CORN PRODUCTION: IMPORTANT WAY TO SECURITY IN GRAIN AND FORAGE

The issue of grain supply, once again, has aroused the attention of Chinese and foreigners, since last year’s price rises in the main agricultural products. Although most people believe that China can feed herself in the next 20-30 years, it is not an easy task. With such difficulties as increasing population, decreasing arable lands, insufficient water supply, declining grain sown-areas, limited agricultural input and low production enthusiasm, how to resolve the grain issue is becoming a matter that must be settled.

Modeling the effects of urbanization on grain production and consumption in China

The impact of rapid urbanization on food security of China has received considerable attention.It is not clear whether China can strike a balance between urbanization and food security,especially grain security.There have been numerous studies examining the effects of urbanization on grain production or consumption,but few studies have yet analyzed grain balances.Based on the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model（CWARMEM）,this paper explores the impacts of urbanization on national and regional grain balances through different scenarios.The CWARMEM is a global partial equilibrium multimarket model which captures the differences between urban and rural residents as well as the effects of globalization.The results show that urbanization has a small negative effect on maintaining grain self-sufficiency.Despite of that,China is able to achieve the objective of grain security set by its policymakers.Moreover,urbanization changes regional grain balances across China：The position of Northeast China and North China,as two dominant grain suppliers of China,will be weaken;Central China and East China will increase dependence on other grain suppliers;the grain surplus of Northwest China will increase slightly.Besides,in terms of grain category,urbanization helps China achieve self-sufficiency in food grain（rice and wheat）,while expands deficit of feed grain（maize）.

Impact of Industrialization on Grain Consumption and Countermeasures

This paper analyzes the impact of industrialization on grain consumption from growth of residents' income and change of diet structure,expansion of size of population,and development of new biomass energy industry.The economic growth in the course of industrialization promotes growth of residents' income,changes residents' diet structure;industrialization leads to rural urbanization and rise of urban residents;industrial development brings about grain demand of biomass energy.All of these greatly increase demand of grain consumption.On the basis of these situations,it presents following countermeasures to guarantee grain consumption demand in the course of industrialization:heighten awareness to fully realize the significance of rapid development of industrialization to grain security;control population growth and improve grain conversion ratio;strengthen grain-saving construction and advocate moderate consumption;develop non-grain biomass energy in many channels to guarantee grain security.

Technical methods of national security supervision:Grain storage security as an example

Grain security guarantees national security.China has many widely distributed grain depots to supervise grain storage security.However,this has led to a lack of regulatory capacity and manpower.Amid the development of reserve-level information technology,big data supervision of grain storage security should be improved.This study proposes big data research architecture and an analysis model for grain storage security;as an example,it illustrates the supervision of the grain loss problem in storage security.The statistical analysis model and the prediction and clustering-based model for grain loss supervision were used to mine abnormal data.A combination of feature extraction and feature selection reduction methods were chosen for dimensionality.A comparative analysis showed that the nonlinear prediction model performed better on the grain loss data set,with R2 of 87.21%,87.83%,91.97%,and 89.40%for Gradient Boosting Regressor(GBR),Random Forest,Decision Tree,XGBoost regression on test sets,respectively.Nineteen abnormal data were filtered out by GBR combined with residuals as an example.The deep learning model had the best performance on the mean absolute error,with an R2 of 85.14%on the test set and only one abnormal data identified.This is contrary to the original intention of finding as many anomalies as possible for supervisory purposes.Five classes were generated using principal component analysis dimensionality reduction combined with Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise(DBSCAN)clustering,with 11 anomalous data points screened by adding the amount of normalized grain loss.Based on the existing grain information system,this paper provides a supervision model for grain storage that can help mine abnormal data.Unlike the current post-event supervision model,this study proposes a pre-event supervision model.This study provides a framework of ideas for subsequent scholarly research;the addition of big data technology will help improve efficient supervisory capacity in the field of grain supervision.

Current Situation,Problems and Optimization Countermeasures of Rice and Shrimp Cultivation Industry in Hubei Province

In recent years,the scale of rice and shrimp cultivation in Hubei Province is expanding year by year,and cultivation model is innovating continuously,while consumption market is enlarging constantly.It realizes"dual use of one land,win-win of grain and fishery,stable grain production,and efficiency increase",and effectively solves the problems that"benefit of grain planting is low,and it is difficult to increase farmers'income".But there are still many problems at present,such as degeneration of crayfish germplasm,increase of disease incidence,centralized entering in the market affecting breeding efficiency,the benefits of rice not brought into full play,large number of business entities,lack of leading enterprises and sufficient supporting.To realize sustainable development of rice and shrimp cultivation industry,Hubei Province should adhere to the problem orientation,do a good job in supporting and capital guidance,increase effective supply,promote scale operation,cultivate leading enterprises,strengthen production management,and improve product quality.

补齐大豆生产短板 打造全面粮食安全

基于我国目前大豆供求面临的严峻形势,分析了大豆安全对保障粮食安全的重要作用,提出了振兴大豆生产、补齐粮安短板,进而打造新时期全面粮食安全的具体措施。

Study on the "Going out" Strategy in Reform of the Supply Front for Agriculture

The three rural issues have been always valued by all circles. At present,the main conflict of agriculture in China has been changed from insufficient total amount to structural conflict. Thus,deeply promoting the reform of agricultural supply front has become a primary work in rural areas. It is required to follow the national grain security strategy based on domestic supply and moderate imports,to ensure production capacity. Besides,China should make full use of domestic and foreign markets and resources to protect the domestic agricultural consumption demand,which is favorable for resolving the current structural conflict and also favorable for sustainable agricultural development.

