HUMAN IMPACTS ON THE ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AND MODERN URBAN CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOESS PLATEAU

The influence of human activities on environment and climate change is the most conspicuous problem of the Loess Plateau, and it may be divided into two aspects: firstly, the excessive utilization of land by the human race causes the destruction of vegetation, and consequently large expanse of land is under desertification and the characteristics of the ground surface and the water and heat exchange on the ground surface have changed; secondly, the use of coal by industries produces a huge amount of carbon dioxide and trace elements, which enter into the atmosphere to cause air pollution.Data of 1951-1990 are collected from 69 meteorological stations on the Loess Plateau. After analysis, the decadal variations of temperature and rainfall in the last 40 years are obtained as follows: (1) In the arid zone of the north- west of the Loess Plateau, the increase in temperature is the largest. For the past 40 years, the annual mean temperature has increased 0.7-1.0 ℃ . In the semiarid zone of the middle

From Climate to Global Change:Following the Footprint of Prof.Duzheng YE's Research

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including：（1） the role of climate change in global change;（2） the critical time scales and predictability of global change;（3） the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and（4） orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

Middle-late Holocene environment change induced by climate and human based on multi-proxy records from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,eastern China

Our knowledge about the interaction between human activities and the environment in the middle-late Holocene remains incomplete.Core C1 in Lake Chaohu from the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR),eastern China,provides an opportunity to investigate vegetation and climate changes,human activities,and East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) evolution since 5100 cal.yr BP.These variables are assessed based on radiocarbon dating,pollen and charcoal records,and magnetic susceptibility (χ_(lf)),median grain size and TP.Results reveal a hiatus in sedimentation between 2080 and 730 cal.yr BP in the western part of Lake Chaohu,which is common in most lakes in the MLYR.Evergreen and deciduous broadleaved mixed forest retreated gradually after 3650 cal.yr BP,and was replaced by secondary Pinus forest after at least 730 cal.yr BP.Intense agricultural activities and vegetation clearance are first detected at 2520 cal.yr BP.Human settlements expanded from the lake front wetlands (during the period 2520–2080 cal.yr BP) to remote high-altitude areas(2080–400 cal.yr BP),and then returned to the lake front to reclaim the wetlands and lake (after 400 cal.yr BP).A gradual trend of recessional EASM strength from 4300 cal.yr BP and centennial-scale variations of EASM during the period5100–3650 cal.yr BP are revealed.The reduction of summer insolation,southward shift of the ITCZ,and El Ni?o Southern Oscillation may control the intensity of EASM and climate on a large regional scale.

气候变化及人类活动背景下石羊河流域生态与水资源变化特征

本研究基于石羊河流域气象资料、遥感资料以及人文资料,分析流域气候要素和生态环境变化特征,探讨气候变化和人类活动双重作用对流域生态环境的影响。结果表明:近60 a来石羊河流域气温显著升高,增温速率为0.40℃·(10a)^(-1),流域气温上升过程中1998年发生突变,通过0.05水平显著性检验;年降水量呈增加趋势,增幅为7.3 mm·(10a)^(-1),年际间差异较大,从空间分布来看,年降水量流域南部向北部递减;干燥度自1961年以来呈减小趋势,由流域北部向南部递减。流域上游西营河出山口九条岭站径流量呈微弱的上升趋势,增加率为0.037×10^(8)m^(3)·(10a)^(-1),主要受降水的影响;自2007年《石羊河流域重点治理规划》实施以来,石羊河流域水资源、植被面积发生较大变化,蔡旗断面过水量、石羊河年平均流量、青土湖及其周边水域和植被面积显著增加,地下水位稳定回升。气候变化和人类活动双重影响下,石羊河流域的生态环境得到有效改善,为流域生态环境保护与建设、水土资源合理利用与保护提供科学依据。

