Effects of surface heating on precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau and its eastern margin

The high terrain of the Tibetan Plateau(TP)has a very important impact on the weather and climate of China,East Asia,South Asia,and even the Northern Hemisphere.However,in recent years,the reasons for the decrease in precipitation in the southeastern edge of the plateau have resulted in cutting-edge research regarding the impact of the TP and its surrounding areas on downstream weather and climate.In this study,the spatial and temporal distribution of surface heat flux and precipitation were analyzed from 1998 to 2022,and the possible mechanism of the decrease of precipitation in the eastern edge of the plateau is explored.The main conclusions are as follows:The annual average sensible heat flux in the TP and its east side is positive,with an average of 33.73 W/m^(2).The annual average latent heat flux is positive,with an average of 42.71 W/m^(2).Precipitation has a similar annual average and seasonal distribution,with modest amounts in the northwest and substantial amounts in the southeast.The average annual accumulated precipitation is 670.69 mm.The first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function(EOF)shows that sensible heat flux decreases first,then increases,and then finally decreases during 1998–2022.The modes show the opposite trend in middle part of the plateau.The latent heat flux initially decreases,then increases,and finally decreases in the western plateau and near Sichuan Basin.The mode,however,displays the opposite tendency throughout the rest of the region.The precipitation in the north and south sides of the plateau has decreased since 2013,which is consistent with the changing trend of sensible heat flux.In the rest of the region,the change trend is not obvious.The sensible heat of the main body of the plateau and its east side and Sichuan Basin is negatively correlated with precipitation,that is,when sensible heat flux of the main body of the plateau and its east side and Sichuan Basin is more(less),local precipitation is less(more).The latent heat of the main body of the plateau and its east side,Sichuan Basin is positively correlated with precipitation,indicating that when latent heat flux of the main body of the plateau and its east side,Sichuan Basin is more(less),local precipitation is more(less).

Impact of Surface Sensible Heating over the Tibetan Plateau on the Western Pacific Subtropical High: A Land–Air–Sea Interaction Perspective

The impact of surface sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau （SHTP） on the western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） with and without air-sea interaction was investigated in this study. Data analysis indicated that SHTP acts as a relatively independent factor in modulating the WPSH anomaly compared with ENSO events. Stronger spring SHTP is usually fol- lowed by an enhanced and westward extension of the WPSH in summer, and vice versa. Numerical experiments using both an AGCM and a CGCM confirmed that SHTP influences the large-scale circulation anomaly over the Pacific, which features a barotropic anticyclonic response over the northwestern Pacific and a cyclonic response to the south. Owing to different background circulation in spring and summer, such a response facilitates a subdued WPSH in spring but an en- hanced WPSH in summer. Moreover, the CGCM results showed that the equatorial low-level westerly at the south edge of the cyclonic anomaly brings about a warm SST anomaly （SSTA） in the equatorial central Pacific via surface warm advection. Subsequently, an atmospheric Rossby wave is stimulated to the northwest of the warm SSTA, which in turn enhances the at- mospheric dipole anomalies over the western Pacific. Therefore, the air-sea feedbacks involved tend to reinforce the effect of SHTP on the WPSH anomaly, and the role of SHTP on general circulation needs to be considered in a land-air-sea interaction framework.

Parameterization of Heat Fluxes at Heterogeneous Surfaces by Integrating Satellite Measurements with Surface Layer and Atmospheric Boundary Layer Observations

The regional heat flux exchange between heterogeneous landscapes and the nearby surface layer （SL） is a key issue in the study of land-atmosphere interactions over arid areas such as the Heihe River basin in northwestern China and in high elevation areas such as the Tibetan Plateau. Based on analysis of the land surface heterogeneity and its effects on the overlying air flow, the use of SL observations, atmospheric boundary layer （ABL） observations, and satellite remote sensing （RS） measurements along with three parameterization methodologies （here, termed as the RS, tile, and blending approaches） have been proposed to estimate the surface heat flux densities over heterogeneous landscapes. The tile and blending approaches have also been implemented during HEIhe basin Field Experiment （HEIFE）, the Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period （CEOP） Asia-Australia Monsoon Project on the Tibetan Plateau （CAMP/Tibet）, the Arid Environment Comprehensive Monitoring Plan ＇95 （AECMP＇95）, and the DunHuang Experiment （DHEX）. The results showed that these two proposed parameterization methodologies can be accurately used over heterogeneous land surfaces.

