Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning. Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta, China as an example, three urban development scena...Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning. Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta, China as an example, three urban development scenarios, historical trend (HT) scenario, forest protection (FP) scenario, and growth restriction (GR) scenario, were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario. More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario. Furthermore, the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020, while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025. The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics, class area, number of patches, largest patch index, edge density, and contagion index, showed that under all the scenarios, the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact, and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous. These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.展开更多
The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. T...The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988-2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was pro-jected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and ur-ban planning scenario (Scenario PP), and (3) environmental protection scenario (Scenario EP). Scenario analysis showed that urban growth would accelerate under all policy scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. Urban development under Scenario CT would lead to substantial loss of resource lands than that under the other two scenarios, and the urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex and dispersed. In contrast, urban growth under scenario PP and EP would consume less natural resource land and show a relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it is crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and to protect primary farmland and the support system of urban ecology in Shenyang City. The SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources to a certain extent.展开更多
基金Support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40671127)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (No. 2006AA120102)+1 种基金the National Science & Technology Pillar Program in the Eleventh Five-year Plan Period (No. 2008BAK49B04)the National Next Generation Internet Program of China (No. CNGI-09- 01-07)
文摘Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning. Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta, China as an example, three urban development scenarios, historical trend (HT) scenario, forest protection (FP) scenario, and growth restriction (GR) scenario, were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method. The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario. More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario. Furthermore, the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020, while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025. The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics, class area, number of patches, largest patch index, edge density, and contagion index, showed that under all the scenarios, the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact, and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous. These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.
基金Supported by the National Key Technology R&D Program (No.2006BAJ10B05)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.30800149)
文摘The SLEUTH urban growth model was used to simulate future urban growth patterns and to explore potential environ-mental impacts of urban development under different conditions of development in Shenyang City, China. The SLEUTH model was calibrated with historical data (1988-2004) extracted from a time series of TM satellite images, and the future growth was pro-jected out to 2030 assuming three different policy scenarios: (1) current trends scenario (Scenario CT), (2) regional policy and ur-ban planning scenario (Scenario PP), and (3) environmental protection scenario (Scenario EP). Scenario analysis showed that urban growth would accelerate under all policy scenarios with significant differences in development pattern and sustainability after 2016. Urban development under Scenario CT would lead to substantial loss of resource lands than that under the other two scenarios, and the urban landscape pattern would be increasingly complex and dispersed. In contrast, urban growth under scenario PP and EP would consume less natural resource land and show a relatively compact urban development pattern during the prediction period. This study suggested that it is crucial to take stringent urban planning and management measures to control future urban growth and to protect primary farmland and the support system of urban ecology in Shenyang City. The SLEUTH model is a useful planning tool to guide sustainable utilization of urban land resources to a certain extent.
