Income Growth of Peasants Based on Grey Theory

Taking Jiangsu Province for example and using the relevant data in Jiangsu Statistical Yearbook and Statistical Communique of Jiangsu Province on National Economic and Social Development during 2002-2009,the thesis selects eight indexes including per capita net income of farmers,the fixed asset investment level in rural areas,average educational level,agricultural scientific and technological level,urbanization level,industrialization level,average consumption level per rural residents and per capita GDP and adopts the theory of grey correlation to analyze the factors influencing the peasants' net income.As shown in the result,the effect on the peasants' net income gives the following subsequence from great to little:average consumption level per capita of rural residents,urbanization level,average educational level,industrialization level,per capita GDP,number of scientific and technical personnel and fixed asset investment level in rural areas,that is,r06>r04>r02>r05>r07>r03>r01.Then combining with the practical conditions,the thesis makes a detailed analysis of each factor influencing the peasant's income growth and proposes corresponding measures in order to improve the peasants' income.

A Prediction Model of Peasants’ Income in China Based on BP Neural Network

According to the related data affecting the peasants’ income in China in the years 1978-2008,a total of 13 indices are selected,such as agricultural population,output value of primary industry,and rural employees.Based on the standardized method and BP neural network method,the peasants’ income and the artificial neural network model are established and analyzed.Results show that the simulation value agrees well with the real value;the neural network model with improved BP algorithm has high prediction accuracy,rapid convergence rate and good generalization ability.Finally,suggestions are put forward to increase the peasants’ income,such as promoting the process of urbanization,developing small and medium-sized enterprises in rural areas,encouraging intensive operation,and strengthening the rural infrastructure and agricultural science and technology input.

How China's Grain-for-Green Project Contributes to Farmers' Income Growth

Initially intended to prevent water and soil erosion, China＇s Grain-for-Green Project （GGP） also has had economic impacts on farmers＇incorne and employment. Based on the poverty monitoring survey data between 2006-2010 from National Bureau of Statistics （NBS）, this paper evaluates the GGP＇s policy effects with respect to farmers＇ income, non-agricultural employment and poverty alleviation. Our findings suggest that contributing to the GGP, farmers＇ income including GGP subsidies increased significantly compared with the pre-GGP level,＂ however, if GGP subsidies are not taken into account, the increase in farmers＇non-agricultural income after the GGP could only compensate.for the income losses from farmland reduction, showing an insignificant effect. Second, there exist significant differences on employment tendency among GGP households. High-income households tend to engage in operation business in forestry, livestock and fishery activities, while medium-income families are more inclined to seek employment outside, and the differences attribute to the inter-group intrinsic characteristics. Lastly, the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect varies with the difference in poverty standard. Overall the GGP＇s poverty alleviation effect is significant.

Territorial Inequality of Net Income per Peasant in Shandong Province and Its Mechanism

Income inequality among farmers living in different regions was an important form of territorial inequalities. Studying the territorial inequality of the net income per peasant was an emphasis of this paper, and Shandong Province was pointed as the case study region. By the help of logistic regression, it could be found that the special distribution of the net income per peasant in Shandong Province was affected by three factors： distance to No.308 National Highway, distance to the coastline in the east of Shandong Province, and urbanization rates. Based on the decomposition of Gini index, the net income per peasant was divided into four parts, and it was found that the income from family business and salary were the two major sources of income. As to the mechanism for income inequality, it was proved that urbanization was still the key factor. In order to reduce income inequality, the local governments should promote urbanization through improving road networks, such as building highways, which could connect rural areas with the major nodes such as big cities and the port cities in the east.

The Analysis of the Basic features of Peasant Households with Different Income levels——A Case of 259 Peasant Households in Three Villages of Hebei Province,China

According to the urban and rural income levels and the national poverty line,peasant households are classified into poor households,middle-income households and wealthy households.Based on the investigation data of 259 peasant households in three villages of Hebei Province,the features of family structure,economy,ideology and communication of peasant households with different income levels in current status are analyzed.The result shows that there are great differences in family structure,ideology,economy and communication of peasant households with different income levels.The low-income households are featured by unreasonable family structure,heavy burden,conservative behavior and blocking information.While the middle and high income households are good at communicating and willing to take risk and armed with high skills.Based on this,relevant suggestions are put forward to promote the development of peasant households,such as optimizing family structure,cultivating the capacity of the core numbers of the family,guiding households to choose a suitable development path,encouraging farmers to work out,ensuring the legitimate rights and interests of migrant workers,flourishing rural culture,and setting up good platform for the communication of households.

