Hazard-based duration modelling of merging time interval on freeway on-ramps

Freeway on-ramps suffer high crash risks due to frequent merging behaviours.This study developed hazard-based duration models to investigate the merging time interval on freeway on-ramps based on microscopic trajectory data.Fixed effect,random effect and random parameters Weibull distributed accelerated failure time models were developed to capture merging time as a function of various dynamic variables.The random parameters model was found to outperform the two counterparts since the unobserved heterogeneity of individual drivers was captured.Modelling estimation results indicate that drivers along the merging section with an auxiliary lane perform a smooth merging process and are easily affected by speed variables.Dynamics of leading and following vehicles on the merging and target lanes are found to influence the merging time interval for merging without an auxiliary lane,whereas the influence of surrounding vehicles ismarginal for thosewith an auxiliary lane.The findings of this study identify potential countermeasures for improving safety during the merging process.

Spatiotemporal changes in sunshine duration and its influential factors in Chongqing,China from 1961 to 2020

The surface solar radiation in most parts of the world has undergone a phenomenon known as global dimming and brightening,characterized by an initial decrease followed by an increase.As a result,the sunshine duration(SD)has decreased in the past 60 years.Against the backdrop of global dimming and brightening,SD has decreased to varying degrees in many regions of China.Using the observed data of SD,cloud amount(total cloud amount and low cloud amount,abbreviated as TCA and LCA),precipitation,and relative humidity(RH)from 34 meteorological stations in Chongqing during the period of 1961-2020,along with a digital elevation model(DEM)with a resolution of 90 m,this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of SD.The analysis employed methods such as linear regression,Mann-Kendall test,wavelet transformation,and DEM-based possible SD distributed model.The results showed that the annual SD in Chongqing has significantly decreased over the last 60 years,with a decreasing interannual trend rate(ITR)of 40.4 h/10a.Except for no obvious trend in spring,SD decreased significantly in summer,autumn and winter at the ITR of 21.1 h/10a,8.5 h/10a and 7.5 h/10a,respectively.An abrupt decrease in the annual SD was found in 1979.The difference before and after the abrupt decrease was 177.7 h.The difference before and after the abrupt decrease was 177.7 h.The annual SD possessed the oscillation period of 11a.The spatial heterogeneity of the mean annual SD during the last 60 years was obvious.The distribution of SD in Chongqing is high in the northeast and low in the southeast.In addition,about 73%of the total area in Chongqing showed a significant and very significant decreasing trend.The regions with significant changes are mainly concentrated in the regions with altitudes of 200~1000 m.The increasing LCA was the main cause of the decrease of the annual SD in the regions with 200-400 m altitude decreased the most and changed the most.Increasing LCA is the primary cause of the reduction in annual SD,showing a strong negative correlation coefficient of-0.7292.In Chongqing,PM2.5 concentration showed a significant decrease trend in annual,spring,autumn and winter during 2000-2020,but the significant correlation between PM2.5 concentration and SD was only in autumn and reached an extremely significant level.

Modeling Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) and Establishing Climate Change Existence in Uyo-Nigeria Using Non-Stationary Approach

This study aims at establishing if climate change exists in the Niger Delta environment using non-stationary rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) modelling incorporating time-variant parameters. To compute the intensity levels, the open-access R-studio software was used based on the General Extreme Value (GEV) distribution function. Among the four linear parameter models adopted for integrating time as a covariate, the fourth linear model incorporating scale and location with the shape function constant produced the least corrected Akaike Information Criteria (AICc), varying between 306.191 to 101.497 for 15 and 1440 minutes, respectively, selected for calibration of the GEV distribution equation. The non-stationary intensities yielded higher values above those of stationary models, proving that the assumption of stationary IDF models underestimated extreme events. The difference of 13.71 mm/hr (22.71%) to 14.26 mm/hr (17.0%) intensities implies an underestimation of the peak flood from a stationary IDF curve. The statistical difference at a 95% confidence level between stationary and non-stationary models was significant, confirming evidence of climatic change influenced by time-variant parameters. Consequently, emphasis should be on applying shorter-duration storms for design purposes occurring with higher intensities to help reduce the flood risk and resultant infrastructural failures.

