Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to i...Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to improve our understanding of glacial vulnerability to climate change to establish adaptation strategies. A glacial numerical model is developed using spatial principle component analysis(SPCA) supported by remote sensing(RS) and geographical information system(GIS) technologies. The model contains nine factorsdslope, aspect, hillshade,elevation a.s.l., air temperature, precipitation, glacial area change percentage, glacial type and glacial area, describing topography, climate, and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale, and in the 2030 s and 2050 s based on projections of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario and of glacier change in the 21 st century. Glacial vulnerability is graded into five levels: potential, light, medial, heavy, and very heavy, using natural breaks classification(NBC). The spatial distribution of glacial vulnerability and its temporal changes in the 21 st century for the RCP6.0 scenario are analyzed, and the factors influencing vulnerability are discussed. Results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and41.2% of glacial areas fall into the levels of heavy and very heavy vulnerability in the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and the high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability are projected to decline in the 2030 s and 2050 s, but a declining trend is still high in some regions. In addition to topographical factors, variation in precipitation in the 2030 s and 2050s is found to be crucial.展开更多
Global climate change is now widely recognized, although some uncertainties remain. Being sensitive to climatic conditions, agriculture will be influenced by climatic changes. The major effects can be generalized as c...Global climate change is now widely recognized, although some uncertainties remain. Being sensitive to climatic conditions, agriculture will be influenced by climatic changes. The major effects can be generalized as changes in the geographical limits to agriculture, changes in crop yields and impacts on agricultural systems. Chinese agriculture is particularly sensitive to climatic change and variability. Given prospects for huge population increase and the already intense utilization of resources, there is a serious threat to China’s abilily to feed itself. Thus, adaptation and adjustment to climatic change are urgently in need of attention. Climate is inherently variable and uncertain. so researchers should recognize this reality of climate in assessing implication for agriculture. A variety of approaches are suggested to reduce food production’s when appraising the effect of climate change on vulnerability to climate.展开更多
Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production,but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters.Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province i...Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production,but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters.Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province in China as the case area,the paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of agricultural vulnerability to drought in China’s agro-pastoral ecotone in the period 2000 to2020.The results show that:1)the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City has shifted from high vulnerability in the period2000–2010 to low vulnerability in the period 2011–2020.2)There exist obvious spatio-temporal differences of the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City during the research period.3)Four sensitive events and 14 resilient events were identified in the research and the crops of Yulin had become more resilient to drought.Finally,the paper put forward with policy implications to make adaptive strategies of agriculture to climate change in China’s agro-pastoral ecotone in the future,e.g.,carrying out agricultural zoning based on agricultural production conditions,intensifying the construction of disaster prevention and relief system,and integrating with modern agricultural technology to develop new type agriculture.展开更多
Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment...Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index(MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. Vegetation stability, defined as the proportion of intact natural vegetation that remains unchanged under changing climate, was used together with vegetation productivity trend to represent the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems. Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model.Results:(1) Future(2017–2100) climate change will leave 7.4%(under RCP 4.5) and 57.4% of(under RCP 8.5) of areas under high or very high vulnerable climate exposure;(2) in terms of vegetation stability, nearly 45% of the study area will show high or very high vulnerability under both RCPs. Beside the impacts of human disturbance on natural vegetation coverage(vegetation intactness), climate change will cause obvious latitudinal movements in vegetation distribution, but the direction of movements under two RCPs were opposite due to the difference in water availability;(3) vegetation productivity in most areas will generally increase and remain a low vulnerability in the future;(4) an assessment based on the above three aspects together indicated that future climate change will generally have an adverse impact on all ecosystems in Southwestern China, with non-vulnerable areas account for only about 3% of the study area under both RCPs. However, compared with RCP 4.5, the areas with mid-and highvulnerability under RCP 8.5 scenario increased by 13% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion: Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. Based on new climate indicators and improved vulnerability assessment rules, our method provides an extra option for a more comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, and should be further tested at larger spatial scales in order to provide references for regional, or even global, ecosystem conservation works.展开更多