The Influence of Urbanization Development on Farmers' Income Growth in Wuhan City

Over the past three decades,with the development of urbanization in Wuhan,farmers' income has been substantially increased in Wuhan City,and urbanization has played an important role in farmers' income growth. By the empirical analysis of the data related to the level of urbanization development and farmers' income in Wuhan City during 1993- 2013,this paper finds that there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between urbanization development and farmers' income growth in Wuhan City,and urbanization development has become an important driving force for farmers' income growth. Finally,this paper puts forth some policy recommendations for promoting farmers' income by urbanization development in Wuhan City on the basis of empirical analysis.

The Evolutive Law concerning Relationship between Economic Growth and Farmers' Income Increase in Xinjiang since the Reform and Opening-up:An Empirical Analysis of the VEC Model

We select the per capita gross domestic product and rural residents' per capita net income in Xinjiang as the indicator variables to measure economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang, respectively. We establish the cointegration equation, the vector error correction (VEC) model, and use the impulse response function to conduct empirical analysis of the evolutive law concerning relationship between economic growth and farmers' income increase in Xinjiang during the period 1978-2010. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between economic growth in Xinjiang and farmers' income increase; the former plays an important role in promoting the latter, following the evolutive law "first intensify, then abate, intensify again, and finally become stable". We put the following policy recommendations: providing preferential policies for farmers, scientifically and rationally guiding the transfer of rural labor; improving the function of agriculture, increasing the proportion of non-farm income; gradually bridging the widening income gap between urban and rural areas, coordinating urban and rural development.

Income Growth,Income Gaps,and Rural Poverty Reduction in China

This paper analyzes the evolving trends in China’s rural poverty from 1988 to 2018 and how income growth and income gaps contributed to poverty reduction using rural household data from the China Household Income Project(CHIP).We find that after China’s reform and opening up policy introduced in 1978,China’s rural poverty has been reduced substantially due primarily to income growth,although this poverty-reducing effect was partially offset by widening income gaps.During the progress of this poverty reduction,however,income distribution replaced income growth as the key driver.For the extremely poor in particular,their poverty status hinged upon income distribution.As revealed by our empirical analysis of income sources,wage income became the chief source of income for rural households,contributing a rising share to poverty reduction in the countryside.The contribution of net income from government transfer to poverty reduction has increased in recent years,and this contribution has been increased with the deepening level of poverty.Calculation of the pro-poor growth index suggests that the poor population primarily benefited from the trickle-down effect of economic growth,and the economic growth pattern has yet to lean towards pro-poor growth.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ in Economic Growth in Different Economies

Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.

Impacts of household income on beef at-home consumption:Evidence from urban China

Beef consumption in China has increased substantially from 5.0 million tons in 2000 to 7.7 million tons in 2019 thanks to rapid income growth,but still remains low compared to pork and poultry consumption.Improving the understanding about the impacts of household income on beef consumption in China is necessary to forecast future beef demand and inform the domestic beef industry,especially in the context of unprecedented expansion of middle income class in China.Based on survey data of 32878 urban households collected by the National Bureau of Statistics of China,we employed the inverse hyperbolic sine(IHS)double-hurdle model to estimate income elasticities of beef demand across different income groups and simulated possible trends of future beef consumption of Chinese urban residents.The empirical results showed that the unconditional income elasticities of beef consumption at home vary between 0.169 for the lowincome group and 0.671 for the high-income group.The simulated results indicated that beef consumption is expected to increase by 12.0 to 38.8%in 10 years and by 18.6 to 70.5%in 15 years under distinct income growth scenarios.Our findings provide practical insights for policy makers and other stakeholders about future beef demand,such as potential opportunities embedded in rising beef demand for domestic producers and world beef exporters as well as the urgency of improving the supply chain resilience of beef in China.

‘Middle-Income Trap’ and ‘High-Income Waft＇： Challenges and Opportunities to China

The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.

How to Increase the Farmers' Income in Rongchang County?

The farmers' income growth in Rongchang County is mainly from the family business and wage income,accounting for 55. 4% and37. 9%,respectively; the growth rate of rural per capita net income increased from 12. 4% in 2005 to 17. 6% in 2010,close to or higher than Chongqing's average but lower than the level of adjacent districts and counties such as Yongchuan; the absolute value of net income in Rongchang increased from 3426 yuan to 6755 yuan,less than in other districts and counties similar to Yongchuan in Chongqing,far less than in the other three municipalities( up to 6991 yuan). The slow farmers' income growth is affected by multiple factors such as overall low quality of the rural labor force,county industrial structure and difficulties in transferring a large number of rural surplus labor forces. It is necessary to improve the quality of farmers,strive to adjust the agricultural structure,and develop rural cooperative economic organizations,in order to increase farmers' income.

