Hydrological Simulation Using TRMM and CHIRPS Precipitation Estimates in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin

Satellite-based products with high spatial and temporal resolution provide useful precipitation information for data-sparse or ungauged large-scale watersheds. In the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, rainfall stations are sparse and unevenly distributed, and the transboundary characteristic makes the collection of precipitation data more difficult, which has restricted hydrological processes simulation. In this study, daily precipitation data from four datasets(gauge observations, inverse distance weighted(IDW) data, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM) estimates, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations(CHIRPS) estimates), were applied to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT) model, and then their capability for hydrological simulation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin were examined. TRMM and CHIRPS data showed good performances on precipitation estimation in the Lower Lancang-Mekong River Basin, with the better performance for TRMM product. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE) values of gauge, IDW, TRMM, and CHIRPS simulations during the calibration period were 0.87, 0.86, 0.95, and 0.93 for monthly flow, respectively, and those for daily flow were 0.75, 0.77, 0.86, and 0.84, respectively. TRMM and CHIRPS data were superior to rain gauge and IDW data for driving the hydrological model, and TRMM data produced the best simulation performance. Satellite-based precipitation estimates could be suitable data sources when simulating hydrological processes for large data-poor or ungauged watersheds, especially in international river basins for which precipitation observations are difficult to collect. CHIRPS data provide long precipitation time series from 1981 to near present and thus could be used as an alternative precipitation input for hydrological simulation, especially for the period without TRMM data. For satellite-based precipitation products, the differences in the occurrence frequencies and amounts of precipitation with different intensities would affect simulation results of water balance components, which should be comprehensively considered in water resources estimation and planning.

A Risk-Based Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Approach to Evaluating Transboundary Water Development—The Case of Lower Mekong River Basin

The Lower Mekong River basin (LMB) covers the lower part of the Mekong river basin, including Laos, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam. Due to numerous pressures from high population growth and intensive hydropower development, the LMB has been facing significant challenges concerning its biodiversity and ecosystem. In 2017, Mekong River Commission (MRC), an intergovernmental organisation founded in 1995 among LMB countries, established the Council Study, which analysed the impacts of water development scenarios concerning the environmental, socioeconomic aspects of the LMB. This paper explores the nature of risks to the LMB water development and subsequently evaluates LMB’s water development scenarios described in the Council Study by using a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method. MCDA method has been widely applied in the field of water resource management in order to assist the decision-making process by systematically evaluating a certain number of alternatives against well-selected criteria through a preference rating scheme. By implementing a risk-based comprehensive assessment of the LMB transboundary water, this study provides insights into the impacts of the increasing risks to the ecosystem and human beings on the water development of the basin over time, which assists to change the awareness and the perspective toward humans’ risks and transboundary river ecosystem of decision-makers. This paper provides valuable recommendations for MRC to improve their policy concerning benefit-sharing scheme, water planning and risk mitigation strategies.

Evaluation of Transboundary Water Resource Development in Mekong River Basin: The Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in the Context of Water Cooperation

Mekong River is one of the major international freshwater sources in the world. The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) comprised of four downstream countries, including Thailand, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Vietnam. The utilization of the basin’s water brings not only substantial benefits to the region ranging from hydropower to navigation, but also negative impacts caused by the unbalanced water using. The essential role of Mekong River requires all member nations to cooperate effectively for the sustainable development of the region. One of the most popular methods in the field of water resource management is a trustable tool called the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). AHP is much appropriate for water resource policymaking. The literature, however, points out that there is no study to both structure the water using hierarchy and employ quantitative (objective) criteria to the AHP model in LMB case. With regard to water resource management, there are no previous studies applying AHP models to evaluating sustainable development of transboundary water resource in LMB case. This paper explores the evolution of water cooperation among Mekong countries and subsequently evaluates the water development scenarios in the LMB based on the water cooperation preferences of four LMB countries This study proposes a novel approach to analyzing, assessing water resource development scenarios characterized by sustainability indicators and to assisting in developing a suitable water policy in LMB according to the best cooperation scenario.

