The North Atlantic Oscillation Simulated by Versions 2 and 4 of IAP/ LASG GOALS Model

The capabilities of two versions of the Global–Ocean–Atmosphere–Land–System model (i.e. GOALS–2 and GOALS–4) developed at State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), are validated in terms of the simulations of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is currently the subject of considerable scientific interest. The results show that both GOALS–2 and GOALS–4 exhibit a realistic NAO signal associated with relatively reasonable spatial patterns of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, and precipitation. Generally speaking, the associated patterns of precipitation in GOALSs match better with the observation in comparison with the case of surface temperature. For the imprint of NAO on the ocean, or perhaps a coupling between the two fluids, the associated tripole patterns of the North Atlantic SST anomaly are presented distinctly in GOALS–2, for GOALS-4 however, this is not the case. Spatially, the models’ main deficiencies appear to be that the simulated Icelandic lows shift northward apparently, which in turn result in the blemish of GOALSs in reproducing the accompanied surface wind anomalies. For the interannual and even longer time scale variations of DJF sea level pressure (SLP) over the North Atlantic region, GOALSs reproduce the center with the strongest variability rationally, but the intensities are far weaker than the observation. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - Model evaluation - GOALS model This study was jointly supported by the National key Project (Grant No. 96-908-02-03), the Excel-lent National Key Laboratory Research Project (Grant NO. 49823002), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) under grant “ Bai Ren Ji Hua” for “ Validation of Coupled Climate Models”, and IAP innova-tion fund (No.8-1204).The authors gratefully acknowledge Dv. Jin Xuingze, Mr. Liu Xiying in IAP /LASG, and Dr. Gong Daoyi in Geophysical Department of Peking University for providing ardent help.

The Performance of Atmospheric Component Model R42L9 of GOALS/LASG

This paper examines the performance of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP). It is a spectral model truncated at R42(2.8125°long×1.66°lat) resolution and with nine vertical levels, and referred to as R42L9/LASG hereafter. It is also the new version of atmospheric component model R15L9 of the global ocean-atmosphere-land system (GOALS/LASG). A 40-year simulation in which the model is forced with the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature is compared with the 40-year (1958-97) U.S. National Center for Environmental Prediction (NGEP) global reanalysis and the 22-year (1979-2000) Xie-Arkin monthly precipitation climatology. The mean DJF and JJA geographical distributions of precipitation, sea level pressure, 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa and 200-hPa zonal wind, and other fields averaged for the last 30-year integration of the R42L9 model are analyzed. Results show that the model reproduces well the observed basic patterns, particularly precipitation over the East Asian region. Comparing the new model with R15L9/LASG, the old version with coarse resolution (nearly 7.5°long×4.5°lat), shows an obvious improvement in the simulation of regional climate, especially precipitation. The weaknesses in simulation and future improvements of the model are also discussed.

HEURISTIC MODELING FOR A DYNAMIC AND GOAL PROGRAMMING IN PRODUCTION PLANNING OF CONTINUOUS MANUFACTURING SYSTEMS

At the first sight it seems that advanced operation research is not used enough in continuous production systems as comparison with mass production, batch production and job shop systems, but really in a comprehensive evaluation the advanced operation research techniques can be used in continuous production systems in developing countries very widely, because of initial inadequate plant layout, stage by stage development of production lines, the purchase of second hand machineries from various countries, plurality of customers. A case of production system planning is proposed for a chemical company in which the above mentioned conditions are almost presented. The goals and constraints in this issue are as follows： （1） Minimizing deviation of customer＇s requirements. （2） Maximizing the profit. （3） Minimizing the frequencies of changes in formula production. （4） Minimizing the inventory of final products. （5） Balancing the production sections with regard to rate in production. （6） Limitation in inventory of raw material. The present situation is in such a way that various techniques such as goal programming, linear programming and dynamic programming can be used. But dynamic production programming issues are divided into two categories, at first one with limitation in production capacity and another with unlimited production capacity. For the first category, a systematic and acceptable solution has not been presented yet. Therefore an innovative method is used to convert the dynamic situation to a zero- one model. At last this issue is changed to a goal programming model with non-linear limitations with the use of GRG algorithm and that＇s how it is solved.

