Fires,including wildfires,harm air quality and essential public services like transportation,communication,and utilities.These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions,including temperature and aerosols,potenti...Fires,including wildfires,harm air quality and essential public services like transportation,communication,and utilities.These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions,including temperature and aerosols,potentially affecting severe convective storms.Here,we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States(WUS)on the occurrence of large hail(size:≥2.54 cm)in the central US(CUS)over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning(ML),Random Forest(RF),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB)methods.The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy(>90%)and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide,particularly in four states(Wyoming,South Dakota,Nebraska,and Kansas).The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region(temperature and moisture),the westerly wind over the plume transport path,and the fire features(i.e.,the maximum fire power and burned area).The results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS,corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.展开更多
[Objective] The Doppler radar data about a super monomer hailstorms in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Zhongchuan Airport in the Lanzhou City on September 6,2010 was studied.[Method] By dint of routine d...[Objective] The Doppler radar data about a super monomer hailstorms in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Zhongchuan Airport in the Lanzhou City on September 6,2010 was studied.[Method] By dint of routine data and radar data,the low vortex shear line type and the super monomer hailstorm around the Zhongchuan Airport in the Lanzhou City on September 6,2010 were expounded.Basic product and secondary product of Doppler radar were used in this process to reflect the characteristics of strong convection weather.Some characteristics of this process shall be explored.[Result] A small gush of cold air from the cold vortex of 500 hPa in the middle and high layer provided impacts.The warm shear line provided water vapor and energy in the 700 hPa.There was strong convective weather in the upper air.Such 10 minutes of hailstorm was rarely seen in the drought land in the northwest.The characteristics of the strong convection were distinct and typical.The front showed no echo form.However,it can not be reflected in 'strong wedge' in another form.In this process,characteristics of BWER and middle scale cyclone were distinct.And this was a typical hailstorm process caused by super monomer.[Conclusion] The study provided some helpful references for the forecast of strong convection weather in the Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou City.展开更多
By their definition, destructive hailstorms cause a great deal of damage to property and have been known to be fatal to humans. At present the long term changes in the frequency of these storms are unknown. Records of...By their definition, destructive hailstorms cause a great deal of damage to property and have been known to be fatal to humans. At present the long term changes in the frequency of these storms are unknown. Records of destructive hailstorms from many different sources in England and Wales go back for several centuries. Recently discovered records of over 30 destructive hailstorms have allowed a better description of hailstorm history since 1780. The data were grouped into 30, 40, and 50 year non-overlapping time periods in relation to time. Increases in their frequency in the 17th and 18th centuries were probably due to an increase in population and better recording. Since 1900 the frequency has significantly declined so that in the present 50 year time period only 22 have been recorded as compared with an average of 49 in both halves of the 19th century. The decline in frequency may be partly due to the big increase in particulate matter from aviation, which leads to a much higher concentration of ice and cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in fewer destructive hailstorms.展开更多
本文采用WRF4.2模式对2020年5月19日发生在贵阳的一次冰雹过程进行数值模拟,再现了冰雹云在贵阳市的移动路径和发展演变过程。通过对冰雹云不同发展阶段的动力、热力和云微物理特征的分析,以及冰雹混合比源汇项的收支分析,得到了冰雹形...本文采用WRF4.2模式对2020年5月19日发生在贵阳的一次冰雹过程进行数值模拟,再现了冰雹云在贵阳市的移动路径和发展演变过程。通过对冰雹云不同发展阶段的动力、热力和云微物理特征的分析,以及冰雹混合比源汇项的收支分析,得到了冰雹形成的微物理机制及概念模型。研究结果表明:(1)模拟的冰雹云在成熟阶段呈现典型的超级单体结构,存在悬垂回波和回波空洞。云内最大上升速度可达20 m s^(−1),上升气流从地面延伸至12 km,在高空西风的作用下向东流出,形成宽广的高空云砧。在上升气流后部中低层为强下沉气流。(2)雹胚粒子通过云冰碰冻雨滴形成,通过收集过冷云滴和雨滴增长,雹粒子的最大汇项是融化成雨水。(3)在冰雹云的成熟阶段,雹收集过冷云滴的效率增大,主要发生在强上升运动区中高层(6~10 km高度),大量雹粒子分布在上升运动区中高层以及悬垂回波区,最大混合比可达11 g kg^(−1)。(4)在冰雹云的消散阶段,云内上升速度减弱,高空云砧的范围扩大。雹粒子净转化效率降低,雹混合比减少。雹融化为雨水的效率增大,雨水分布质心降低,在近地面产生大量雨水。展开更多
基金supported by the U.S.Department of Energy,Office of Science,Office of Biological and Environmental Research program as part of the Regional and Global Model Analysis and Multi-Sector Dynamics program areas(Award Number DE-SC0016605)Argonne National Laboratory is operated for the DOE by UChicago Argonne,LLC,under contract DE-AC02-06CH11357+1 种基金the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center(NERSC)NERSC is a U.S.DOE Office of Science User Facility operated under Contract DE-AC02-05CH11231.