The Regional Surface Heating Field over the Heterogeneous Landscape of the Tibetan Plateau Using MODIS and In Situ Data

In this study, a parameterization scheme based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer （MODIS） data and in-situ data was tested for deriving the regional surface heating field over a heterogeneous landscape. As a case study, the methodology was applied to the whole Tibetan Plateau （TP） area. Four images of MODIS data （i.e., 30 January 2007, 15 April 2007, 1 August 2007, and 25 October 2007） were used in this study for comparison among winter, spring, summer, and autumn. The results were validated using the observations measured at the stations of the Tibetan Observation and Research Platform （TORP）. The results show the following： （1） The derived surface heating field for the TP area was in good accord with the land-surface status, showing a wide range of values due to the strong contrast of surface features in the area. （2） The derived surface heating field for the TP was very close to the field measurements （observations）. The APD （absolute percent difference） between the derived results and the field observations was 〈10%. （3） The mean surface heating field over the TP increased from January to April to August, and decreased in October. Therefore, the reasonable regional distribution of the surface heating field over a heterogeneous landscape can be obtained using this methodology. The limitations and further improvement of this method are also discussed.

Variations in Surface Urban Heat Island and Urban Cool Island Intensity:A Review Across Major Climate Zones

The climate has an impact on the urban thermal environment,and the magnitude of the surface urban heat island(SUHI)and urban cool island(UCI)vary across the world’s climatic zones.This literature review investigated:1)the variations in the SUHI and UCI intensity under different climatic backgrounds,and 2)the effect of vegetation types,landscape composition,urban configuration,and water bodies on the SUHI.The SUHI had a higher intensity in tropical(Af(tropical rainy climate,Köppen climate classification),Am(tropical monsoon climate),subtropical(Cfa,subtropical humid climate),and humid continental(Dwa,semi-humid and semi-arid monsoon climate)climate zones.The magnitude of the UCI was low compared to the SUHI across the climate zones.The cool and dry Mediterranean(Cfb,temperate marine climate;Csb,temperate mediterranean climate;Cfa)and tropical climate(Af)areas had a higher cooling intensity.For cities with a desert climate(BWh,tropical desert climate),a reverse pattern was found.The difference in the SUHI in the night-time was greater than in the daytime for most cities across the climate zones.The extent of green space cooling was related to city size,the adjacent impervious surface,and the local climate.Additionally,the composition of urban landscape elements was more significant than their configuration for sustaining the urban thermal environment.Finally,we identified future research gaps for possible solutions in the context of sustainable urbanization in different climate zones.

Influence of Vegetation on the Climate

With the growth of the cities, the environment ended up being altered and, among others, the natural cover and native vegetation were replaced by a built environment, which contributed to deep environmental disturbances. One of them, climate change, has attracted attention in recent decades, and can no longer be ignored without greatly compromising the quality of life of human beings. From the scenario in which we are inserted, it became necessary to investigate which factors significantly influence climate change in urban centers. The Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro was the center of this study. From this scenario, the influence of green and wooded areas on urban thermal behavior was analyzed. In this sense, three types of soil surface exposure were studied experimentally during four periods of the year.

Analyses on the tectonic thermal evolution and influence factors in the deep-water Qiongdongnan Basin

To reveal the tectonic thermal evolution and influence factors on the present heat flow distribution, based on 154 heat flow data, the present heat flow distribution features of the main tectonic units are first analyzed in detail, then the tectonic thermal evolution histories of 20 profiles are reestablished crossing the main deep-water sags with a structural, thermal and sedimentary coupled numerical model. On the basis of the present geothermal features, the Qiongdongnan Basin could be divided into three regions： the northern shelf and upper slope region with a heat flow of 50-70 mW/m^2, most of the central depression zone of 70-85 mW/m^2, and a NE trending high heat flow zone of 85-105 mW/m^2 lying in the eastern basin. Numerical modeling shows that during the syn-rift phase, the heat flow increases generally with time, and is higher in basement high area than in its adjacent sags. At the end of the syn-rift phase, the heat flow in the deep-water sags was in a range of 60-85 mW/m^2, while in the basement high area, it was in a range of 75-100 mW/m^2. During the post-rift phase, the heat flow decreased gradually, and tended to be more uniform in the basement highs and sags. However, an extensive magmatism, which equivalently happened at around 5 Ma, has greatly increased the heat flow values, and the relict heat still contributes about 10-25 mW/m^2to the present surface heat flow in the central depression zone and the southern uplift zone. Further analyses suggested that the present high heat flow in the deep-water Qiongdongnan Basin is a combined result of the thermal anomaly in the upper mantle, highly thinning of the lithosphere, and the recent extensive magma-tism. Other secondary factors might have affected the heat flow distribution features in some local regions. These factors include basement and seafloor topography, sediment heat generation, thermal blanketing, local magmatic injecting and hydrothermal activities related to faulting and overpressure.