A Weighted Goal Programming Model for the DASH Diet Problem: Comparison with the Linear Programming DASH Diet Model

A Linear Programming DASH diet model for persons with hypertension has previously been formulated and daily minimum cost diet plans that satisfy the DASH diets’ tolerable intake level of the nutrients for 1500 mg a day Sodium level and different daily calorie levels were obtained using sample foods from the DASH diet eating plan chart. But the limitation in the use of linear programming model in selecting diet plans to meet specific nutritional requirements which normally results in the oversupply of certain nutrients was evident in the linear programming DASH diet plan obtained as the nutrient level of the diet plans obtained had wide deviations of from the DASH diets’ tolerable upper and lower intake level for the given calorie and sodium levels. Hence the need for a model that gives diet plans with minimized nutrients’ level deviations from the DASH diets’ tolerable intake level for different daily calorie and sodium level at desired cost. A weighted Goal Programming DASH diet model that minimizes the daily cost of the DASH eating plan as well as deviations of the diets’ nutrients content from the DASH diet’s tolerable intake levels is hereby presented in this work. The formulated weighted goal programming DASH diet model is further illustrated using chosen sample foods from the DASH food chart as used in the work on the linear programming DASH diet model for a 1500 mg sodium level and 2000 calories a day diet plan as well as for 1800, 2200, 2400, 2600, 2800 and 3000 daily calorie levels. A comparison of the DASH nutrients’ composition of the weighted Goal Programming DASH diet plans and those of the linear programming DASH diet plans were carried out at this sodium level and the different daily calorie levels. It was evident from the results of the comparison that the weighted goal programming DASH diet plans has minimized deviations from the DASH diet’s tolerable intake levels than those of the linear programming DASH diet plans.

目标导向模式改善基层血液透析质量的临床研究

目的探讨目标导向模式在提升基层血液透析质量中的效果。方法以2021年10月—2022年3月于郑州大学第一附属医院南院区接受维持性血液透析治疗的基层患者为研究对象,观察目标导向模式管理6 m后,患者血管通路、临床指标、生活质量和卫生经济学指标等的改善情况。结果共纳入85例患者。与基线相比,6 m后带隧道带涤纶套导管的使用比例由42.35%降至27.06%(χ_(2)=6.303,P=0.043),单室尿素清除指数<1.2的患者比例降至7.05%(χ_(2)=21.182,P<0.001),透析间期体质量增加<5%干体质量的患者比例增至70.59%(χ_(2)=43.895,P<0.001),血红蛋白(χ_(2)=15.824,P=0.001)、血钾(χ_(2)=4.541,P=0.033)、血白蛋白(χ_(2)=31.224,P<0.001)、血磷(χ_(2)=17.306,P<0.001)及全段甲状旁腺激素(χ_(2)=17.162,P<0.001)达标率均提高;患者满意度由48.24%上升至100%(χ_(2)=59.365,P<0.001),生活质量评分提高(t=-22.455,P<0.001);直接医疗总成本无明显增加(t=1.387,P=0.167)。结论目标导向模式有效改善了基层患者的血液透析质量,利于患者并发症控制及生活质量提高,且不额外增加医疗花费,具有较强的应用价值。

论教育目标的形式化表征

教育目标是教育实践的起点和归宿。从教育系统设计的角度看,教育目标具有公共性和可达性,它为教育系统设计提供了指引性信息。教育目标领域可以分为能力领域和价值领域,前者呼应的是事实性真理,后者呼应的是价值性真理。而不呼应任何真理领域的情感态度不是一种独立的教育目标领域,不满足公共性和可达性的要求,它只是价值学习的伴生物。与自然语言表征相比,教育目标的形式化表征更容易满足清晰性、整体性、可组合性以及高设计分辨力的要求。能力建模图和它所关联的知识建模图以及二元组(知识点,学习水平)可以用来形式化表征能力目标,蕴含着知识建模图和价值矛盾体的价值建模图以及二元组(价值,学习水平)可以用来形式化表征价值目标。有了形式化表征方法,便不会在教育目标描述中混淆目标与任务或计划,也不再需要用大而无当的语词来描述教育目标。

Post Millennium Development Goals Prospect on Child Mortality in India: An Analysis Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) Model

Background & Objectives: Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are set up as a part of the Post Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Then it becomes essential to review the achievement of the MDGs in India and lessons learned to incorporate into the SDGs. The present study reviews and predicts different components of under-five mortality rate beyond 2015 to assess the present situation and to determine the future possibilities of achieving the new targets for SDGs in India. Data and Methods: It uses available time series data on different components of U5MR from the India’s Sample Registration System (SRS). Autoregressive Integrated Moving Averages (ARIMA) model has been taken as the method of time series analysis to forecast the mortality rates beyond 2015. Results: There is a consistent pattern of faster decline in the under-five mortality compared with the neonatal mortality rate across all major states in India although neonatal mortality contributes largest share in under-five mortality. Again, share of neonatal death among under-five death is increasing steadily over the future projected years. This indicates very slow progress of reduction in neonatal mortality. Stimulating efforts with new intervention programmes will be needed to focus more on lowering neonatal mortality particularly in rural India.

