The high-strength low-alloy（ HSLA ） steel heat-affected zone （HAZ）softening was predicted using a grey model. HSLA steel DILLIMAX690E, NK-HITEN61OU2 and BHW35 were taken as examples in the research on ultra-narrow...The high-strength low-alloy（ HSLA ） steel heat-affected zone （HAZ）softening was predicted using a grey model. HSLA steel DILLIMAX690E, NK-HITEN61OU2 and BHW35 were taken as examples in the research on ultra-narrow gap automatic welding technology. Test results turned out to be that the errors between the values calculated by the Grey Model （GM） （ 1,1 ） model and their actual value were less than 2%, indicating that the grey prediction method could accurately reflect the actual situation of the high-strength low-alloy steel heat-affected zone softening. This method will play a crucial role in guiding the applications of HSLA steel welded structures in the future.展开更多
To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new ...To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.展开更多
In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new init...In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.展开更多
Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）....Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.展开更多
The method to enhance the precis io n of a grey model GM (1, 1) for predicting the development of vibration severity of a pump is investigated. The rectifying procedures involve the structure and the parameters rega...The method to enhance the precis io n of a grey model GM (1, 1) for predicting the development of vibration severity of a pump is investigated. The rectifying procedures involve the structure and the parameters regarding GM(1,1). A new model based on GM(1, 1), which is GM (E,1,1), is proposed. In GM(E,1,1), the distribution of relative errors rati os between the original series and predicting series obtained by the mean of GM( 1,1) are considered in special points to set up the threshold and adjusting coef ficients to control the modified action and the rectified amount based on distri bution of the original series. The case shows that GM(E, 1, 1) is good at predic ting the vibration severity development of the pump.展开更多
In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.B...In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.展开更多
Based on the gray theory and GM （1, 1） model, the various indexes in 2013-2020 are predicted using the data of all indexes of the economic development of Yunnan＇ s 8 minority areas in 2013-2020 and also compared wi...Based on the gray theory and GM （1, 1） model, the various indexes in 2013-2020 are predicted using the data of all indexes of the economic development of Yunnan＇ s 8 minority areas in 2013-2020 and also compared with the standard values of all indexes of building a well-off society in 2020, and the differences between them are analyzed. The purpose of this study is to provide a reference basis for Yunnan province＇ s government to analyze the economic development of the minority areas.展开更多
This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient ou...This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n ＋ 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM（1,N） model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given.展开更多
As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s liv...As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s livelihood. Firstly, the present situation of grain production is analyzed, and the problems facing the structural reform of grain supply side in China are analyzed from grain output and its import and export volume. Secondly, we use grey GM (1, 1) model to predict grain output and consumption, grain import and export volume and all kinds of grain crops output in China, and then analyze the future trend of grain production in China. Finally, we put forward construction of grain branding, rational allocation of grain planting varieties, construction of traceability system for grain production, further grain processing and development of “Internet agriculture” industrial model to promote structural reform of grain supply side.展开更多
Because the impacts of the factors such as some disturbances are graduallyadded into the system, the grey forecast results will deviate from the systemtrue value. To improve the forecast precision, Pro-Dens Julons pro...Because the impacts of the factors such as some disturbances are graduallyadded into the system, the grey forecast results will deviate from the systemtrue value. To improve the forecast precision, Pro-Dens Julons provided twomethfor-But they had not consider the impact of artificial disturbance. LiZhihua et al. of Qinghua Univ. presented another method. This paper revisesthe method and make it be a spocial case.展开更多
文摘The high-strength low-alloy（ HSLA ） steel heat-affected zone （HAZ）softening was predicted using a grey model. HSLA steel DILLIMAX690E, NK-HITEN61OU2 and BHW35 were taken as examples in the research on ultra-narrow gap automatic welding technology. Test results turned out to be that the errors between the values calculated by the Grey Model （GM） （ 1,1 ） model and their actual value were less than 2%, indicating that the grey prediction method could accurately reflect the actual situation of the high-strength low-alloy steel heat-affected zone softening. This method will play a crucial role in guiding the applications of HSLA steel welded structures in the future.
基金Supported by Science Research Project of Department of Education of Hubei Province (B20092901)~~
文摘To create a new prediction model, the unbiased GM （1,1） model is optimized by the five-point slide method in this paper. Then, based on the occurrence areas of dce blast in Enshi District during 1995 -2004, the new model and unbiased GM （1, 1 ） model are applied to predict the occurrence areas of rice blast during 2005 -2010. Predicting outcomes show that the prediction accuracy of five-point unbiased sliding optimized GM （1, 1 ） model is higher than the unbiased GM （1,1） model. Finally, combined with the prediction results, the author provides some suggestion for Enshi District in the prevention and control of rice blast in 2010.
