Effect of aggregation interval on vehicular traffic flow heteroscedasticity

The effect of the aggregation interval on vehicular traffic flow heteroscedasticity is investigated using real-world traffic flow data collected from the motorway system in the United Kingdom. 30 traffic flow series are generated using 30 aggregation intervals ranging from 1 to 30 min at 1 min increment, and autoregressive integrated moving average （AR/MA） models are constructed and applied in these series, generating 30 residual series. Through applying the portmanteau Q-test and the Lagrange multiplier （LM） test in the residual series from the ARIMA models, the heteroscedasticity in traffic flow series is investigated. Empirical results show that traffic flow is heteroscedastJc across these selected aggregation intervals, and longer aggregation intervals tend to cancel out the noise in the traffic flow data and hence reduce the heteroscedasticity in traffic flow series. The above findings can be utilized in the development of reliable and robust traffic management and control systems.

Effects of Multicollinearity on Type I Error of Some Methods of Detecting Heteroscedasticity in Linear Regression Model

Heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity are serious problems when they exist in econometrics data. These problems exist as a result of violating the assumptions of equal variance between the error terms and that of independence between the explanatory variables of the model. With these assumption violations, Ordinary Least Square Estimator (OLS) will not give best linear unbiased, efficient and consistent estimator. In practice, there are several structures of heteroscedasticity and several methods of heteroscedasticity detection. For better estimation result, best heteroscedasticity detection methods must be determined for any structure of heteroscedasticity in the presence of multicollinearity between the explanatory variables of the model. In this paper we examine the effects of multicollinearity on type I error rates of some methods of heteroscedasticity detection in linear regression model in other to determine the best method of heteroscedasticity detection to use when both problems exist in the model. Nine heteroscedasticity detection methods were considered with seven heteroscedasticity structures. Simulation study was done via a Monte Carlo experiment on a multiple linear regression model with 3 explanatory variables. This experiment was conducted 1000 times with linear model parameters of β0 = 4 , β1 = 0.4 , β2= 1.5 and β3 = 3.6. Five (5) levels of mulicollinearity are with seven (7) different sample sizes. The method’s performances were compared with the aids of set confidence interval (C.I.) criterion. Results showed that whenever multicollinearity exists in the model with any forms of heteroscedasticity structures, Breusch-Godfrey (BG) test is the best method to determine the existence of heteroscedasticity at all chosen levels of significance.

Comparison of the Length of Stay and Medical Expenditures among Japanese Hospitals for Type 2 Diabetes Treatments: The Box-Cox Transformation Model under Heteroscedasticity

In this paper, we analyzed length of stay (LOS) in hospitals and medical expenditures for type 2 diabetes patients. LOS was analyzed by the power Box-Cox transformation model when variances differed among hospitals. We proposed a new test and consistent estimator. We rejected the ho-moscedasticity of variances among hospitals, and then analyzed the LOS of 12,666 type 2 diabetes patients hospitalized for regular medical treatments collected from 60 general hospitals in Japan. The variables found to affect LOS were age, number of comorbidities and complications, introduced by another hospital, one-week hospitalization, 2010 revision, specific-hospitalization-period (SHP), and principal diseases E11.5, E11.6 and E11.7. There were surprisingly large differences in ALOS among hospitals even after eliminating the influence of characteristics and conditions of patients. We then analyzed daily medical expenditure (DME) by the ordinary least squares methods. The variables that affected DME were LOS, number of comorbidities and complications, acute hospitalization, hospital’s own outpatient, season, introduced by another hospital, one-week hospitalization, 2010 revision, SHP, time trend, and principal diseases E11.2, E11.4 and E117. The DME did not decrease after the SHP. After eliminating the influences of characteristics and conditions of patients, the differences among hospitals were relatively small, 12% of the overall average. LOS is the main determinant of medical expenditures, and new incentives to reduce LOS are needed to control Japanese medical expenditures. Since at least 99% of patients require medical care after leaving the hospital, systems that take proper care of patients for long periods of time after hospitalization are absolutely necessary for efficient treatment of diabetes.