1977—2020年沂蒙山区极端气温时空变化特征分析

【目的】为深入掌握全球变暖背景下沂蒙山区极端气温事件及复合极端高温事件的动态演变特征,以期为预防区域性灾害提供理论参考。【方法】根据1977—2020年沂蒙山区的逐日气温资料,利用线性拟合、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、Morlet复小波分析等方法,对沂蒙山区极端气温事件及昼夜复合高温的时空变化特征进行了分析,并探讨了极端气温指数对全球变暖停滞现象的响应特征及发生持续性昼夜复合高温事件时的环流特征。【结果】结果表明:(1)近44年,沂蒙山区暖指数(TN90、TX90、SU25)呈上升趋势,冷指数(TN10、TX10、FD0)呈现下降趋势,具有昼夜不对称性,昼夜温差缩小,促使昼夜复合高温事件的发生。(2)极端气温指数突变时间大多出现在20世纪90年代和二十一世纪初期,突变时间上冷指数早于暖指数,突变后极端气温暖事件的发生频率增加,极端气温冷事件的发生频率减少;昼夜复合高温事件以2012为界,前期波动不明显,高发于2012—2020年;各极端气温指数及昼夜高温事件均在1998—2012年间响应了全球变暖停滞现象。(3)沂蒙山区西部地区为暖夜日数(TN90)、暖昼日数(TX90)以及昼夜复合高温事件的增速显著高值区。(4)沂蒙山区夏季昼夜复合高温事件在2012—2020年持续性较强,南压高压异常偏北偏东,中层副热带高压异常西伸是影响沂蒙山区持续昼夜复合高温的环流机制。【结论】综上,研究区将延续暖化趋势,沂蒙山西部为极端气温事件及复合极端高温事件的高发区域且在近些年增温显著,应重点关注以上地区长历时高强度增温在城市规划、人类健康和农业生产等方面产生的影响,及时制定适应气候变化的策略和措施,促进沂蒙山区生态环境和社会经济的可持续发展。

基于改进遥感生态指数的新丰江流域生态环境质量时空动态演化研究

针对新丰江流域内城市化建设进程加快导致的生态环境破坏不断加剧的问题,利用遥感技术手段对流域生态环境质量变化进行监测十分必要,从自然因素角度反映区域环境质量的遥感生态指数在自然区域生态环境研究中效果显著,但忽视了人类活动因素对生态环境的影响,不能全面反映人文因素对生态环境的干扰。本文以2010—2020年新丰江流域为研究区域,在遥感生态指数基础上融入具备人类活动属性的兴趣点(POI)数据构建改进遥感生态指数(HRSEI),用于研究区生态环境质量时空分析。研究表明:①该流域在十年间存在较大规模的开发建设,但随着“两山”理论执行力度的加大(2015—2020年),流域内生态环境质量从降低扭转至升高;②融入POI数据后的HRSEI对流域内人为建设活动密集区域的生态环境质量感知适用性更好;③流域内持续存在较大规模的建设活动,但生态环境质量的“下降-上升”演化特征体现了属地内生态管理方式的改进。研究结果可为粤东新丰江流域生态环境治理修复工作提供参考建议。

Spatial and temporal change patterns of net primary productivity and its response to climate change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau of China from 2000 to 2015

The vegetation ecosystem of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau in China,considered to be the′′natural laboratory′′of climate change in the world,has undergone profound changes under the stress of global change.Herein,we analyzed and discussed the spatial-temporal change patterns and the driving mechanisms of net primary productivity(NPP)in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 2000 to 2015 based on the gravity center and correlation coefficient models.Subsequently,we quantitatively distinguished the relative effects of climate change(such as precipitation,temperature and evapotranspiration)and human activities(such as grazing and ecological construction)on the NPP changes using scenario analysis and Miami model based on the MOD17A3 and meteorological data.The average annual NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau showed a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest during 2000–2015.With respect to the inter-annual changes,the average annual NPP exhibited a fluctuating upward trend from 2000 to 2015,with a steep increase observed in 2005 and a high fluctuation observed from 2005 to 2015.In the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,the regions with the increase in NPP(change rate higher than 10%)were mainly concentrated in the Three-River Source Region,the northern Hengduan Mountains,the middle and lower reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River,and the eastern parts of the North Tibet Plateau,whereas the regions with the decrease in NPP(change rate lower than–10%)were mainly concentrated in the upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River and the Ali Plateau.The gravity center of NPP in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau has moved southwestward during 2000–2015,indicating that the increment and growth rate of NPP in the southwestern part is greater than those of NPP in the northeastern part.Further,a significant correlation was observed between NPP and climate factors in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.The regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation were mainly located in the central and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau,and the regions exhibiting a significant correlation between NPP and temperature were mainly located in the southern and eastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.Furthermore,the relative effects of climate change and human activities on the NPP changes in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau exhibited significant spatial differences in three types of zones,i.e.,the climate change-dominant zone,the human activity-dominant zone,and the climate change and human activity interaction zone.These research results can provide theoretical and methodological supports to reveal the driving mechanisms of the regional ecosystems to the global change in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau.