文摘Fires,including wildfires,harm air quality and essential public services like transportation,communication,and utilities.These fires can also influence atmospheric conditions,including temperature and aerosols,potentially affecting severe convective storms.Here,we investigate the remote impacts of fires in the western United States(WUS)on the occurrence of large hail(size:≥2.54 cm)in the central US(CUS)over the 20-year period of 2001–20 using the machine learning(ML),Random Forest(RF),and Extreme Gradient Boosting(XGB)methods.The developed RF and XGB models demonstrate high accuracy(>90%)and F1 scores of up to 0.78 in predicting large hail occurrences when WUS fires and CUS hailstorms coincide,particularly in four states(Wyoming,South Dakota,Nebraska,and Kansas).The key contributing variables identified from both ML models include the meteorological variables in the fire region(temperature and moisture),the westerly wind over the plume transport path,and the fire features(i.e.,the maximum fire power and burned area).The results confirm a linkage between WUS fires and severe weather in the CUS,corroborating the findings of our previous modeling study conducted on case simulations with a detailed physics model.
文摘[Objective] The Doppler radar data about a super monomer hailstorms in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in the Zhongchuan Airport in the Lanzhou City on September 6,2010 was studied.[Method] By dint of routine data and radar data,the low vortex shear line type and the super monomer hailstorm around the Zhongchuan Airport in the Lanzhou City on September 6,2010 were expounded.Basic product and secondary product of Doppler radar were used in this process to reflect the characteristics of strong convection weather.Some characteristics of this process shall be explored.[Result] A small gush of cold air from the cold vortex of 500 hPa in the middle and high layer provided impacts.The warm shear line provided water vapor and energy in the 700 hPa.There was strong convective weather in the upper air.Such 10 minutes of hailstorm was rarely seen in the drought land in the northwest.The characteristics of the strong convection were distinct and typical.The front showed no echo form.However,it can not be reflected in 'strong wedge' in another form.In this process,characteristics of BWER and middle scale cyclone were distinct.And this was a typical hailstorm process caused by super monomer.[Conclusion] The study provided some helpful references for the forecast of strong convection weather in the Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou City.
文摘By their definition, destructive hailstorms cause a great deal of damage to property and have been known to be fatal to humans. At present the long term changes in the frequency of these storms are unknown. Records of destructive hailstorms from many different sources in England and Wales go back for several centuries. Recently discovered records of over 30 destructive hailstorms have allowed a better description of hailstorm history since 1780. The data were grouped into 30, 40, and 50 year non-overlapping time periods in relation to time. Increases in their frequency in the 17th and 18th centuries were probably due to an increase in population and better recording. Since 1900 the frequency has significantly declined so that in the present 50 year time period only 22 have been recorded as compared with an average of 49 in both halves of the 19th century. The decline in frequency may be partly due to the big increase in particulate matter from aviation, which leads to a much higher concentration of ice and cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in fewer destructive hailstorms.
文摘本文采用WRF4.2模式对2020年5月19日发生在贵阳的一次冰雹过程进行数值模拟,再现了冰雹云在贵阳市的移动路径和发展演变过程。通过对冰雹云不同发展阶段的动力、热力和云微物理特征的分析,以及冰雹混合比源汇项的收支分析,得到了冰雹形成的微物理机制及概念模型。研究结果表明:(1)模拟的冰雹云在成熟阶段呈现典型的超级单体结构,存在悬垂回波和回波空洞。云内最大上升速度可达20 m s^(−1),上升气流从地面延伸至12 km,在高空西风的作用下向东流出,形成宽广的高空云砧。在上升气流后部中低层为强下沉气流。(2)雹胚粒子通过云冰碰冻雨滴形成,通过收集过冷云滴和雨滴增长,雹粒子的最大汇项是融化成雨水。(3)在冰雹云的成熟阶段,雹收集过冷云滴的效率增大,主要发生在强上升运动区中高层(6~10 km高度),大量雹粒子分布在上升运动区中高层以及悬垂回波区,最大混合比可达11 g kg^(−1)。(4)在冰雹云的消散阶段,云内上升速度减弱,高空云砧的范围扩大。雹粒子净转化效率降低,雹混合比减少。雹融化为雨水的效率增大,雨水分布质心降低,在近地面产生大量雨水。