文摘In order to prevent and control the water inflow of mines, this paper built a new initial GM（1, 1） model to torecast the maximum water inflow according to the principle of new information. The effect of the new initial GM（1, 1） model is not ideal by the concrete example. Then according to the principle of making the sum of the squares of the difference between the calculated sequences and the original sequences, an optimized GM（1, I） model was established. The result shows that this method is a new prediction method which can predict the maximum water inflow accurately. It not only conforms to the guide- line of prevention primarily, but also provides reference standards to managers on making prevention measures.
文摘Based on the theory of grey system, established GM （1, 1） grey catastrophe predict model for the first time in order to forecast the catastrophe periods of mine water inflowing （not the volume of water inflowing）. After establishing the grey predict system of the catastrophe regularity of 10 month-average volume of water inflowing, the grey forewarning for mine water inflowing catastrophe periods was established which was used to analyze water disaster in 400 meter level of Wennan Colliery. Based on residual analysis, it shows that the result of grey predict system is almost close to the actual value. And the scene actual result also shows the reliability of prediction. Both the theoretical analysis and the scene actual result indicate feasibility and reliability of the method of grey catastrophe predict system.
文摘The method to enhance the precis io n of a grey model GM (1, 1) for predicting the development of vibration severity of a pump is investigated. The rectifying procedures involve the structure and the parameters regarding GM(1,1). A new model based on GM(1, 1), which is GM (E,1,1), is proposed. In GM(E,1,1), the distribution of relative errors rati os between the original series and predicting series obtained by the mean of GM( 1,1) are considered in special points to set up the threshold and adjusting coef ficients to control the modified action and the rectified amount based on distri bution of the original series. The case shows that GM(E, 1, 1) is good at predic ting the vibration severity development of the pump.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(7084001290924022)the Ph.D.Thesis Innovation and Excellent Foundation of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics(2010)
文摘In grey system theory,the studies in the field of grey prediction model are focused on real number sequences,rather than grey number ones.Hereby,a prediction model based on interval grey number sequences is proposed.By mining the geometric features of interval grey number sequences on a two-dimensional surface,all the interval grey numbers are converted into real numbers by means of certain algorithm,and then the prediction model is established based on those real number sequences.The entire process avoids the algebraic operations of grey number,and the prediction problem of interval grey number is usefully solved.Ultimately,through an example＇s program simulation,the validity and practicability of this novel model are verified.
文摘Based on the gray theory and GM （1, 1） model, the various indexes in 2013-2020 are predicted using the data of all indexes of the economic development of Yunnan＇ s 8 minority areas in 2013-2020 and also compared with the standard values of all indexes of building a well-off society in 2020, and the differences between them are analyzed. The purpose of this study is to provide a reference basis for Yunnan province＇ s government to analyze the economic development of the minority areas.
基金supported by the Research Start Funds for Introducing High-level Talents of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power
文摘This paper expresses the efficient outputs of decisionmaking unit（DMU） as the sum of ＂average outputs＂ forecasted by a GM（1,N） model and ＂increased outputs＂ which reflect the difficulty to realize efficient outputs.The increased outputs are solved by linear programming using data envelopment analysis efficiency theories,wherein a new sample is introduced whose inputs are equal to the budget in the issue No.n ＋ 1 and outputs are forecasted by the GM（1,N） model.The shortcoming in the existing methods that the forecasted efficient outputs may be less than the possible actual outputs according to developing trends of input-output rate in the periods of pre-n is overcome.The new prediction method provides decision-makers with more decisionmaking information,and the initial conditions are easy to be given.
文摘As a special product, the cultivation and production of grain directly affect the consumption of people, which has an important influence on the development of social economy and the national economy and people’s livelihood. Firstly, the present situation of grain production is analyzed, and the problems facing the structural reform of grain supply side in China are analyzed from grain output and its import and export volume. Secondly, we use grey GM (1, 1) model to predict grain output and consumption, grain import and export volume and all kinds of grain crops output in China, and then analyze the future trend of grain production in China. Finally, we put forward construction of grain branding, rational allocation of grain planting varieties, construction of traceability system for grain production, further grain processing and development of “Internet agriculture” industrial model to promote structural reform of grain supply side.
文摘Because the impacts of the factors such as some disturbances are graduallyadded into the system, the grey forecast results will deviate from the systemtrue value. To improve the forecast precision, Pro-Dens Julons provided twomethfor-But they had not consider the impact of artificial disturbance. LiZhihua et al. of Qinghua Univ. presented another method. This paper revisesthe method and make it be a spocial case.
