Spatial-Temporal Changes in Grain Production, Consumption and Driving Mechanism in China

The spatial-temporal patterns of grain production and consumption have an important influence on the effective national grain supply on condition of tight balance in the total grain amount in China. In this paper, we analyze the spatial-temporal pattems of grain production, consumption and the driving mechanism for their evolution processes in China. The results indicate that both gravity centers of grain production and consumption in China moved toward the northern and eastern regions, almost in the same direction. The coordination of grain production and consumption increased slightly from 1995 to 2007 but decreased from 2000 to 2007. There is a spatial difference between the major districts of output increase and the strong growth potential in grain consumption, which indicates an increasing difficulty in improving the regional coordination of grain production and consumption. The movement of the gravity center of grain production is significantly correlated with regional differences in grain production policy, different economic development models, and spatial disparity of land and water resource use. For grain consumption, the main driving factors include rapid urbanization, the upgrade of food consumption structure, and distribution of food industries.

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000-2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to westem China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China＇s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the add and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that fi.trther studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China＇s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.

Impacts of nighttime post-anthesis warming on rice productivity and grain quality in East China

The impacts of nighttime post-anthesis warming on rice productivity and grain quality in East China were evaluated for two cultivars, II You 128, an indica rice, and Wuyunjing 7, a japonica rice. Warming by 3.0 °C stimulated the nighttime respiration rate and decreased the photosynthesis rate, resulting in significant decreases of 21.2% and 24.9% in aboveground biomass accumulation for II You 128 and Wuyunjing 7, respectively. Warming significantly reduced the rates of seed setting and grain filling, especially of inferior kernels(those lower in panicles), while the filling rate of superior kernels remained almost unchanged. As a result, 1000-grain weight and grain yield were respectively 3.7% and 30.0% lower for II You 128 and 12.8% and 34.3% for Wuyunjing 7 in warmed plots than in the unwarmed control. Nighttime warming also significantly reduced the grain milling and appearance quality of both varieties. More negative effects of warming on inferior than on superior kernels were found. The above results have important implications for rice variety cultivation in East China.

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province, China

Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production is mainly determined by the interaction between danger degree of hazard-induced factors and vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies. This paper treats physical exposure, sensitivity of the response to the impact, and capabilities of disaster prevention and mitigation as a complex system for vulnerability degree of hazard-affected bodies, which included the external shocks and internal stability mechanism. Hazard-induced factors generate external shocks on grain production systems though exposure and sensitivity of hazard-affected body, and the result can be represented as affected area of grain. By quantile regression model, this paper depicts the quantitative relationship between hazard-induced factors of extreme meteorological disaster and the affected area in the tail of the distri- bution. Moreover, the model of production function have also been utilized to expound and prove the quantitative relationship between the affected area and final grain output under the internal stability mechanism of the agricultural natural resources endowment, the input factors of agricultural production, and the capacity of defending disaster. The empirical study of this paper finds that impact effects of drought disaster to grain production system presents the basic law of ＂diminishing marginal loss＂, namely, with the constant improvement of the grade of drought, marginal affected area produced by hazard-induced factors will be diminishing. Scenario simulation of extreme drought impact shows that by every 1% reduction in summer average rainfall, grain production of Jilin Province will fell 0.2549% and cut production of grain 14.69% eventually. In re- sponse to ensure China＇s grain security, the construction of the long-term mechanism of agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation, and the innovation of agricultural risk management tools should be also included in the agricultural policy agenda.

