Toward a Learnable Climate Model in the Artificial Intelligence Era

Artificial intelligence(AI)models have significantly impacted various areas of the atmospheric sciences,reshaping our approach to climate-related challenges.Amid this AI-driven transformation,the foundational role of physics in climate science has occasionally been overlooked.Our perspective suggests that the future of climate modeling involves a synergistic partnership between AI and physics,rather than an“either/or”scenario.Scrutinizing controversies around current physical inconsistencies in large AI models,we stress the critical need for detailed dynamic diagnostics and physical constraints.Furthermore,we provide illustrative examples to guide future assessments and constraints for AI models.Regarding AI integration with numerical models,we argue that offline AI parameterization schemes may fall short of achieving global optimality,emphasizing the importance of constructing online schemes.Additionally,we highlight the significance of fostering a community culture and propose the OCR(Open,Comparable,Reproducible)principles.Through a better community culture and a deep integration of physics and AI,we contend that developing a learnable climate model,balancing AI and physics,is an achievable goal.

New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities.In 2023,the sea surface temperature(SST)and upper 2000 m ocean heat content(OHC)reached record highs.The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15±10 ZJ(1 Zetta Joules=1021 Joules)(updated IAP/CAS data);9±5 ZJ(NCEI/NOAA data).The Tropical Atlantic Ocean,the Mediterranean Sea,and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s.Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño,the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of~0.23℃ higher than 2022 and an astounding>0.3℃ above 2022 values for the second half of 2023.The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

Future changes in precipitation and water availability over the Tibetan Plateau projected by CMIP6 models constrained by climate sensitivity

Precipitation projections over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)show diversity among existing studies,partly due to model uncertainty.How to develop a reliable projection remains inconclusive.Here,based on the IPCC AR6–assessed likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity(ECS)and the climatological precipitation performance,the authors constrain the CMIP6(phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project)model projection of summer precipitation and water availability over the TP.The best estimates of precipitation changes are 0.24,0.25,and 0.45 mm d^(−1)(5.9%,6.1%,and 11.2%)under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios of SSP1–2.6,SSP2–4.5,and SSP5–8.5 from 2050–2099 relative to 1965–2014,respectively.The corresponding constrained projections of water availability measured by precipitation minus evaporation(P–E)are 0.10,0.09,and 0.22 mm d^(−1)(5.7%,4.9%,and 13.2%),respectively.The increase of precipitation and P–E projected by the high-ECS models,whose ECS values are higher than the upper limit of the likely range,are about 1.7 times larger than those estimated by constrained projections.Spatially,there is a larger increase in precipitation and P–E over the eastern TP,while the western part shows a relatively weak difference in precipitation and a drier trend in P–E.The wetter TP projected by the high-ECS models resulted from both an approximately 1.2–1.4 times stronger hydrological sensitivity and additional warming of 0.6℃–1.2℃ under all three scenarios during 2050–2099.This study emphasizes that selecting climate models with climate sensitivity within the likely range is crucial to reducing the uncertainty in the projection of TP precipitation and water availability changes.

Climate-growth relationships of Pinus tabuliformis along an altitudinal gradient on Baiyunshan Mountain,Central China