APPROXIMATE POWER OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY TEST IN NONLINEAR MODELS WITH ARIMA（0,1,0） ERRORS

This paper presents an approach for estimating power of the score test, based on an asymptotic approximation to the power of the score test under contiguous alternatives. The method is applied to the problem of power calculations for the score test of heteroscedasticity in European rabbit data （Ratkowsky, 1983）. Simulation studies are presented which indicate that the asymptotic approximation to the finite-sample situation is good over a wide range of parameter configurations.

Testing heteroscedasticity in nonparametric regression models based on residual analysis

The importance of detecting heteroscedasticity in regression analysis is widely recognized because efficient inference for the regression function requires that heteroscedasticity should be taken into account. In this paper, a simple test for heteroscedasticity is proposed in nonparametric regression based on residual analysis. Furthermore, some simulations with a comparison with Dette and Munk＇s method are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed test. The results demonstrate that the method in this paper performs quite satisfactorily and is much more powerful than Dette and Munk＇s method in some cases.

TESTING OF CORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY IN NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH DBL(p,q,1) RANDOM ERRORS

Chaos theory has taught us that a system which has both nonlinearity and random input will most likely produce irregular data. If random errors are irregular data, then random error process will raise nonlinearity （Kantz and Schreiber （1997））. Tsai （1986） introduced a composite test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in linear models with AR（1） errors. Liu （2003） introduced a composite test for correlation and heteroscedasticity in nonlinear models with DBL（p, 0, 1） errors. Therefore, the important problems in regression model axe detections of bilinearity, correlation and heteroscedasticity. In this article, the authors discuss more general case of nonlinear models with DBL（p, q, 1） random errors by score test. Several statistics for the test of bilinearity, correlation, and heteroscedasticity are obtained, and expressed in simple matrix formulas. The results of regression models with linear errors are extended to those with bilinear errors. The simulation study is carried out to investigate the powers of the test statistics. All results of this article extend and develop results of Tsai （1986）, Wei, et al （1995）, and Liu, et al （2003）.

Heteroscedasticity check in nonlinear semiparametric models based on nonparametric variance function

The assumption of homoscedasticity has received much attention in classical analysis of regression. Heteroscedasticity tests have been well studied in parametric and nonparametric regressions. The aim of this paper is to present a test of heteroscedasticity for nonlinear semiparametric regression models with nonparametric variance function. The validity of the proposed test is illustrated by two simulated examples and a real data example.

Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Streamflow Process: Paradox or Reality?

The various physical mechanisms governing the dynamics of streamflow processes act on a seemingly wide range of temporal and spatial scales;almost all the mechanisms involved present some degree of nonlinearity. Against the backdrop of these issues, in this paper, attempt was made to critically look at the subject of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) or volatility of streamflow processes, a form of nonlinear phenomena. Towards this end, streamflow data (both daily and monthly) of the River Benue, Nigeria were used for the study. Results obtained from the analyses indicate that the existence of conditional heteroscedasticity in streamflow processes is no paradox. Too, ARCH effect is caused by seasonal variation in the variance for monthly flows and could partly explain same in the daily streamflow. It was also evident that the traditional seasonal Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models are inadequate in describing ARCH effect in daily streamflow process though, robust for monthly streamflow;and can be removed if proper deseasonalisation pre-processing was done. Considering the findings, the potential for a hybrid Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH)type models should be further explored and probably embraced for modelling daily streamflow regime in view of the relevance of statistical modelling in hydrology.