An experimental investigation on the effect of grain size on oil-well sand production

Sand production in oil wells is closely related to the mechanical behavior and petrographical properties of sandstones reservoir. Grain size is one of the main parameters controlling the phenomenon, which is studied in this paper. Large-scale hollow cylindrical synthetic samples with the same rock strength but different grain sizes were tested by an experimental setup in the laboratory. Different external stresses and fluid flow rates were applied to the samples and produced sand was measured continuously. Results show two different trends between sanding stress level and grain size. For the samples with finer grain size （D50〈0.3 mm）, the required confining stress for different sanding levels decreased with an increase in the grain size and for the samples with the coarser grains （D50〉0.3 mm） the required confining stress for different sanding levels dramatically increased with an increase in the grain size. Those two different trends were discussed and explained. The first one was production of individual grains and the second was bigger chunks in the slab form. In samples with large grains, plastic zones around hole were changed to a completely loose zone including interlocked individual grains or cluster of grains. In these samples after breakage of these interlocked zones sand was produced in the form of individual grains and clusters. Contrary to this, for samples with smaller grain size, shear bands were formed around the plastified hole and sand was produced in the form of big chunks or slabs.

Agricultural Production Structure Optimization: A Case Study of Major Grain Producing Areas, China

A large number of mathematical models were developed for supporting agricultural production structure optimization decisions; however, few of them can address various uncertainties existing in many factors （e.g., eco-social benefit maximization, food security, employment stability and ecosystem balance）. In this study, an interval-probabilistic agricultural production structure optimization model （IPAPSOM） is formulated for tackling uncertainty presented as discrete intervals and/or probability distribution. The developed model improves upon the existing probabilistic programming and inexact optimization approaches. The IPAPSOM considers not only food security policy constraints, but also involves rural households’income increase and eco-environmental conversation, which can effectively reflect various interrelations among different aspects in an agricultural production structure optimization system. Moreover, it can also help examine the reliability of satisfying （or risk of violating） system constraints under uncertainty. The model is applied to a real case of long-term agricultural production structure optimization in Dancheng County, which is located in Henan Province of Central China as one of the major grain producing areas. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation are obtained. The results are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system benefit conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify the desired agricultural production structure optimization strategy under uncertainty.

Effects of brewers' spent grain protein hydrolysates on gas production, ruminal fermentation characteristics, microbial protein synthesis and microbial community in an artificial rumen fed a high grain diet

Background: Brewers' spent grain(BSG) typically contains 20% – 29% crude protein(CP) with high concentrations of glutamine, proline and hydrophobic and non-polar amino acid, making it an ideal material for producing valueadded products like bioactive peptides which have antioxidant properties. For this study, protein was extracted from BSG, hydrolyzed with 1% alcalase and flavourzyme, with the generated protein hydrolysates(AlcH and FlaH)showing antioxidant activities. This study evaluated the effects of AlcH and FlaH on gas production, ruminal fermentation characteristics, nutrient disappearance, microbial protein synthesis and microbial community using an artificial rumen system(RUSITEC) fed a high-grain diet.Results: As compared to the control of grain only, supplementation of FlaH decreased(P < 0.01) disappearances of dry matter(DM), organic matter(OM), CP and starch, without affecting fibre disappearances;while AlcH had no effect on nutrient disappearance. Neither AlcH nor FlaH affected gas production or VFA profiles, however they increased(P < 0.01) NH_3-N and decreased(P < 0.01) H_2 production. Supplementation of FlaH decreased(P < 0.01)the percentage of CH_4 in total gas and dissolved-CH_4(dCH_4) in dissolved gas. Addition of monensin reduced(P < 0.01) disappearance of nutrients, improved fermentation efficiency and reduced CH_4 and H_2 emissions.Total microbial nitrogen production was decreased(P < 0.05) but the proportion of feed particle associated(FPA) bacteria was increased with FlaH and monensin supplementation. Numbers of OTUs and Shannon diversity indices of FPA microbial community were unaffected by AlcH and FlaH;whereas both indices were reduced(P < 0.05) by monensin. Taxonomic analysis revealed no effect of AlcH and FlaH on the relative abundance(RA) of bacteria at phylum level, whereas monensin reduced(P < 0.05) the RA of Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes and enhanced Proteobacteria. Supplementation of FlaH enhanced(P < 0.05) the RA of genus Prevotella, reduced Selenomonas, Shuttleworthia, Bifidobacterium and Dialister as compared to control;monensin reduced(P < 0.05) RA of genus Prevotella but enhaced Succinivibrio.Conclusions: The supplementation of FlaH in high-grain diets may potentially protect CP and starch from ruminal degradation, without adversely affecting fibre degradation and VFA profiles. It also showed promising effects on reducing CH_4 production by suppressing H_2 production. Protein enzymatic hydrolysates from BSG using flavourzyme showed potential application to high value-added bio-products.

