A Study of Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Salt Water Intrusion Into the Changjiang Estuary

Using the methods of empirical correlation and numerical analogue computation of the longitudinal distribution of two-dimensional chlorinity and combined with the actual situation of water supply in the Changjiang Estuary, a calculation and analysis have been made in this paper of the impacts of sea level rise of 0.5—1.0 m in the Changjiang Estuary in the next century on the probabilities of hourly chlorinity of more than 100×10-6, 200×10-6 and 250×10-6 during the dry season st Wusong station and on the intrusion distance of the isohalines of 1×10-3 and 5×10-3 during the ebb tide stand of the dry season in the South Branch as well as on the longitudinal distribution of the chlorinity of the South Branch in the most unfavorable situation with the minimum monthly mean discharge during the special dry year.

Water Intrusion in the Chesapeake Bay Region: Is It Caused by Climate-Induced Sea Level Rise?

Sea level rise due to climate change is a contentious issue with profound geographic and economic implications. One region in the USA identified as being particularly susceptible to seal level rise is the Chesapeake Bay region, and it has been estimated that by the end of the century Norfolk, Virginia could experience sea level rise of 0.75 meters to more than 2.1 meters. Water intrusion is a serious problem in much of the Chesapeake Bay region. The question addressed here is whether this water intrusion is the result of climate-induced seal level rise or is being caused by other factors. Our findings indicate that the water intrusion problems in the region are due not to “sea level rise”, but primarily to land subsidence due to groundwater depletion and, to a lesser extent, subsidence from glacial isostatic adjustment. We conclude that water intrusion will thus continue even if sea levels decline. These findings are critical because the water intrusion problems in the Chesapeake Bay—and elsewhere—cannot be successfully solved unless their causes are correctly identified and appropriate remedies are devised. For the Chesapeake Bay region, the required remedy is the reversal of groundwater withdrawal rates, which has been used successfully elsewhere in the USA and other nations to solve water intrusion problems.

China’s Recent Progresses in Polar Climate Change and Its Interactions with the Global Climate System

During the recent four decades since 1980,a series of modern climate satellites were launched,allowing for the measurement and record-keeping of multiple climate parameters,especially over the polar regions where traditional observations are difficult to obtain.China has been actively engaging in polar expeditions.Many observations were conducted during this period,accompanied by improved Earth climate models,leading to a series of insightful understandings concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate changes.Here,we review the recent progress China has made concerning Arctic and Antarctic climate change research over the past decade.The Arctic temperature increase is much higher than the global-mean warming rate,associated with a rapid decline in sea ice,a phenomenon called the Arctic Amplification.The Antarctic climate changes showed a zonally asymmetric pattern over the past four decades,with most of the fastest changes occurring over West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula.The Arctic and Antarctic climate changes were driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and ozone loss,while tropical-polar teleconnections play important roles in driving the regional climate changes and extreme events over the polar regions.Polar climate changes may also feedback to the entire Earth climate system.The adjustment of the circulation in both the troposphere and the stratosphere contributed to the interactions between the polar climate changes and lower latitudes.Climate change has also driven rapid Arctic and Southern ocean acidification.Chinese researchers have made a series of advances in understanding these processes,as reviewed in this paper.

大国对小岛屿国家气候援助的实践及影响:以“澳图条约”为视角

气候变化已经成为小岛屿国家最关切的议题之一,但多数小岛屿国家受限于其发展程度,只能依赖他国援助和支持以应对气候变化产生的影响。近年以来,这种需求正在变得愈发迫切。在2023年11月签订的“澳—图睦邻联盟条约(Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty)”(以下简称“澳图条约”)中,图瓦卢以包括允许澳大利亚介入其外交和安全事务在内的高昂代价,换取澳大利亚的气候援助承诺。气候变化对小岛屿国家国际法人格和海洋权利的潜在影响,是理解双方合意缔结该条约真实动因的重要切入点。更为值得关注的是,“澳图条约”反映着部分大国以气候援助为支点,愈发深入地介入小岛屿国家内外事务的实践趋向。倘若类似“气候合作”由个例演变成固定的范式,大国将不断扩张在小岛屿国家的势力范围,其他小岛屿国家也将不得不为自身的生存而寻找大国的庇护,小岛屿国家为对抗大国控制而建立的区域组织也将被瓦解,进而彻底改变目前太平洋地区的地缘政治格局。大国与小岛屿国家应对气候变化的博弈,将对我国与小岛屿国家的深度合作产生潜在影响。有鉴于此,中国应从尊重国家主权和独立自主的基本立场出发,坚决抵制以气候合作为名干涉小岛屿国家内外事务的做法,并积极为小岛屿国家提供针对性的气候变化应对方案,推动前瞻性的“气候外交”布局。

