In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The...In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.展开更多
Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of t...Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of the grey-Markov(GM)model.Therefore,a new idea is brought forward that the Markov theory is used twice,where the first time is to extend the original data and the second to calculate and estimate the residual errors.Then by comparing the original data sequence from a fault prediction case with the simulation sequence produced by the use of GM(1,1) and the new GM method,results are conforming to the original data.Finally,an assumption of GM model is put forward as the future work.展开更多
This paper discusses the characterization of railway transportation safety, andapplies the Grey-Markov forecasting model to predict the occurrences of thedriving accident on railway according to their speciality. It w...This paper discusses the characterization of railway transportation safety, andapplies the Grey-Markov forecasting model to predict the occurrences of thedriving accident on railway according to their speciality. It will offer a reliableargument for taking measures to prevent driving accidents.展开更多
文摘In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61303098)
文摘Modeling experiences of traditional grey-Markov show that the prediction results are not accurate when analyzed data are rare and fluctuated.So it is necessary to revise or improve the original modeling procedure of the grey-Markov(GM)model.Therefore,a new idea is brought forward that the Markov theory is used twice,where the first time is to extend the original data and the second to calculate and estimate the residual errors.Then by comparing the original data sequence from a fault prediction case with the simulation sequence produced by the use of GM(1,1) and the new GM method,results are conforming to the original data.Finally,an assumption of GM model is put forward as the future work.
文摘This paper discusses the characterization of railway transportation safety, andapplies the Grey-Markov forecasting model to predict the occurrences of thedriving accident on railway according to their speciality. It will offer a reliableargument for taking measures to prevent driving accidents.