China expected to maintain steady economic growth leading to 2015 NUMBERS released by the National Bureau of Statistics in July show that China＇s GDP growth in the first half of this year slowed to 7.6 percent,with g...China expected to maintain steady economic growth leading to 2015 NUMBERS released by the National Bureau of Statistics in July show that China＇s GDP growth in the first half of this year slowed to 7.6 percent,with growth in the second quarter only reaching 7.5 percent.Optimists believe that economic growth rose more than expected in the second quarter,but some economists say China＇s economy still faces downward pressure,and an economic hard landing is likely.Despite these dire predictions,China will maintain a steady economic growth rate between 7-8 percent during the 12th Five-Year Plan period（2011-15）.展开更多
China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s grow...China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.展开更多
A global economic recession, ignited by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, might be unavoidable in the near future. In the meantime, a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the third quarter is posing da...A global economic recession, ignited by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, might be unavoidable in the near future. In the meantime, a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the third quarter is posing daunting challenges to the government’s macro-control policies. Ha Jiming, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corp. (CICC), recently wrote an article in the 21st Century Business Herald about what he believes to be the root cause of China’s economic slowdown and how the government can revive the economy. Excerpts follow.展开更多
文摘China expected to maintain steady economic growth leading to 2015 NUMBERS released by the National Bureau of Statistics in July show that China＇s GDP growth in the first half of this year slowed to 7.6 percent,with growth in the second quarter only reaching 7.5 percent.Optimists believe that economic growth rose more than expected in the second quarter,but some economists say China＇s economy still faces downward pressure,and an economic hard landing is likely.Despite these dire predictions,China will maintain a steady economic growth rate between 7-8 percent during the 12th Five-Year Plan period（2011-15）.
文摘China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.
文摘A global economic recession, ignited by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, might be unavoidable in the near future. In the meantime, a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the third quarter is posing daunting challenges to the government’s macro-control policies. Ha Jiming, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corp. (CICC), recently wrote an article in the 21st Century Business Herald about what he believes to be the root cause of China’s economic slowdown and how the government can revive the economy. Excerpts follow.