A set of standard chronologies for tree-ring width(TRW),earlywood width(EWW)and latewood width(LWW)in Pinus tabuliformis Carr.along an altitudi-nal gradient(1450,1400,and 1350 m a.s.l.)on Baiyunshan Mountain,Central China to analyze the effect of varying temperature and precipitation on growth along the gradi-ent.Correlation analyses showed that at all three altitudes and the TRW and EWW chronologies generally had signifi-cant negative correlations with mean and maximum tem-peratures in the current April and May and with minimum temperatures in the prior July and August,but significant positive correlations with precipitation in the current May.Correlations were generally significantly negative between LWW chronologies and all temperatures in the prior July and August,indicating that the prior summer temperature had a strong lag effect on the growth of P.tabuliformis that increased with altitude.The correlation with the standard-ized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)confirmed that wet conditions in the current May promoted growth of TR and EW at all altitudes.Significant altitudinal differences were also found;at 1400 m,there were significant positive correlations between EWW chronologies and SPEI in the current April and significant negative correlations between LWW chronologies and SPEI in the current September,but these correlations were not significant at 1450 m.At 1350 m,there were also significant negative correlations between the TRW and the EWW chronologies and SPEI in the prior October and the current July and between LWW chronology and SPEI in the current August,but these cor-relations were not significant at 1400 m.Moving correlation results showed a stable response of EWW in relation to the SPEI in the current May at all three altitudes and of LWW to maximum temperature in the prior July-August at 1400 m from 2002 to 2018.The EWW chronology at 1400 m and the LWW chronology at 1450 m were identified as more suitable for climate reconstruction.These results provide a strong scientific basis for forest management decisions and climate reconstructions in Central China.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

A progress review of black carbon deposition on Arctic snow and ice and its impact on climate change

The rapid warming of the Arctic,accompanied by glacier and sea ice melt,has significant consequences for the Earth’s climate,ecosystems,and economy.Black carbon(BC)deposition on snow and ice can trigger a significant reduction in snow albedo and accelerate melting of snow and ice in the Arctic.By reviewing the published literatures over the past decades,this work provides an overview of the progress in both the measurement and modeling of BC deposition and its impact on Arctic climate change.In summary,the maximum value of BC deposition appears in the western Russian Arctic(26 ng·g^(–1)),and the minimum value appears in Greenland(3 ng·g^(–1)).BC records in the Arctic ice core already peaked in 1920s and 1970s,and shows a regional difference between Greenland and Canadian Arctic.The different temporal variations of Arctic BC ice core records in different regions are closely related to the large variability of BC emissions and transportation processes across the Arctic region.Model simulations usually underestimate the concentration of BC in snow and ice by 2–3 times,and cannot accurately reflect the seasonal and regional changes in BC deposition.Wet deposition is the main removal mechanism of BC in the Arctic,and observations show different seasonal variations in BC wet deposition in Ny-Ålesund and Barrow.This discrepancy may result from varying contributions of anthropogenic and biomass burning(BB)emissions,given the strong influence by BC from BB emissions at Barrow.Arctic BC deposition significantly influences regional climate change in the Arctic,increasing fire activities in the Arctic have made BB source of Arctic BC more crucial.On average,BC in Arctic snow and ice causes an increase of+0.17 W·m^(–2)in radiative forcing and 8 Gt·a^(–1)in runoff in Greenland.As stressed in the latest Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme report,reliable source information and long-term and high-resolution observations on Arctic BC deposition will be crucial for a more comprehensive understanding and a better mitigation strategy of Arctic BC.In the future,it is necessary to collect more observations on BC deposition and the corresponding physical processes(e.g.,snow/ice melting,surface energy balance)in the Arctic to provide reliable data for understanding and clarifying the mechanism of the climatic impacts of BC deposition on Arctic snow and ice.

A study on the simulation of carbon and water fluxes of Dangxiong alpine meadow and its response to climate change

The alpine meadow ecosystem accounts for 27%of the total area of the Tibetan Plateau and is also one of the most important vegetation types.The Dangxiong alpine meadow ecosystem,located in the south-central part of the Tibetan Plateau,is a typical example.To understand the carbon and water fluxes,water use efficiency(WUE),and their responses to future climate change for the alpine meadow ecosystem in the Dangxiong area,two parameter estimation methods,the Model-independent Parameter Estimation(PEST)and the Dynamic Dimensions Search(DDS),were used to optimize the Biome-BGC model.Then,the gross primary productivity(GPP)and evapotranspiration(ET)were simulated.The results show that the DDS parameter calibration method has a better performance.The annual GPP and ET show an increasing trend,while the WUE shows a decreasing trend.Meanwhile,ET and GPP reach their peaks in July and August,respectively,and WUE shows a“dual-peak”pattern,reaching peaks in May and November.Furthermore,according to the simulation results for the next nearly 100 years,the ensemble average GPP and ET exhibit a significant increasing trend,and the growth rate under the SSP5–8.5 scenario is greater than that under the SSP2–4.5 scenario.WUE shows an increasing trend under the SSP2–4.5 scenario and a significant increasing trend under the SSP5–8.5 scenario.This study has important scientific significance for carbon and water cycle prediction and vegetation ecological protection on the Tibetan Plateau.