The global mean sea level rise,still accelerated

Subject Code:D06A collaborative study partly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China indicates that the global mean sea level is still accelerated rising,with much of the increase from the accelerated Greenland ice sheet melting during 1993—2014.The work is coauthored by Prof.Chen Xianyao(陈显尧)

Impact of Global Warming on Indian Ocean

The sea level has increased abruptly in the Indian Ocean in the last four decades.Data shows that the increase in sea level is not homogeneous.The rise in bay of Bengal is more than that of the Arabian Sea. Global warming has caused an increase in sea surface temperature.The sea surface temperature has a direct impact on the sea level rise as well as on the intensity and frequency of storms and cyclones.This

Modeling the Risks of Climate Change and Global Warming to Humans Settled in Low Elevation Coastal Zones in Louisiana, USA

This paper seeks to identify high risk areas that are prone to flooding, caused by sea level rise because of high impacts of global climate change resulting from global warming and human settlements in low-lying coastal elevation areas in Louisiana, and model and understand the ramifications of predicted sea-level rise. To accomplish these objectives, the study made use of accessible public datasets to assess the potential risk faced by residents of coastal lowlands of Southern Louisiana in the United States. Elevation data was obtained from the Louisiana Statewide Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with resolution of 16.4 feet (5 m) distributed by Atlas. The data was downloaded from Atlas website and imported into Environmental Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI’s) ArcMap software to create a single mosaic elevation image map of the study area. After mosaicking the elevation data in ArcMap, Spatial Analyst extension software was used to classify areas with low and high elevation. Also, data was derived from United States Geological Survey (USGS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and absolute sea level rise data covering the period 1880 to 2015 was acquired from United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) website. In addition, population data from U.S. Census Bureau was obtained and coupled with elevation data for assessing the risks of the population residing in low lying areas. Models of population trend and cumulative sea level rise were developed using statistical methods and software were applied to reveal the national trends and local deviations from the trends. The trends of population changes with respect to sea level rise and time in years were modeled for the low land coastal parishes of Louisiana. The expected years for the populations in the study area to be at risk due to rising sea level were estimated by models. The geographic information systems (GIS) results indicate that areas of low elevation were mostly located along the coastal Parishes in the study area. Further results of the study revealed that, if the sea level continued to rise at the present rate, a population of approximately 1.8 million people in Louisiana’s coastal lands would be at risk of suffering from flooding associated with the sea level having risen to about 740 inches by 2040. The population in high risk flood zone was modeled by the following equation: y = 6.6667x - 12,864, with R squared equal to 0.9964. The rate of sea level rise was found to increase as years progressed. The slopes of models for data for time periods, 1880-2015 (entire data) and 1970-2015 were found to be, 4.2653 and 6.6667, respectively. The increase reflects impacts of climate change and land management on rate of sea level rise, respectively. A model for the variation of years with respect to cumulative sea level was developed for use in predicting the year when the cumulative sea level would equal the elevation above sea level of study area parishes. The model is given by the following equation: y = 0.1219x + 1944.1 with R square equal to 0.9995.

Persistently explore new understandings of Greenland Ice Sheet ablation

Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are the largest potential contributors to global sea level rise(GSLR),amounting to more than 64 m of sea level equivalence(SLE).Between the two,Greenland Ice Sheet(GrIS)alone comprises about 7 mSLE,with a much faster speed of ablation than the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

