The Influence of Bond Market Opening in Trade Field on RMB Internationalization Foreign Exchange Rate

In order to verify that the open bond market is the most direct choice to promote the internationalization of RMB,the empirical analysis method is used to analyze the impact of bond liberalization on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.Firstly,the data source processing method of empirical analysis is introduced.Then the dynamic panel data regression model and panel threshold model are built to verify the influence factors of RMB internationalization foreign exchange rate and the influence of debt market opening on RMB foreign exchange rate,respectively.The results show that the opening of the creditor's rights market has a significant positive promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate,and the development of the domestic creditor's rights market has a significant promoting effect on the internationalization of RMB foreign exchange rate.The study has a certain role in promoting the status of China's currency in the international community.

To Accomplish the Unaccomplished Reform： Lessons and Options of RMB Exchange Rate Reform

The exchange rate reform initiated on August 11,2015 is an important attempt by the PBoC to transform China's exchange rate regime from the "crawl-like arrangement" to a floating regime.However,after a three-day experiment,the PBoC abandoned the original goal of the reform.Since then,the central bank has implemented a new exchange rate-setting mechanism.Under this mechanism,the central parity of the renminbi(RMB) against the US dollar is decided by the arithmetic average of the RMB exchange rate that keeps the index of a currency basket unchanged over the past 24 hours and the previous day's closing price of USD/CNY.Due to the introduction of the index of a currency basket,additional uncertainty has been introduced into the determination of the RMB exchange rate,because of the uncertainty of the dollar index(USDX).As a result,to a certain extent,the one-way bet on the RMB expectations is weakened.However,the current exchange rate formation mechanism cannot reverse the trend of devaluation of the RMB,nor can it eliminate depreciation expectations.Meanwhile,it hinders the effectiveness of central bank's independent monetary policy based on the domestic economic fundamentals.And also,the "two-way float" created by the new price-setting mechanism is artificial and has led to significant losses of foreign exchange reserve.The paper explains how the new price-setting mechanism works,and identifies the important features of the mechanism and its pros and cons.The paper argues that despite some advantages,the new exchange rate regime as a soft peg regime is not sustainable and the PBoC should stop foreign exchange market intervention as soon as possible.We hope that the PBoC can learn the lessons from the failure of the "August 11 reform" and accomplish the unaccomplished reform in an urgent manner.

Influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income from the perspective of transmission asymmetry

Based on time series data of RMB exchange rate and urban-rural income, this paper makes an empirical study for the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income by utilizing rolling regression model through direct and indirect transmission mechanisms. According to the results, the transmission effect of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on urban-rural income has features of incompleteness and asymmetry. Moreover, RMB appreciation will help to reduce the urban-rural income gap. Therefore, this paper suggests that the Chinese economy should accelerate the course of transforming mode, adjusting structure and promoting development under the new normal. Meanwhile, reform of RMB exchange rate mechanism should be promoted, living standard of residents must be improved, and the urban-rural income gap should be reduced.

Employment and Wage Effects of RMB Exchange Rate for Manufacturing Sectors in China and the US

By creating a labor market dynamic general equilibrium model, this paper derives the pass-through mechanism of exchange rate's employment and wage effects,carries out an empirical study on the employment and wage effects of RMB exchange rate for manufacturing sectors in China and the United States based on ridge regression, and examines the role of industry characteristics in this process. Research findings suggest that: RMB depreciation will drive employment and wage growth for most of China's laborintensive manufacturing sectors, and RMB appreciation will increase employment for certain capital-and technology-intensive sectors; but RMB depreciation has insignificant employment and wage effects for most sectors in the US. Hence, in achieving the longterm stability of RMB exchange rate, China should take advantage of RMB appreciation's manufacturing upgrade effect and ensure the steady growth of manufacturing employment.The US should make breakthroughs in various links of its economic development in order to tackle unemployment, instead of blaming RMB exchange rate. In addition, the nature of business activities and trade union characteristic are both significant factors that lead to differences in inter-sector employment levels of Chinese and US manufacturing sectors.Technology characteristic and other monopolistic characteristics exert decisive effects on the difference of wage return for various sectors in China and the US.

Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?