Investigating Performances of Some Statistical Tests for Heteroscedasticity Assumption in Generalized Linear Model: A Monte Carlo Simulations Study

In a linear regression model, testing for uniformity of the variance of the residuals is a significant integral part of statistical analysis. This is a crucial assumption that requires statistical confirmation via the use of some statistical tests mostly before carrying out the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique. Many academic researchers have published series of papers (articles) on some tests for detecting variance heterogeneity assumption in multiple linear regression models. So many comparisons on these tests have been made using various statistical techniques like biases, error rates as well as powers. Aside comparisons, modifications of some of these statistical tests for detecting variance heterogeneity have been reported in some literatures in recent years. In a multiple linear regression situation, much work has not been done on comparing some selected statistical tests for homoscedasticity assumption when linear, quadratic, square root, and exponential forms of heteroscedasticity are injected into the residuals. As a result of this fact, the present study intends to work extensively on all these areas of interest with a view to filling the gap. The paper aims at providing a comprehensive comparative analysis of asymptotic behaviour of some selected statistical tests for homoscedasticity assumption in order to hunt for the best statistical test for detecting heteroscedasticity in a multiple linear regression scenario with varying variances and levels of significance. In the literature, several tests for homoscedasticity are available but only nine: Breusch-Godfrey test, studentized Breusch-Pagan test, White’s test, Nonconstant Variance Score test, Park test, Spearman Rank, Glejser test, Goldfeld-Quandt test, Harrison-McCabe test were considered for this study;this is with a view to examining, by Monte Carlo simulations, their asymptotic behaviours. However, four different forms of heteroscedastic structures: exponential and linear (generalize of square-root and quadratic structures) were injected into the residual part of the multiple linear regression models at different categories of sample sizes: 30, 50, 100, 200, 500 and 1000. Evaluations of the performances were done within R environment. Among other findings, our investigations revealed that Glejser and Park tests returned the best test to employ to check for heteroscedasticity in EHS and LHS respectively also White and Harrison-McCabe tests returned the best test to employ to check for homoscedasticity in EHS and LHS respectively for sample size less than 50.

Bayesian Estimation and Model Selection for the Spatiotemporal Autoregressive Model with Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Errors

The spatial and spatiotemporal autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity(STARCH) models receive increasing attention. In this paper, we introduce a spatiotemporal autoregressive(STAR) model with STARCH errors, which can capture the spatiotemporal dependence in mean and variance simultaneously. The Bayesian estimation and model selection are considered for our model. By Monte Carlo simulations, it is shown that the Bayesian estimator performs better than the corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator, and the Bayesian model selection can select out the true model in most times. Finally, two empirical examples are given to illustrate the superiority of our models in fitting those data.

Testing heteroscedasticity by wavelets in a nonparametric regression model

In the nonparametric regression models, a homoscedastic structure is usually assumed. However, the homoscedasticity cannot be guaranteed a priori. Hence, testing the heteroscedasticity is needed. In this paper we propose a consistent nonparametric test for heteroscedasticity, based on wavelets. The empirical wavelet coefficients of the conditional variance in a regression model are defined first. Then they are shown to be asymptotically normal, based on which a test statistic for the heteroscedasticity is constructed by using Fan's wavelet thresholding idea. Simulations show that our test is superior to the traditional nonparametric test.

Distance-covariance-based tests for heteroscedasticity in nonlinear regressions

In this paper,we propose a new numerical scheme for the coupled Stokes-Darcy model with the Beavers-Joseph-Saffman interface condition.We use the weak Galerkin method to discretize the Stokes equation and the mixed finite element method to discretize the Darcy equation.A discrete inf-sup condition is proved and the optimal error estimates are also derived.Numerical experiments validate the theoretical analysis.

Pairwise distance-based heteroscedasticity test for regressions

In this study,we propose nonparametric testing for heteroscedasticity in nonlinear regression models based on pairwise distances between points in a sample.The test statistic can be formulated such that Ustatistic theory can be applied to it.Although the limiting null distribution of the statistic is complicated,we can derive a computationally feasible bootstrap approximation for such a distribution;the validity of the introduced bootstrap algorithm is proven.The test can detect any local alternatives that are different from the null at a nearly optimal rate in hypothesis testing.The convergence rate of this test statistic does not depend on the dimension of the covariates,which significantly alleviates the impact of dimensionality.We provide three simulation studies and a real-data example to evaluate the performance of the test and demonstrate its applications.

