Morpho-Syntactic Tagging of Text in “Baoule” Language Based on Hidden Markov Models (HMM)

The label text is a very important tool for the automatic processing of language. It is used in several applications such as morphological and syntactic text analysis, index-ing, retrieval, finished networks deterministic (in which all combinations of words that are accepted by the grammar are listed) or by statistical grammars (e.g., an n-gram in which the probabilities of sequences of n words in a specific order are given), etc. In this article, we developed a morphosyntactic labeling system language “Baoule” using hidden Markov models. This will allow us to build a tagged reference corpus and rep-resent major grammatical rules faced “Baoule” language in general. To estimate the parameters of this model, we used a training corpus manually labeled using a set of morpho-syntactic labels. We then proceed to an improvement of the system through the re-estimation procedure parameters of this model.

基于GRA-ISM-HMM的广州市肉及肉制品安全风险评估

该研究旨在利用广州食品安全风险监测2015年至2020年针对肉及肉制品样本的检测数据,构建肉及肉制品的安全风险评估模型,从而了解广州市该段时间内肉及肉制品的食品安全风险及其时变特点。该研究采取灰色关联分析方法和解释结构模型建立风险指数,并基于该指标值作为隐马尔可夫模型的观测值探讨观测背后的隐含风险状态。分析结果显示,2015~2020年所有样本综合风险指数结果都在[0,0.45]之间,总体风险都较小,其中2019年风险最高;将风险指数进行等级划分,显示2015~2020年风险等级为[1,2,2,2,3,1];通过HMM分析得到这六年的隐藏风险等级为[0,1,1,1,2,0],与观测风险结果一致,且HMM预测2021年风险等级为1,即表明广州肉及肉制品风险往良好态势发展。最后,进行风险差异原因分析,发现各肉制品分类之间有差异,其中腊肠、鸡肉和腊肉的风险指数较高于其他种类,而2019年增加腊肠和腊肉的检测是风险增加的一个原因。总体来说,广州肉及肉制品风险较小,但依旧需要监督改善。

基于DHMM-ESUM的露天矿运输系统车铲比优化研究

在露天矿生产中,如何利用现有的资源条件对电铲与卡车进行合理配比,充分发挥设备的效率,是提高矿山企业生产效益的关键。以安家岭露天矿生产系统收集的数据为基础,首先运用排队理论构建以电铲为采掘中心,卡车为运输工具的闭合排队网络模型,将运输系统分为4个排队子系统,分析各项服务时间的概率分布;基于离散隐马尔可夫模型(discrete hidden Markov model,DHMM)与拓展求和(extended summation,ESUM)算法分析系统作业性能,获取电铲设备的运行状态和班次生产能力。然后,应用蒙特卡洛法建立随机动态规划模型,以产量期望值最大化为目标对露天矿的车铲比进行优化。最后,对生产系统进行仿真建模分析,结果验证了基于DHMM-ESUM对车铲比进行优化的有效性和准确性。

基于简化HMM和时间分段的非侵入式负荷分解算法

针对现有非侵入式负荷分解算法需要以过去时刻的分解结果为依据,从而造成误差累积的问题,提出一种基于简化的隐马尔可夫模型和时间分段的非侵入式负荷分解算法,以实现居民家庭的负荷分解。对负荷的低频功率信号进行分层抽样和聚类分析,构建负荷功率模板并利用独热码对超状态进行编码表示。基于简化的隐马尔可夫模型和普遍生活规律对家庭用电时间段进行划分,在每个时间段内单独训练参数。结合总线数据和各时间段参数实现对各时刻负荷功率的独立求解。基于2种国外公开数据集的测试结果验证了所提算法的准确性和实时性。

An Intrusion Detection Method Based on Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models

This paper presents an anomaly detection approach to detect intrusions into computer systems. In this approach, a hierarchical hidden Markov model （HHMM） is used to represent a temporal profile of normal behavior in a computer system. The HHMM of the norm profile is learned from historic data of the system＇s normal behavior. The observed behavior of the system is analyzed to infer the probability that the HHMM of the norm profile supports the observed behavior. A low probability of support indicates an anomalous behavior that may result from intrusive activities. The model was implemented and tested on the UNIX system call sequences collected by the University of New Mexico group. The testing results showed that the model can clearly identify the anomaly activities and has a better performance than hidden Markov model.

