为减少电网提前或延迟退役电力变压器带来的巨大损失,提出了一种基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM(1,1)模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测新方法。笔者首先从电力变压器特性出发,结合DAHP(改进的层次分析法)算法,构建电力变压器健康状况评估指标体...为减少电网提前或延迟退役电力变压器带来的巨大损失,提出了一种基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM(1,1)模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测新方法。笔者首先从电力变压器特性出发,结合DAHP(改进的层次分析法)算法,构建电力变压器健康状况评估指标体系,并计算得到电力变压器的健康指数(health index)值。然后在电力变压器历年健康指数值基础上,结合灰色理论非等间隔GM(1,1)模型,建立了电力变压器技术寿命预测模型。最后,应用该模型分别对110、220、500 k V等级的在运电力变压器进行了技术寿命预测研究,验证了该方法的可行性,为电网退役电力变压器提供了参考依据。展开更多
Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of th...Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of this cycle.In this paper,the remaining useful life of the equipment is calculated using the combination of sensor information,determination of degradation state and forecasting the proposed health index.The combination of sensor information has been carried out using a new approach to determining the probabilities in the Dempster-Shafer combination rules and fuzzy c-means clustering method.Using the simulation and forecasting of extracted vibration-based health index by autoregressive Markov regime switching(ARMRS)method,final health state is determined and the remaining useful life(RUL)is estimated.In order to evaluate the model,sensor data provided by FEMTO-ST Institute have been used.展开更多
通过青藏高原中部兹格塘错湖泊沉积物总碳（TC）、总有机碳（TOC）、总氮（TN）、总硫（TS）、氢指数（HI）、氧指数（OI）和有机质的碳同位素（δ^13Corg）等多项指标的综合分析,在判断沉积物中有机质来源的基础上,根据各指标的变化特...通过青藏高原中部兹格塘错湖泊沉积物总碳（TC）、总有机碳（TOC）、总氮（TN）、总硫（TS）、氢指数（HI）、氧指数（OI）和有机质的碳同位素（δ^13Corg）等多项指标的综合分析,在判断沉积物中有机质来源的基础上,根据各指标的变化特征阐明了各自的气候指示意义,建立了兹格塘错全新世以来的古气候演化序列.10100 cal a BP兹格塘错地区进入全新世,全新世早中期为暖湿气候特征,在8600～8400和7400～7000 cal a BP发生两次强烈冷事件;中晚全新世以来气候变冷变干.这一气候演化过程与其邻近的错鄂的研究结果相近,代表了青藏高原中部全新世的气候演化特点.青藏高原中部全新世气候变化主要受太阳辐射控制.展开更多
文摘为减少电网提前或延迟退役电力变压器带来的巨大损失,提出了一种基于DAHP算法及非等间隔GM(1,1)模型的电力变压器技术寿命预测新方法。笔者首先从电力变压器特性出发,结合DAHP(改进的层次分析法)算法,构建电力变压器健康状况评估指标体系,并计算得到电力变压器的健康指数(health index)值。然后在电力变压器历年健康指数值基础上,结合灰色理论非等间隔GM(1,1)模型,建立了电力变压器技术寿命预测模型。最后,应用该模型分别对110、220、500 k V等级的在运电力变压器进行了技术寿命预测研究,验证了该方法的可行性,为电网退役电力变压器提供了参考依据。
文摘Condition assessment is one of the most significant techniques of the equipment’s health management.Also,in PHM methodology cycle,which is a developed form of CBM,condition assessment is the most important step of this cycle.In this paper,the remaining useful life of the equipment is calculated using the combination of sensor information,determination of degradation state and forecasting the proposed health index.The combination of sensor information has been carried out using a new approach to determining the probabilities in the Dempster-Shafer combination rules and fuzzy c-means clustering method.Using the simulation and forecasting of extracted vibration-based health index by autoregressive Markov regime switching(ARMRS)method,final health state is determined and the remaining useful life(RUL)is estimated.In order to evaluate the model,sensor data provided by FEMTO-ST Institute have been used.
文摘通过青藏高原中部兹格塘错湖泊沉积物总碳（TC）、总有机碳（TOC）、总氮（TN）、总硫（TS）、氢指数（HI）、氧指数（OI）和有机质的碳同位素（δ^13Corg）等多项指标的综合分析,在判断沉积物中有机质来源的基础上,根据各指标的变化特征阐明了各自的气候指示意义,建立了兹格塘错全新世以来的古气候演化序列.10100 cal a BP兹格塘错地区进入全新世,全新世早中期为暖湿气候特征,在8600～8400和7400～7000 cal a BP发生两次强烈冷事件;中晚全新世以来气候变冷变干.这一气候演化过程与其邻近的错鄂的研究结果相近,代表了青藏高原中部全新世的气候演化特点.青藏高原中部全新世气候变化主要受太阳辐射控制.