基于目标导向的护理模式在脑胶质瘤患者中的应用价值及对自护能力的影响

目的探究基于目标导向的护理模式在脑胶质瘤患者中的应用价值及对自护能力的影响。方法选择2020年2月至2022年2月于我院进行手术治疗的117例脑胶质瘤患者为研究对象,以交叉双盲法将其分为常规护理组(52例,常规护理)和目标导向组(65例,基于目标导向的护理模式)。比较两组的护理效果。结果护理后,目标导向组的生活态度、生活目标、自我控制、人际关系、接受与适应评分及总分高于常规护理组(P<0.05)。护理后,目标导向组的汉密尔顿焦虑量表(HAMA)、汉密尔顿抑郁量表(HAMD)、匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI)、癌症疲乏量表(CFS)、视觉模拟量表(VAS)评分低于常规护理组(P<0.05)。护理后,目标导向组的自我护理能力量表(ESCA)评分高于常规护理组(P<0.05)。目标导向组的护理满意度高于常规护理组(P<0.05)。结论基于目标导向的护理模式在脑胶质瘤患者中的应用价值较高。

伟大建党精神融入思政课的路径与实践

基于目标导向理论和问题导向法构建的“目标+问题”教学模型与伟大建党精神在马克思主义理论逻辑、思想政治教育逻辑以及教学实践逻辑中展现出较高的适应性。在该模型框架下,伟大建党精神可通过教学目标、教学内容和教学评价被有机融入思政课,确保其核心内涵和具体内容在整个教学流程中得到充分体现。实践证明,“目标+问题”教学模型能有效促进伟大建党精神在思政课中的融入度,进而提高教学效果,推动思政课的内涵式发展。

数字能力如何促进农户农田碳汇技术采纳?——基于山东省粮食种植户的微观证据

数字化是驱动农业高质量发展的强劲动能,研究数字能力对农户农田碳汇技术采纳的影响,有助于为农业生产实现“双碳”目标提供新思路。本文基于山东省408个粮食种植户的微观调研数据,从数字接入、数字使用和数字转化3个维度构建数字能力指数,利用Oprobit模型实证分析了数字能力对农户农田碳汇技术采纳的影响。本研究发现:1)数字能力提升有助于农户农田碳汇技术采纳,且分维度来看,数字使用能力的影响效应高于数字接入能力和数字转化能力,是促进农户实施农田碳汇技术的关键因素。2)提高农户数字能力可以通过增加土地流转和提高机械化生产水平促进农田碳汇技术采纳。3)数字技术推广强化了数字能力对农户农田碳汇技术采纳的影响,且正规推广的效力高于非正规推广。为此,未来应加强农户数字能力培训,并重视不同维度数字能力的作用差异,增强其与数字技术推广的互动功能,为我国农业绿色低碳转型奠定良好基础。

陆地高分辨率水文—生物地球化学过程CNMM-DNDC三维模型的研发及应用进展

CNMM-DNDC模型是本文作者团队研发的陆地高分辨率水文—生物地球化学过程三维模型。本文系统介绍了建模背景和理念、核心过程和模型特点、模拟功能和观测验证、多尺度区域或流域初步应用以及未来发展展望。自2018年刊发首个版本以来,该模型经过了多方面科学过程改进和模拟功能扩展,在元素化学反应、物质相变和机械迁移等基本物理、化学、生物过程层面,完成了对陆地表层系统碳氮磷水循环全耦合的精细刻画。迄今开展的观测验证表明,CNMM-DNDC模型基本普适于不同生物气候带(从热带到寒区多年冻土地带)的流域或区域长时间序列“三高”(时间、空间和过程高分辨率)综合模拟,实现对陆地生态系统的碳、氮、磷、水三维运移、水土流失、水力驱动溶解态和颗粒态碳氮磷横向迁移、碳氮温室气体和污染气体排放、生态系统生产力、水分蒸散发和水分能量平衡等众多可持续发展目标表征变量的预测。该模型广泛推广应用于多尺度区域或流域的复杂过程虚拟科学试验研究和服务于面向生态环境建设与减污降碳的优化调控决策,可望为协同落实联合国多个可持续发展目标提供先进的数值模拟技术支撑。

