服务业进出口、OFDI和全要素生产率的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

研究服务业贸易、投资与服务业之间的影响关系,对提升我国服务行业国际竞争力、促进其高质量发展具有重要意义。论文使用我国2000—2021年数据,构建VAR模型对服务业进出口、服务业对外直接投资(OFDI)和全要素生产率的动态交互关系进行实证分析。研究结果显示,服务业进出口对服务业对外直接投资具有正相关关系,且长期支持效果明显;服务业进出口对OFDI、全要素生产率提升具有促进作用;在短期内,全要素生产率与OFDI之间存在双向促进作用,从长期来看则存在一定负向影响。基于实证研究结论,文中提出制定政策鼓励服务企业参与国际化竞争、发挥服务业进出口对OFDI的促进效应、提升服务企业自主创新能力等相关对策建议。

Impact of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment on Enterprise Performance

The present study seeks to address two fundamental questions.(1)Does outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)enhance enterprise performance ultimately?(2)How does this effect come about?A new dataset from the years 2011 to 2016 based on the micro-data of 88 Chinese multinational-listed enterprises was used to test research hypotheses with the mediating effect modeling approach.The study results reveal that:(1)the investment intensity has a positive influence,while investment span has a negative influence on enterprise performance;(2)the enhanced innovation capability can considerably increase the enterprise performance,while investment intensity and span both hinder the upgrading of innovation capability;and(3)the innovation capability of an enterprise plays a partial intermediary role among investment span and enterprise performance.However,there is no mediating effect between investment intensity,innovation ability,and enterprise performance.

Impact of China’s outward foreign direct investment on environmental pollution in the home country

In the context of economic globalization and increasingly tight resource and environmental constraints,the environmental effect of open economy has been highly concerned by the academic community.With the implementation of the“Going Global”campaign and the“Belt and Road Initiative”,China’s OFDI has been expanding.What is the impact of the rapid growth of OFDI on the home environment?How can China improve the quality and level of OFDI in order to promote domestic green development under the dual context of constructing a new dual circulation development pattern and advocating green development?These questions deserve further discussion.Most of the existing literature focuses on the empirical interpretation of OFDI’s home country environmental effect by using linear models,while few involve nonlinear models.The literature on the important role of financial development in home country and the threshold effect of OFDI on home country environment is even less common.In view of this,based on the mechanism of argumentation and propositional inference,this paper calculated the environmental pollution index of 30 provinces in China from 2003 to 2017 by using China’s provincial panel data of these years and selecting industrial waste water,industrial waste gas,industrial SO_(2),and industrial soot emissions and industrial solid waste production amount index.Then,this paper empirically studied China's OFDI home environment of financial development threshold effect by constructing financial development as the threshold variables panel threshold model.The results showed that:①China’s OFDI had a significant impact on the environment of the home country,based on the level of financial development of the home country.When China’s financial development level was lower than the first threshold value,China’s OFDI had a significant restraining effect on environmental pollution in the home country.When China’s financial development level crossed the first threshold value but did not exceed the second threshold value,China’s OFDI significantly enhanced its inhibiting effect on environmental pollution in its home country.When China’s financial development level was higher than the second threshold value,the inhibiting effect of China’s OFDI on environmental pollution in the home country was further enhanced.②In the sample period,the financial development level of most provinces in China was not high.Only a few provinces with high financial development level had a strong inhibiting effect on environmental pollution in their home country,and the provinces with a high degree of coupling and coordination between OFDI and financial development tended to have a low level of environmental pollution.Accordingly,this paper proposes to optimize the financial service environment of OFDI,improve the green technology content of OFDI,and strengthen the original innovation and re-innovation ability of green technology.