Empirical Research on the Relations between Farmers' Income Increase and Economic Development in Henan Province

According to data of per capita net income of rural households and the per capita regional gross output from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Henan Statistical Yearbook, we know that both of the time series obey the unit root process, so they belong to non-stationary time series. The results of the Engle-Granger two-stage estimation method show that the two terms have long-term stable integration equilibrium relations. The results of Granger Causality Test show that there is only the one way Granger Causality relation from farmers' income increase to economic growth. Connecting with the reality of Henan Province, the possible reasons are analyzed. The population of rural residents is huge and the income level of the rural residents are low, and the marginal consumption tendency is bigger than urban and township residents, so the increase of farmers' income will promote economic growth. Notably, the income increase of farmers is even more helpful to expand domestic demand. Since 1978, the consumption level and structure of farmers in Henan Province is increasing gradually and the role played by of farmers' income increase in stimulating economic growth is increasing. Besides, the urban-rural double system which serves for economic development strategy is the historic root for the expanding gap of urban and rural income. In addition, the economic policy which gives priority to cities is the system root for the expanding gap of rural and urban income.

Nutritional Status of Under-five Children from Urban Low-income Families in Xiangtan and Jilin in China

There have been many studies on the nutrition and the growth status of children from rural and remote western regions of China, whereas researches on children from urban low-income families are scarce. This study aimed to investigate the growth and nutritional status of children under five years of age from urban low-income families in China. There were 169 children aged 25–60 months recruited from Xiangtan and Jilin, two cities with a population of 2.81 million and 4.26 million respectively, in China in this cluster cross-sectional study. Data were collected on demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, the feeding practices and the incidence of anemia and diarrhea. The results showed that the prevalence of low birth weight and macrosomia was 7.1% and 9.5% for the two cities, respectively, which was higher than that for other cities in China（1.5% and 5.9%）. Of all the sampled children, 14.6% and 8.2% suffered anemia and diarrhea, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that legumes or nuts fed in a 24-h recall increased the risk of anemia（OR=4.9）. Children whose caregivers began to introduce complementary foods relatively late would have high diarrhea prevalence（OR=1.4）. In conclusion, the prevalence of anemia and diarrhea in under-five children from urban low-income families in China is relatively high. The growth and nutritional status of these children is greatly affected by feeding practices. A series of measures should be taken by relevant government departments to improve the health of these children.

Global Income Inequality and Poverty Reduction:Trends and Remedies

There is a global consensus that world economy need not only grow faster,but also grow in a way that the poor receive a greater share of the benefits of that growth.It is well documented that income inequality is on the rise,with the richest 10%earning up to 40%of total global income.The poorest 10%earn only between 2%and 7%of total global income.After long time of neglect,inequality has re-entered the mainstream development policy agenda at both national and global levels indicating that relevant policies should be universal in principle paying attention to the needs of disadvantaged and marginalized populations.As highlighted in almost all SDG’s documents,income inequality is a global problem that requires global solutions.This involves improving the regulation and monitoring of financial markets and institutions,encouraging development assistance and foreign direct investment to regions where the need is greatest.Facilitating the safe migration and mobility of people is also key to bridging the widening divide.SDG 10 encompasses 10 targets with the objective of promoting social,economic,and political inclusion of all,irrespective of age,sex,disability,race,ethnicity,origin,religion,or economic or other status.Achieving SDG 10 reaffirms that the 2030 development agenda will focus not only on eradicating poverty but also on tackling inequalities in all its forms through adopting sound policies to empower the bottom percentile of income earners,and promote economic inclusion of all regardless of sex,race,or ethnicity.This paper analyses the resent status of income inequality and its relationship with economic growth and poverty in selected developing countries.The paper highlights that there is a triangular relationship between income distribution,poverty and economic growth;while accelerated economic growth is a primary factor in reducing poverty,inequalities can constrain poverty reduction significantly.

Causes for Middle Income Trap and Recommendations for China's Leaping Paths

The middle income trap is an objective challenge faced in the development of the economy. There is provision in both the amount and time. It is worth studying why some Latin American countries have fallen into this trap for decades. This paper analyzed the causes for the middle income trap of Latin American economies. On this basis,it came up with recommendations for China's leaping paths,including accelerating the structural reforms on the supply front to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,deepening the reform and increasing the efficiency with institutional innovation as the core,protecting legitimate property rights,reforming the income distribution,combining accurate poverty alleviation,narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor,performing administration according to laws,vigorously developing education,expanding the opening up,and keeping sustainable growth,so as to successfully leap over the middle income trap.