海平面上升背景下环渤海海岸敏感性研究

在全球气候变化、海平面上升背景下,全球许多海岸已经成为承受巨大压力的生态系统。应用海岸敏感性指数(Coastal Sensitivity Index,CSI)对中国环渤海海岸进行敏感性分析,采用岩性、海岸坡度、地貌、岸线变化速率、相对海平面上升水平、平均波高以及平均潮差多种变量的不同组合计算环渤海海岸479个单元格的敏感性数值。结果表明,增加变量数目或以岩性代替岸线变化能有效提高敏感性指数的区分能力,但不同组合下环渤海海岸敏感性宏观空间格局无较大差异。总体上,胶辽隆起带与大兴安岭-太行隆起带的山地丘陵基岩海岸敏感性相对较低,而以辽东湾辽河口附近沿岸平原海岸和渤海湾-黄河三角洲-莱州湾南岸平原海岸为代表的渤海、华北沉降带表现的敏感性相对较高。研究结果有助于海岸管理与规划人员在全球变化背景下识别海岸敏感区域,从而有选择性地采取应对措施缓解海岸带压力,并且为开展河口海岸生态系统脆弱性研究奠定科学基础。从长远来看,海岸敏感性分析如果与社会因子相结合更能有效提升海岸带系统整体的脆弱性研究水平。

全球环境变化海岸易损性研究综述

全球变化海岸易损性评估是国际政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC)敦促沿海各国应优先开展的一项工作。根据近年来有关海岸易损性的研究成果 ,可以认为海岸易损性系指海岸带自然、社会经济综合体对全球环境变化和海平面上升的不适应程度。通过阐述IPCC易损性评估的基本方法、内容和目标 ,指出了海岸易损性评估中存在的问题及改善的方法 ,最后 ,结合我国海岸带易损性评估的已有成果 ,分析了我国海岸易损性评估工作中存在的问题及今后的研究方向。

气候变化中海洋和冰冻圈的变化、影响及风险

本文系统梳理了IPCC《气候变化中的海洋和冰冻圈特别报告》(SROCC)的主要结论,并对主要观点进行了解读。报告主要关注全球变暖背景下高山、极地、海洋和沿海地区现在和未来的变化及其对人类和生态系统的影响,以及实现气候适应发展路径的方案。在全球变暖背景下,冰冻圈大面积萎缩,冰川冰盖质量损失,积雪减少,北极海冰范围和厚度减小,多年冻土升温,全球海洋持续增温,1993年以来,海洋变暖和吸热速度增加了一倍以上。同时,海洋表面酸化加剧,海洋含氧量减少。全球平均海平面呈加速上升趋势,2006—2015年全球海平面上升速率为3.6 mm/yr,是1901—1990年的2.5倍,但存在区域差异。高山、极地和海洋的生态系统的物种组成、分布和服务功能均发生变化,并对人类社会产生了显著负面影响。极端海洋气候事件发生频率增多,强度加大。1982年以来,全球范围内海洋热浪的发生频率增加了一倍,且范围更广,持续时间更长。海平面持续上升加剧了洪涝、海水入侵、海岸侵蚀等海岸带灾害,并影响沿海生态系统。海洋及冰冻圈的变化及其影响在未来一定时期仍将持续,应对这些影响而面临的挑战,应加强基于生态系统的适应和可再生能源管理,强化海岸带地区的海平面上升综合应对,打造积极有效、可持续和具有韧性的气候变化应对方案。

海平面上升的灾害效应及其研究现状

海平面上升是全球变暖和沿海地区人类活动加剧的必然结果,海平面上升加剧了沿海灾害,威胁着沿海地区社会经济的持续发展。文章分析了海平面上升引起的风暴潮加剧、海岸侵蚀、潮滩湿地减少、涵闸废弃、洪涝灾害加剧、海堤破坏、海水入侵等灾害效应及研究现状,提出当前海平面上升灾害效应研究中存在的问题及今后的研究重点。

全球变化与海岸研究

全球变化是当今人类社会面临的重大问题,本文简要地回顾了全球变化研究的过程,着重讨论了全球变化的一个重要后果——海面上升对海岸地区的深刻影响,特别是对三角洲和平原低地地区带来的一系列社会、经济和环境问题.指出海岸带地区是全球变化研究的极佳场所,只有结合我国海岸类型多样、现代过程多变、人类开发较早、历史文献丰富等特色加强我国的海岸研究、才能取得理论和实际的双重收获.