Ecological environment quality evaluation of the Sahel region in Africa based on remote sensing ecological index

Long-term monitoring of the ecological environment changes is helpful for the protection of the ecological environment.Based on the ecological environment of the Sahel region in Africa,we established a remote sensing ecological index(RSEI)model for this region by combining dryness,moisture,greenness,and desertification indicators.Using the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS)data in Google Earth Engine(GEE)platform,this study analyzed the ecological environment quality of the Sahel region during the period of 2001-2020.We used liner regression and fluctuation analysis methods to study the trend and fluctuation of RSEI,and utilized the stepwise regression approach to analyze the contribution of each indicator to the RSEI.Further,the correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between RSEI and precipitation,and Hurst index was applied to evaluate the change trend of RSEI in the future.The results show that RSEI of the Sahel region exhibited spatial heterogeneity.Specifically,it exhibited a decrease in gradient from south to north of the Sahel region.Moreover,RSEI in parts of the Sahel region presented non-zonal features.Different land-cover types demonstrated different RSEI values and changing trends.We found that RSEI and precipitation were positively correlated,suggesting that precipitation is the controlling factor of RSEI.The areas where RSEI values presented an increasing trend were slightly less than the areas where RSEI values presented a decreasing trend.In the Sahel region,the areas with the ecological environment characterized by continuous deterioration and continuous improvement accounted for 44.02%and 28.29%of the total study area,respectively,and the areas in which the ecological environment was changing from improvement to deterioration and from deterioration to improvement accounted for 12.42%and 15.26%of the whole area,respectively.In the face of the current ecological environment and future change trends of RSEI in the Sahel region,the research results provide a reference for the construction of the"Green Great Wall"(GGW)ecological environment project in Africa.

Impact of global change on transmission of human infectious diseases

Global change,which refers to large-scale changes in the earth system and human society,has been changing the outbreak and transmission mode of many infectious diseases.Climate change affects infectious diseases directly and indirectly.Meteorological factors including temperature,precipitation,humidity and radiation influence infectious disease by modulating pathogen,host and transmission pathways.Meteorological disasters such as droughts and floods directly impact the outbreak and transmission of infectious diseases.Climate change indirectly impacts infectious diseases by altering the ecological system,including its underlying surface and vegetation distribution.In addition,anthropogenic activities are a driving force for climate change and an indirect forcing of infectious disease transmission.International travel and rural-urban migration are a root cause of infectious disease transmission.Rapid urbanization along with poor infrastructure and high disease risk in the rural-urban fringe has been changing the pattern of disease outbreaks and mortality.Land use changes,such as agricultural expansion and deforestation,have already changed the transmission of infectious disease.Accelerated air,road and rail transportation development may not only increase the transmission speed of outbreaks,but also enlarge the scope of transmission area.In addition,more frequent trade and other economic activities will also increase the potential risks of disease outbreaks and facilitate the spread of infectious diseases.

政策变迁理论与实践视角下村级卫生人力资源配置现状及对策研究--以北京市H区为研究现场

目的以政策变迁理论为基础,了解村级卫生人力资源配置现状与问题,从“夯实基层基础作为固本之策”角度助力乡村振兴和健康乡村建设。方法信息普查法:对H区14个农村乡镇村级卫生人力资源配置进行兜底调查;深入访谈法:以信息饱和为原则,抽取3个乡镇村卫生室和社区卫生服务站进行实地观察,对关键知情人进行个人深入访谈。结果卫生政策环境在时空变化中发生重要改变,“空心村”与“倒挂村”并存、户籍人口与常住人口变动加速、老乡村医生与新乡村医生同掌接续、村卫生室与社区卫生服务站“双轨”并进。上述政策内外环境改变使村级卫生人力资源配置出现诸问题亟待研究。讨论在政策外部环境与内部环境双重作用下,政策变迁是应然之举。村级卫生人力资源配置从政策上应进行体制并轨;职业发展机制实现上下贯通;队伍建设围绕适宜适用进行批量培养。