Heteroscedasticity and/or Autocorrelation Checks in Longitudinal Nonlinear Models with Elliptical and AR(1) Errors

The aim of this paper is to study the tests for variance heterogeneity and/or autocorrelation in nonlinear regression models with elliptical and AR（1） errors. The elliptical class includes several symmetric multivariate distributions such as normal, Student-S, power exponential, among others. Several diagnostic tests using score statistics and their adjustment are constructed. The asymptotic properties, including asymptotic chi-squave and approximate powers under local alternatives of the score statistics, are studied. The properties of test statistics are investigated through Monte Carlo simulations. A data set previously analyzed under normal errors is reanalyzed under elliptical models to illustrate our test methods.

Empirical Likelihood Based Diagnostics for Heteroscedasticity in Semiparametric Varying-Coefficient Partially Linear Models with Missing Responses

This paper proposes an empirical likelihood based diagnostic technique for heteroscedasticity for semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models with missing responses. Firstly, the authors complement the missing response variables by regression method. Then, the empirical likelihood method is introduced to study the heteroscedasticity of the semiparametric varying-coefficient partially linear models with complete-case data. Finally, the authors obtain the finite sample property by numerical simulation.

Delete-group Jackknife Estimate in Partially Linear Regression Models with Heteroscedasticity

Consider a partially linear regression model with an unknown vector parameter , an unknown function g(·), and unknown heteroscedastic error variances. Chen, You[23] proposed a semiparametric generalized least squares estimator (SGLSE) for , which takes the heteroscedasticity into account to increase efficiency. For inference based on this SGLSE, it is necessary to construct a consistent estimator for its asymptotic covariance matrix. However, when there exists within-group correlation, the traditional delta method and the delete-1 jackknife estimation fail to offer such a consistent estimator. In this paper, by deleting grouped partial residuals a delete-group jackknife method is examined. It is shown that the delete-group jackknife method indeed can provide a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix in the presence of within-group correlations. This result is an extension of that in [21].

A test of conditional heteroscedasticity in time series

A new test of conditional heteroscedasticity for time series is proposed. The new testing method is based on a goodness of fit type test statistics and a Cramer-von Mises type test statistic. The asymptotic properties of the new test statistic is establised. The results demonstrate that such a test is consistent.

Diagnostic checking for conditional heteroscedasticity models

We suggest the score type tests for goodness-of-fit of conditional heteroscedasticity models in both univariate and multivariate time series.The tests can detect the alternatives converging to the null at a parametric rate.Weight functions are involved in the construction of the tests,which provides us with the flexibility to choose scores,especially under directional alternatives,for enhancing power performance.Furthermore,when the alternatives are not directional,we construct asymptotically distribution-free maximin tests for a large class of alternatives.A possibility to construct score-based omnibus tests is discussed when the alternative is saturated.The power performance is also investigated.A simulation study is carried out and a real data is analyzed.

Consistent Estimation of Order for Regression in the Presence of Serial Correlation and Heteroscedasticity

In this paper, we consider a multiple regression model in the presence of serial correlation and heteroscedasticity. We establish the convergence rate of an efficient estimation of autoregressive coefficients suggested by Harvey and Robison (1988). We propose a method to identify order of serial correlation data and prove that it is of strong consistency. The simulation reports show that the method of identifying order is available.

Heteroscedasticity Detection and Estimation with Quantile Difference Method

When dealing with regression analysis,heteroscedasticity is a problem that the authors have to face with.Especially if little information can be got in advance,detection of heteroscedasticity as well as estimation of statistical models could be even more difficult.To this end,this paper proposes a quantile difference method(QDM) that can effectively estimate the heteroscedastic function.This method,being completely free from the estimation of mean regression function,is simple,robust and easy to implement.Moreover,the QDM method enables the detection of heteroscedasticity without any restrictions on error terms,consequently being widely applied.What is worth mentioning is that based on the proposed approach estimators of both mean regression function and heteroscedastic function can be obtained.In the end,the authors conduct some simulations to examine the performance of the proposed methods and use a real data to make an illustration.