DURATION OF NEGATIVE SURPLUS FOR A TWO STATE MARKOV-MODULATED RISK MODEL

We consider a continuous time risk model based on a two state Markov process, in which after an exponentially distributed time, the claim frequency changes to a different level and can change back again in the same way. We derive the Laplace transform for the first passage time to surplus zero from a given negative surplus and for the duration of negative surplus. Closed-form expressions are given in the case of exponential individual claim. Finally, numerical results are provided to show how to estimate the moments of duration of negative surplus.

Estimation of Daily Global Solar Radiation with Different Sunshine-Based Models for Some Burundian Stations

Sunshine duration (S) based empirical equations have been employed in this study to estimate the daily global solar radiation on a horizontal surface (G) for six meteorological stations in Burundi. Those equations include the Ångström-Prescott linear model and four amongst its derivatives, i.e. logarithmic, exponential, power and quadratic functions. Monthly mean values of daily global solar radiation and sunshine duration data for a period of 20 to 23 years, from the Geographical Institute of Burundi (IGEBU), have been used. For any of the six stations, ten single or double linear regressions have been developed from the above-said five functions, to relate in terms of monthly mean values, the daily clearness index () to each of the next two kinds of relative sunshine duration (RSD): and . In those ratios, G0, S0 and stand for the extraterrestrial daily solar radiation on a horizontal surface, the day length and the modified day length taking into account the natural site’s horizon, respectively. According to the calculated mean values of the clearness index and the RSD, each station experiences a high number of fairly clear (or partially cloudy) days. Estimated values of the dependent variable (y) in each developed linear regression, have been compared to measured values in terms of the coefficients of correlation (R) and of determination (R2), the mean bias error (MBE), the root mean square error (RMSE) and the t-statistics. Mean values of these statistical indicators have been used to rank, according to decreasing performance level, firstly the ten developed equations per station on account of the overall six stations, secondly the six stations on account of the overall ten equations. Nevertheless, the obtained values of those indicators lay in the next ranges for all the developed sixty equations:;;;, with . These results lead to assert that any of the sixty developed linear regressions (and thus equations in terms of and ), fits very adequately measured data, and should be used to estimate monthly average daily global solar radiation with sunshine duration for the relevant station. It is also found that using as RSD, is slightly more advantageous than using for estimating the monthly average daily clearness index, . Moreover, values of statistical indicators of this study match adequately data from other works on the same kinds of empirical equations.

On the Distribution of Duration of First Negative Surplus for a Discrete Time Risk Model with Random Interest Rate

In this paper, we examine further annuity-due risk model presented by Cai （Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences, 16（2002）, 309-324）. We consider the computation for the distribution of duration of first negative surplus and the algorithm is shown for calculating probability that ruin occurs and the duration of first negative surplus takes any nonnegative integers values. Numerical illustration for the main result is given.

Duration-HyTE:基于持续时间建模的时间感知知识表示学习方法

知识表示学习是知识获取与应用的基础,是贯穿知识图谱构建与应用全过程的重要问题,伴随含有时间标签的大型知识图谱的发展,近几年时间感知的知识表示学习成为该领域研究热点之一.针对传统方法不能有效学习知识持续时长分布规律的问题,融合超平面和有效持续时间建模,提出一种时间感知知识表示学习方法Duration-HyTE.首先,将元事实按照有效持续时间分类,对知识有效持续时间进行建模,提出知识有效可信度的计算方法,将其作用于训练过程评价函数和损失函数的计算,最后在含有时间标签的数据集Wikidata12K、YAGO11K和新建立的持续型关系数据集上进行对比实验,结果表明与其他同类方法相比,Duration-HyTE方法在实体和关系的链接预测和时间预测上性能得到有效提升,尤其在Wikidata12K数据集上,经Duration-HyTE训练得到的知识表示模型对于头尾实体的预测效果比当前最优的表示方法分别提升了25.7%和35.8%,有效提高了链接预测准确率.

