Economic Implications of Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change： An Analysis Using the AIM/CGE [Global] Model

The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.

RCEP对全球及中国区域电子产业发展的影响分析——基于全球与中国区域(含深圳)的CGE模型系统

以电子产业作为研究重点,采用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型分析方法,运用全球-区域CGE模型链接的方法,将包含价值链分析框架的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型——GTAP-GVC模型与中国多区域可计算一般均衡模型——TERM模型相链接,从国家和区域两个层面,综合测算RCEP对中国、RCEP其他成员国家以及我国深圳地区和国内其他地区的经济影响,尤其侧重中国电子产业的发展以及在国内区域间的溢出效应,并据此提出政策建议。研究显示,RCEP的建成将显著提高成员国的经济水平和社会福利,也将促使中国各个地区经济和贸易的增长;在电子产业上,RCEP成员国之间价值链活动尤其是复杂价值链活动更为活跃,国内各区域在电子产业的产业链内部的流通与合作也显著增长。

新时代背景下建立中日韩自贸区的经济影响研究——基于CGE模型的分析

在全球价值链相关理论视角下,结合当前国际贸易形势,运用标准GTAP模型分析了关税调整和贸易便利化提升对中日韩各国的经济影响。通过研究发现,在三种预设情景下,韩国产出得到增加,中国影响较小,而日本则受到负面影响较大。在单一关税减让政策下,中国GDP、福利分别减少0.0105%、7.567亿美元,但加入贸易便利化提升政策后,中国宏观经济明显改善。推动中国持续对外开放,以互尊互信、平等互商、共建共享、逐步推进的原则,提升贸易便利化,适度削减关税,系统化制定适合各国实际的定制化贸易政策,将有助于中日韩自贸区早日达成,实现共赢,提升人民福祉。

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

全球能源经济可计算一般均衡模型研究综述

全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形成了一批发展成熟且应用广泛的模型平台。我国能源经济CGE模型研究开始于20世纪90年代,研究领域主要聚焦在中国本土与国内区域,而在全球尺度上的模型研究尚处于起步阶段。伴随我国在全球气候治理当中的重要性凸显,中国能源环境问题的研究需要具有国际视野。本文对当前全球能源经济CGE模型的研究现状进行分析,对全球CGE模型的主要作用与特点做出评价,并对典型模型进行比较,在介绍了模型优缺点的基础上对全球能源经济CGE模型的发展趋势与关键问题进行讨论,并对中国未来发展全球模型给出具体建议。全球能源经济CGE模型政策评估的主要优点是评估基于坚实的理论基础,可以根据相关理论判断模型结果是否合理并对政策的作用机制与影响结果做出基于经济规律的解释;以及能源与经济系统整体协调一致的相互作用机制。能源经济CGE模型主要争议性问题包括结果依赖大量参数且参数取值不稳健,以及模型假设过于理想且技术表达抽象。当前能源经济CGE模型研究的关键问题与主要趋向包括:关键参数的实证研究与准确校核、经济系统异质化与细节化描述、技术细节表述与内生化变革以及非理想与不均衡市场条件建模。建议中国开发全球模型应充分借鉴全球先进模型开发的基础与经验,在当前全球模型主流框架下重点研究发展中国家在非理想与不均衡市场环境下经济行为表述的改进,同时注重模型基础数据的整理与重要参数的校核。

多区域减排成本及经济影响比较分析

应用完全自主开发的全球多区域CGE模型(GAGE模型),对中国、印度、美国和欧盟四个区域的减排成本及经济影响进行了系统研究,从边际减排成本、GDP损失率、边际社会减排成本以及减排对部门总产出和出口的影响多个方面进行了比较分析。研究结果表明:欧盟的边际减排成本和GDP损失率显著高于其他三个区域,美国的边际减排成本约为中国的6倍,但其GDP损失率却与中国相当,其边际社会减排成本也只是略高于中国。生产部门中总产出影响最大的是能源部门,其次是高耗能的化工和钢铁部门,美国和欧盟的交通部门也受到较大冲击。