Prevalence of vegetation browning in China’s drylands under climate change

Vegetation greening has long been acknowledged,but recent studies have pointed out that vegetation greening is possibly stalled or even reversed.However,detailed analyses about greening reversal or increased browning of vegetation remain scarce.In this study,we utilized the normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI)as an indicator of vegetation to investigate the trends of vegetation greening and browning(monotonic,interruption,and reversal)through the breaks for the additive season and trend(BFAST)method across China’s drylands from 1982 to 2022.It also reveals the impacts of ecological restoration programs(ERPs)and climate change on these vegetation trends.We find that the vegetation displays an obvious pattern of east-greening and west-browning in China’s drylands.Greening trends mainly exhibits monotonic greening(29.8%)and greening with setback(36.8%),whereas browning shows a greening to browning reversal(19.2%).The increase rate of greening to browning reversal is 0.0342/yr,which is apparently greater than that of greening with setback,0.0078/yr.This research highlights that,under the background of widespread vegetation greening,vegetation browning is pro-gressively increasing due to the effects of climate change.Furthermore,the ERPs have significantly increased vegetation coverage,with the increase rate in 2000-2022 being twice as much as that of 1982-1999 in reveg-etation regions.Vegetation browning in southwestern Qingzang Plateau is primarily driven by adverse climatic factors and anthropogenic disturbances,which offset the efforts of ERPs.

Spatiotemporal changes of gross primary productivity and its response to drought in the Mongolian Plateau under climate change

Gross primary productivity(GPP)of vegetation is an important constituent of the terrestrial carbon sinks and is significantly influenced by drought.Understanding the impact of droughts on different types of vegetation GPP provides insight into the spatiotemporal variation of terrestrial carbon sinks,aiding efforts to mitigate the detrimental effects of climate change.In this study,we utilized the precipitation and temperature data from the Climatic Research Unit,the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI),the standardized precipitation index(SPI),and the simulated vegetation GPP using the eddy covariance-light use efficiency(EC-LUE)model to analyze the spatiotemporal change of GPP and its response to different drought indices in the Mongolian Plateau during 1982-2018.The main findings indicated that vegetation GPP decreased in 50.53% of the plateau,mainly in its northern and northeastern parts,while it increased in the remaining 49.47%area.Specifically,meadow steppe(78.92%)and deciduous forest(79.46%)witnessed a significant decrease in vegetation GPP,while alpine steppe(75.08%),cropland(76.27%),and sandy vegetation(87.88%)recovered well.Warming aridification areas accounted for 71.39% of the affected areas,while 28.53% of the areas underwent severe aridification,mainly located in the south and central regions.Notably,the warming aridification areas of desert steppe(92.68%)and sandy vegetation(90.24%)were significant.Climate warming was found to amplify the sensitivity of coniferous forest,deciduous forest,meadow steppe,and alpine steppe GPP to drought.Additionally,the drought sensitivity of vegetation GPP in the Mongolian Plateau gradually decreased as altitude increased.The cumulative effect of drought on vegetation GPP persisted for 3.00-8.00 months.The findings of this study will improve the understanding of how drought influences vegetation in arid and semi-arid areas.