协调发展视角下大南昌都市圈城市增长边界的划定

科学划定城市增长边界(UGB)能合理引导城市发展方向,有效抑制无序蔓延。基于协调发展视角,结合多目标土地利用适宜性评价方法与PLUS模型划定大南昌都市圈刚性UGB及自然增长、政策约束、协调发展3种情景下的弹性UGB。结果表明:①多目标土地利用适宜性呈现空间差异且存在重叠和交叉,协调发展最适宜区与农业生产最适宜区、生态保护最重要区重叠面积相比城镇建设最适宜区均有所下降;②刚性UGB面积占研究区总面积的76.11%,保障大南昌都市圈城市扩张严格遵循生态保护红线和粮食安全底线;③PLUS模型模拟结果总体呈耕地、林地、草地、未利用地减少以及水域和建设用地增加的趋势,其中建设用地扩张最显著,但协调发展情景下城市扩张得到有效约束,且该情景下弹性UGB能有效减缓城市扩张占用农业或生态价值最高区域,更能优化城市景观格局。研究结果有利于引导和实现大南昌都市圈城市可持续发展,也可为其他城市三生空间协调发展提供参考。

“双碳”目标下农业绿色生产水平测度及影响因素分析

“双碳”目标的提出为我国农业绿色生产指明了新方向,同时也提出了新要求。基于习近平生态文明思想,建立农业绿色生产指标体系,选取河南省18个地级市2012—2022年的数据进行综合测度,并采用障碍度模型进行影响因素分析。研究结果显示,农业绿色生产水平呈直线上升趋势;从区域看,各地区农业绿色生产水平整体呈逐年递增趋势,其中,豫北地区和豫中地区发展水平较高。影响农业绿色生产的因素主要集中在资源利用维度,其中作用强度排名前三的影响因素分别为节水灌溉率、农村人均收入水平和农业劳动生产率。因此,应同步推进资源节约与资源利用效率提升,因地制宜推动农业绿色发展,完善节能政策和减排政策。

煤炭地下气化开发利用现状与发展趋势

煤炭地下气化(UCG)作为一种可以将固体煤转化为气体燃料的技术,将煤炭在地下进行气化反应,可以缓解由于在地上燃烧煤炭而产生的大气污染,助力碳减排社会效益,对于实现低碳发展具有重要作用。以建立“清洁、低碳、安全、高效”的能源获取方式为出发点,介绍了我国煤炭地下气化的研究历程、发展目标和政策方针,对我国发布的关于煤炭资源利用和煤炭地下气化技术的相关政策进行了分析解读。分别从经济、环境、社会效益3个维度对煤炭地下气化的开发利用价值进行分析,指出煤炭地下气化技术的开发利用可以为我国煤炭行业带来一定的效益。同时,在推动煤炭地下气化技术的发展过程中,还要注重环境保护和管理措施,确保技术实施的安全性和可持续性。基于PESTEL模型从政治、经济、社会、技术、环境、法律5个方面对煤炭地下气化技术的开发进行全面、系统的分析,并阐述了我国煤炭地下气化技术发展的不利因素。最后根据PESTEL模型分析结果,从技术、政策和环境3个方面对我国煤炭地下气化的发展提出了相应的解决方案和政策性建议。结果表明,煤炭地下气化技术具有潜在的经济和环境优势,需加强国内高校、企业与能源公司的协同合作,扩大国际合作范围,并制定和执行环境保护措施,以推动煤炭地下气化技术的发展,实现可持续能源开发和环境保护的双赢。

一种面向空情雷达模拟训练的对抗操作性能级建模与仿真

针对面向模拟训练的空情雷达系统模型中反侦察、抗干扰对抗操作模型不完备的问题,以模拟训练领域对抗操作模型建模需求为牵引,从探测增益与探测损失两个角度出发,定义了各对抗操作的输出因子,建立了输入性能指标与输出因子间的映射关系,构建出一套典型对抗操作的性能级模型。在数字化软件工具中的测试应用表明,该套模型能够有效模拟对抗操作的使用效果,嵌入雷达系统功能级模型后能够提升雷达系统模型完备性,在模拟训练领域具有一定应用潜力。

