[Objective] The aim was to test the reliability and validity of questionnaire on the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin. [Method] A questionnaire on 'the adaptation strategy of cr...[Objective] The aim was to test the reliability and validity of questionnaire on the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin. [Method] A questionnaire on 'the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin' was carried out in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin, and its reliability and validity were tested by means of statistical method, so as to investigate the stability and accuracy of questionnaire. [Result] Reliability analysis of questionnaire showed that the split-half reliability coefficient of questionnaire in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin was 0.729 and 0.750, respectively, and Cronbach’s α reliability coefficient was 0.613 and 0.616, respectively, which revealed that the questionnaire had good equivalence and internal consistency which reflected good reliability and stability. According to validity analysis on questionnaire, there was significant correlation between the score of most questions and questionnaire, and it indicated that questionnaire had high content validity. There were 8 common factors collected from 26 questions, which were summarized as agricultural planting, agricultural water conservation, life satisfaction, cultivated land variation, social integration sense, climate and cryosphere changes, capital input improved by environment and family economic condition, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of various questions in corresponding indexes was higher, and reflected structure was in full accord with questionnaire content, which revealed that questionnaire owned good construct validity. [Conclusion] With higher stability and accuracy, the questionnaire could determine the desired topic and content and was suitable for the study on the perception of common people and choices of adaptive strategy under cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin in northwestern China.展开更多
This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of cl...This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase in summer precipitation since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, and Tacheng. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest, and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation which shows a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such as Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.展开更多
The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environment...The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environmental changes in different regions. One reasonable and scientific adaptation strategy is based on not only scientific assessment of the impact of environmental change on society, but also correct estimation of the public perception of environmental change, whereas the research on the latter is terribly weak. This paper intends to understand the personality difference in public perception of environment in the western China primarily by establishing the assessment index system of nation environmental perception and analyzing the results of questionnaire survey in some regions of Shaanxi Province. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The state of public perception of disaster is one of the foundations of constituting and enforcing reasonable adaptation strategy to environmental change. 2) The personality differences of public perception of disaster appear as follows: female disaster perception is stronger than male;the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of age characteristics is 20-30, 0-20, 40-50, 30-40, 50-60, 60 year old or over in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of educational characteristics is senior high school, college, illiterate, junior high school, primary school, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of occupation characteristics is student, farmer, teacher, worker and functionary, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of habitat characteristics is city, countryside, towns, and metropolis in turns.展开更多
Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper fi...Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adaptation countermeasures of China's forestry development to climate change were proposed.展开更多
Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the likeness of the effect of global climate change on Chinese forests were analyzed.With the practice in China, the adaptation strategies of Chinese forests to global climate ch...Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the likeness of the effect of global climate change on Chinese forests were analyzed.With the practice in China, the adaptation strategies of Chinese forests to global climate change were given in the following 7 aspects. They are: tree improvement strategy, the plantation strategy, the management of secondary regenerated forests and natural forests, the thinning and rotation management, the forest biodiversity conservation, forest pests control, and forest fire control.展开更多
【目的】明确气候变暖对作物生产的实际影响,降低对未来粮食安全预测的不确定性。【方法】依据东北水稻生产和气候变化的长期观测数据,并结合田间开放式增温试验(free air temperature increase,FATI),系统研究稻作系统对气候变暖的实...【目的】明确气候变暖对作物生产的实际影响,降低对未来粮食安全预测的不确定性。【方法】依据东北水稻生产和气候变化的长期观测数据,并结合田间开放式增温试验(free air temperature increase,FATI),系统研究稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应。【结果】历史数据分析发现,近几十年来东北水稻单产与其生长季的气温呈明显递增趋势,相关显著,但与降水量变化相关不显著。理论推算表明,水稻生长季最低气温升高1℃,水稻单产可提高6.0%以上。田间试验发现,在目前的气温背景下,水稻冠层气温升高1℃,单产可提高10%左右。近四十年来东北水稻新品种的生育期每10年约延长3 d,与近二十年来田间观测到的水稻实际生育期延长幅度基本一致,达5 d左右;与1970年相比,2010年黑龙江省的水稻种植面积扩大了24倍,种植重心向北位移了近110 km,与东北水稻生长季≥10℃有效积温带北移的幅度一致。【结论】气候变暖对东北水稻的直接增产效应显著,稻作系统可以通过品种改良、栽培改进和区域调整等策略来逐步适应气候变化的趋势。在应对气候变化的稻作制度调整上,应充分挖掘增温的增产效应及作物系统的适应潜力,调整时机和幅度应适当迟后于预测的气候变化进程。在气候变暖的大趋势下,要注意因水稻生育期延长和种植区域北扩而可能遭遇的低温冷害等极端性天气。展开更多
Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate.Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal.However,the...Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate.Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal.However,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model pools.Here,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median values.But they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future projections.The uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among subregions.Based on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,respectively.Reliability of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and indices.The projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃warming.The largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range of the 10th–90th percentiles)under 1.5/2℃warming,followed by northern and northwestern China.The smallest but the most robust warming is in southwestern China,with values exceeding 0.9(0.6–1.1)/1.5(1.1–1.7)℃.The most robust projection and largest increase is achieved in northwestern China for Prcptot,with increase of 9.1%(–1.6–24.7%)/17.9%(0.5–36.4%)under 1.5/2℃warming.Followed by northern China,where the increase is 6.0%(–2.6–17.8%)/11.8%(2.4–25.1%),respectively.The precipitation projection is of large uncertainty in southwestern China,even with uncertain sign of variation.For the additional half-degree warming,Tav increases more than 0.5℃throughout China.Almost all regions witness an increase of Prcptot,with the largest increase in northwestern China.展开更多
基金Supported by Major State Basic Research Development Program of China(2007CB411507)Open Foundation Project of State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(SKLCS08-04)
文摘[Objective] The aim was to test the reliability and validity of questionnaire on the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin. [Method] A questionnaire on 'the adaptation strategy of cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin' was carried out in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin, and its reliability and validity were tested by means of statistical method, so as to investigate the stability and accuracy of questionnaire. [Result] Reliability analysis of questionnaire showed that the split-half reliability coefficient of questionnaire in Urumchi River basin and Aksu River basin was 0.729 and 0.750, respectively, and Cronbach’s α reliability coefficient was 0.613 and 0.616, respectively, which revealed that the questionnaire had good equivalence and internal consistency which reflected good reliability and stability. According to validity analysis on questionnaire, there was significant correlation between the score of most questions and questionnaire, and it indicated that questionnaire had high content validity. There were 8 common factors collected from 26 questions, which were summarized as agricultural planting, agricultural water conservation, life satisfaction, cultivated land variation, social integration sense, climate and cryosphere changes, capital input improved by environment and family economic condition, respectively. Meanwhile, the contribution rate of various questions in corresponding indexes was higher, and reflected structure was in full accord with questionnaire content, which revealed that questionnaire owned good construct validity. [Conclusion] With higher stability and accuracy, the questionnaire could determine the desired topic and content and was suitable for the study on the perception of common people and choices of adaptive strategy under cryosphere changes in arid inland river basin in northwestern China.
文摘This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid region of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase in summer precipitation since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, and Tacheng. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest, and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation which shows a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such as Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.
文摘The study on humanity response to global environment change is a new direction in the research of global change science, of which an important aspect is to study the adaptation strategies of human being to environmental changes in different regions. One reasonable and scientific adaptation strategy is based on not only scientific assessment of the impact of environmental change on society, but also correct estimation of the public perception of environmental change, whereas the research on the latter is terribly weak. This paper intends to understand the personality difference in public perception of environment in the western China primarily by establishing the assessment index system of nation environmental perception and analyzing the results of questionnaire survey in some regions of Shaanxi Province. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The state of public perception of disaster is one of the foundations of constituting and enforcing reasonable adaptation strategy to environmental change. 2) The personality differences of public perception of disaster appear as follows: female disaster perception is stronger than male;the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of age characteristics is 20-30, 0-20, 40-50, 30-40, 50-60, 60 year old or over in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of educational characteristics is senior high school, college, illiterate, junior high school, primary school, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of occupation characteristics is student, farmer, teacher, worker and functionary, in turns; the order of disaster perception from strong to weak from the point of habitat characteristics is city, countryside, towns, and metropolis in turns.
基金supported by the Special Research Program for Public-welfare Forestry "Responses of forests to climate change and adaptive strategy of forestry in China" (Grant No.200804001)
文摘Forestry and forest ecosystem are highly sensitive to climate change.At present,studies about the responses of forests to climate change in China are more focused on physical influences of climate change.This paper firstly divided the key impact factors of climate change on forest and forestry developing into direct factors and indirect factors,and then made an assessment on climate change affecting future forestry development from the aspect of forest products and ecological services.On this basis,the adaptation countermeasures of China's forestry development to climate change were proposed.