OFDI与区域碳排放的非线性关系——基于技术创新的门槛效应研究

随着我国外部市场的扩大和经济对外开放政策的推进,对外直接投资(OFDI)呈现出迅猛增长的趋势。然而,由于过去采用粗放式增长模式,生态环境发展不充分,且由于“双碳”目标政策的实施,碳排放已成为对环境产生重大影响的关键因素,并被纳入总排放控制体系。基于此,本文选取中国2005—2019年30个省份(西藏、港澳台地区除外)的面板数据进行分析。结果表明,在不考虑技术创新作为门槛变量的情况下,整体上我国OFDI对本地碳排放具有显著的抑制作用。然而,在引入技术创新作为门槛变量后,处于技术创新水平较高的地区通过加大OFDI带来的逆向技术溢出效应可以降低本地区碳排放水平;中等技术创新水平的地区增大OFDI反而会增加地区碳排放;较低技术创新水平的地区对外直接投资的碳减排效应则不显著,OFDI对区域碳减排效应存在门槛。文章提出建议:技术创新水平较高地区进一步加大对外开放力度,充分发挥OFDI的逆向技术溢出效应;技术创新水平较低地区扩大OFDI规模,优化调整OFDI结构,坚持绿色导向型OFDI,积极引进国外先进技术、管理经验等,缓解全球温室效应等问题。

Foreign Direct Investment with Chinese Characteristics:A Middle Path Between Ownership-Location-Internalization Model and Linkage-Leverage-Learning Model

The majority of multinational enterprises(MNEs) traditionally originate from developed countries.In the last ten years,however,there has been dramatic growth in foreign direct investment(FDI) from China.It is a comparatively new phenomenon that challenges the classic FDI theories.In this paper,we review the pros and cons of two important theories,known as the Ownership-Location-Internalization(OLI) model and Linkage-Leverage-Learning(LLL) model,and use the statistical data and company case studies from China to test the plausibility of these two models.We believe that neither of them suits totally: the OLI model is quite useful for understanding FDI from China to developing economies,while the LLL model is more powerful for explaining the FDI to developed economies.We argue that the companies from China attain a very advantageous position as intermediates in the global economy.They may catch up with the first movers if they integrate OLI-led and LLL-led FDI within one firm.This combination can bring together the most advanced knowledge acquired in developed economies with the knowledge about adaptation needs and the needs for cost reduction in production as expressed in developing economies.It may also accelerate the knowledge transfer globally.We thus fill a gap in research into the geographical pattern of Chinese FDI and offer a deeper understanding of the internationalization of Chinese MNEs and revolving knowledge transfer.

Environmental regulation,hidden economy,and China's outward foreign direct investment

The need to balance economic growth and its environmental impact continues to be a serious issue in China.As environmental regulation in China increases in importance,it is critical to understand how it impacts economic growth drivers such as outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)to formulate effective policies.One consideration should be the hidden economy,which can weaken the effects of environmental regulation on OFDI.This study investigates the scale of the hidden economy in 30 provinces and province-level municipalities in China in the period 2004 to 2015.The study uses the multiple indicators and multiple causes(MIMIC)model and the systematic generalized method of moments(GMM)test to analyze the impact of environmental regulation and the hidden economy on China's OFDI.The results show that stronger environmental regulation promotes OFDI.However,the hidden economy inhibits China's OFDI,as the positive effects of environmental regulation that drive OFDI are distorted.From a regional perspective,stronger environmental regulation promotes OFDI as well,while the hidden economy inhibits it.The interaction between environmental regulation and the hidden economy also inhibits it significantly.

China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

The implementation of China’s open development strategy has unveiled a wave of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)by Chinese companies,with global implications.Based on panel data from 146 developing countries from 2003 to 2017,we investigate the growth effects of China’s OFDI.We find that China’s OFDI has promoted significant economic growth in developing countries.Not only could China’s OFDI increase GDP per capita of a country in a short time but raise the country’s long-run equilibrium value as well.In addition,the growth effects of China’s OFDI were more significant for countries with weak governance,rich resource,and modest human capital,and were above the average level for Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries,African countries,and in the post-crisis era.Our research helps unravel the global significance of Chinese companies investing overseas and contributes to research on the growth effects of direct investment between developing countries.

知识产权保护如何影响OFDI的绿色创新效率

本文基于修改的内生增长模型,阐述了知识产权保护与OFDI逆向技术溢出的非线性关系。首先选取2003—2018年我国30个省份的面板数据,并借助三阶段SBM-DEA方法测算了绿色创新效率;在检验到绿色创新效率的空间自相关性以及知识产权保护的门槛效应后,构建了动态空间面板模型,实证研究了OFDI逆向技术溢出对绿色创新效率影响的门槛效应。回归结果表明,当知识产权保护处在较低水平时,OFDI逆向技术溢出对绿色创新效率的影响为负;只有当知识产权保护水平跨过门槛值后,OFDI逆向技术溢出对绿色创新效率的促进作用才明显。在异质性分析中发现,随着知识产权保护水平的提高,OFDI逆向技术溢出对绿色创新效率影响的单一门槛效应在国别、行业、地区数据分析中也得到验证。