Is the Farmland of China Sufficient?——Analysis Based on the Second National Land Survey

According to the data of the second national land survey,the farmland area of China at the end of 2009 was 200 million mu more than the original statistical data.This raises widespread concern.Analysis is carried out from the perspective of task,technique,necessities and effect on China's grain security of the second national land survey.Through analysis,it can be deemed that data of the second national land survey are reliable.It overcomes defects of traditional survey projects and will be of profound significance for grasping current situations of farmland resources in China.Farmers are grain production entities,while the grain yield survey of farmers is calculated through sampling survey of per unit area yield and the sown area.Therefore,the increase in farmland area may indicate underestimation of the grain yield,and the grain security risk of China will decline accordingly.

Prediction and determination of mildew grade in grain storage based on FOA-SVM algorithm

Grain mildew is a significant hazard that causes food loss and poses a serious threat to human health when severe.Therefore,effective prediction and determination of mildew grade is essential for the prevention and control of mildew and global food security.In the present study,a model for predicting and determining the mildew grade of rice was constructed using logistic regression,back propagation neural network and GS-SVM(a grid search-based support vector machine algorithm)based on laboratory culture data and actual data from a granary,respectively.The results show that the GS-SVM model has a better prediction effect,but the model cannot automatically adjust the parameters and is more subjective,and the accuracy may decrease when the data set changes.Therefore,this paper establishes a new model for a support vector machine based on a fruit fly optimization algorithm(FOA-SVM),which can achieve automatic parameter search and automatically adjust its parameters to find the best result when the data set changes,with a strong ability of self-adjustment of parameters.In addition,the FOA-SVM converges quickly and the model is stable.The results of this study provide a technical method for early identification of mildew grade during grain storage,which is beneficial for the prevention and control of rice mildew during grain storage.

Spatiotemporal variation in water footprint of grain production in China

Water shortage has become a significant constraint to grain production in China.A more holistic approach is needed to understand the links between grain production and water consumption.Water footprint provides a framework to assess water utilization in agriculture production.This paper analyzes the spatiotemporal variation in water footprint of grain production(WFGP)in China from 1951 to 2010.The results show that,jointly motivated by the improvement of agricultural production and water use efficiency,WFGP in all areas showed a decreasing trend.National average WFGP has decreased from 3.38 to 1.31 m^(3)·kg^(–1).Due to regional differences in agricultural production and water use efficiency,spatial distribution of WFGP varies significantly and its pattern has changed through time.Moreover,WFGP may show significant differences within areas of similar climatic conditions and agricultural practices,indicating that there is a strong need to improve the management of water use technology.Statistical analysis revealed that regional differences in grain yield are the main cause for variations in spatiotemporal WFGP.However,the scope for further increases in grain yield is limited,and thus,the future goal of reducing WFGP is to decrease the water use per unit area.

Securing Grain

New policies address grain concerns and allow China to remain grain self-sufficient The current drought that has depleted water resources in many parts

Simulation of China’s potential rice yields by coupling land system evolution and climate change

Land systems and climate,which are the key elements of agricultural production and key drivers of crop yields,affect the quality of arable land.However,a quantitative model to reveal the mechanism of how potential grain yields are affected by macro-scale arable land evolution and climate change has not yet been developed.In this study,we constructed a Grey Prediction Model-Future Land Use Simulation(GM-FLUS),which combined land system evolution with climate change data,to simulate changes in China’s land system over the next 40 years.We improved the Global Agro-Ecological Zone(GAEZ)model,estimated China’s potential rice yields and their spatial distribution in the next 40 years under four scenarios(shared socioeconomic pathway SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)of the Sixth International Coupling Model Intercomparison Project,analysed the spatiotemporal variations in the potential rice yields and their drivers,and provided appropriate suggestions for increasing rice yields.The simulation results indicated an increase in China’s potential rice yields during 2020–2060 under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0 scenarios and a decrease under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.Moreover,China’s development strategy of“achieving carbon peaking by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060”was similar to the SSP1-2.6 scenario,under which rice yields were relatively stable.Furthermore,under China’s arable land protection policy,China’s paddy field area will change slightly during 2020–2060,and potential rice yields will be influenced by climate.Under the four climate change scenarios,air temperature increased and was negatively correlated with potential rice yields in main rice-producing regions.Additionally,potential rice yields were positively correlated with precipitation,which increased stably under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0scenarios and decreased under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.These results suggest that the development of heat-resistant rice varieties and the implementation of measures that will mitigate the impacts of future temperature increases on rice yields are important for the conservation of paddy fields.Additionally,improving irrigation and drainage facilities is necessary to irrigate drought-prone paddy fields and drain flooded water.

Reassessing the Lewis Turning Point in China： Evidence from 70,000 Rural Households

There is no convincing evidence to prove that China＇s Lewis turning point （LTP） arrived in 2004-2005, as suggested in some of the existing literature. Employing data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China for 70,000 rural households and following the method proposed by Minami （1968） to identify the Lewis turning point in Japan, the present study reassessed the reaching of the LTP in China and found that China＇s economy reached the LTP around 2010. From a regional perspective, China ＂s eastern region reached the LTP in 2010 and its central and western regions are now approaching the turning point. After arriving at the LTP, China＇s rural economy will face three key tasks.＂ safeguarding grain security, promoting economic restructuring and realizing agricultural modernization. To cope with the shortage of human capital in agriculture production and the challenge of the tight balance between grain supply and demand, the Chinese Government should improve the human capital training system, accelerate agricultural modernization and guarantee national grain security.