Deriving the slope-mean shielded astronomical solar radiation spectrum and slope-mean possible sunshine duration spectrum over the Loess Plateau

Solar radiation is often shielded by terrain relief, especially in mountainous areas, before reaching the surface of the Earth. The objective of this paper is to study the spatial structures of the shielded astronomical solar radiation(SASR) and the possible sunshine duration(PSD) over the Loess Plateau. To this end, we chose six test areas representing different landforms over the Loess Plateau and the software package of Matlab was used as the main computing platform. In each test area, 5-m-resolution digital elevation model established from 1:10,000 scale topographic maps was used to compute the corresponding slope, SASR and PSD. Then, we defined the concepts of the slope-mean SASR spectrum and the slope-mean PSD spectrum, and proposed a method to extract them from the computed slope, SASR and PSD over rectangular analysis windows. Using this method, we found both spectrums in a year or in a season for each of the four seasons in the six test areas. Each spectrum was found only when the area of the corresponding rectangular analysis window was greater than the corresponding stable area of the spectrum. The values of the two spectrums decreased when the slope increased.Furthermore, the values of the stable areas of the spectrums in a year or in a season were positively correlated with the variable coefficients of the slope or the profile curvature. The values of the stable areas of the two spectrums in a year or in a season may represent the minimum value of test areas for corresponding future research on the spatial structures of the SASR or PSD. All the findings herein suggest that the spatial structures of the PSD and the SASR are caused by the interactions between solar radiation and terrain relief and that the method for extracting either spectrum is effective for detecting their spatial structures. This study may deepen our understanding of the spatial structure of solar radiation and help us further explore the distribution of solar energy in mountainous regions.

GENERALIZED STOCHASTIC DURATION INMARKOVIAN HEATH-JARROW-MORTONFRAMEWORK

This paper focuses on how to measure the interest rate risk. The conventional measure methods of interest rate risk are reviewed and the duration concept is generalized to stochastic duration in the Markovian HJM framework. The generalized stochastic duration of the coupon bond is defined as the time to maturity of a zero coupon bond having the same instantaneous variance as the coupon bond. According to this definition., the authors first present the framework of Markovian HJM model, then deduce the measures of stochastic duration in some special cases which cover some extant interest term structure.

Duration Dependence in Housing Price Market: A Metro Level Test in United States

Duration dependence affects the dynamics of multi sate time to event outcomes. In this paper we are testing if a contraction or an expansion state for the housing price is duration dependent on previous states lengths. This test has implications for explaining the dynamics and the predictability of the housing prices in subsequent spells of contraction/expansion. The test is carried on using a discrete time duration model. This research shows that federal fund rate has strong effect on duration of both expansion and contraction. The analysis is also showing that while for both contraction and expansion spells we observe duration dependence, the risk of exiting from either spell at the beginning of the spell is practically flat for the first five to six years in the expansion spells and between seven and eight years in the contraction spells. After these periods the risk of exiting an expansion spell is increasing but in a non-monotone way, while for the contraction spell the risk of exiting the state is increasing in a monotone way, making the contraction periods easier to predict than the expansion periods.

Research on Link Duration for Mobile Multihop Communication Networks

Mobile multihop communication network is an important branch of modern mobile communication system, and is an important technical support for ubiquitous communication. The random movement of the nodes makes the networking be more flexible, but the frequently changing topology will decrease the link duration between nodes significantly, which will increase the packets loss probability and affect the network communication performance. Aiming at the problem of declining link duration caused by nomadic characteristics in mobile multihop communication network, four link duration models for possible moving states are established based on different features in real networking process in this paper, which will provide reliable criterion for the optimal routing selection. Model analysis and simulation results show that the reliable route established by the proposed model will effectively extend the link duration, and can enhance the global stability of the mobile multihop information transmission, so as to provide new option to transmission reliability improvement for the mobile communication network.