A Modeling Study of Land Surface Process Impacts on Inland Behavior of Typhoon Rananim(2004)

On 12 August 2004, Typhoon Rananim （0414） moved inland over China and stagnated over the Poyang Lake area, resulting in torrential rainfall and severe geologic hazards. The Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting （ARW-WRF） model and its different land surface models （LSMs） were employed to study the impacts of land surface process on the inland behavior of Typhoon Rananim. Results show that simulations, coupled with LSMs or not, have no significant differences in predicting typhoon track, intensity, and largescale circulation. However, the simulations of mesoscale structure, rainfall rate, and rainfall distribution of typhoon are more reasonable with LSMs than without LSMs. Although differences are slight among LSMs, NOAH is better than the others. Based on outputs using the NOAH scheme, the interaction between land surtace and typhoon was explored in this study. Notably, typhoon rainfall and cloud cover can cool land surface, but rainfall expands the underlying saturated wetland area, which exacerbates the asymmetric distribution of surface heat fluxes. Accordingly, an energy frontal zone may form in the lower troposphere that enhances ascending motion and local convection, resulting in heavier rainfall. Moreover, the expanded underlying saturated wetlands provide plentiful moisture and unstable energy for the maintenance of Typhoon Rananim and increased rainfall in return.

Seasonal Variability of the Yellow Sea/East China Sea Surface Fluxes and Thermohaline Structure

We use the U.S. Navy's Master Oceanographic Observation Data Set (MOODS) forthe Yellow Sea/ East China Sea (YES) to investigate the climatological water mass features and theseasonal and non-seasonal variabilities of the thermohaline structure, and use the ComprehensiveOcean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) from 1945 to 1989 to investigate the linkage between the fluxes(momentum, heat, and moisture) across the air-ocean interface and the formation of the water massfeatures. After examining the major current systems and considering the local bathymetry and watermass properties, we divide YES into five regions: East China Sea (ECS) shelf, Yellow Sea (YS) Basin,Cheju bifurcation (CB) zone, Taiwan Warm Current (TWC) region, Kuroshio Current (KC) region. Thelong term mean surface heat balance corresponds to a heat loss of 30 W m^(-2) in the ESC and CBregions, a heat loss of 65 W m^(-2) in the KC and TWC regions, and a heat gain of 15 W m^(-2) in theYS region. The surface freshwater balance is defined by precipitation minus evaporation. The annualwater loss from the surface for the five subareas ranges from 1.8 to 4 cm month^(-1). The freshwater loss from the surface should be compensated for from the river run-off. The entire watercolumn of the shelf region (ECS, YS, and CB) undergoes an evident seasonal thermal cycle withmaximum values of temperature during summer and maximum mixed layer depths during winter. However,only the surface waters of the TWC and KC regions exhibit a seasonal thermal cycle.. We also foundtwo different relations between surface salinity and the Yangtze River run-off, namely, out-of-phasein the East China Sea shelf and in-phase in the Yellow Sea. This may confirm an earlier study thatthe summer fresh water discharge from the Yangtze River forms a relatively shallow, low salinityplume-like structure extending offshore on average towards the northeast.

Anomalies in the Tropics Associated with the Heavy Rainfall in East Asia during the Summer of 1998