Using Artificial Neural Network to Estimate Sediment Load in Ungauged Catchments of the Tonle Sap River Basin, Cambodia

Concern on alteration of sediment natural flow caused by developments of water resources system, has been addressed in many river basins around the world especially in developing and remote regions where sediment data are poorly gauged or ungauged. Since suspended sediment load (SSL) is predominant, the objectives of this research are to: 1) simulate monthly average SSL (SSLm) of four catchments using artificial neural network (ANN);2) assess the application of the calibrated ANN (Cal-ANN) models in three ungauged catchment representatives (UCR) before using them to predict SSLm of three actual ungauged catchments (AUC) in the Tonle Sap River Basin;and 3) estimate annual SSL (SSLA) of each AUC for the case of with and without dam-reservoirs. The model performance for total load (SSLT) prediction was also investigated because it is important for dam-reservoir management. For model simulation, ANN yielded very satisfactory results with determination coefficient (R2) ranging from 0.81 to 0.94 in calibration stage and 0.63 to 0.87 in validation stage. The Cal-ANN models also performed well in UCRs with R2 ranging from 0.59 to 0.64. From the result of this study, one can estimate SSLm and SSLT of ungauged catchments with an accuracy of 0.61 in term of R2 and 34.06% in term of absolute percentage bias, respectively. SSLA of the AUCs was found between 159,281 and 723,580 t/year. In combination with Brune’s method, the impact of dam-reservoirs could reduce SSLA between 47% and 68%. This result is key information for sustainable development of such infrastructures.

Achieving fish passage outcomes at irrigation infrastructure;a case study from the Lower Mekong Basin

Irrigation infrastructure expansion threatens the diversity of freshwater fish worldwide.Irrigation infrastructure creates migration barriers which can block access to important nursery,feeding and spawning habitat.Lao PDR is a landlocked country situated within the Lower Mekong River Basin where there is a substantial dependency on rice and fish for food,income and livelihoods.The country is experiencing an unprecedented boom in irrigation infrastructure investment,with modernisation programs being implemented in every province.Despite significant investment in infrastructure upgrades,and the potential impact on freshwater fish,little consideration has been given to fish passage solutions.In 2008,we commenced a fish passage program in Lao PDR.The intent of this case study is to outline the pivotal elements of the program of knowledge development and transfer,in the context of river connectivity and fisheries management in Lao PDR.We also highlight challenges in international research in development and lessons learned.

区域治理视阈下的澜湄环保合作:进展、问题与对策

湄公河流域国家面临着陆地、海洋和空气等方面的环境问题,本身就有开展区域环境治理的需求。澜湄流域山水相连且同属发展中国家,在应对全球和地区环境问题上立场一致、责任相当,需求互补,双方的环保合作取得了积极的进展。但在双方的合作中还存在缺乏对环境的监测,中国环保的国际形象有待提升,中国民间对环保国际合作的参与度不高,中国还面临着来自外部大国和国际组织的竞争等问题。为了释放澜湄环保合作潜力,中国可从区域治理视阈出发,完善对区域环境的监测预警,着力提升自身国际形象,同湄公河国家开展环保联合执法,鼓励环保社会组织的参与,开展同流域国家的环保产业合作。

澜沧江下游/湄公河上游片断热带雨林物种多样性动态(英文)

在澜沧江下游/湄公河上游的滇南西双版纳地区,通过样方法比较了热带雨林的连片与 3个小片断的物种多样性变化趋势。与连续森林比较,片断热带雨林的植物物种丰富度和物种多样性指数都比较低,而且有相当低比例的大高位芽、中高位芽和附生等生活型植物,而藤本、小高位芽和矮高位芽等生活型植物的比例则较高;泛热带、热带亚洲至热带非洲的区系成分比例较高,而当地成分则减少;群落的上层树木比下层树木更加稳定。同样,动物的物种多样性指数和均衡度在片断热带雨林中都较低,与其密切相关的是片断热带雨林的环境质量,而不是片断的大小。此外,也探讨了片断热带雨林物种变化与森林小气候的关系,阐明了由凉湿向干暖转化的 林内效应"是其物种变化的重要原因之一。

