,and Youyi Peak sub-regions were mainly caused by accumulated temperature in the wet season;on an annual time scale,the correlation coefficient between glacier area and annual average temperature was-0.72 and passed the significance test at P<0.05 level in the Karlik Mountain sub-region.The findings of this study can provide a scientific basis for water resources management in the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China in the context of global warming.

Glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background during the past half century

Based on the glacier area variation records in the typical regions of China moni-tored by remote sensing, as well as the meteorological data of air temperature and precipitation from 139 stations and the 0℃ isotherm height from 28 stations, the glacier area shrinkage in China and its climatic background in the past half century was discussed. The initial glacier area calculated in this study was 23,982 km2 in the 1960s/1970s, but the present area was only 21,893 km2 in the 2000s. The area-weighted shrinking rate of glacier was 10.1%, and the interpolated annual percentage of area changes （APAC） of glacier was 0.3% a–1 since 1960. The high APAC was found at the Ili River Basin and the Junggar Interior Basin around the Tianshan Mountains, the Ob River Basin around the Altay Mountains, the Hexi Interior Basin around the Qilian Mountains, etc. The retreat of glacier was affected by the climatic background, and the influence on glacier of the slight-increased precipitation was counteracted by the significant warming in summer.

Glacier area variation and climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960, the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically. As a result, the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years, which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China （GIC）. The annual percentage of area changes （APAC） of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period. The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins, but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat, generally. According to the 14 meteorological sta- tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains, both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·（10a）^-1 and 11 mm·（10a）^-1, respectively. The temperature in the dry seasons （from November to March） increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·（10a）^-1, but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·（10a）^-1. While the temperature in the wet seasons （from April to October） grows at a rate of 0.25℃·（10a）^-1, but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·（10a）^-1, The annual and seasonal climatic trends accelerate the retreat of glaciers.