China’s Potential of Grain Production Due to Changes in Agricultural Land Utilization in Recent Years

The changes in utilization of agricultural land have gradually grown into one of the major factors impacting grain output in China. This study explores the various components of agricultural production in China from the land utilization perspective, involving changes in grain production per unit area, multi-cropping index, and adjustment of agricultural structure. Compared with the record values, different research methodologies are used to analyze the po- tential of above three components. The results indicate that grain production potential of 65.68×109kg was unexploited in 2006, in which 45.8×109kg came from the restructuring in agriculture. So we can infer that the reduction of grain production in China could be primarily attributed to agricultural restructuring in recent years. So the productive poten- tial can be fully restored by increasing agricultural investment, or recovering agricultural structure in favorable condi- tions. So we can say that China’s current condition of food security is good.

Analysis of the Changes in China's Grain Production Costs over the Past Decade

China's grain production cost has risen constantly since 2003. This paper starts from the grain production cost changes of unit area and unit quality,to analyze the reasons for China's grain production cost change in the last decade. It points out that the direct cause of changes in grain production cost is the steady growth of material and services costs,the fastest growth of labor costs and fast growth of land costs. The indirect cause of grain production high cost is the low efficiency in numerous and dispersive farmer production management,obviously insufficient agricultural infrastructure construction,waste phenomenon grain in production process and low contribution rate of agricultural technology.On this basis,it is recommended to reduce China's grain production cost and improve grain production conditions.

Forecast of Grain Production of China during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan Period

According to the latest revised agricultural economic statistical data in China Statistical Yearbook-2010,by selecting and establishing the square root-treated grey model,the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output of China from 2011 to 2015 are conducted.The results show that the grain output of China in 2011 will reach 557.739 million tons,and it will break through 600 million tons at 605.617 million tons in 2015.The persistent and stable grain output will ensure that the national economy develops in normal during the twelfth five-year plan period and remit the world grain crisis efficiently;meanwhile,the problem of exorbitant grain prices should be remitted in some level.

China's Grain Production and Its Requirement for Water Resources Allocation

Agricultural water is directly related with grain production security. This article analyzes how to allocate the water resources in terms of grain production. Firstly,for the whole country,we established the VAR mathematical model with the data of 1983 to 2008 to test the relationships between the total amount of water and the agriculture production and forecast the water consumption in 2020. Then focusing on the major grain producing areas,we examine the main index and the pressure index,from which we find that the amount of agricultural water in major areas fail to satisfy the demand of production,and that unbalanced development exists between different areas with several areas especially serious. At last,we point out that,to ensure the security of agriculture production and the sustainable utilization of water resources,the government should take measures not only to prevent water pollution and reduce water consumption,but also to improve inter-basin water transfer planning.

Changes and Effecting Factors of Grain Production in China

Based on the data from the Cost-benefit Data of Farm Produce and the China Agricultural Yearbook,this paper aims to examine the spatial and temporal change characteristics of total grain production and its affecting factors.The results show that:1) During 1980 to 2007,total grain production increased from 3.20 × 108 t to 5.02 × 108 t in China,with annual increasing rate of 1.68%.From the regional disparities,most of the regions present increasing trend of total grain production except for several regions with higher level of economic development;2) Grain sown area decreased from 1.17 × 108 ha in 1980 to 1.06 × 108 ha in 2007,which has negative effect on total grain production;3) The increase of grain yield per unit area caused by land use intensity changes contributed to the increase of total grain yield greatly.However,as the land use intensity showed that farmers pay more attention to labor-saving input but not yield-increasing input,the less enthusiasm of farmers in grain production may become an important constraint on fu-ture grain production increase in China;4) Based on the results,this paper proposed different land management poli-cies in different regions,for example,the government should protect cultivated land,promote large scale production.As to the less developed regions,the government should pay more attention to agricultural subsidies to promote farm-ers' enthusiasm in grain production.