Water consumption and biodiversity:Responses to global emergency events

Given that it was a once-in-a-century emergency event,the confinement measures related to the coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic caused diverse disruptions and changes in life and work patterns.These changes significantly affected water consumption both during and after the pandemic,with direct and indirect consequences on biodiversity.However,there has been a lack of holistic evaluation of these responses.Here,we propose a novel framework to study the impacts of this unique global emergency event by embedding an environmentally extended supply-constrained global multi-regional input-output model(MRIO)into the drivers-pressure-state-impact-response(DPSIR)framework.This framework allowed us to develop scenarios related to COVID-19 confinement measures to quantify country-sector-specific changes in freshwater consumption and the associated changes in biodiversity for the period of 2020-2025.The results suggest progressively diminishing impacts due to the implementation of COVID-19 vaccines and the socio-economic system’s self-adjustment to the new normal.In 2020,the confinement measures were estimated to decrease global water consumption by about 5.7% on average across all scenarios when compared with the baseline level with no confinement measures.Further,such a decrease is estimated to lead to a reduction of around 5% in the related pressure on biodiversity.Given the interdependencies and interactions across global supply chains,even those countries and sectors that were not directly affected by the COVID-19 shocks experienced significant impacts:Our results indicate that the supply chain propagations contributed to 79% of the total estimated decrease in water consumption and 84%of the reduction in biodiversity loss on average.Our study demonstrates that the MRIO-enhanced DSPIR framework can help quantify resource pressures and the resultant environmental impacts across supply chains when facing a global emergency event.Further,we recommend the development of more locally based water conservation measures—to mitigate the effects of trade disruptions—and the explicit inclusion of water resources in post-pandemic recovery schemes.In addition,innovations that help conserve natural resources are essential for maintaining environmental gains in the post-pandemic world.

全球多区域CGE模型的构建及其3E扩展

全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(computable general equilibrium,CGE)是最重要的全球气候政策评估工具之一。该文给出了自主开发的全球多区域可计算一般均衡模型(global applied general equilibrium model,GAGE)的理论框架,描述了区域内框架的地区账户收入分配方案和生产模块的嵌套结构以及区域间框架的国际贸易结构和2个虚拟国际机构的构建,即建立国际运输部门和国际银行用于描述国际贸易的运输服务供需以及投资的区域间流动。在标准GAGE模型的基础上进行了能源-环境-经济扩展,以描述能源与资本之间以及各类能源之间的替代关系。碳减排情景研究结果验证了GAGE模型理论框架的合理性,展示了能源替代对于减排潜力的显著影响。

A global analysis of CO_(2)and non-CO_(2)GHG emissions embodied in trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries

Introduction:The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)is an important cooperative framework that increasingly affects the global economy,trade,and emission patterns.However,most existing studies pay insufficient attention to consumption-based emissions,embodied emissions,and non-CO_(2) greenhouse gases(GHGs).This study constructs a GHG emissions database to study the trends and variations in production-based,consumption-based,and embodied emissions associated with BRI countries.Outcome:We find that the per capita GHG emissions of BRI countries are lower than the global average but show significant variation within this group.We also find that trade-embodied emissions between BRI countries and China are growing.As a group,BRI countries are anet exporter of GHGs,with a global share of net export emissions of about 20%.In 2011,nearly 80%of GHG export emissions from BRI countries flowed to non-BRI countries,and nearly 15%flowed to China;about 57%of GHG import emissions were from non-BRI countries,and about 38%were from China.Conclusion:Therefore,this study concludes that the BRI should be used to coordinate climate governance to accelerate and strengthen the dissemination and deployment of low-emissions technologies,strategies,and policies within the BRI so as to avoid a carbon-intensive lock-in effect.

Multi-dimensional assessment of socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development—A case in the Upper Chuan River

The positive role of hydropower in climate change adaption is well accepted by the international community and has been highlighted many times,while the understanding of its impacts on socioeconomic development remains at the stage of rough estimation and qualitative description.The application of a multi-regional CGE model in this paper provides an effective tool for quantitatively assessing the socioeconomic impacts of hydropower development,reflecting its positive functions.This case study on the Upper Chuan River details the steps of model development,including impact mechanism analysis,regional delimitation,macro closure setting,shock selection,and database preparation.The results show the enormous economic benefits of hydropower development using various indicators such as consumption,investment,GDP,employment,and income.The study indicates that hydropower development is a win-win energy development mode which can help to realize the integration of sustainable development and climate change mitigation.Finally,potential improvements to the model are discussed.