气候变化和人类活动对河流营养盐通量过程影响研究综述

河流运输是全球生物地球化学循环中营养物质从陆地到海洋的重要途径。河流营养盐在入海通量中的占比非常大,然而,受气候变化和人类活动的双重影响,河流的营养盐过程发生了不可忽视的变化。考虑数据监测和数值模拟两种河流营养盐数据获取方法,总结了河流营养盐通量计算的研究进展,揭示了世界大河营养盐通量变化过程趋势。此外,从气温升高和极端天气的角度分析了河流营养盐过程对气候变化的响应,从土地利用、大型水利工程和水环境修复和管理等角度探讨了人类活动对河流营养盐过程的作用。最后在现有研究成果分析和总结的基础上,对气候变化影响、人类活动影响、水质监测技术、模型模拟计算以及水环境保护和管理方面展望了未来需要加强探索的方向。

黑河干流中游地区近40年来地下水环境变化特征及其成因

长期的监测结果表明自20世纪80年代以来黑河中游张掖地区地下水环境发生显著变化。笔者应用时间序列分析、相关性分析和遥感解译等方法分析近40年来该地区地下水水位、地下水水化学、黑河出山径流量、气象要素、绿洲面积演变规律,识别地下水环境对气候变化及人类活动的响应规律。结果表明,研究区中部区域地下水水位变化与出山径流量相关性显著,与张掖地区降水量相关性差,气候变化通过影响黑河上游径流量进而对研究区中部地下水水位产生影响,研究区降水变化对地下水水位影响微弱;研究区西部、东部地下水水位变化受人类活动影响显著,东部山前区受河流弃水量持续增大影响,近年来地下水水位显著回升,西部明花乡至骆驼城一带井灌区由于地下水大量开采,地下水水位仍处于持续下降状态;研究区南部山前带河流两侧一定范围内地下水水化学特征多年保持稳定,其余地区地下水水化学特征变化显著。

Global warming, human-induced carbon emissions, and their uncertainties

In recent decades, there have been a number of debates on climate warming and its driving forces. Based on an extensive literature review, we suggest that （1） climate warming occurs with great uncertainty in the magnitude of the temperature increase; （2） both human activities and natural forces contribute to climate change, but their relative contributions are difficult to quan- tify; and （3） the dominant role of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases （including CO2） in the global warming claimed by the Intergovernrnental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） is questioned by the scientific communities because of large uncertainties in the mechanisms of natural factors and anthropogenic activities and in the sources of the increased atmospheric CO2 concentration. More efforts should be made in order to clarify these uncertainties.

生态脆弱性及其研究进展

生态脆弱性已成为当前全球变化与可持续发展研究中的热点问题。有关生态脆弱性的研究,正逐渐从重点考察某单一生态要素发展到关注区域人地系统的整体性响应。当前生态脆弱性研究的内容主要包括系统变化分析、系统自身的敏感性与外部扰动的潜在影响,人地系统的适应性等。主要的研究方法有情景分析法、生态模拟法和指标评价法。目前生态脆弱性研究中存在的问题主要是情景分析与模拟的不确定性、适应性能力与社会经济发展的关系不明晰、自然因素与社会经济因素脆弱性研究相对不足等。生态脆弱性未来研究的重点是推进脆弱性研究多学科、跨尺度的融合,加强脆弱性中自然与人文因素的厘定和耦合研究,并开展基于历史变化史实的生态脆弱性实证分析。而作为脆弱性研究归宿,适应性研究不仅需要探讨能力建设和策略优化,还应深入研究适应性能力阈值与社会经济发展的关系以及国家、区域和群体之间适应性能力的总体协调与管理。最后,需要加强人地系统对极端自然灾害事件的脆弱性的研究。

全球变化与人类活动的相互作用——我国下阶段全球变化研究工作的重点

全球环境变化与可持续发展是当今人类社会面临的两大重要挑战。IGBPⅡ在探索地球系统变化规律的同时,力图将全球变化与可持续发展更紧密地结合,为人类社会的可持续发展提供科学背景和依据。根据国际全球变化研究发展的动向与我国的具体情况,今后我国全球变化与人类活动相互作用研究的重点应放在那些兼备显著区域特色和国际影响力的重大科学问题上。其中值得着重解决的10个科学问题包括:水循环与水问题、人类活动与区域碳循环过程、季风亚洲的人类活动与气候集成、土地利用/土地覆盖变化与陆地生态系统变化、人类活动与大气气溶胶、边缘海及海陆过渡带与人类活动、全球变化的影响与适应性、过去环境变化与中华文明、建设全面小康社会与温室气体减排国际谈判的科学支持、全球变化与人类活动相互作用研究基础信息平台建设。