文摘Based on the comprehensive evaluation, the likeness of the effect of global climate change on Chinese forests were analyzed.With the practice in China, the adaptation strategies of Chinese forests to global climate change were given in the following 7 aspects. They are: tree improvement strategy, the plantation strategy, the management of secondary regenerated forests and natural forests, the thinning and rotation management, the forest biodiversity conservation, forest pests control, and forest fire control.
文摘【目的】明确气候变暖对作物生产的实际影响,降低对未来粮食安全预测的不确定性。【方法】依据东北水稻生产和气候变化的长期观测数据,并结合田间开放式增温试验(free air temperature increase,FATI),系统研究稻作系统对气候变暖的实际响应与适应。【结果】历史数据分析发现,近几十年来东北水稻单产与其生长季的气温呈明显递增趋势,相关显著,但与降水量变化相关不显著。理论推算表明,水稻生长季最低气温升高1℃,水稻单产可提高6.0%以上。田间试验发现,在目前的气温背景下,水稻冠层气温升高1℃,单产可提高10%左右。近四十年来东北水稻新品种的生育期每10年约延长3 d,与近二十年来田间观测到的水稻实际生育期延长幅度基本一致,达5 d左右;与1970年相比,2010年黑龙江省的水稻种植面积扩大了24倍,种植重心向北位移了近110 km,与东北水稻生长季≥10℃有效积温带北移的幅度一致。【结论】气候变暖对东北水稻的直接增产效应显著,稻作系统可以通过品种改良、栽培改进和区域调整等策略来逐步适应气候变化的趋势。在应对气候变化的稻作制度调整上,应充分挖掘增温的增产效应及作物系统的适应潜力,调整时机和幅度应适当迟后于预测的气候变化进程。在气候变暖的大趋势下,要注意因水稻生育期延长和种植区域北扩而可能遭遇的低温冷害等极端性天气。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42275184)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFA0603804)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Government of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.KYCX22_1135).
文摘Climate change adaptation and relevant policy-making need reliable projections of future climate.Methods based on multi-model ensemble are generally considered as the most efficient way to achieve the goal.However,their efficiency varies and inter-comparison is a challenging task,as they use a variety of target variables,geographic regions,time periods,or model pools.Here,we construct and use a consistent framework to evaluate the performance of five ensemble-processing methods,i.e.,multimodel ensemble mean(MME),rank-based weighting(RANK),reliability ensemble averaging(REA),climate model weighting by independence and performance(ClimWIP),and Bayesian model averaging(BMA).We investigate the annual mean temperature(Tav)and total precipitation(Prcptot)changes(relative to 1995–2014)over China and its seven subregions at 1.5 and 2℃warming levels(relative to pre-industrial).All ensemble-processing methods perform better than MME,and achieve generally consistent results in terms of median values.But they show different results in terms of inter-model spread,served as a measure of uncertainty,and signal-to-noise ratio(SNR).ClimWIP is the most optimal method with its good performance in simulating current climate and in providing credible future projections.The uncertainty,measured by the range of 10th–90th percentiles,is reduced by about 30%for Tav,and 15%for Prcptot in China,with a certain variation among subregions.Based on ClimWIP,and averaged over whole China under 1.5/2℃global warming levels,Tav increases by about 1.1/1.8℃(relative to 1995–2014),while Prcptot increases by about 5.4%/11.2%,respectively.Reliability of projections is found dependent on investigated regions and indices.The projection for Tav is credible across all regions,as its SNR is generally larger than 2,while the SNR is lower than 1 for Prcptot over most regions under 1.5℃warming.The largest warming is found in northeastern China,with increase of 1.3(0.6–1.7)/2.0(1.4–2.6)℃(ensemble’s median and range of the 10th–90th percentiles)under 1.5/2℃warming,followed by northern and northwestern China.The smallest but the most robust warming is in southwestern China,with values exceeding 0.9(0.6–1.1)/1.5(1.1–1.7)℃.The most robust projection and largest increase is achieved in northwestern China for Prcptot,with increase of 9.1%(–1.6–24.7%)/17.9%(0.5–36.4%)under 1.5/2℃warming.Followed by northern China,where the increase is 6.0%(–2.6–17.8%)/11.8%(2.4–25.1%),respectively.The precipitation projection is of large uncertainty in southwestern China,even with uncertain sign of variation.For the additional half-degree warming,Tav increases more than 0.5℃throughout China.Almost all regions witness an increase of Prcptot,with the largest increase in northwestern China.