The summer of 1998 was characterised by a severe flood in East Asia. The possible linkages were examined among the anomalies in the tropics that may be associated with the severe flood. The anomalies of 1998 are obtained by removing the climatology, which is the average of the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts) Re—Analysis (ERA) data over 15 years from 1979 to 1993, from the corresponding fields of 1998, which are obtained from the ECMWF operational analyses. In comparison to the results of Nitta (1990), it was found that there are considerable similarities in the atmospheric circulation anomalies between the summers of 1998 and 1988, in the tropics as well as in middle—high latitudes. It was shown that the atmospheric convection is slightly suppressed over the tropical western Pacific. In general, the suppressed convection corresponds to a negative anomaly of SST in the warm pool region. In the summers of 1998 and 1988, however, there are positive anomalies of SSTs in the tropical western Pacific, corresponding to the suppressed convection over there. This slightly suppressed convection may not provide a viable forcing mechanism for the severe flood in East Asia. It was postulated that the zonal wind anomalies in the tropics, in addition to the atmospheric convection over the tropical western Pacific, influence the position and intensity of the North Pacific subtropical high. In both summers of 1998 and 1988, while the stronger convection occurs over the warmer tropical Indian Ocean, the suppressed convection corresponds to the positive anomalies of SSTs in the tropical western Pacific. A possible explanation was given for the broken relationship between SSTs and OLR, (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) by analyzing the large—scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the tropics. The heat fluxes at the surface in the warm pool of the tropical western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean were also examined by using the ERA–15 data. To avoid the inconsistency between the ERA–15 and the operational analyses, the anomalies of the heat fluxes at the surface in the warm pool region in the summer of 1988, instead of the summer of 1998, were examined. The anomalous latent heat flux and the net solar radiation flux are the main reason for the positive anomalies of SSTs in the tropical Indian Ocean and in the tropical western Pacific, respectively. The suppressed convection over the tropical western Pacific allows more solar radiation fluxes downward at the surface, which would increase the SSTs. Key words Anomalies in the tropics - Comparison between 1998 and 1988 - Surface heat flux This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 49605065) and “National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 part 1.Part of this study was carried out during the visit of the author to the Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, which was supported by the Royal Society. The author would like to thank Drs. Buwen Dong and Paul Berrisford in the Department, and Dr. Xu Li, who was seconded to ECMWF from Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, for their help. All the figures in this paper were drawn by using the Visualization and Computation System (VCS) designed by PCMDI (Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison).

Observation-based Estimation of Aerosol-induced Reduction of Planetary Boundary Layer Height

Radiative aerosols are known to influence the surface energy budget and hence the evolution of the planetary boundary layer. In this study, we develop a method to estimate the aerosol-induced reduction in the planetary boundary layer height （PBLH） based on two years of ground-based measurements at a site, the Station for Observing Regional Processes of the Earth System （SORPES）, at Nanjing University, China, and radiosonde data from the meteorological station of Nanjing. The observations show that increased aerosol loads lead to a mean decrease of 67.1 W m-2 for downward shortwave radiation （DSR） and a mean increase of 19.2 W m-2 for downward longwave radiation （DLR）, as well as a mean decrease of 9.6 W m-2 for the surface sensible heat flux （SHF） in the daytime. The relative variations of DSR, DLR and SHF are shown as a function of the increment of column mass concentration of particulate matter （PM2.5）. High aerosol loading can significantly increase the atmospheric stability in the planetary boundary layer during both daytime and nighttime. Based on the statistical relationship between SHF and PM2.5 column mass concentrations, the SHF under clean atmospheric conditions （same as the background days） is derived. In this case, the derived SHF, together with observed SHF, are then used to estimate changes in the PBLH related to aerosols. Our results suggest that the PBLH decreases more rapidly with increasing aerosol loading at high aerosol loading. When the daytime mean column mass concentration of PM2.5 reaches 200 mg m-2, the decrease in the PBLH at 1600 LST （local standard time） is about 450 m.

Effect of Stokes drift on upper ocean mixing

Stokes drift is the main source of vertical vorticity in the ocean mixed layer. In the ways of Coriolis - Stokes forcing and Langmuir circulations, Stokes drift can substantially affect the whole mixed layer. A modified Mellor-Yamada 2. 5 level turbulence closure model is used to parameterize its effect on upper ocean mixing conventionally. Results show that comparing surface heating with wave breaking, Stokes drift plays the most important role in the entire ocean mixed layer, especially in the subsurface layer. As expected, Stokes drift elevates both the dissipation rate and the turbulence energy in the upper ocean mixing. Also, ilffluence of the surface heating, wave breaking and wind speed on Stokes drift is investigated respectively. Research shows that it is significant and important to assessing the Stokes drift into ocean mixed layer studying. The laboratory observations are supporting numerical experiments quantitatively.