基于HMM的逆雷达辐射源状态识别推理方法

雷达对抗场景中雷达方和干扰方相互感知、识别以及博弈对抗.针对雷达方对干扰方系统内部状态的非合作识别推理的问题,提出了一种对干扰系统中雷达辐射源状态识别模块处理结果进行逆向估计的方法.建立了逆状态识别任务模型,任务中的干扰系统根据雷达工作状态识别结果对其干扰动作进行优化,雷达方则基于对干扰方干扰样式序列的观测,估计干扰方对雷达工作状态的识别结果;设计了基于隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)的逆状态识别任务求解方法,具体包括通过自适应粒子群算法进行模型参数初始化,采取多观测序列的鲍姆-韦尔奇算法进行模型参数估计,采用对数维特比算法估计干扰方的雷达状态识别结果;通过典型雷达对抗场景设定下的数字仿真验证了所给逆状态识别方法的可行性和有效性.

An Examination of Male and Female Monthly Employment Rates over Time in Canada and the United States Using Hidden Markov Probability Models

In this paper, we will illustrate the use and power of Hidden Markov models in analyzing multivariate data over time. The data used in this study was obtained from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD. Stat database url: https://stats.oecd.org/) and encompassed monthly data on the employment rate of males and females in Canada and the United States (aged 15 years and over;seasonally adjusted from January 1995 to July 2018). Two different underlying patterns of trends in employment over the 23 years observation period were uncovered.

基于多源数据融合的改进HMM拥堵评估模型

针对交通流复杂的时空关联性以及自身的不确定性,为了准确评估路网通行能力并缓解交通拥堵问题,提出融合多源数据的改进隐马尔科夫模型,对交通拥堵态势进行评估。首先,引入多源数据观察特征,获得道路特征状态变量;然后,确定道路的状态参数,将交通流划分为4个状态;最后,使用改进韦尔奇算法考虑前n个时刻的历史数据,对隐马尔可夫模型进行参数估计和状态推断,获得改进后的模型。以深圳市某路段所在片区为例,对模型的有效性、适用性进行验证。结果表明:该方法准确性达到97.1%,相较于原始模型提高了4.7%,能对路网状态进行有效评估。随着采样频率的改变,改进后的模型与基准模型最低准确率分别相差9.8%、9.4%、9.7%。

Hidden Markov Models to Estimate the Lagged Effects of Weather on Stroke and Ischemic Heart Disease

The links between low temperature and the incidence of disease have been studied by many researchers. What remains still unclear is the exact nature of the relation, especially the mechanism by which the change of weather effects on the onset of diseases. The existence of lag period between exposure to temperature and its effect on mortality may reflect the nature of the onset of diseases. Therefore, to assess lagged effects becomes potentially important. The most of studies on lags used the method by Lag-distributed Poisson Regression, and neglected extreme case as random noise to get correlations. In order to assess the lagged effect, we proposed a new approach, i.e., Hidden Markov Model by Self Organized Map (HMM by SOM) apart from well-known regression models. HMM by SOM includes the randomness in its nature and encompasses the extreme cases which were neglected by auto-regression models. The daily data of the number of patients transported by ambulance in Nagoya, Japan, were used. SOM was carried out to classify the meteorological elements into six classes. These classes were used as “states” of HMM. HMM was used to describe a background process which might produce the time series of the incidence of diseases. The background process was considered to change randomly weather states, classified by SOM. We estimated the lagged effects of weather change on the onset of both cerebral infarction and ischemic heart disease. This fact is potentially important in that if one could trace a path in the chain of events leading from temperature change to death, one might be able to prevent it and avert the fatal outcome.

Fully Polarimetric Land Cover Classification Based on Hidden Markov Models Trained with Multiple Observations

A land cover classification procedure is presented utilizing the information content of fully polarimetric SAR images. The Cameron coherent target decomposition (CTD) is employed to characterize each pixel, using a set of canonical scattering mechanisms in order to describe the physical properties of the scatterer. The novelty of the proposed classification approach lies on the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) to uniquely characterize each type of land cover. The motivation to this approach is the investigation of the alternation between scattering mechanisms from SAR pixel to pixel. Depending on the observations-scattering mechanisms and exploiting the transitions between the scattering mechanisms we decide upon the HMM-land cover type. The classification process is based on the likelihood of observation sequences been evaluated by each model. The performance of the classification approach is assessed my means of fully polarimetric SLC SAR data from the broader area of Vancouver, Canada and was found satisfactory, reaching a success from 87% to over 99%.