With the rapid expansion of the RMB exchange rate’s floating range,the effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity price changes on China’s stock prices are likely to increase.This study uses both auto regressive distributed lag(ARDL)and nonlinear ARDL(NARDL)approaches to explore the symmetric and asymmetric effects of the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices on China’s stock prices.Our findings show that without considering the critical variable of global commodity prices,there is no cointegration relationship between the RMB exchange rate and China’s stock prices,and the coefficient of the RMB exchange rate is not statistically significant.However,when we introduce global commodity prices into the NARDL model,the result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative effect on China’s stock prices,that there indeed exists a long-run cointegration relationship among the RMB exchange rate,global commodity prices,and stock prices in the NARDL model,and that global commodity price changes have an asymmetric effect on China’s stock prices in the long run.Specifically,China’s stock prices are more sensitive to increases than decreases in global commodity prices.Thus,increases in global commodity prices cause China’s stock prices to decline sharply.In contrast,the same magnitude of decline in global commodity prices induces a smaller increase in China’s stock prices.

RMB Exchange Rate,Overseas Education,and High-Quality Economic Growth

China is transitioning its industrial structure from labor-and resource-intensive industries that previously contributed significantly to the country’s GDP growth to technology-intensive industries emphasizing a highly-skilled workforce and sustainability to achieve high-quality economic growth.This paper examines the impact of the RMB exchange rate on high-quality economic growth through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis and discusses the variable of overseas education to explore the mechanism of how the RMB exchange rate and overseas education jointly impact high-quality economic growth.The research sample includes the National Bureau of Statistics data on education from 1995 to 2015,the Bank for International Settlements(BIS)data on the RMB exchange rate,and the added value of China’s high-quality economic growth estimated based on the national economy data.An empirical analysis of theoretical expectations was conducted,finding that RMB appreciation could make a positive contribution to China’s high-quality economic growth;RMB exchange rate fluctuations would impact the relative cost of overseas education and overseas returnees could have a positive impact on domestic resource utilization efficiency and domestic capacity to make sci-tech innovations,thereby injecting vitality to high-quality economic growth.This study focuses on both the RMB exchange rate and the population studying abroad,providing additional observation dimensions to existing research.

A Study of Relationship between RMB Exchange Rate and Import-Export Trade Relations before and after Exchange Reform

Exchange rate, as a link between international markets, integrates the economies of all countries. In today's economic globalization, exchange rate plays an important role. It is one of the most effective ways to regulate the international economy, and also one of the most direct means. In this paper, based on the definition, classification and role of exchange rate, the impacts of RMB exchange rate on China's export trade after the "exchange rate reform" were studied, and the measures that China should take to deal with the impact of the continuous appreciation of RMB on imports and exports under the current environment were proposed. This paper hopes to further expand China's foreign trade.

Using fuzzy neural networks for RMB/USD real exchange rate forecasting

In order to aim at improving the forecasting performance of the RMB/USD exchange rate, this paper proposes a new architecture of fuzzy neural networks based on fuzzy logic, and the method of point differential, which guarantees not only the direction of weight correction, but also the needed precision for the BP algorithm. In applying genetic algorithms for optimal performance, this approach, in the forecasting of the RMB/USD real exchange rate from 1994 to 2000, obviously outperforms typical BP Neural Networks and exhibits a higher capacity in regard to nonlinear, time-variablility, and illegibility of the exchange rate.

Analysis on RMB Exchange Rate Policy

Based on this global environment, this essay will first present basic concepts of RMB exchange rate policy and its evolutionhistory, then discuss some important challenges from the global perspective that the Chinese government meets in terms of the increasinglyundervalued exchange rate, thirdly argue that China cannot take a substantial appreciation, Finally discuss whether China should take a gradualappreciation by comparing its advantages and disadvantages.

A Glimpse into a Potential Influencing Factor of China’s Exchange Rate: Social Financing Scale

The indicator of social financing scale(SFS)has become a new intermediate target for China’s socioeconomic regulation since 2011,which has a better tracking performance on important economic indicators such as CPI and is also the new intermediate target of monetary policy used by China’s central bank to replace M2 at present.So,is there an impact of the social financing scale on another important economic indicator,the RMB exchange rate?This paper conducted an OLS regression analysis of the time series data of social financing scale and the nominal effective exchange rate(NEER)of RMB for a total of 61 months from October 2016 to October 2021 and find that SFS has a significant positive impact on the exchange rate of RMB.This result means that the expansion of SFS will lead to the appreciation of RMB.In addition,the paper fills the research gap on the combination of SFS and RMB exchange rate,and suggests that mechanisms such as monetary policy or domestic interest rates may be responsible for this correlation at the theoretical level.

China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression:The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency

Instability in the worm dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the US Federal Reserve＇s near-zero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding RMB ＂internationalization ＂; that is, opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the US dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. However, despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls （reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates） to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating （appreciating） exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People＇s Bank of China should focus on keeping the yuan/dollar rate stable so as to encourage naturally high wage increases to help balance China ＂s international competitiveness. However, further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai pilot free trade zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.

