The global mean sea surface model WHU2013

The mean sea surface （MSS） model is an important reference for the study of charting datum and sea level change. A global MSS model named WHU2013, with 2′ × 2′ spatial resolution between 80° S and 84°N, is established in this paper by combining nearly 20 years of multi-satellite altimetric data that include Topex/Poseidon （T/P）, Jason-1, Jason-2, ERS-2, ENVISAT and GFO Exact Repeat Mission （ERM） data, ERS-1/168, Jason-1/C geodetic mission data and Cryosat-2 low resolution mode （LRM） data. All the ERM data are adjusted by the collinear method to achieve the mean along-track sea surface height （SSH）, and the combined dataset of T/P, Jason-1 and Jason-2 from 1993 to 2012 after collinear adjustment is used as the reference data. The sea level variations in the non-ERM data （geodetic mission data and LRM data） are mainly investigated, and a combined method is proposed to correct the sea level variations between 66°S and 66°N by along-track sea level variation time series and beyond 66°S or 66°N by seasonal sea level variations. In the crossover adjustment between multi-altimetric data, a stepwise method is used to solve the problem of inconsistency in the reference data between the high and low latitude regions. The proposed model is compared with the CNES-CLS2011 and DTU13 MSS models, and the standard derivation （STD） of the differences between the models is about S cm between 80°S and 84°N, less than 3 cm between 66°S and 66°N, and less than 4 cm in the China Sea and its adjacent sea. Furthermore, the three models exhibit a good agreement in the SSH differences and the along-track gradient of SSH following comparisons with satellite altimetry data.

On the Annual Cycle Characteristics of the Sea Surface Height in South China Sea

The annual cycle characteristics of the SSH in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed based on the Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomaly data from the TOPEX / POSEIDON-ERS altimeter data and the Parallel Ocean Climate Model (POCM) prediction. The results show that the distributions of the SSH anomalies of the SCS in January, March and May, are opposite to those in July, September and November respectively; In January (July) there is the SSH negative (positive) anomaly in the deep water basin and at the Luzon Strait, while there is positive (negative) anomaly on the most of continental shelves in the west and south of South China Sea; In March (September) the SSH anomalies are similar to those in January (July), although their magnitudes have decreased and a small positive (negative) anomaly appears in the center of the South China Sea; The amplitude of the SSH annual cycle reaches its maximum in the Northwest of the Luzon Island; The seasonal variability of the wind stress is dominant in the formation of the SSH seasonal variability.

Sea surface height variations in the Mindanao Dome region in response to the northern tropical Pacific winds

Sea surface height (SSH) variability in the Mindanao Dome (MD) region is found to be one of the strong variations in the northern Pacific. It is only weaker than that in the Kuroshio Extension area, and is comparable to that in the North Pacific Subtropical Countercurrent region. Based on a 1.5-layer reduced gravity model, we analyzed SSH variations in this region and their responses to northern tropical Pacific winds. The average SSH anomaly in the region varies mainly on a seasonal scale, with significant periods of 0.5 and 1 year, ENSO time scale2-7years, and time scale in excess of 8 years. Annual and long-term variabilities are comparably stronger. These variations are essentially a response to the northern tropical Pacific winds. On seasonal and ENSO time scales, they are mainly caused by wind anomalies east of the region, which generate westward-propagating, long Rossby waves. On time scales longer than 8 years, they are mostly induced by local Ekman pumping. Long-term SSH variations in the MD region and their responses to local winds are examined and discussed for the first time .

Is the global sea surface temperature rise accelerating?

This is an exploratory investigation to search for the presence of an acceleration in global sea surface temperature rise, which is essential to identify anthropogenic contributions to the climate change during the 20 th century. A weighted statistical model with an acceleration parameter was built progressively to reconstruct the variations in the global sea surface temperature data considering statistically significant confounders and autoregressive disturbances in the process. From the preliminary residual analysis of a weighted regression model, emerged a parsimonious model with first order autoregressive disturbances with a deterministic trend, acceleration and periodicity of 69 yr and its 138 yr subharmonic. The final model solution, selected from 29 alternative combinations of the model parameters using Mallows' s Cp metric, revealed a statistically significant deterministic trend, 0.40 ± 0.03C/c(p < 0.01), and acceleration, 0.67 ± 0.11C/c^2(p < 0.01) explaining 33% of the global sea surface temperature variations. The combined yearly trend and acceleration in global sea surface temperature as predicted by the model,exhibit a strong correlation with the yearly increase in the global CO^2 concentrations observed during the 20th century.