Analysing the Potential Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Upper Benue River Basin (North Cameroon)

In this study, we analyse the climate variability in the Upper Benue basin and assess its potential impact on the hydrology regime under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The hydrological regime of the basin is more vulnerable to climate variability, especially precipitation and temperature. Observed hydroclimatic data (1950-2015) was analysed using a statistical approach. The potential impact of future climate change on the hydrological regime is quantified using the GR2M model and two climate models: HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5 from CMIP5 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The main result shows that precipitation varies significantly according to the geographical location and time in the Upper Benue basin. The trend analysis of climatic parameters shows a decrease in annual average precipitation across the study area at a rate of -0.568 mm/year which represents about 37 mm/year over the time 1950-2015 compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. An increase of 0.7°C in mean temperature and 14% of PET are also observed according to the same reference period. The two climate models predict a warming of the basin of about 2°C for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios and an increase in precipitation between 1% and 10% between 2015 and 2100. Similarly, the average annual flow is projected to increase by about +2% to +10% in the future for both RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios between 2015 and 2100. Therefore, it is primordial to develop adaptation and mitigation measures to manage efficiently the availability of water resources.

Responses of Annual Variability of Vegetation NPP to Climate Variables Using Satellite Techniques in Gadarif State, Sudan

Plants play an essential role in matter and energy transformations and are key messengers in the carbon and energy cycle. Net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the capability of plants to transform solar energy into photosynthesis. It is very sensible for factors affecting on vegetation variability such as climate, soils, plant characteristics and human activities. So, it can be used as an indicator of actual and potential trend of vegetation. In this study we used the actual NPP which was derived from MODIS to assess the response of NPP to climate variables in Gadarif State, from 2000 to 2010. The correlations between NPP and climate variables (temperature and precipitation) are calculated using Pearson’s Correlation Coefficient and ordinary least squares regression. The main results show the following 1) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and mean annual temperature is Somewhat negative for Feshaga, Rahd, Gadarif and Galabat areas and weakly negative in Faw area;2) the correlation Coefficient between NPP and annual total precipitation is weakly negative in Faw, Rahd and Galabat areas and somewhat negative in Galabat and Rahd areas. This study demonstrated that the correlation analysis between NPP and climate variables (precipitation and temperature) gives reliably result of NPP responses to climate variables that is clearly in a very large scale of study area.

Discovery of the Significant Impacts of Swell Propagation on Global Wave Climate Change

This study compared the differences in the wave climate in the South China Sea and North Indian Ocean under these two datasets:ERA-40 wave reanalysis and Mei’s hindcast wave data.In the numerical calculation of regional ocean waves,the wave climate characteristics exhibited significant bias if the influence of external swells(swells from afar)was not fully considered,which may provide an incorrect basis for global climate change analysis.1)The trends of the significant wave height(SWH)obtained from the two datasets showed significant differences,such as those of the Bay of Bengal and the Java Sea in June-July-August.For the past 45 years,SWH from ERA-40(SWH-ERA)exhibited a significant annual increase in low-latitude waters of the North Indian Ocean(0.2-0.6 cm yr^(-1))and South China Sea(0.2-0.8 cm yr^(-1)).2)In the Bay of Bengal,the SWH-ERA in each month was generally 0.5 m higher than the SWH from Mei’s hindcast wave data(SWH-Mei)and can reach 1.0 m higher in some months.3)In the Bay of Bengal,SWH-ERA and SWH-Mei increased significantly at annual rates of 0.13 and 0.27 cm yr^(-1),respectively.This increasing trend was mainly reflected after 1978.SWH-ERA showed a trough in 1975(1.33 m)and a crest in 1992(1.83 m),which were not reflected in SWH-Mei.