人民币实际有效汇率变动与我国对“一带一路”国家OFDI的实证研究

通过构建包含汇率、出口和OFDI三种因素的一般均衡理论模型,分析汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响。理论分析表明,本国货币升值将抑制其出口,但是将促进其对外直接投资。同时采用考虑转口贸易因素的贸易权重法构建“一带一路”人民币实际有效汇率,以反映人民币在区域层面的币值变动。在此基础之上,使用时变参数的向量自回归模型实证分析沿线国家的人民币汇率变动对出口和OFDI的影响,并与总体进行对比。实证结果与理论分析相反,文章从人民币真实币值被高估、比较优势和疫情冲击对中国出口的叠加影响三个方面解释了人民币升值对出口的促进作用,同时从汇率预期和汇率波动两个方面解释了人民币升值对OFDI的抑制作用。此外,还对比分析了总体与沿线国家出口与OFDI的相互影响。最后给出文章的结论及建议。

“一带一路”背景下人民币跨境流通的OFDI效率提升效应

人民币跨境流通是中国跨国企业对外直接投资的载体,其流通水平对投资效率的影响机制值得研究。本文基准回归结果显示,人民币跨境流通能够提升中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的OFDI效率。进一步研究表明,人民币跨境流通对“一带一路”倡议提出后的中国OFDI效率有显著正向促进作用,对“一带”沿线国家、高制度质量国家和高经济发展水平国家的中国OFDI效率均有显著的正向影响;人民币跨境流通对中国OFDI效率影响的汇率传导机制成立,表现为负向弱化作用。中国应当强化与“一带一路”沿线国家金融服务基础设施建设合作,推动投融资便利化,加强制度合作,提升投资效率。

Copula-Based Risk Management Models for Multivariable RMB Exchange Rate in the Process of RMB Internationalization

This paper investigates the dependence of the exchange rate of onshore Renminbi(RMB)and offshore RMB against US dollar(i.e., CNY and CNH) based on copula models. Eleven different copulas were selected to construct multivariate distribution and estimate the value-at-risk for RMB exchange rate. Empirical results show that time-invariant Student-t copula is the best model to fit the sample data. The positive upper and lower dependence indicates that CNY and CNH series tend to move in the same direction. Moreover, the dependence between the two exchange rates is asymmetric,which means that traditional models, such as Pearson's correlation, are inappropriate to measure the correlations between these markets. The best fitted model is chosen to estimate the financial risk,which can help business practitioners and policymakers track risk evolution and make good decisions.

Structural Evolution of RMB Exchange Rate Reform: Historical Review, Experience and Prospect

The Renminbi(RMB)exchange rate regime reform has gone through three stages roughly once every decade since 1994.It is a structural evolution through the unification of dual exchange rates,increased fluctuations and central parity rate reform in response to the dynamic macro environment in China and abroad.This paper unpacks leading and supporting reforms for each stage and reviews the effects.The reform has developed historical experience in adopting progressive strategies,avoiding sharp exchange rate fluctuations in the near term,maintaining appropriate capital controls,and guaranteeing the reform through domestic structural reforms.Achieving a free-floating exchange rate will be the ultimate goal,but it will not be made easily in the short run.During the transitional period,it is recommended that an annual target zone for RMB's effective exchange rate be arranged for the CFETS currency basket,along with necessary capital controls.

The Political Cause of the Movement of RMB Exchange Rate： A Research Based on the Spillover Effects of US Political Cycle

Movement of the renminbi （RMB） exchange rate is not only affected by economic factors, but also by political factors home and aboard. This paper analyzes the transmission mechanism of political cycles on the RMB exchange rate first, and then sets up a ＂political cycle spillover effect model＂ followed by an empirical analysis. We find that： （1） the US political cycle has a direct effect on the RMB exchange rate in the short run, which is mainly transmitted by capital flows and China＇s exchange rate policy control; （2） the RMB exchange rate changes periodically in accordance with the US presidential election and midterm election cycle, with the appreciation ratio significantly lower in the first year of the election cycle, while significantly higher in the year after the midterm election; （3） The effect of the political cycle will not be affected by which party holds power, though it will be affected if the president and parliament are ruled by the same party. This paper not only extends the research of the influencing factors of the RMB exchange rate to the political field, but also sets up a use theoretical model to analyze the impact of political issues on the RMB exchange rate, providing a new perspective to fully understand the external environment of RMB exchange rate reform.