Sea surface height and transport stream function of the South China Sea from a variable-grid global ocean circulation model

A fine-grid model (1/6) covering the South China Sea (SCS), East China Sea and Ja-pan/East Sea, which is embedded into a coarse-grid (3) global model, was established to study the SCS circulation. In the present paper, we report the model-produced monthly and annual mean transport stream functions and sea surface heights(SSH) and their anomalies of the SCS. Com-parison to the TOPEX/Poseidon data shows that the model-produced monthly sea surface height anomalies (SSHA) are in good agreement with altimeter measurements. Based on the results, the circulation of the SCS, especially the upper layer circulation, is discussed. In the surface layer, the western Philippine Sea water intrudes into the SCS through the Luzon Strait in autumn, winter and spring, but not in summer. However, as far as the whole water column is concerned, the water in-trudes into the SCS through the Luzon Strait all the year round. This indicates that in summer the water still intrudes into the SCS in the subsurface and intermediate layers. The area near the northern continental slope of the SCS is dominated by a cyclonic circulation all the year round. The SCS Southern Anticyclonic Gyre, SE Vietnam Off-Shore Current in summertime and SCS South-ern Cyclonic Gyre in wintertime are reproduced reasonably. The difference between the monthly averaged SSH and SSHA is significant, indicating the importance of the mean SSH in the SCS circulation.

Mean sea surface heights of the South and East China Seas from ocean circulation model and geodetic leveling

The mean sea surface heights (sea surface topography) of the South China, East China, Yellow and Bohai Seas are derived from an ocean general circulation model and surface air pressure. The circulation model covers the global oceans, with fine grid (1/6°)? covering the East Asian marginal seas and coarse grid (3°) covering the rest part of the global oceans. The result shows that the China 1985 Na-tional Altitude Datum is 24.7 cm above the mean sea surface height of the world oceans. The mean sea surface in the coastal ocean adjacent to China is higher in the south than in the north. Intercomparison of the model results with the geodetic leveling measurements at 28 coastal tidal stations shows a standard deviation of 4.8 cm and a fitting coefficient of 95.3%. After correction through linear regression, the standard deviation is reduced to 4.5 cm. This indicates that the accuracy of model results is sufficient for practical application. Based on the model results, the mean sea surface heights for the

A combined denoising method of empirical mode decomposition and singular spectrum analysis applied to Jason altimeter waveforms: A case of the Caspian Sea

During the satellite pulse propagation and reception, the altimeter waveform is inevitably affected by noise. To reduce the noise level in Jason altimeter waveforms, we used singular spectrum analysis(SSA),empirical mode decomposition(EMD), and the combination of SSA and EMD to obtain the denoised waveforms. The advantages of the combined method were verified and the accuracy of the mean sea surface height(MSSH) model was improved. Comparing the denoising effect of the three methods, the results show that the signal-to-noise ratio(SNR), correlation coefficient and root-mean-square error are effectively improved by the combination of SSA and EMD. The sea surface heights(SSHs) were remeasured with a 50% threshold retracker of denoised waveforms, and the MSSH model of the Caspian Sea with a grid of 1’× 1’was established from the retracked SSHs of Jason-1/2/3. Taking the mean value of the four models as a control, it is found that the model calculated by the combined denoising method has the highest accuracy. This indicates that using the combined denoising method to reduce the noise level is beneficial to improve the accuracy of the MSSH model.

Tidal Heights in Hyper-Synchronous Estuaries

Inconsistencies between datasets are examined with reference to flood tidal elevations in the Tamar River estuary, Tasmania Australia. Errors in a 30-year-old commonly cited dataset have been perpetuated in subsequent publications and datasets, and a clarification is herein provided. Elevation of the flood tidal wave as it propagates the estuary is evident in mean tide level and mean sea level, although the analysis is compromised by the temporal differences of the datasets. As sea levels rise due to global warming, the importance of accurate on-going sea level data in any estuary will become more acute.