Arid and semi-arid areas are the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Clear understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions and the ecosystem vulnerability is important...Arid and semi-arid areas are the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Clear understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions and the ecosystem vulnerability is important for ecosystem management under the background of climate change. In this study, we conducted a vulnerability assessment on various ecosystems from 1982 to 2013 in western China with large areas of arid and semi-arid lands based on the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) data and climate data. The results indicated that grasslands were the most vulnerable ecosystem to climate change in western China, especially for those in Tibetan Plateau. Croplands in oases were not vulnerable to climate change compared to rain-fed croplands in semi-arid regions (e.g. Gansu and Inner Mongolia), which was attributed to the well-developed drip irrigation technology in oases. Desert and Gobi ecosystems were slightly vulnerable to climate change during the past several decades. The assessment results, as revealed in this study, can provide a reference for taking appropriate actions to protect the ecosystems in western China.展开更多
Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic developm...Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin's water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin's water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.展开更多
Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and...Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.展开更多
This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadl...This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.展开更多
China's glacier water resources(GWRs)are not only indispensable suppliers of fresh water for humans living in large domestic areas but also affect the water supply to downstream neighbouring countries.Therefore,it...China's glacier water resources(GWRs)are not only indispensable suppliers of fresh water for humans living in large domestic areas but also affect the water supply to downstream neighbouring countries.Therefore,it is crucial to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal(mis-)matches between the supply and demand potentials of China's GWRs and the combined supply and demand effects in the 21st century to enable regional sustainable development.To facilitate such research,in this study,we first regionalized the importance of China's GWRs in terms of the supply potential and downstream human dependence to reveal the spatial(mis-)matches between supply and demand potentials.Then,changes in the service potential of glacier meltwater and in population dynamics,as well as their temporal(mis-)matches and associated opportunities and risks,were further assessed at the river basin scale.The results showed that GWR plays an important role in 4 of 16 macroscale glacier-fed basins(i.e.,Tarim,Junggar,Ili,and Zangxi)and 11 of 37 subbasins within the China region due to higher supply potential and demand potential in those basins.The importance of China's GWRs increases dramatically when taking the demand potential of downstream countries into account,especially in the Ganges and Indus river basins.The peaks in meltwater runoff from the most glacierized basins of the eastern Tianshan Mountains,eastern Qilian Mountains,and southeastern Tibetan Plateau of China occur slightly earlier than the projected peak population(around 2030)under the mid-range Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP245),leading to a compound risk in terms of decreasing meltwater supply and increasing human dependence at the end of the 2020s.However,the peak meltwater is expected to occur later than the peak population in the Tarim,Qiangtang Plateau,and Qaidam basins.The opportunities offered by the increase in meltwater can relieve the water resource pressure for those populations under water-stressed conditions.Greater attention should also be paid to water shortage risks in the transboundary river basins,especially in the Indus and Ganges basins,because the peak meltwater within China is generally expected to occur sooner than the projected peak population of downstream countries.This study provides an effective planning and decision-making basis for the full utilization of China's GWRs and adaptation when glacier runoff declines.展开更多
基金supported by grants from the National Basic Research Program of China (2013CBA01808)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41271088)
文摘Mountain glaciers in China are an important water source for both China and adjoining countries, and therefore their adaptation to glacier change is crucial in relation to maintaining populations. This study aims to improve our understanding of glacial vulnerability to climate change to establish adaptation strategies. A glacial numerical model is developed using spatial principle component analysis(SPCA) supported by remote sensing(RS) and geographical information system(GIS) technologies. The model contains nine factorsdslope, aspect, hillshade,elevation a.s.l., air temperature, precipitation, glacial area change percentage, glacial type and glacial area, describing topography, climate, and glacier characteristics. The vulnerability of glaciers to climate change is evaluated during the period of 1961-2007 on a regional scale, and in the 2030 s and 2050 s based on projections of air temperature and precipitation changes under the IPCC RCP6.0 scenario and of glacier change in the 21 st century. Glacial vulnerability is graded into five levels: potential, light, medial, heavy, and very heavy, using natural breaks classification(NBC). The spatial distribution of glacial vulnerability and its temporal changes in the 21 st century for the RCP6.0 scenario are analyzed, and the factors influencing vulnerability are discussed. Results show that mountain glaciers in China are very vulnerable to climate change, and41.2% of glacial areas fall into the levels of heavy and very heavy vulnerability in the period 1961-2007. This is mainly explained by topographical exposure and the high sensitivity of glaciers to climate change. Trends of glacial vulnerability are projected to decline in the 2030 s and 2050 s, but a declining trend is still high in some regions. In addition to topographical factors, variation in precipitation in the 2030 s and 2050s is found to be crucial.
文摘Global climate change is now widely recognized, although some uncertainties remain. Being sensitive to climatic conditions, agriculture will be influenced by climatic changes. The major effects can be generalized as changes in the geographical limits to agriculture, changes in crop yields and impacts on agricultural systems. Chinese agriculture is particularly sensitive to climatic change and variability. Given prospects for huge population increase and the already intense utilization of resources, there is a serious threat to China’s abilily to feed itself. Thus, adaptation and adjustment to climatic change are urgently in need of attention. Climate is inherently variable and uncertain. so researchers should recognize this reality of climate in assessing implication for agriculture. A variety of approaches are suggested to reduce food production’s when appraising the effect of climate change on vulnerability to climate.
