Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gesti...Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.展开更多
Current situation of the second-hand housing market Relatively speaking,we don’t pay much attention to the second-hand housing market.Therefore,this article has certain practical significance to predict the second-ha...Current situation of the second-hand housing market Relatively speaking,we don’t pay much attention to the second-hand housing market.Therefore,this article has certain practical significance to predict the second-hand housing prices index.In 2005,China began to pursue the reform of the real estate tax and the second-hand housing transaction must pay personal tax.In 2006,the central bank increased mortgage interest rate,the state administration of taxation introduced the business tax policy展开更多
The financial crisis of 2008 left the U.S. economy in a state of severe recession, which is still being felt all over. This has also left the government in a frantic condition to rebuild the financial markets from the...The financial crisis of 2008 left the U.S. economy in a state of severe recession, which is still being felt all over. This has also left the government in a frantic condition to rebuild the financial markets from the bottom up. What started out with excessive bank lending on mortgages lead to the mortgage crisis and a ripple effect on the economy. The cancer has spread globally, affecting every major marketplace and all the major states in the U.S.. Our economy is still very fragile because of this crisis, but eventually we will recover in a few years time to achieve robust economic growth. Long standing cultural pressures in the United States maintained that home ownership was necessary to be a part of the American Dream, and this cultural stance was reinforced by Clinton in 1994, when he enacted a program to raise home ownership to more than two-thirds of all adults. With the tacit blessing of the Federal Government, many mortgage companies sprung up, that catered to those in lower income brackets, offering them the mortgages that many did not have the financial sophistication to understand and deliver. Coupled with the skyrocketing costs of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, many homeowners found themselves unable to pay their mortgages. The whole industry tanked, causing displacement of people and increased unemployment. The lenders of these mortgages sold the notes to investment bankers, and they were sold as high-quality investment grade securities. The major rating agencies were complacent in this tactic, causing rapid default rates on these mortgages; many commercial and investment banks got caught in this crisis. The prices of homes continue to decline, and many homeowners find themselves under water on their mortgages. It was found that in 2010, the U.S. government was responsible for nine out of every ten mortgages issued, which caused further problems with Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac. The crisis is still continuing, with no end in sight. The analysis was based on the data analysis and readings from the journal, as well as various Wall Street commentaries.展开更多
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We constru...The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We construct vector autoregression （VAR） model with variables such as unemployment rate （UMR）, consumer confidence index （CCI）, the Dow Jones industrial index （DJI）, and interest rate, etc., to forecast the HMI. Our model and analysis show that U.S. HMI very sensitive to unemployment and interest rates. Every 1% moves in unemployment and interest rates will result in HMI to move in the opposite direction by 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. However, changes in CCI and stock mark index have only minor impacts on HMI--0.49% and 0.3%, changes for 1% fluctuation in CCI and DJI. Our research also shows that relationships among these variables associated with housing market are very stable in the long run.展开更多
文摘Through using game theory,a game model of lendingand borrowing money between banks and individuals isestablished to explain how the risks come into being and are transferred in the dynamic point of view.Some sug-gestions about how to avoid the risks are proposed.
文摘Current situation of the second-hand housing market Relatively speaking,we don’t pay much attention to the second-hand housing market.Therefore,this article has certain practical significance to predict the second-hand housing prices index.In 2005,China began to pursue the reform of the real estate tax and the second-hand housing transaction must pay personal tax.In 2006,the central bank increased mortgage interest rate,the state administration of taxation introduced the business tax policy
文摘The financial crisis of 2008 left the U.S. economy in a state of severe recession, which is still being felt all over. This has also left the government in a frantic condition to rebuild the financial markets from the bottom up. What started out with excessive bank lending on mortgages lead to the mortgage crisis and a ripple effect on the economy. The cancer has spread globally, affecting every major marketplace and all the major states in the U.S.. Our economy is still very fragile because of this crisis, but eventually we will recover in a few years time to achieve robust economic growth. Long standing cultural pressures in the United States maintained that home ownership was necessary to be a part of the American Dream, and this cultural stance was reinforced by Clinton in 1994, when he enacted a program to raise home ownership to more than two-thirds of all adults. With the tacit blessing of the Federal Government, many mortgage companies sprung up, that catered to those in lower income brackets, offering them the mortgages that many did not have the financial sophistication to understand and deliver. Coupled with the skyrocketing costs of property taxes, insurance, and maintenance costs, many homeowners found themselves unable to pay their mortgages. The whole industry tanked, causing displacement of people and increased unemployment. The lenders of these mortgages sold the notes to investment bankers, and they were sold as high-quality investment grade securities. The major rating agencies were complacent in this tactic, causing rapid default rates on these mortgages; many commercial and investment banks got caught in this crisis. The prices of homes continue to decline, and many homeowners find themselves under water on their mortgages. It was found that in 2010, the U.S. government was responsible for nine out of every ten mortgages issued, which caused further problems with Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac. The crisis is still continuing, with no end in sight. The analysis was based on the data analysis and readings from the journal, as well as various Wall Street commentaries.
文摘The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among the variables, and how interest rate, unemployment, stock market, and consumer confidence affect housing market index （HM1） in the U.S.. We construct vector autoregression （VAR） model with variables such as unemployment rate （UMR）, consumer confidence index （CCI）, the Dow Jones industrial index （DJI）, and interest rate, etc., to forecast the HMI. Our model and analysis show that U.S. HMI very sensitive to unemployment and interest rates. Every 1% moves in unemployment and interest rates will result in HMI to move in the opposite direction by 11.7% and 11.4% respectively. However, changes in CCI and stock mark index have only minor impacts on HMI--0.49% and 0.3%, changes for 1% fluctuation in CCI and DJI. Our research also shows that relationships among these variables associated with housing market are very stable in the long run.