基于多源测高数据建立平均海面高模型

利用多源卫星测高数据构建9°~19°N、110°~116°E范围内分辨率为1′×1′的平均海面高模型,对ERM数据的共线平均、GM数据的时变改正、单星及多星间交叉点平差、格网化等方法进行阐述。实验结果表明,平均海面高模型与CLS15差值的平均值(mean)、均方根(RMS)、标准差(STD)分别为0.59 cm、 2.85 cm、2.79 cm,与DTU18差值的mean、RMS、STD分别为2.06 cm、4.17 cm、3.62 cm。利用独立于模型的测高数据(Sentinel-3B、HY-2B)验证模型的精度,建立MSS时使用HY-2A、Jason-3和Sentinel-3A卫星数据,再通过与T/P(TOPEX/Poseidon)数据的对比,分析新数据对MSS的提升作用。

一种改进的VMD-XGBoost验潮站月海面高序列预测模型

海平面不断上升威胁人类的生命安全,高精度的海平面预测对人类预防水文灾害具有重要意义。现有的预测方法因验潮站数据为单一时间序列而难以进行高精度预测。针对此问题,提出一种融合变分模态分解(VMD)和极度梯度提升算法(XGBoost)的变分模态分解-极度梯度提升预测模型,简称VMD-XGBoost模型。与XGBoost模型、卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(CNN-LSTM)、变分模态-卷积神经网络与长短期记忆神经网络混合模型(VMD-CNN-LSTM)对比,对荷兰沿岸海平面验潮站时间序列进行预测。验潮站预测结果分析表明:相较于XGBoost模型,VMD-XGBoost模型预测结果的均方根误差平均降低65.43%,平均绝对误差平均降低63.79%,平均绝对百分比误差平均降低63.44%,且相较于VMD-CNN-LSTM模型,VMD-XGBoost模型在验潮站海面高序列预测上具有更高预测精度,可实现高精度验潮站时间序列预测。

Potential Impact of Tonga Volcano Eruption on Global Mean Surface Air Temperature

The undersea volcano,located in the South Pacific island nation of Tonga,violently erupted from 14 to 15 January 2022.The Tonga volcano eruption has aroused extensive discussion in the climate change field.Some climatologists believe that this event will cause little effect on global climate change while others insist that it will trigger“the year without a summer”as the Tambora eruption did in 1815.How will the Tonga volcano eruption affect global climate change?Based on the indices of past volcanic eruptions and the eruption data of El Chichón volcano in 1982,we use a simplified radiation equilibrium model to quantify the stratospheric aerosol radiative forcing and the change in global mean surface air temperature(Ts)caused by the Tonga volcano eruption.The results show that the global average Ts will decrease by about 0.0315-0.1118℃in the next 1-2 years.The Tonga eruption will slightly slow down the global warming in a short period of time,but it will not change the global warming trend in the long term.In addition,we propose a generalized approach for estimating the impact of future volcanic eruption on global mean T_(s).

STUDY OF NON-BOUSSINESQ EFFCET ON SEA SURFACE HEIGHT

A set of equations was derived for a non-Boussinesq ocean model in thispaper. A new time-splitting scheme was introduced which incorporates the 4th-order Runge-Kuttaexplicit scheme of low-frequency mode and an implicit scheme of high-frequency mode. With thismodel, potential temperature, salinity fields and sea surface height were calculated simultaneouslysuch that the numerical error of extrapolation of density field from the current time level to thenext one could be reduced while using the equation of mass conservation to determine sea surfaceheight. The non-Bouss-inesq effect on the density field and sea surface height was estimated bynumerical experiments in the final part of this paper.

基于多源卫星测高数据的新一代全球平均海面高模型

基于多源卫星测高数据,包括Geosat/GM、Geosat/ERM、ERS-1/168、ERS-2、Envisat-1、T/P和Jason-1数据,采用统一精密的模型或方法对各项地球物理改正和传播介质误差进行改进或重新计算,然后以T/P和Jason-1两种数据的共线平差作为参考基准,通过发展的全组合交叉点整体平差方法大幅度削弱了径向轨道误差和时变海面高影响。经比较后优选最小二乘配置格网化方法,以EGM2008高阶重力场模型由移去-恢复方法得到全球纬度-80°～82°范围内海域2′×2′平均海平面高模型WHU2009。与国际上较常用的CLS01平均海平面高模型及实测2年平均Jason-1比较表明WHU2009模型整体精度优于CLS01模型。

IGGGRACE01S模型确定的海面地形和地转流

用IGGGRACE01S、EIGENGRACE02S和EGM96地球重力场模型的前80阶分别计算出全球大地水准面,再与多颗测高卫星资料得到的平均海面高模型KMS04差分,构制出3种海面地形,并计算出相应的地转流。与Williams绘制的全球主要海流结果相比,不难看出,重力场模型IGGGRACE01S、EIGENGRACE02S的结果能清晰地显示出大尺度海洋地转流,而EGM96模型结果在赤道地带不明显。上述结果不仅显示了GRACE地球重力场模型IGGGRACE01S和EIGENGRACE02S具有较高精度探测地转流的能力,而且也表明了它们的长波精度优于EGM96模型,从应用角度展示了GRACE结果的有效性。