有界流场中潜艇水压场特性的预报方法和重要特征

潜艇水压场特性是信息化海战场的重要信息源。基于势流理论研究潜艇水压场特性的工程简化预报方法,构建基于兰金体线型的解析模型和基于回转体线型的数值模型,预估多种线型的潜艇水压场特性,并在验证性研究基础上,揭示潜艇线型、潜深等因素对潜艇水压场负压峰值、负压持续时间等重要特征的影响规律。研究结果表明:随着潜深增大,潜艇水压场负压区形状由单峰值的V形逐渐变为U形,甚至双峰值的W形,线型、潜深等因素对重要特征的影响逐渐增强;同一潜深下,随着航速增大,负压持续时间均呈现先突增、后缓降规律,且无论艇体胖瘦,其水压场重要特征在1倍艇长的横距外均已衰减,即该横距外水雷已难以捕捉其目标特性。

基于MS(2)-AR-TVTP模型的I_(BD)波动周期非对称性和持续性分析

国际干散货运输市场源于国际贸易的衍生需求,受世界经济的影响,是一个典型的周期性市场。选取1999年11月~2021年12月的波罗的海干散货运价指数(I_(BD))月度数据,在检验序列平稳性的基础上,确定最优滞后长度,构建两区制的时变转换概率马尔科夫转换自回归模型,分析I_(BD)波动周期的持续时间、转换拐点和非对称性等主要特征。研究结果表明:模型能有效拟合I_(BD)波动周期的主要特征,周期平均持续时间为33.7个月,自2008年9月之后呈缩短态势,上升期和下降期交互更频繁;I_(BD)波动周期具有非对称性,周期内上升期持续时间比下降期长,I_(BD)维持上升期更具有稳定性。周期性特征结果可为干散货航运业造船投资和市场经营提供决策依据。

时空因素对政策执行的影响与高效执行机制的构建——基于A省与B省“双碳”政策执行的案例分析

超大治理规模条件下,政策执行空间与执行周期是影响公共政策执行不可忽视的重要外在因素。为验证、探讨时间与空间因素如何影响我国长周期的政策执行,选取A省与B省的“双碳”政策执行过程为案例进行分析。研究发现:执行偏差产生和加剧的主要机理在于时空因素,即执行空间与执行周期影响政策执行目标的模糊性与冲突性;技术因素具有时间缩短与空间扩大双重叠加效应;基于时空因素的高效执行机制缺位是运动式执行的重要原因。构建高效政策执行机制必须同步考虑时间与空间的因素,建立相应具有时间和空间缩减功能的机制,提高政策执行力;技术手段(尤其是数字赋能)可通过缩短政策执行周期、扩大政策执行目标的适应空间的方式来降低执行目标的模糊性与冲突性。

降雨雨型对城市雨水系统内涝弹性的影响

为探究降雨雨型对城市雨水系统内涝弹性的影响,基于MIKE FLOOD平台,以济南市新旧动能转换起步区大桥分区为研究对象,对7种重现期、3种降雨历时和3种雨峰系数的设计降雨雨型进行内涝过程场景推演,并结合层次分析法,以积水量、积水面积和平均积水深度为基础量化系统内涝弹性。结果表明:积水量峰值、积水面积峰值均随重现期、降雨历时的增大而增大,平均积水深度波动较大;系统性能前后主要发生两次波动,分别由降雨强度变化和研究区大部分洼地深度较浅导致;随着重现期的增加,系统内涝弹性越小,单位雨峰系数引起的系统内涝弹性极值对应的降雨量差异越来越大,整体上,降雨雨峰越居中和降雨历时越大,系统内涝弹性越小。

深部开采地表移动延续时间预测模型及其参数分析

基于改进Knothe时间模型,根据地表移动延续时间定义,建立能够综合考虑采高、平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度和开采速度等因素的深部开采地表移动延续时间理论预测模型,并根据概率积分法给出了模型参数确定方法。采用24个深部工作面开采地表移动延续时间监测数据对预测模型的合理性和精确性进行验证。结果表明:地表移动延续时间模型预测结果与24个工作面监测结果基本吻合,两者平均绝对误差仅38 d,均方根误差仅为47 d,平均绝对误差百分比仅为9%,远小于现有3种经验模型的预测误差,验证了地表移动延续时间预测模型的精确性;地表移动延续时间受采高、平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度和开采速度的影响,随采高的增加而非线性增加,随平均采深、松散层厚度、基岩层厚度的增加而线性增加,但随开采速度的增加而非线性减小。该研究可为深部开采地表移动变形稳定性评估和科学制定开采计划提供理论指导。