Research on the Forecast of Grain Production in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015

According to the latest amended agricultural economic statistical data from 1996 to 2009 in Henan Statistical Yearbook-2010,by selecting and establishing the optimized grey model of logarithmic new developed coefficient, we conduct the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output and the relevant main economic indices in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the grain output of Henan Province in 2010 will reach 54.896 9 million tons, and it will break through 60 million tons at 60.17 million tons in 2015. In years ahead, the grain output of Henan Province will develop to a new stage steadily, which guarantees the national grain supply and socio-economic sustainable development forcibly.

Promoting the Empowerment of Science and Technology to Ensure Food Safety Production:A Case Study of Huizhou City

The current situation of grain production in Huizhou City was analyzed firstly,and then the existing problems and challenges of grain safety production were pointed out,such as increases in the pressure to ensure grain safety production and the difficulty of stable development of grain production.Finally,several countermeasures and suggestions for the stable development of grain production were put forward.

Efficiency Evaluation of Effect of Direct Grain Subsidy Policy on Performance of Rice Production

Using the DEA analysis method,on the basis of the national panel data from 2002 to 2014,this paper made a comparative analysis on the rice production performance before and after the implementation of direct grain subsidy policy,and made an empirical analysis on the relationship between the direct grain subsidy policy and the changes in the rice production performance. The results showed that the effect of the direct grain subsidy policy on promoting the rice production performance is declining year by year,largely because drop of scale efficiency. Besides,there are problems of serious redundancy in agricultural subsidy,unreasonable resource allocation,leading to low performance and resource waste of rice production.

Grain production space reconstruction and land system function tradeoffs in China

Grain production space reconstruction referred to the changes in the quantity,quality and pattern of grain produc-tion space caused by functional tradeoffs and conflicts between grain production space,urban-rural development space,and ecological service space.Exploring tradeoffs between land system functions caused by grain produc-tion space reconstruction was particularly important for ensuring food security,promoting the construction of ecological civilization,and achieving sustainable development.Therefore,this study identified four relationships of land system functions during the process of grain production space reconstruction(1980-2018)in China by using Set Pair Analysis.Research results showed that the reconstruction of grain production space was achieved mainly through three pathways:Grain for Green,deforestation and reclamation,and urban expansion.Generally,ecological service had spatial negative correlation with grain production,economic development and population carrying capacity(P<0.01),but grain production,economic development and population carrying capacity were positively correlated with each other(P<0.01).In the process of grain production space reconstruction,eco-logical services and economic development,ecological services and population carrying capacity had all shown inverse synergies;there was a tradeoffbetween grain production and ecological services,a codirectional tradeoffbetween grain production and economic development,but a strong synergy between economic development and population carrying capacity.However,the functions of land systems only appeared as synergies or tradeoffs,and there were no inverse synergies and codirectional tradeoffs in the separate processes of Grain for Green,deforestation and reclamation,and urban expansion.It can be concluded that the relationships between land system functions were relatively simple in a single process,but it became complex and diverse when multiple processes were integrated for system analysis.