热带太平洋和印度洋海面高度季节循环和年际变化的数值模拟

利用卫星海面高度计资料 ,分析了赤道太平洋和印度洋海面高度变化的季节和年际变化特征 ,并与一个耦合气候系统模式FGCM0模拟的海面高度进行比较 ,评估模式模拟海面高度季节和年际变化的能力。结果表明 ,尽管耦合模式存在一定的系统误差 ,但仍然能在相当程度上模拟出海面高度季节和年际变化的基本特征。同时为检验模式中印度尼西亚贯穿流 (ITF)对海面高度季节和年际变化的影响 ,还进行了印度尼西亚海道完全关闭的敏感性试验 ,与控制试验结果对比表明 。

混合坐标模式HYCOM模拟COADS强迫下的南海平均环流

采用混合坐标模式(HYCOM)模拟南海环流,同时利用海表温度卫星资料和吕宋海峡Sb-ADCP观测海流数据来评估模式结果。地形敏感性实验表明,吕宋海峡地形数据对模拟黑潮入侵方式影响较大,在地形误差较大的情况下,模拟的黑潮可能以反气旋流套方式入侵。和Pathfinder海表温度卫星资料比较,模式输出的月平均温度在海盆区域误差较小。ERA-15资料强迫所模拟的吕宋海峡上层环流和Sb-ADCP观测一致,而COADS结果低估了吕宋海峡的体积输送。

海洋暖涡对“威马逊”(2014)影响的观测和模拟研究

本文利用多元卫星遥感资料和上海台风所的最佳路径资料,分析了南海暖涡对超强台风"威马逊"的影响,观测表明:"威马逊"在快速加强期间,先后从两个暖涡(WOE1和WOE2)的边缘穿过,中心最低气压在30 h内下降了60 hPa,对应暖涡的区域,海平面温度(SST)高于30℃,海表高度异常(SSHA)大于30 cm,热带气旋潜热(TCHP)大于100 kJ/cm^2,并具有70 m以上的深厚暖层。进一步采用中尺度大气模式WRF与区域海洋模式POM构造的中尺度海气耦合模式,模拟研究了海洋暖涡对"威马逊"的影响。与观测结果对比,尽管模拟台风最大强度与观测比较仍有一定差距,但模拟结果能较合理地模拟出台风中心气压和最大风速的变化特征。对比敏感性试验结果表明,虽然暖涡的存在并不是台风快速加强的充分条件,但暖涡使得海洋向大气输送的表面热通量增加,特别是对应近岸的WOE1海域,具有更高的SSHA和热带气旋潜热,台风中心区域的平均潜热通量也增加了40%以上,是使台风快速加强能达到更大强度的重要影响因子。

由ERS-1波形重构确定我国近海平均海平面

近海岸区域平均海面高在大地测量学、物理海洋学以及地球物理学研究中具有非常重要的意义.受各种条件的制约和限制,目前卫星测高技术主要应用于深海区域,在近海区域尤其是海岸线附近区域的应用几乎为空白.本文根据ERS-1测高卫星回波波形特征,采用五参数线性模型,由最小二乘拟合方法,对近海区域尤其是靠近海岸线附近的ERS-1测高波形数据进行波形重构.比较波形重构前、后解算平均海面高,表明波形重构技术不仅明显改善了解算近海海面高的精度,而且增加了近海测高海平面的分辨率,并使卫星测高有效观测延伸至海岸线附近.随后,本文利用波形重构后海面高数据构造了近海多年平均海平面,并对我国近海海平面特征进行了初步分析.

潮汐模型对利用卫星测高数据研究海平面变化的影响

利用T/P测高数据反演了中国近海及西北太平洋海域的潮汐参数,构造了CSR3.0、FES95.2和T/P反演的海潮模型改正下的海面高时间序列,通过海面高变化曲线及功率谱的比较确定了利用测高数据发现的海平面季节内变化主要是潮汐模型误差的贡献。

联合全球重力场模型和海面高模型确定平均海面位常数

利用不同重力场模型(EGM2008和EGM96)和不同海面高模型(CLS01、DNSC08、WHU2009和CNES_CLS10),分别确定无潮汐和平均潮汐系统下的全球平均海面位常数,通过海面地形改正后,平均位常数分别为62 636 858.333 3 m2s-2和62 636 858.260 6 m2s-2,计算结果与EGM2008使用的水准椭球正常位相差小于1.40m2s-2,反算求解海面地形平均值表明结果正确可靠。