澜沧江—湄公河流域合作治理体系的理论基础与实现途径

全球一体化进程的推进,使得如何有效对跨国跨流域的敏感区、问题区实施治理成为区域性乃至全球性的问题。近年来,中国作为区域性负责任的大国,在澜沧江—湄公河流域开展一系列多国联合执法、替代种植等跨流域治理的实践活动。通过对这些实践的总结,我们认为跨流域创新治理体系的构建是解决跨国区域的关键,一方面要打破传统政府单一主导的方式,构建合理的参与机制与互动网络,打破传统的国家一元管理形式和单一的政府管理主体,开展多元治理和多级治理,重塑政府—社会之间的联系,引入企业、公民社会、非政府组织等不同主体共同实施对区域的联合治理;另一方面,则需做好区域合作顶层战略设计,开展多学科多领域的跨流域发展规划,制定多主体积极参与的制度体系,共同构建持续共赢的跨流域利益联合体。

湄公河计划的区域合作实践与“湄公精神

1957年10月,下湄公流域协作调查委员会(湄委会)成立,湄公河计划正式启动,直至1975年转型。其间,湄公河计划的区域合作实践取得了丰硕成果。一方面,在湄公河流域启动和建成一大批水电站、排灌站、水文站、气象站和试验农场等重要设施,并在航道改进及经济、社会诸领域取得重要进展,为湄公河流域的持续开发和治理奠定了稳固的物质基础。另一方面,在行动和规范上逐步形成一系列颇具自身特色的实践特性。前者主要包括规划建设的整体性、合作领域的综合性、参与主体的多元性和互动层次的跨域性等;后者则主要形成了以湄委会为中心的制度架构和全体一致、共识性决策、共同参与等规范原则,并孕育了以共同目标意识、超越政治分歧的团结意识和合作精神为核心内涵的区域合作"湄公精神"。这些实践特性及规范原则构成二战后新生的区域合作"亚洲方式"的重要组成部分,而后融入东南亚本地区域合作实践进程,成为"东盟方式"的重要规范来源。

澜湄流域跨境水资源合作机制研究

跨境水资源合作对于澜湄国家命运共同体的建设意义重大,开展国际合作是化解当前跨境水资源合作难题的必然选择。由于国际硬法制定的繁杂性以及实施效果的不确定性,可以从国际软法入手,开展澜湄流域跨境水资源合作。澜湄流域水资源合作机制已经在机制构建、信息共享、科技文化交流等方面取得一系列成绩,但仍需要通过建立联合管理机构、扩大自身影响力、鼓励流域国共同参与、增加合作主体类型等来完善,以加快建设澜湄流域国家命运共同体的步伐,推动澜湄流域各国经济和社会的发展。

大湄公河合作开发与综合治理——兼论国际水法理论的发展

大湄公河资源开发包括水电、航运、矿产、渔业和旅游等多个领域,各流域国单方面开发势必加剧开发的负外部性,使这个流域国的共有资源沦为公共劣品。国际水法理论为化解流域国之间的分歧与冲突,协调彼此利益,进而合作开发与综合治理大湄公河提供了谈判协商的基础。本文认为,各流域国应寻求利益共享和利益共赢机制,达成有约束力的"一揽子"开发治理的框架协议,形成开发治理的内驱动力。积极推动大湄公河合作开发与综合治理,不仅有益于中国与湄公河国家友好关系的发展,也是中国睦邻外交内容的丰富与手段的创新。

下湄公河流域国际组织机构及相应法律文件研究

本文回顾了下湄公河流域合作开发与管理的有关国际组织机构变化，分析了《下湄公河流域持续发展合作协定》诞生及新湄委会成立的背景；对比了该流域有关水资源及相关资源开发利用和管理的法律法规条款变化。