东道国经济政策对中国OFDI的影响研究——基于“一带一路”国家的分析

“一带一路”国家的经济政策对中国OFDI起着至关重要的作用。本文将东道国货币政策和财政政策纳入经济政策分析框架,基于2005—2019年73个“一带一路”国家的面板数据,构建个体固定效应模型和差分GMM模型,从静态角度和动态角度分别研究东道国经济政策对中国OFDI的影响。结果表明,“一带一路”国家实施扩张性货币政策和扩张性财政政策可以显著扩大中国OFDI规模,且上期OFDI规模会对当期OFDI规模产生累积效应。本文研究对推进中国与“一带一路”国家的共同发展、完善中国对外直接投资政策具有积极的意义。

东道国制度质量与中国OFDI的出口贸易效应

采用国际贸易引力模型研究了东道国制度质量和中国对外直接投资对中国出口贸易的影响,并用两阶段最小二乘法与面板误差修正模型进行实证研究。结果表明,中国对外直接投资、东道国政治制度质量与经济制度质量对中国对外出口贸易都有正向影响;东道国制度质量对中国对外直接投资的出口促进效应呈负向调节作用。

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI贸易效应研究

随着“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的直接投资与贸易规模持续增加。为探究中国对沿线国家直接投资与贸易之间的内在联系,运用扩展的贸易引力模型,利用60个沿线国家在2003-2018年间的面板数据进行实证分析。基准回归结果表明,中国对“一带一路”沿线国家对外直接投资与贸易呈正向关系,稳健性检验强化了这一结论;机制检验显示,东道国经济发展水平抑制了中国OFDI的贸易促进效应,而东道国自然资源禀赋与对外开放水平显著提升了中国OFDI的正向贸易效应。

基于区域创新能力视角的市场整合与中国OFDI分析

本文基于2006—2021年省级面板数据,实证检验了市场整合通过创新驱动机制影响OFDI的作用效果。研究发现,在考察期内,市场整合能够明显促进区域创新水平提升并促进OFDI发展,其效果具有地区和时间差异,对区域创新水平的促进作用在中部地区最为显著,在东西部地区作用效果不明显。通过将所考察时期进行分段回归后发现,市场整合在所考察时间段前后两期对创新水平促进作用明显,中期则不显著。本文的研究结论能够为理解市场整合与OFDI的关系提供一定的帮助,对中国在新常态下克服国际贸易阻力和经济增长瓶颈,发展更高质量的OFDI具有参考价值。

中国OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的影响因素研究——基于国别面板数据的非线性门槛技术回归

本文首先对对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的机理进行了分析,然后以2003—2013年中国对外直接投资的13个主要发达国家的数据为样本,考察了中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的影响因素。本文的实证结果发现,中国与东道国之间的技术差距、东道国研发(R&D)支出、全要素生产率、人力资本、技术创新能力、制度环境是对外直接投资逆向技术溢出效应的正相关因素。同时,本文以技术差距作为门槛变量进行门槛效应检验,结果表明,技术差距存在单一门槛值,当中国与东道国之间技术差距较大时,技术差距对逆向技术溢出产生了正向影响;当技术差距缩小后,正相关关系仍然存在,但影响程度有所下降。

开放经济下OFDI对产业结构升级效应及传导路径

开放经济下对外直接投资(OFDI)已成为我国融入世界经济的主要途径,在优化产业结构、推进经济转型等方面扮演着重要角色。根据OFDI与产业结构升级及传导路径的互动机理分析,在对安徽省OFDI投资概况和产业结构现状进行分析的基础上,选取2003—2017年相关数据为样本构建VAR模型,运用ADF检验、脉冲响应函数等方法从产业结构总水平角度,实证分析得出短期内安徽省OFDI所能带来的产业结构升级效应并不显著的结论。进而从具体传导路径角度,采用主成分分析法,从10个变量中提取主成分构建VAR模型,运用脉冲响应等方法实证分析得出安徽省OFDI可通过贸易、省内投资、就业和技术路径来促进产业结构升级。为此,安徽省应扩大OFDI规模,提升OFDI质量和效益;增强企业竞争实力和科技创新能力,优化对外投资结构;发挥政府宏观调控和政策引导作用,加大对企业的扶持力度。