Differential response of radial growth and δ^(13)C in Qinghai spruce(Picea crassifolia) to climate change on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains in Northwest China

Tree radial growth can have significantly differ-ent responses to climate change depending on the environ-ment.To elucidate the effects of climate on radial growth and stable carbon isotope(δ^(13)C)fractionation of Qing-hai spruce(Picea crassifolia),a widely distributed native conifer in northwestern China in different environments,we developed chronologies for tree-ring widths and δ^(13)C in trees on the southern and northern slopes of the Qilian Mountains,and analysed the relationship between these tree-ring variables and major climatic factors.Tree-ring widths were strongly influenced by climatic factors early in the growing season,and the radial growth in trees on the northern slopes was more sensitive to climate than in trees on the southern.Tree-ring δ^(13)C was more sensitive to climate than radial growth.δ^(13)C fractionation was mainly influenced by summer temperature and precipitation early in the growing season.Stomatal conductance more strongly limited stable carbon isotope fractionation in tree rings than photosynthetic rate did.The response between tree rings and climate in mountains gradually weakened as climate warmed.Changes in radial growth and stable carbon isotope fractionation of P.crassifolia in response to climate in the Qilian Mountains may be further complicated by continued climate change.

Regional Climate Models in the Simulation of the Drought of the 1970’s and 1980’s Years in Senegal (In West Africa)

West Africa was hit by an unprecedented drought in the 1970’s and 1980’s years, with dramatic consequences for surface and groundwater resources. In the context of climate change, there are many studies for the prediction of the increase in the occurrence of these droughts. To predict this situation in the Senegalese region, it is necessary to use regional climate models, which carrying out the study. This work deals with the interest to examine the capacity of the RCMs (regional climate models) in order to reproduce the deficit on the 1970’s year rainfall in Senegal. In this work, we used daily precipitation data from five (5) regional climate models to characterize the droughts in Senegal by using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) on different time scales (3, 6, 12 and 24 months). For this purpose, the index was calculated over two distinct periods: 1951-1969 and 1970-1990. The results show that the period 1970-1990 was drier than the period 1951-1969. For the zonal average, the results show that the North of Senegal was more affected by this deficit rainfall than the South part. The analysis of the interannual variability of rainfall for some stations in Senegal shows that the drought did not start at the same time throughout the zone.

Climate Changes and Sustainability

Climate change is the phrase used to describe long-term changes in temperatures and weather patterns. Changes in the atmosphere and their interactions with diverse geologic, chemical, biological, and geographic variables are the main contributors to this cyclical adjustment of the Earth’s climate. Such changes may be induced purposefully, because of burning fossil fuels, clearing forests, and raising animals, or they may be natural, brought on by significant volcanic eruptions or variations in the sun’s activity. By significantly increasing the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere, this heightens the greenhouse effect and contributes to global warming. This work includes several additional theoretical and practical explanations of sustainable development. The theoretical work encompasses hundreds of researches that identify requirements for how development routes might satisfy sustainable development (SD) criteria using economic theory, complex systems approach, ecological science, and other techniques. The agreements made by the Parties in various nations across the world will consider a wide range of perspectives about what would be considered undesirable effects on the environment, the climate system, sustainability, economic growth, or food production.

Effect of Climate Change on Lung Cancer

This research paper aims to draw a relationship between lung cancer and climate change. With the rise of climate change in the last few decades, many organizations and people are concerned about the future of the world. Climate change has many side effects, such as air pollution, which can increase the incidence and death rates of lung and bronchus cancer. This paper aims to draw the relationship between climate change factors and lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. The main finding of this analysis was that there is a positive relationship between lung cancer incidence, death rates, and climate change indicators. The findings from this study have the potential to inform targeted public health interventions and policies, emphasizing the need for proactive strategies in mitigating the health impacts of a changing climate. Section 2 of this paper is a literature review and focuses on the findings of other scholars in this field. Section 3 of this paper is Methods and Processes and will highlight the steps used to create the program and get the results. Section 4 of this paper is Results and Analysis, and will go over the results produced by the machine learning algorithm, and will present graphs and visualizations regarding the relationship of the dependent and independent variables. The final section, Section 5, is Limitations and Conclusion, in which we will discuss possible limitations to both my dataset and my model, and will conclude the paper by presenting a big-picture view of these problems in our society.