A Diagnostic Analysis on the Effect of the Residual Layer in Convective Boundary Layer Development near Mongolia Using 20th Century Reanalysis Data

Although the residual layer has already been noted in the classical diurnal cycle of the atmospheric boundary layer, its effect on the development of the convective boundary layer has not been well studied. In this study, based on 3-hourly 20th century reanalysis data, the residual layer is considered as a common layer capping the convective boundary layer. It is identified dally by investigating the development of the convective boundary layer. The region of interest is bounded by （30^-60~N, 80^-120~E）, where a residual layer deeper than 2000 m has been reported using radiosondes. The lapse rate and wind shear within the residual layer are compared with the surface sensible heat flux by investigating their climatological means, interannual variations and daily variations. The lapse rate of the residual layer and the convective boundary layer depth correspond well in their seasonal variations and climatological mean patterns. On the interannual scale, the correlation coefficient between their regional averaged （40°-50°N, 90°-110°E） variations is higher than that between the surface sensible heat flux and convective boundary layer depth. On the daily scale, the correlation between the lapse rate and the convective boundary layer depth in most months is still statistically significant during 1970-2012. Therefore, we suggest that the existence of a deep neutral residual layer is crucial to the formation of a deep convective boundary layer near the Mongolian regions.

Relationship between SSTA in the northwestern Pacific and winter climate anomaly in China

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the domain from the northwest of the Pacific to China seas (NWP-CS) and climate (precipitation and surface temperature) anomaly in winters over east of Chinese Mainland (ECM) are investigated with composite analysis. The results suggest that (1) SSTA in NWP-CS usually appears as 'seesaw' pattern, i.e., sign of SSTA in the northwest of the Philippines is positive (negative) while in the southeast it is negative (positive), defined as SSTA 'seesaw' positive (negative) pattern. When SSTA 'seesaw' positive (negative) pattern appears, the surface temperature in ECM is higher (lower) than the normal winters but the precipitation anomaly is not distinct ; (2) there are two anomalous anticyclones (cyclones) locating in the northwest Pacific and east of the Philippines at 850 hPa level and an anomalous anti-Hadley (Hadley) circulation, which descends (ascends) south of 18oN, ascends (descends) north of 18oN; (3) heat flux anomaly from ocean into atmosphere is weaker (stronger) in the northwest of the Philippines but stronger (weaker) in the southeast of the Philippines than the normal winters, because the weaker (stronger) northerly prevails in the northwest of the Philippines and stronger (weaker) northeaster in the southeast of the Philippines induced by anomalous anticyclones (cyclones).

Connections between Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux and Regional Summer Precipitation over China

Using the observed monthly precipitation and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis surface ?ux data from 1951–2000, the connections between the seasonal SSHNF (Surface Sensible Heat Net Flux) over the Asian continent and the regional summer precipitation of China were examined. The patterns of collective and individual correlations were identi?ed. The results indicate that the response of the regional summer precipitation of China to the seasonal SSHNF over the study area varies according to region and season. The interannual variability of summer precipitation anomalies over Xinjiang, the northernmost Northeast China, and the North China Plain are most sensitive to the anomaly of the seasonal SSHNF. There are signi?cant collective correlations between the interannual anomalies of the seasonal SSHNF and summer precipitation over these regions. In contrast, the Southeast Tibetan Plateau, Huaihe River Valley, and surrounding areas exhibit the least signi?cant correlation. Signi?cant individual correlations exist between the summer precipitation over the southernmost Northeast China, East Inner Mongolia, South of the Yangtze River and South China and the seasonal SSHNF in certain seasons over the following areas: near Lake Baikal and Lake Balkhash, near Da Hinggan Mountains and Xiao Hinggan Mountains, as well as the Tibetan Plateau.

Surface latent heat flux anomalies preceding inland earthquakes in China

Using data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction （NCEP）, the paper analyzed the surface latent heat flux （SLHF） variations for five inland earthquakes occurred in some lake area, moist area and arid area of China during recent years. We used the SLHF daily and monthly data to differentiate the global and seasonal variability from the transient local anomalies. The temporal scale of the observed variations is 1-2 months before and after the earthquakes, and spatial scale is about 10°×10°. The result suggests that the SLHFs adjacent the epicenters all are anomalous high value （〉μ＋2σ） 8-30 days before the shocks as compared with past several years of data. Different from the abnormal meteorological phenomenon, the distribution of the anomalies was isolated and local, which usually occurred in the epicenter and its adjacent area, or along the fault lines. The increase of SLHF was tightly related with the season which the earthquake occurs in; the maximal （125 W/m^2, Pu＇er earthquake） and minimal （25 W/m^2, Gaize earthquake） anomalies were in summer and winter, respectively. The abundant surface water and groundwater in the epicenter and its adjacent region can provide necessary condition for the change of SLHF. To further confirm the reliability of SLHF anomaly, it is necessary to explore its physical mechanism in depth by more earthquake cases.

