Exploring the complex structural evolution of global primary product trade network

The production and trade of primary products had a growing impact on the economic security of all countries and regions,and the strategic position of these products in the global trade network was becoming increasingly prominent.Based on complex network theory,this paper explored the spatial pattern and complex structural evolution of the global primary product trade network(GPPTN)during 1985-2015 by using index methods,such as centrality,Sankey diagram,and structure entropy,focusing on the diversified spatial structure of China’s import and export markets for primary products(with exceptions of Taiwan of China,Hong Kong of China,and Macao of China due to a lack of data)and their geographical implications for China’s energy security.The research offered the following key findings.The GPPTN showed an obvious spatial heterogeneity pattern,and the area of import consumption was more concentrated;however,the overall trend was decentralized.The trade center of gravity shifted eastwards and reflected the rise of emerging markets.The overall flow of the GPPTN was from west to east and from south to north.In terms of the community detection of the GPPTN,North America,Europe,and Asia increasingly presented an unbalanced“tripartite confrontation”.China’s exports of primary products were mainly concentrated in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN)and other peripheral regions of Asia,and its imports undergone a major transformation,gradually expanding from the peripheral regions of Asia to Africa,the Middle East,Latin America,and other parts of the world.Energy fuels also became the largest imported primary products.Based on the changing trend of structural entropy and main market share,the analysis showed that the stable supply of China’s energy diversification was gradually realized.In particular,the cooperation dividend proposed by the Belt and Road initiative became an important turning point and a strong support for the expansion of China’s energy market diversification pattern and guarantee of energy security.

The trade network of the Belt and Road Initiative and its topological relationship to the global trade network

Unimpeded trade is one of the cooperation priorities in the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China. On 15 May 2017, the Joint Communique of the Leaders Roundtable of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation reaffirmed the participants＇ shared commitment to build an open economy and ensure free and inclusive trade. The Belt and Road Initiative （BRI） is not only China＇s new action to drive its open and global develoPment, but also a platform for an increasing number of countries to explore free and inclusive trade and promote a universal, rule-based, open, non-discriminatory, and equitable multilateral trade system. It is therefore important to examine BRI and global trade networks. More specifically, the topological relationship between the this article first analyzes the community structure of trade networks using a community detection algorithm, and then estimates the topological relationship between different trade communities. The findings of this article are as follows. First, this research identified three trade communities and two sub-communities in the BRI trade network, in which China is the core, Russia is the sub-core of the biggest trade community, and India, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia are cores of the second trade community （South Asia-West Asia）. Second, it identified five trade communities in the global trade network, centred on China, USA, Russia, India-United Arab Emirates, and Ger- many-Netherlands-France-Britain and other European developed countries. Third, the topo- logical analysis indicated that in the global trade network, most BRI countries are attracted by the core nodes of the BRI regions, such as the China, Russia and India-United Arab Emirates core nodes, and have strong trade contacts with BRI countries. Most Central-East European countries are mainly attracted by Germany-Netherlands-France-Britain and other developed European countries with a low penetration of BRI trade. Although some Southeast Asian countries are incorporated into the Asia-Australia-South Africa community with China as the core, they still need to strengthen trade linkages with BRI countries.