基金Under the auspices of National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42171208)。
文摘Agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China is the prominent area for agricultural production,but it is also the most typical ecological fragile area with frequent drought disasters.Taking Yulin City at Shaanxi Province in China as the case area,the paper aims to investigate the spatio-temporal changes of agricultural vulnerability to drought in China’s agro-pastoral ecotone in the period 2000 to2020.The results show that:1)the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City has shifted from high vulnerability in the period2000–2010 to low vulnerability in the period 2011–2020.2)There exist obvious spatio-temporal differences of the agricultural vulnerability to drought in Yulin City during the research period.3)Four sensitive events and 14 resilient events were identified in the research and the crops of Yulin had become more resilient to drought.Finally,the paper put forward with policy implications to make adaptive strategies of agriculture to climate change in China’s agro-pastoral ecotone in the future,e.g.,carrying out agricultural zoning based on agricultural production conditions,intensifying the construction of disaster prevention and relief system,and integrating with modern agricultural technology to develop new type agriculture.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0502104,No. 2017YFC0503901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31870430)。
文摘Background: Global warming has brought many negative impacts on terrestrial ecosystems, which makes the vulnerability of ecosystems one of the hot issues in current ecological research. Here, we proposed an assessment method based on the IPCC definition of vulnerability. The exposure to future climate was characterized using a moisture index(MI) that integrates the effects of temperature and precipitation. Vegetation stability, defined as the proportion of intact natural vegetation that remains unchanged under changing climate, was used together with vegetation productivity trend to represent the sensitivity and adaptability of ecosystems. Using this method, we evaluated the vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China under two future representative concentration pathways(RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) with MC2 dynamic global vegetation model.Results:(1) Future(2017–2100) climate change will leave 7.4%(under RCP 4.5) and 57.4% of(under RCP 8.5) of areas under high or very high vulnerable climate exposure;(2) in terms of vegetation stability, nearly 45% of the study area will show high or very high vulnerability under both RCPs. Beside the impacts of human disturbance on natural vegetation coverage(vegetation intactness), climate change will cause obvious latitudinal movements in vegetation distribution, but the direction of movements under two RCPs were opposite due to the difference in water availability;(3) vegetation productivity in most areas will generally increase and remain a low vulnerability in the future;(4) an assessment based on the above three aspects together indicated that future climate change will generally have an adverse impact on all ecosystems in Southwestern China, with non-vulnerable areas account for only about 3% of the study area under both RCPs. However, compared with RCP 4.5, the areas with mid-and highvulnerability under RCP 8.5 scenario increased by 13% and 16%, respectively.Conclusion: Analyses of future climate exposure and projected vegetation distribution indicate widespread vulnerability of ecosystems in Southwestern China, while vegetation productivity in most areas will show an increasing trend to the end of twenty-first century. Based on new climate indicators and improved vulnerability assessment rules, our method provides an extra option for a more comprehensive evaluation of ecosystem vulnerability, and should be further tested at larger spatial scales in order to provide references for regional, or even global, ecosystem conservation works.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(2012CB956204)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41101249)
文摘Arid and semi-arid areas are the most vulnerable regions to climate change. Clear understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions and the ecosystem vulnerability is important for ecosystem management under the background of climate change. In this study, we conducted a vulnerability assessment on various ecosystems from 1982 to 2013 in western China with large areas of arid and semi-arid lands based on the Time-Integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (TINDVI) data and climate data. The results indicated that grasslands were the most vulnerable ecosystem to climate change in western China, especially for those in Tibetan Plateau. Croplands in oases were not vulnerable to climate change compared to rain-fed croplands in semi-arid regions (e.g. Gansu and Inner Mongolia), which was attributed to the well-developed drip irrigation technology in oases. Desert and Gobi ecosystems were slightly vulnerable to climate change during the past several decades. The assessment results, as revealed in this study, can provide a reference for taking appropriate actions to protect the ecosystems in western China.