OFDI促进了中国的出口吗?——基于动态面板模型的系统GMM检验

基于2003—2013年中国对外直接投资的国别数据,选取41个样本国家和地区的双边数据,建立扩展的贸易引力模型,采用动态面板模型系统GMM估计,对中国对外直接投资与出口的关系进行了检验。研究结果表明,整体而言,中国的对外直接投资对出口存在显著的替代效应;分组来看,无论是对发达国家还是发展中国家替代效应仍然存在,且发展中国家组更为显著;进一步以2008年分时间段进行检验发现,在2008年以前对外直接投资对出口没有显著的影响,但2008年以后表现出显著的替代效应。

文化差异对中国企业OFDI区位选择的影响:东道国华人网络的调节效应

现有文化差异对中国企业对外直接投资(OFDI)区位选择影响研究较少考虑东道国情境因素的调节效应,结论也不一致。通过整合制度理论与资源基础观,研究东道国华人网络对文化差异与中国企业OFDI区位选择之间关系的调节效应。基于企业层面OFDI项目数据,采用面板负二项回归方法的实证研究发现,东道国与中国的文化差异对中国企业OFDI有显著的负向影响,但东道国华人网络削弱了文化差异的负向影响。在采用零膨胀负二项回归方法进行稳健性检验后,上述结论仍成立。根据实证研究结果对已有研究结论分歧进行了解释,提出了中国企业利用华人网络"走出去"、"走进去"以及更好地"走下去"的政策建议。

我国OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的研究——基于省际面板数据的门槛回归分析

利用2003—2013年我国29个省级行政区的省际面板数据实证分析我国对外直接投资(OFDI)的逆向技术溢出效应,结果显示,我国OFDI存在逆向技术溢出效应,且这种效应存在显著的地区差异性。门槛模型的回归结果表明,我国OFDI的逆向技术溢出效应不受经济自由度的影响,但受创新能力和金融发展水平的制约,创新能力和金融发展水平均存在门槛效应,当其跨越门槛值时,OFDI的逆向技术溢出效应显著增加。

中国对RCEP框架内13国OFDI效率评价研究及影响因素分析

本文采用随机前沿引力模型,在RCEP框架内实证分析了2014~2019年中国对13个国家OFDI前沿水平和效率损失的影响因素,在此基础上,对实测的OFDI效率进行了多维度评价和分析。结果表明:(1)中国与东道国的总体经济规模及经济发展水平都对OFDI前沿水平有正向影响,而东道国技术研发水平会阻碍OFDI前沿水平的提高;(2)东道国产权保护度、法治水平、政府诚信度、商业自由度和投资自由度与OFDI效率正相关,东道国贸易开放度、宏观经济稳定度和劳动力市场效率与OFDI效率负相关,而东道国金融自由度的积极效用并不显著;(3)观测期内中国对13国投资效率总体偏低但有所改善,投资潜力仍亟待释放,对外投资总体回归理性且战略资产寻求型投资的比重增加。最后分别从宏观和微观角度提出有针对性的对策建议。

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家OFDI逆向技术溢出的影响因素研究

基于2003—2014年"一带一路"沿线国家的跨国面板数据,运用随机前沿引力模型,研究了中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出的影响因素。研究表明,签订双边自贸协定对中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出存在显著的正向效用,"一带一路"沿线东道国的技术创新水平对中国对外直接投资逆向技术溢出具有显著的正面影响,而东道国与中国之间的文化差异和经济距离在一定程度上阻碍了中国对外直接投资的逆向技术溢出。而对不同国家的分析表明,2003—2014年,中国通过"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI获得的国外研发溢出效率排名前5位的国家分别为新加坡、巴基斯坦、越南、匈牙利和斯里兰卡。技术无效率函数的估计结果发现,东道国法律与腐败监管的严厉程度、东道国经济自由度在降低中国对"一带一路"沿线国家OFDI逆向技术溢出无效程度中发挥着重要的作用。因此,"走出去"的中国企业必须高度重视东道国当地的文化环境,同时应加快向东南亚、南亚及中亚转移劳动密集型产业。最后,应制定政策鼓励国内研发实力强的企业对科技资源密集型的发达国家和地区进行对外直接投资。