Natural convection of nanofluid over vertical plate embedded in porous medium: prescribed surface heat flux

The aim of the present paper is to analyze the natural convection heat and mass transfer of nanofluids over a vertical plate embedded in a saturated Darcy porous medium subjected to surface heat and nanoparticle fluxes. To carry out the numerical solution, two steps are performed. The governing partial differential equations are firstly simplified into a set of highly coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations by appropriate similarity variables, and then numerically solved by the finite difference method. The obtained similarity solution depends on four non-dimensional parameters, i.e., the Brownian motion parameter （Nb）, the buoyancy ratio （Nr）, the thermophoresis parameter （Nt）, and the Lewis number （Le）. The variations of the reduced Nusselt number and the reduced Sherwood number with Nb and Nt for various values of Le and Nr are discussed in detail. Simulation results depict that the increase in Nb, Nt, or Nr decreases the reduced Nusselt number. An increase in the Lewis number increases both of the reduced Nusselt number and the Sherwood number. The results also reveal that the nanoparticle concentration boundary layer thickness is much thinner than those of the thermal and hydrodynamic boundary layers.

Autumn Snow Cover Variability over Northern Eurasia and Roles of Atmospheric Circulation

This study analyzes the variability of northern Eurasian snow cover（SC） in autumn and the impacts of atmospheric circulation changes. The region of large SC variability displays a southward shift from September to November, following the seasonal progression of the transition zones of surface air temperature（SAT）. The dominant pattern of SC variability in September and October features a zonal distribution, and that in November displays an obvious west-east contrast. Surface air cooling and snowfall increase are two factors for larger SC. The relative contribution of SAT and snowfall changes to SC, however, varies with the region and depends upon the season. The downward longwave radiation and atmospheric heat advection play important roles in SAT changes. Anomalous convergence of water vapor flux contributes to enhanced snowfall.The changes in downward longwave radiation are associated with those in atmospheric water content and column thickness.Changes in snowfall and the transport of atmospheric moisture determine the atmospheric moisture content in September and October, and the snowfall appears to be a main factor for atmospheric moisture change in November. These results indicate that atmospheric circulation changes play an important role in snow variability over northern Eurasia in autumn. Overall, the coupling between autumn Eurasian snow and atmospheric circulation may not be driven by external forcing.

Predicting Surface Urban Heat Island in Meihekou City, China: A Combination Method of Monte Carlo and Random Forest

Given the rapid urbanization worldwide, Urban Heat Island(UHI) effect has been a severe issue limiting urban sustainability in both large and small cities. In order to study the spatial pattern of Surface urban heat island(SUHI) in China’s Meihekou City, a combination method of Monte Carlo and Random Forest Regression(MC-RFR) is developed to construct the relationship between landscape pattern indices and Land Surface Temperature(LST). In this method, Monte Carlo acceptance-rejection sampling was added to the bootstrap layer of RFR to ensure the sensitivity of RFR to outliners of SUHI effect. The SHUI in 2030 was predicted by using this MC-RFR and the modeled future landscape pattern by Cellular Automata and Markov combination model(CA-Markov). Results reveal that forestland can greatly alleviate the impact of SUHI effect, while reasonable construction of urban land can also slow down the rising trend of SUHI. MC-RFR performs better for characterizing the relationship between landscape pattern and LST than single RFR or Linear Regression model. By 2030, the overall SUHI effect of Meihekou will be greatly enhanced, and the center of urban development will gradually shift to the central and western regions of the city. We suggest that urban designer and managers should concentrate vegetation and disperse built-up land to weaken the SUHI in the construction of new urban areas for its sustainability.

Impacts of SST and SST Anomalies on Low-Frequency Oscillation in the Tropical Atmosphere

Considering the multiscale character of LFO effects of SST on LFO in the tropical atmosphere （low-frequency oscillation） in the tropical atmosphere, the are discussed by using an absolute ageostrophic, baroclinic model. Here, SST effects include sea surface heating and forcing of SST anomalies （SSTAs）. Studies of the influences of sea surface heating on LFO frequency and stability show that sea surface heating can slow the speed of waves and lower their frequency when SST is comparatively low; while higher SST leads to unstable waves and less periods of LFO. Since the impact of a SSTA on ultra-long waves is more evident than that on kilometer-scale waves, long-wave approximation is used when we continue to study the effect of SSTAs. Results indicate that SSTAs can lead to a longer period of LFO, and make waves unstable. In other words, positive （negative） SSTAs can make waves decay （grow）.