当代新疆洪旱灾害扩大化:人类活动的影响分析

１９８０＇ｓ以来新疆洪旱灾害损失存在扩大化的趋势，这与我国及世界其它地区洪旱灾害增多的趋势相一致。造成当代新疆洪旱灾害增多、灾损扩大的原因除了全球变暖影响外，人类活动的加剧导致新疆生态环境严重退化、绿洲无度扩张致使临灾区域扩大是新疆近期洪旱灾害增多的主要原因。此外，对未来新疆的洪旱趋势进行初步展望，认为在全球和局域人类活动继续加剧的情况下，未来新疆气候会更加不稳定，降水变率增加，洪旱极端事件会增多，若能采取适当的应对措施，洪旱灾害损失会有一定程度的下降。

气候变化和人类活动对中亚地区水文环境的影响评估

中亚地区是我国天气的上游区,生态环境异常脆弱,必须要保证该地区生态环境和资源安全,水资源安全首当其冲.研究和评估气候变化和人类活动对中亚地区水文环境的影响,具有重要的战略意义.近百年来中亚地区气候有暖湿化趋势,气温增温持续时间较长且增温幅度较大,近50 a增暖更加明显(0.47℃·(10a)^(-1)),其中冬季增温最快,预估未来会延续变暖的态势;同时20世纪80年代之后降水量持续波动上升.气候变化对该地区水资源的时空分布及湖泊变迁造成了重大影响,人类活动加剧了水资源短缺,近50 a来锡尔河和阿姆河入咸海径流量均呈减少的趋势,20世纪70年代之后拦水蓄水水库等水利工程的建设,加上灌溉用水的增加,导致两河入咸海水量骤减;而1987年之后两河入咸海水量回升,主要是气温回暖、降水增多,加速了常年积雪和冰川融化,使得进入河道的径流量增加.同时,湖泊水位下降,面积收缩,水质恶化.中亚水资源问题主要是跨国水资源分配和水环境恶化问题,要做好水资源评估和用水规划工作,建立覆盖全区域的水资源环境监测网络.中亚国家需要共同参与制定一套完整的、综合考虑人口、社会经济、生态环境等因素的水资源管理政治立法决策体系,构建中亚各国人水和谐、互利共存的水资源新秩序,以水资源可持续利用来支持经济与社会的可持续发展.

全球变化的区域响应和适应

20世纪 90年代以来 ,全球变化研究进入了一个新的时期 ,其研究方向发生了重大调整 :从认识地球系统基本规律的纯基础研究为主 ,扩展到与人类社会可持续发展密切相关的一系列生存环境实际问题的研究 ;从研究人类活动对环境变化的影响 ,扩展到研究人类如何适应全球环境的变化 ;在更高层次上进行地球系统的综合集成研究。文中对日益受到重视的全球变化区域响应和适应研究的背景进行了分析 ,并着重介绍了一些概念和研究进展 :( 1)对全球和区域环境变化的适应同可持续发展之间的关系。两者应存在协调统一的关系。同时 ,适应应是对区域和全球环境系统的整体性和系统性适应 ,不应是局部的和片面的。( 2 )“有序人类活动”的研究框架。介绍了对“有序人类活动”的一些基本认识 ,以及在虚拟试验研究、示范区建设和长期监测研究等方面的进展。( 3 )集成研究。以东亚区域环境系统和北方干旱化的集成研究为例 。

1957—2006年塔里木河流域气候变化和人类活动对水资源和生态环境的影响

塔里木河是我国最大的内陆河,历史上是环塔里木盆地九大水系144条河流的总称,目前呈"四源一干"格局.依据1957—2006年近50a气象及水文监测资料,分析了气候变化和人类活动对塔里木河流域水资源的影响.虽然近50a来塔里木河流域山区与平原整体呈现气温升高、降水量增加特征,出山口径流量也呈增加趋势,然而在2000年前塔里木河流域生态环境急剧退化.其成因主要为:1)从20世纪50年代起到近2006年,四条源流入塔里木河水量50a减少了15.4×108m3;2)塔里木河上、中、下游耗水量比例的失调及区域水资源分配发生变化,造成塔里木河下游生态环境恶化;3)实施塔里木河综合治理后,即使进入塔里木河的下游的水量增加,中游段耗水量下降,但是上游耗水迅速增加且数量巨大,还是对塔里木河水资源综合利用、改善的下游生态环境产生负面影响.