Socio-Economic Inequality and Economic Growth: Measurements for Central and Eastern Europe

The objective of this work is the study of social and economic inequality in the space of Central and Eastern Europe and its impact on economic growth. Our study includes a three-stage methodology:(1) application of a clustering method based on neural network (Self Organising Maps), to the series of panel data in order to divide countries into clusters, corresponding to the degree of economic and social inequality;(2) computing a composed index of economic and social inequality, using Principal Component Analysis and an extension of the method provided by OECD for computing composite indicators;(3) constructing an econometric model to establish the impact of social and economic inequality on economic growth and a VAR model to determine the causality between main determinants to growth and inequality as well as the response to shocks to the dynamics of the variables. The 24 Eastern and Central European countries have been grouped in five clusters, according to 11 attributes. In the results obtained, the third cluster comprises countries with the most equitable income distribution: Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Slovenia. To the opposite side is the fifth cluster with the deepest inequality, including only one country, namely Georgia. The second and third steps of our methodology, were applied only for the extreme clusters namely, the clusters with the highest (C5) and lowest (C3) inequality respectively.

喀斯特地区土地流转如何促进农户增收?——基于8省3678户的经验证据

充分发挥喀斯特地区土地流转的农户增收效应是推进山地农业高质量发展的有效渠道。基于中国喀斯特地区8个省区市3 678户农户微观调研数据,采用有序Logit模型、倾向得分匹配法、KHB方法等,考察土地流转对农户收入的影响和作用机制。结果表明:(1)土地流转显著提升了喀斯特地区农户家庭总收入水平,土地流转户收入水平较未参与流转户约高出12.86%;(2)相比于土地转入户,土地转出对农户收入增长的影响更为显著;(3)外出务工和家庭创业在土地转出影响农户收入关系中起中介作用,解释比例分别为17.18%和4.63%;农业机械化在耕地较为平整的转入户对收入的影响中起中介作用,解释比例为16.93%;(4)土地流转对种植经济作物、耕地较为平整、灌溉条件较好的农户家庭总收入影响显著为正。为此,建议进一步健全喀斯特地区土地流转机制,促进非农产业发展,加强丘陵山区农业机械化和农田水利设施建设,发展喀斯特地区特色高效农业,鼓励更多农户积极参与土地流转。

环境质量视角下收入差距对经济增长的影响研究——基于环境质量中介与门槛效应的实证分析

缩小收入差距,提升环境质量,实现经济可持续增长是推动我国新时期高质量发展的本质要求。基于2009—2020年中国30个省份的面板数据,运用动态面板模型、中介效应模型、动态门限面板模型实证研究了收入差距对经济增长的影响,以及环境质量在二者关系中所发挥的中介效应与门槛效应。研究结果表明:收入差距的扩大对经济增长有明显的抑制作用;环境质量在收入差距影响经济增长的过程中起到了部分中介作用与单重门槛效应,随着环境质量改善收入差距对经济增长呈现先促进后抑制的特征。政府应当积极通过缩小收入差距,优化环境质量与收入差距的匹配模式来促进经济增长,实现中国经济的可持续发展。

Analysis on Internal Growth Potential of Agriculture Under the Agricultural Structure Adjustment in Xinjiang

Agricultural structure adjustment has always been the important factors influencing Xinjiang agricultural internal income growth.On the basis of the planting scale,productivity and price in 2010,the paper measured the contributions made by agricultural structure adjustment to Xinjiang agricultural internal income growth through structural optimization.Linear programming model was established by Lingo software,to optimize the structure of planting,horticulture,animal husbandry in Xinjiang and analyze the internal agricultural income growth potential.After structure optimization,Xinjiang agricultural production value will reach 1231.44×108yuan and the farmers'income of production and management will reach 9851yuan.The greatest potential for Xinjiang agricultural internal income growth was husbandry accounting for 41.33% of the total production value.The next one was horticulture,whose share of the total production value has raised to 17.43% from 10%.Fruit industry and animal husbandry will become the pillars of future income growth.There are still some income growth spaces in Xinjiang internal agriculture though the agricultural structure adjustment.The agricultural production value will increase by 44.32%and farmers'production and management income will increase by 68.83%.That will be one of the most important ways to tap the future potential of agriculture internal income growth.