基金supported by the Western Project Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Nos.KZCX-XB2-04-04,KZCX2-XB2-09-6)
文摘Water resources of inland river basins of arid Northwest China will be profoundly affected by future accelerated glacier melt. Based on scenarios of climate warming, accelerated glacier melt and socioeconomic development in the future, vulnerability of the Yarkent River Basin water resources for 2010-2030 is evaluated quantitatively using the indicator of water deficiency ratio. Results show that the quantity of the basin's water resources will continuously increase over the next 20 years, mainly due to the effect of climate warming and accelerated glacier melt. But, in the next 10 years, the basin will have a deficient water status, and the water resource system will be quite vulnerable. This is due to an increased water demand from rapidly increasing socioeco- nomic development and a lack of low water-use efficiency in the near future. After about 2020, water supply will outstrip demand, greatly relieving the basin's water deficient due to increased water resources and the advancement of water-saving technology. Contrast to the hypothetical situation of unchanged glacier melt, climate wanning and resulting accelerated glacier melt may play a role in relieving the supply-demand strain to some extent.
基金Key Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41530749 Science and Technology Project of Sichuan Provincial Department of Education,No.15ZB0023+1 种基金 Youth Projects of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41301196,No.41501202 Chongqing Foundation and Advanced Research Project,No.cstc2014jcyj A0808
文摘Using the Integrated Biosphere Simulator, a dynamic vegetation model, this study initially simulated the net primary productivity(NPP) dynamics of China's potential vegetation in the past 55 years(1961–2015) and in the future 35 years(2016–2050). Then, taking the NPP of the potential vegetation in average climate conditions during 1986–2005 as the basis for evaluation, this study examined whether the potential vegetation adapts to climate change or not. Meanwhile, the degree of inadaptability was evaluated. Finally, the NPP vulnerability of the potential vegetation was evaluated by synthesizing the frequency and degrees of inadaptability to climate change. In the past 55 years, the NPP of desert ecosystems in the south of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the north of China and in western Tibetan Plateau was prone to the effect of climate change. The NPP of most forest ecosystems was not prone to the influence of climate change. The low NPP vulnerability to climate change of the evergreen broad-leaved and coniferous forests was observed. Furthermore, the NPP of the desert ecosystems in the north of the Tianshan Mountains and grassland ecosystems in the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau also had low vulnerability to climate change. In the next 35 years, the NPP vulnerability to climate change would reduce the forest–steppe in the Songliao Plain, the deciduous broad-leaved forests in the warm temperate zone, and the alpine steppe in the central and western Tibetan Plateau. The NPP vulnerability would significantly increase of the temperate desert in the Junggar Basin and the alpine desert in the Kunlun Mountains. The NPP vulnerability of the subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests would also increase. The area of the regions with increased vulnerability would account for 27.5% of China.
基金Supported by the Key National Project of Science and Technology (Grant No. 2004-BA611B-02-03A)
文摘This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution (50 km×50 km) over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model "Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model (AVIM2)" was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production (NPP) of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.
基金supported by the Third Comprehensive Scientific Expedition of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region(2022xikk0802,2021xjkk0101)Future Earth Early-Career Fellowship Program 2022,State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology(2023-KF-09)Beijing Normal University Talent Introduction Project of China(12807-312232101).
文摘China's glacier water resources(GWRs)are not only indispensable suppliers of fresh water for humans living in large domestic areas but also affect the water supply to downstream neighbouring countries.Therefore,it is crucial to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal(mis-)matches between the supply and demand potentials of China's GWRs and the combined supply and demand effects in the 21st century to enable regional sustainable development.To facilitate such research,in this study,we first regionalized the importance of China's GWRs in terms of the supply potential and downstream human dependence to reveal the spatial(mis-)matches between supply and demand potentials.Then,changes in the service potential of glacier meltwater and in population dynamics,as well as their temporal(mis-)matches and associated opportunities and risks,were further assessed at the river basin scale.The results showed that GWR plays an important role in 4 of 16 macroscale glacier-fed basins(i.e.,Tarim,Junggar,Ili,and Zangxi)and 11 of 37 subbasins within the China region due to higher supply potential and demand potential in those basins.The importance of China's GWRs increases dramatically when taking the demand potential of downstream countries into account,especially in the Ganges and Indus river basins.The peaks in meltwater runoff from the most glacierized basins of the eastern Tianshan Mountains,eastern Qilian Mountains,and southeastern Tibetan Plateau of China occur slightly earlier than the projected peak population(around 2030)under the mid-range Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP245),leading to a compound risk in terms of decreasing meltwater supply and increasing human dependence at the end of the 2020s.However,the peak meltwater is expected to occur later than the peak population in the Tarim,Qiangtang Plateau,and Qaidam basins.The opportunities offered by the increase in meltwater can relieve the water resource pressure for those populations under water-stressed conditions.Greater attention should also be paid to water shortage risks in the transboundary river basins,especially in the Indus and Ganges basins,because the peak meltwater within China is generally expected to occur sooner than the projected peak population of downstream countries.This study provides an effective planning and decision-making basis for the full utilization of China's GWRs and adaptation when glacier runoff declines.