Evaluation for Use Efficiency of Agricultural Resources in Grain Production:A Case Study of Changshu,Taihe and Ansai in China

This paper aims to establish an index system for evaluation of agricultural resources use efficiency(ARUE) in grain production and discuss the causes of low efficiency and high consumption of agricultural resources in Changshu of Jiangsu Province,Taihe of Jiangxi Province and Ansai of Shaanxi Province in China by analyzing the data about meteorology,soil,water consumption and grain production. Agro-ecological Zone(AEZ) method was adopted to calculate the potential productivity,and synthetically multivariate equation was used to evaluate the ARUE of study areas. This paper can be concluded as:1) the agricultural resources in grain production can be classified into five categories,i.e.,climatic resources,water resources,land resources,biological resources and assistant resources,and 15 indexes were selected to evaluate their use efficiency in grain production;2) the values of ARUE in grain production are 0.5868,0.6368 and 0.5390 respectively in Changshu,Taihe and Ansai;and 3) Changshu ranks the highest among the three study areas in terms of the use efficiency of climatic resources and biological resources(evaluation values are 0.0277 and 0.1530) ,but Taihe tops the three in terms of the use efficiency of water resources,land resources and assistant resources(evaluation values are 0.0502,0.2945 and 0.1379 respectively) . However,the ARUE remains always low in Ansai for all the resources. The inefficiencies are caused by poor grain revenue in Changshu,deficient agriculture investments in Taihe and unfavorable natural conditions in Ansai.

EMERGY ANALYSIS OF GRAIN PRODUCTION SYSTEM IN JIANGSU AND SHAANXI PROVINCE

Efficiency and sustainability of grain production are now important in China. In this study, the grain production systems of Jiangsu and Shaanxi Provinces were compared, to analyze their efficiency and sustainability in terms of utilization of natural resources, inputs of purchased energy and materials, and outputs. Flows of energy and materials between environment and human society were identified, and the natural and human work involved in generating inputs as materials or energy were valued in terms of equivalent amount of solar energy required for their production using emergy method. The results showed environmental resources were continually playing a less important role in the systems, when inorganic subsidiary emergy inputs increased drastically while organic ones decreased or increased little. Deterioration of input emergy structure affected the systems′ efficiency and sustainability,resulting in emergy investment ratios and environmental loading ratios increasing while yield ratios and sustainability indices decreasing. In general, efficiency and sustainability of grain production in Jiangsu are worse than those in Shaanxi. This analysis also suggested that inorganic subsidiary emergy should be introduced properly, and peasants in Jiangsu should utilize natural conditions wisely while those in Shaanxi pay enough attention to soil and surface water conservation.

STUDIES ON THE POTENTIAL OF GRAIN PRODUCTION IN THE NORTHEAST REGION OF CHINA

Northeast region covers an area of 1.24 million km, making up 12.9% of the total area of China, with a population of 103 million, 9.9% of the total population of China. The grain commodity rate is over 35%. It is one of the very important regions of grain production in China. As population and grain demand unceasingly increase, the potential of grain production, and the commodity grain provided for the nation are the major problems about grain consumption and distribution in the future. And they directly affect the realization of national planning objective of grain production.The analysis of grain production conditions and history indicates that: 1) The increase of total grain output is mainly dependent on the increase of grain yield per unit area, but not the enlargement of grain sown area. 2) The factor to affect grain yield per unit area are materials input, correct policies, yearly climatic variation. 3) By the year 2000 and 2010 the total grain output in this region will be respectively 66.16-66.

GRAIN PRODUCTION AND CLIMATIC VARIATION IN TAIHU LAKE BASIN

Before the end of the Ming Dynasty to the early of the Qing Dynasty, climate was warm, and heat energy was plentiful, so double-cropping of rice in Taihu Lake basin could grow without any protection. Later the global climate entered the Little Ice Age, the double-cropping of rice was extirpated nearly, grain output decreased heavily. After the Little Ice Age, although, the global climate got warm, sometimes, the thermal condition was enough for two crops no three crops one year throughout the period. So both the area and output of of double-cropping of rice was fluctuated with variation of cold/ warm. The condition of heat energy, with the movement of climatic zone, becomes a sensitive factor effecting grain production. Recently, as CO2concentra-tion in atmosphere is increasing, climate is getting warm. With the comprehensive effect of such warming and natural cooling trend, the climate in Taihu Lake basin shows the following trend: warm in winter, cooling in summer, decreasing of annual accumulated