The on-line direct fitting of low signal-noise ratio single ion channel recordings based on hidden Markov models

Many kinds of channel currents are especially weak and the background noise dominates in the patch clamp recordings. This makes the threshold detection fail during estimating of the transition probabilities. So direct fitting of the patch clamp recording, not of the histogram coming from the recordings, is a desirable way to estimate the transition probabilities. Iterative batch EM algorithm based on hidden markov model has been used in this field but which has the "curse of dimensionality" and besides cant keep tracking the varying of the parameters. A new on line sequential iterative one is proposed here, which needs fewer computational efforts and can adaptively keep tracking the varying of parameters. Simulations suggest its robust, effective and convenient.

Hidden Markov Models and Self-Organizing Maps Applied to Stroke Incidence

Several studies were devoted to investigate the effects of meteorological factors on the occurrence of stroke. Regression models had been mostly used to assess the correlation between weather and stroke incidence. However, these methods could not describe the process proceeding in the back-ground of stroke incidence. The purpose of this study was to provide a new approach based on Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and self-organizing maps (SOM), interpreting the background from the viewpoint of weather variability. Based on meteorological data, SOM was performed to classify weather patterns. Using these classes by SOM as randomly changing “states”, our Hidden Markov Models were constructed with “observation data” that were extracted from the daily data of emergency transport at Nagoya City in Japan. We showed that SOM was an effective method to get weather patterns that would serve as “states” of Hidden Markov Models. Our Hidden Markov Models provided effective models to clarify background process for stroke incidence. The effectiveness of these Hidden Markov Models was estimated by stochastic test for root mean square errors (RMSE). “HMMs with states by SOM” would serve as a description of the background process of stroke incidence and were useful to show the influence of weather on stroke onset. This finding will contribute to an improvement of our understanding for links between weather variability and stroke incidence.

Application of Hidden Markov Models in Stock Forecasting

In this paper,we tested our methodology on the stocks of four representative companies:Apple,Comcast Corporation(CMCST),Google,and Qualcomm.We compared their performance to several stocks using the hidden Markov model(HMM)and forecasts using mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).For simplicity,we considered four main features in these stocks:open,close,high,and low prices.When using the HMM for forecasting,the HMM has the best prediction for the daily low stock price and daily high stock price of Apple and CMCST,respectively.By calculating the MAPE for the four data sets of Google,the close price has the largest prediction error,while the open price has the smallest prediction error.The HMM has the largest prediction error and the smallest prediction error for Qualcomm’s daily low stock price and daily high stock price,respectively.

基于改进HMM纠偏算法的露天矿车辆高精度定位方法

针对露天矿区复杂路网背景下容易出现车辆定位偏差,严重影响生产车辆路径规划和智能调度的问题,提出了一种基于改进隐马尔可夫模型的露天矿车辆高精度定位纠偏方法。通过对构建的露天矿复杂路网地图进行路段裁剪处理以及对矿车定位轨迹数据清洗、密度稀疏化和分段处理等,建立缓冲区搜索轨迹候选路段点,从而提高复杂路网下矿车定位纠偏效率;通过计算矿车定位观测概率和转移概率建立定位纠偏HMM优化模型,并结合Viterbi算法计算最优纠偏结果,实现对露天矿车的高精度定位纠偏。研究结果表明,该方法纠偏效果优于原始HMM定位纠偏方法,纠偏准确率可达到89.2%,平均纠偏时间仅需0.055 s,能够实现对复杂背景下露天矿车辆定位坐标的有效纠偏。

无限隐Markov模型在缺失数据轴承退化趋势预测中的应用

相比较于在完整数据下设备性能退化预测,缺失数据下的预测是更加困难的,也是更有意义的。然而,现有的轴承性能退化预测方法都未考虑缺失数据下的预测,基于此,提出了一种基于无限隐马尔可夫模型的缺失数据下轴承退化预测方法。在提出的方法中,通过建立无限隐马尔可夫预测模型,预测了滚动轴承样本数据在振荡阶段所缺失的数据点,形成新的完整数据。同时,再使用建立的预测模型对新的完整数据进行单步预测。实验结果表明,与真实值对比,得到的预测数据具有较小的平均误差值;对比真实值、完整数据下的预测值和新的完整数据下的预测值,验证了提出方法的有效性,能够反映滚动轴承退化的变化趋势。提出的方法可为数据缺失下滚动轴承的退化趋势预测提供一种思路,具有重要的理论价值和工程应用价值。