平原城市高度建成区暴雨内涝模拟及防治研究

针对平原城市高度建成区暴雨引发的城市内涝问题,以珠三角城市东莞市为例,基于MIKE FLOOD平台,利用MIKE URBAN、 MIKE 11和MIKE 21构建了城市内涝耦合模型。同时,结合历史暴雨事件提出一种长历时暴雨设计雨型,分析50 a一遇设计降雨重现期下东莞市中心城区暴雨内涝过程和积水特征,提出改善“大排水系统”排水能力的内涝治理措施并评估其实施效果。结果表明:东莞市中心城区内涝的主要原因为河道水流顶托及道路排水不畅,河道拓宽整治结合道路竖向调整可使管网溢流程度降低45%,内涝淹没面积减小73%。提高研究区内河、道路排水通道等“大排水系统”的排水能力对改善研究区域的内涝现状效果显著。研究成果可为平原城市高度建成区的内涝治理提供技术支撑。

缺血缺氧脑瘫大鼠的时效研究

目的:基于缺血缺氧脑瘫大鼠神经功能评分(Zea-Longa评分)、脑组织肉眼观和大脑海马区胱天蛋白酶-9(Caspase-9)、胱天蛋白酶-3(Caspase-3)的表达水平变化,探讨缺血缺氧模型脑瘫大鼠的有效时长。方法:选取3周龄斯泼累格·多雷(SD)健康大鼠,随机分为正常组和模型组,采用改良的Rice-Vannucci方法建立脑瘫模型,造模后第1、7、14、21天,观察各组大鼠的一般情况并进行神经功能评分,在第7、14、21天分批处死大鼠并取脑组织,观察各组大鼠左侧脑组织,检测海马区Caspase-9、Caspase-3的表达水平。结果:一般情况:造模后第1天,与正常组比较,模型组大鼠左侧瞳孔缩小、姿势异常、自发或夹尾左旋、自主活动减少、兴奋性降低、肌肉颤动、头颤,抽搐,抓取时抵抗反应明显,随着时间延长,以上异常行为逐渐消失,造模后21 d基本消失不见,但左侧瞳孔一直小于对侧;Zea-Longa评分:与正常组比较,模型组造模后7、14 d Zea-Longa评分较高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);脑组织肉眼观:与正常组比较,模型组造模后7、14及21 d大鼠左侧脑组织有不同程度的萎缩和坏死;免疫组化结果:与正常组比较,模型组造模后7 d、14 d Caspase-9、Caspase-3的表达水平均显著升高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:3周龄缺血缺氧脑瘫模型大鼠的有效时长为14~21 d,可干预14 d。

数字经济能否赋能中国与RCEP国家出口持续时间?

数字经济不仅有助于提升经济运行效率和质量,而且有助于加强中国与RCEP国家经贸合作程度。构建数字经济发展水平的三级指标评价体系,测度中国数字经济发展的实际水平,采用2011—2021年面板数据检验了数字经济对中国与RCEP国家出口持续时间的影响,研究发现:第一,数字经济发展会显著增加中国与RCEP国家出口持续时间;第二,数字经济通过降低贸易成本、提升区域创新能力和增加贸易开放度渠道降低出口风险率,延长出口持续时间;第三,对于不同收入水平RCEP国家来说,当期与上一期数字经济发展会延长中国与中低收入和高收入RCEP国家的出口持续时间,但对中高收入RCEP国家的影响并不显著;第四,对于不同类型产品来说,数字经济发展均会延长中国与RCEP国家出口持续时间。数字经济发展对劳动密集型产品的出口持续时间影响较大,对初级产品的影响较小,说明随着产品附加值的提高,数字经济对中国与RCEP国家出口持续时间的影响逐渐增加。