Review of Empirical Studies on Climate Risk—Effects and Activism

This review focuses on major contemporary empirical studies that examine both the physical and regulatory sides of climate risk. These studies explore how climate risk affects firms’ operating performance and leverage, stock and bond valuation, cost of capital, and managerial behavior. We also discuss how the effect of climate risk on real estate markets depends on individuals’ beliefs about climate change. Furthermore, we summarize papers on climate risk activism and how firms can employ financial devices and technology to mitigate their climate risk. Finally, we make some recommendations for further research areas.

Machine learning ensemble model prediction of northward shift in potato cyst nematodes(Globodera rostochiensis and G.pallida)distribution under climate change conditions

Potato cyst nematodes(PCNs)are a significant threat to potato production,having caused substantial damage in many countries.Predicting the future distribution of PCN species is crucial to implementing effective biosecurity strategies,especially given the impact of climate change on pest species invasion and distribution.Machine learning(ML),specifically ensemble models,has emerged as a powerful tool in predicting species distributions due to its ability to learn and make predictions based on complex data sets.Thus,this research utilised advanced machine learning techniques to predict the distribution of PCN species under climate change conditions,providing the initial element for invasion risk assessment.We first used Global Climate Models to generate homogeneous climate predictors to mitigate the variation among predictors.Then,five machine learning models were employed to build two groups of ensembles,single-algorithm ensembles(ESA)and multi-algorithm ensembles(EMA),and compared their performances.In this research,the EMA did not always perform better than the ESA,and the ESA of Artificial Neural Network gave the highest performance while being cost-effective.Prediction results indicated that the distribution range of PCNs would shift northward with a decrease in tropical zones and an increase in northern latitudes.However,the total area of suitable regions will not change significantly,occupying 16-20%of the total land surface(18%under current conditions).This research alerts policymakers and practitioners to the risk of PCNs’incursion into new regions.Additionally,this ML process offers the capability to track changes in the distribution of various species and provides scientifically grounded evidence for formulating long-term biosecurity plans for their control.

Preface to the Special Topic on Ocean, Sea Ice and Northern Hemisphere Climate:In Remembrance of Professor Yongqi GAO's Key Contributions

This special issue commemorates the life work of Prof. Yongqi GAO who passed away in July 2021, his time cut short by illness. He had many great achievements, but still much more to contribute. The seven articles in this special issue are from research areas where he contributed, and they illustrate how his close colleagues are continuing his work.

Designated critical habitats for U.S.imperiled species are not protected from climate and land-use change

Designation of critical habitat is an important conservation tool for species listed as threatened or endangered under the United States(U.S.)Endangered Species Act(ESA).While this is an important protective mechanism,lands designated as critical habitat could still be subject to degradation and fragmentation if they are not also in a protected status that prioritizes biodiversity conservation.Additionally,most designations of critical habitat do not explicitly take climate change into account.The objective of our study was to determine whether and to what extent critical habitats for species listed under the ESA are located within protected areas and areas previously identified as climate refugia or climate corridors,to inform management strategies to better conserve and recover these species.We mapped the designated critical habitats of 153 ESA-listed species and measured their overlap with previously-identified areas of climate refugia and corridors(CRC),and also with lands designated as nature-protected by U.S.Geological Survey’s Gap Analysis Project(GAP Status 1 or 2)and working lands with wildlife habitat potential(GAP Status 3).Only 18%of all designated critical habitat is located on lands that are both in CRC and nature-protected,and only 9%of species had over half of their designated critical habitats in such lands.84%of species had<25%overlap of their critical habitats with these areas.Critical habitats may therefore not fulfill their essential role of helping imperiled species persist and recover.