澜湄流域跨境航运的多层次网络治理机制

在“一带一路”倡议大背景下,澜湄合作机制将“互联互通”纳入五大优先合作方向,对澜沧江-湄公河流域的跨境航运治理提出了新要求。随着全球化、信息化和区域一体化的发展,流域内的单一科层治理、市场治理传统模式频现失灵,网络化提供了不同的视角与方法。兼具“圈层”和“网络”双重结构特征的多层次网络治理结构,从“政府-市场-社会”3个层面通过科层、市场、网络治理方式共同发力,借鉴莱茵河的成功治理经验,给予涉水企业、民众、NGO、智库、媒体、科研机构等非政府主体更多治理权限,并结合澜湄流域实际情况提出多层次网络治理机制体系建议,以求改善澜湄跨境航运合作困境。

跨境社会工作与边境区域非传统安全治理以“澜沧江-湄公河流域合作”为例

“澜沧江-湄公河流域合作”行动是我国肩负构建人类命运共同体理念的区域性关键举措,构建多主体协同合作、实现共同体治理,成为我国下一步深化与周边国家合作的重要战略。社会工作有效介入基层社会问题化解,参与推动社会良性运转,在治理共同体建设中扮演关键角色。我国“澜湄合作”所涉边境乡镇已经培育了组织完备的社会工作机构,搭建成熟的乡镇社会工作站点体系,在边境村寨社区成长起一批社会工作者,在精准扶贫、犯罪矫治、移民安置、控辍保学等领域积累了丰富的社区治理经验,其成果可以拓展到边境治理现代化领域。通过搭建多国社会工作联盟平台,形成社会工作者人才网络,在犯罪预防、健康管理、职业教育推广、精准扶贫等多领域进行深度合作,发挥民间层面互惠互助优势,建立基层社会的互利互信机制,将我国担负构建“人类命运共同体”使命渗透到具体社会工作服务案例,为建立开放包容、协同共治的边境治理现代化奠定基础。

湄公河下游水资源开发与环境保护--各国政策取向与流域治理

作为世界上水资源最为丰富的河流之一,湄公河水电开发一方面符合流域国家的共同利益,通过水电大坝建设促进经济发展的趋势不可避免;但另一方面,下游国家也会长期面临环境保护的压力。如何妥善处理水资源开发与环境保护之间的关系、在上下游国家之间合理分配成本与收益,将成为影响流域国家间关系的重要议题。在水电资源开发与生态环境保护关系问题上,国际社会和业界专家基于不同的立场,并没有达成一致意见。但可以肯定的是,在大坝规划和建设中更加注重保护生态环境,更多地体现受影响群体在利益分享中的诉求已是大势所趋,同时也为大坝建设国和相关行为体的水资源管理能力提出了更高的要求。然而,湄公河下游国家在水资源管理方面仍存在若干不足,阻碍了流域综合治理的实现,主要表现在以下方面:下游各国的利益诉求不甚统一;作为流域唯一的专门水资源管理机构,湄公河委员会的权威性不足;国际非政府组织和域外国家的介入等。中国作为湄公河上游国家,应及时把握下游水电开发的新动向,客观分析下游各国的不同利益诉求,积极参与流域环境保护。

全球治理的区域路径

从经验和规范上看,区域治理已被视作当代全球治理体系的重要组成部分。"大区域观"将通常界定的特定地理区域治理的互动层次向上延伸至区域间或跨区域,据此提出全球治理的三种区域路径:全球治理中的区域治理--区域作为全球治理体系中的一个内部治理层次,即"从外到内的路径";区域治理中的全球治理--全球作为区域治理体系中一个外部治理层次,即"从内到外的路径";全球-地方联结中的区域间治理--新区域作为全球-区域治理体系中的一个新型层次,即"内外融合的路径"。第一种路径的核心力量来自域外行为体,依据的核心制度平台是全球性组织及全球多边机制;第二种路径的核心力量来自域内行为体,依据的核心制度平台是区域组织及区域多边机制;第三种路径的核心力量来自不同区域的区域组织或一组国家,依据的核心制度平台是区域间或跨区域的制度。对湄公河下游早期治理、东南亚气候治理和中国区域间治理等典型案例的分析,揭示了这三种路径的运行机制及其经验合理性。