“双碳”目标下竹制航模技术探索

“双碳”目标是我国基于推动构建人类命运共同体的责任担当和实现可持续发展的内在要求而作出的重大战略决策,为了实现“双碳”目标,需要国家、社会、个人各个层面从小到大做出具体性措施,作为高校学子,西北工业大学民航学院“航育”团队在田薇老师的带领下,结合学校三航特色及学生专业性技能,自主研发制作了一种新型环保型航模,团队取材于西北工业大学定点帮扶地区——广西壮族自治区“毛竹之乡”融水,利用当地丰富的毛竹资源,探讨了竹材料在各向的力学性能,并针对传统型航模的短板,制作出一种更环保更实惠的航模,与当地特色苗族文化进行交融,在乡村振兴战略下为“双碳”目标作出自己的贡献。

基于脱钩指数和LMDI的第三产业用水发展研究

第三产业在我国国民经济中占有重要地位,识别用水与产业发展关系并合理控制用水发展对于未来管控用水增长具有重要意义。基于Tapio脱钩模型和LMDI分解模型,分析我国内地31个省级行政区2000—2020年第三产业经济与用水的脱钩时空演化及其驱动效应,并基于分析结果对未来第三产业的用水目标和节水压力开展情景分析。结果表明:在时间尺度上,目前我国第三产业实现了稳定弱脱钩,经济年均增长率为12.2%,远高于用水年均变化率3.6%,2012年后全国强脱钩范围扩大;在空间尺度上,不同地区第三产业脱钩状态存在差异,东部和西部地区脱钩状态较好,实现良好脱钩的省市区占比可达到70%~80%;驱动因素方面,第三产业脱钩的负向驱动效应主要是经济规模,正向驱动效应是节水能力,东部和西部地区节水能力效应贡献率达到56.8%、52.6%,中部地区贡献率仅为38.3%,驱动因素作用程度存在差异从而影响脱钩;未来为实现我国第三产业协调可持续发展,在发展经济时将面临一定节水压力,其增长过程具有规模累积效应与时间累积效应,在经济高速发展至2050年时将达到8.8%。在未来长期规划下更应重视强化节水能力,以促进第三产业良好脱钩,从而实现协调可持续发展。

中国再制造产业的碳减排效应和经济影响分析

发展再制造有助于推动碳减排,但不同再制造产业规模下的碳减排效应和经济影响仍不明确。将再制造产业作为一个部门引入一般均衡模型,结合结构路径分析法,解析再制造如何影响碳排放和经济发展,并量化评估再制造带来的碳减排效应和经济影响。结果表明,再制造能够减少对电力生产和供应、金属冶炼的需求,从而带动碳排放总量下降0.02%~0.31%,但造成GDP 0.003%~0.043%的小幅下降;地方再制造产业的发展能够通过区域间贸易影响其他地区的生产活动,并进一步带动其他地区的碳减排;随着产业规模的扩大,再制造能创造更多就业岗位,但未来劳动力价格上升也可能制约其进一步发展。

小学数学模型意识的内涵、表现与教学——兼论核心素养的表现性目标

模型意识是小学数学课程中需要落实的核心素养,其内涵兼具作为结构的模型与作为过程的建模两方面。模型意识的形成需要经历这样的过程:识别现实情境,进行数学化建构关系,经过一般化后用以解决同类问题。具体而言,有识别、表征、抽象、概括四个层次的表现。要落实模型意识,需要根据其内涵确定表现性目标,设计并实施相应的表现性任务,之后应用表现性评价对核心素养的发展进行评价。在教学中,需要联系真实生活情境,关注发现和提出问题;经历数学化过程,关注情境表征和抽象;充分运用多种表征,关注对比和联系。在这样的过程中感悟模型的普适性,发展模型意识。

基于全局时序因子分析的中国区域绿色技术创新环境评价

为探究绿色技术创新环境水平及其提升路径,基于2017—2021年中国31个省份的数据样本,从区域层面构建绿色技术创新环境评价指标体系,引入全局时序因子分析法识别其中实际起作用的主要维度,对绿色技术创新环境水平进行评分,并用蝴蝶模型对比区域间差异。结果表明:基本公共服务、城市发展、政策效率、资源供给与绿色生活是影响绿色技术创新环境的4个主要维度;各区域绿色技术创新环境水平整体差异大,资源供给与绿色生活和城市发展方面差异最显著。建议通过政策引导、加大投入、扩大开放等措施实现资源跨区域流动,提升绿色技术创新环境。