全球海平面变化与中国珊瑚礁

以政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)2001年专门报告中关于21世纪全球气候变化对温度和海平面变化的预估为前提，简要介绍了中国珊瑚礁的定位、类型和分布，对其进行了成熟度分类，评估了全球海平面变化对中国珊瑚礁的影响。据预测，21世纪我国各海域海平面上升以南海最大，为32～98 cm，其平均上升速率为0.32～0.98 cm／a。从海平面上升速率与珊瑚礁生长速率的理论对比分析，中国珊瑚礁基本上能与前者同步生长，即使海平面以预估高值上升，也不会威胁其生存。从中国珊瑚礁成熟度较高、其生长趋势以侧向生长为主的实际状况出发，未来全球海平面上升能为其创造向上生长的有利条件。从古地理学“将古论今”的观点出发，自全新世6000 a BP以来曾存在过的高海平面和较高表层海水温度的历史，也可以佐证，21世纪的全球海平面上升不会对中国珊瑚礁的存在和发育造成威胁。现存的珊瑚礁岛应对于全球海平面上升，可以做到“水涨岛高”，它们能够屹立于上升了的未来海平面之上；但岛上的人工建筑物则会被浸、被淹，或被淘蚀和破坏，因此必须根据海平面上升的幅度和速率，采取相应的防御措施。

近50年全球气候变暖对珠江口海平面变化趋势的影响

根据1957～2006年全球温度和珠江口验潮站平均潮位资料,分析全球气候变暖与珠江口平均海平面上升的关系,并对2030年珠江口海平面上升幅度作出预测。结果表明,近50年来珠江口海平面的上升趋势与全球气候变暖存在显著的正相关关系,预测2030年(前后)珠江口平均海平面比1980～1999年高13～17cm。

1993—2001年全球海面高度变化特征

应用TOPEX/POSEIDON(T/P)卫星高度计测高资料 ,对全球海洋的海面变化特征进行了分析 ,结果表明 ,1 993年 1月— 2 0 0 1年 6月期间 ,全球海平面呈现上升的态势 ;全球平均海平面高度的平均上升速率约为 1 .2mm/a ;海温的变化是引起海平面变化的重要原因 ,但其对海平面抬升的贡献不到 5 0 %。海平面的变化具有很强的地域特征。海平面变化的空间分布特征受风应力异常特别是纬向风应力异常的空间分布影响较大。

基于QTM的海平面上升分析与模拟

针对海平面上升影响范围分析与模拟这一国际前沿问题,通过研究基于球面四元三角网(QTM)的关键技术问题,包括复杂拓扑关系计算、LOD剖分、球面水淹分析、基于QTM的多分辨率的DEM数据组织方法和分析精度的相关性评定等,以.Net和Direct3D为开发工具,设计开发了基于QTM的海平面上升影响范围评估模型。该研究结果可为全球海平面上升影响的防灾减灾决策提供有效支撑,并推动了球面数据模型和球面格网拓扑分析的理论成果在全球变化预测相关领域的应用进展。

大气中CO_2增加引起全球变暖和海平面上升及其对珠江三角洲可能的影响

本文是根据国内外大量实测数据,说明全世界大气层中二氧化碳不断增多,出现“温室效应”,使全球变暖,近地面大气层气温变化的情况;从而引起海面水温变化,使海洋上冰块瓦解和融化,引起海平面上升。按世界各国学者研究的结果,近百年全球近地面大气层气温变化总的趋势是上升,北半球比较明显。海平面也有上升的趋势。按近40年中海平面可能上升0.4～1m的预测值,估计了海平面可能对珠江水位、沿海风暴潮潮位及咸潮入侵的影响,进而分析了对珠江三角洲、特别广洲可能产生的危害。作者认为全球变暖和海平面上升当前还是一个不确定性问题,宜加强科学研究和实测。

全球垂直基准在全球变化研究中的作用

介绍了全球垂直基准 (GVD)在监测与全球变化有关的海平面变化、现今地壳运动中的作用 ,论及GVD与国际地球参考架 (ITRF)的关系 ,对如何建立全球垂直基准及其精度作了讨论。研究表明只要按文中的方法进行卫星激光测距 (SLR)、全球定位系统 (GPS)观测与重力测量 ,则可使全球垂直基准比现今世界各地高程之差约 2m要提高一个数量级。

全球海平面上升机制和趋势及其环境效应

对全球海面上升的几种影响因素作了介绍和分析,对未来海面上升的估计值及其可能造成的环境影响,作了较系统的综述。