基于GOSSA和HMM的时间序列预测算法

时间序列具有非线性和不稳定性等特点,当前时间序列预测研究面临模型训练参数多、泛化能力差等挑战,其预测精度无法保证.基于此,本文提出一种基于全局最优的麻雀搜索算法(Globally Optimal Sparrow Search Algorithm,GOSSA)和隐马尔可夫模型(Hidden Markov Model,HMM)相融合的时间序列预测模型(GOSSA-HMM).根据隐马尔可夫模型在模式识别和分类上的优势,对原始数据做差值处理并划分类别属性,以此作为隐马尔可夫模型的输入.采用全局最优的麻雀搜索算法对隐马尔可夫模型的参数进行训练,以解决参数训练过程中存在的收敛速度慢,对初始值设置敏感的问题.将赋予类别属性的差值数据进行分段,利用改进之后的隐马尔可夫模型测算每段序列走势的概率,从与当前数据走势相匹配的过去数据集中定位相同的模型实现预测.通过对山东半岛15个海洋牧场的溶解氧数据进行预测分析,结果表明与当前主要时间序列预测算法相比,GOSSA-HMM训练的参数较少,计算成本较低,具有更好的预测精度和泛化能力.

基于CHMM和SSA-SVM模型的高速铁路道岔设备健康状态评估方法

为更加精准地评估道岔设备健康状态,加强对设备的维护与管理,以ZDJ9型转辙机驱动的高速铁路道岔设备为研究对象,提取道岔功率曲线的时域、频域特征指标及经验模态分解奇异值熵,组成道岔特征指标向量,并采用核主成分分析法消除原始多维特征信息的冗余,构建道岔特征指标样本数据库;利用连续隐马尔可夫模型划分道岔退化状态,在此基础上,建立麻雀搜索算法优化支持向量机的健康状态综合评估模型。研究结果表明:所构建的健康状态评估模型的评估正确率高达98.75%,不仅能够实现高铁道岔设备健康状态综合评估效能,而且明显优于GridSearch-SVM、GA-SVM、PSO-SVM等组合算法,为实现道岔设备由“故障修”到“状态修”的综合智能维护提供可行途径。

Hidden Markov model based epileptic seizure detection using tunable Q wavelet transform

Epilepsy is one of the most prevalent neurological disorders affecting 70 million people worldwide.The present work is focused on designing an efficient algorithm for automatic seizure detection by using electroencephalogram(EEG) as a noninvasive procedure to record neuronal activities in the brain.EEG signals' underlying dynamics are extracted to differentiate healthy and seizure EEG signals.Shannon entropy,collision entropy,transfer entropy,conditional probability,and Hjorth parameter features are extracted from subbands of tunable Q wavelet transform.Efficient decomposition level for different feature vector is selected using the Kruskal-Wallis test to achieve good classification.Different features are combined using the discriminant correlation analysis fusion technique to form a single fused feature vector.The accuracy of the proposed approach is higher for Q=2 and J=10.Transfer entropy is observed to be significant for different class combinations.Proposed approach achieved 100% accuracy in classifying healthy-seizure EEG signal using simple and robust features and hidden Markov model with less computation time.The proposed approach efficiency is evaluated in classifying seizure and non-seizure surface EEG signals.The system has achieved 96.87% accuracy in classifying surface seizure and nonseizure EEG segments using efficient features extracted from different J level.

FAULT DIAGNOSIS APPROACH BASED ON HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL AND SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE

Aiming at solving the problems of machine-learning in fault diagnosis, a diagnosis approach is proposed based on hidden Markov model （HMM） and support vector machine （SVM）. HMM usually describes intra-class measure well and is good at dealing with continuous dynamic signals. SVM expresses inter-class difference effectively and has perfect classify ability. This approach is built on the merit of HMM and SVM. Then, the experiment is made in the transmission system of a helicopter. With the features extracted from vibration signals in gearbox, this HMM-SVM based diagnostic approach is trained and used to monitor and diagnose the gearbox＇s faults. The result shows that this method is better than HMM-based and SVM-based diagnosing methods in higher diagnostic accuracy with small training samples.