This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study are...This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.展开更多
Purpose:Based on the understanding of the characteristics of mobile services(m-services)provided by libraries,we attempt to develop a multidimensional and hierarchical model and a specifically designed measurement sca...Purpose:Based on the understanding of the characteristics of mobile services(m-services)provided by libraries,we attempt to develop a multidimensional and hierarchical model and a specifically designed measurement scale for the assessment of libraries' m-service quality.Design/methodology/approach:The research has been conducted sequentially in two stages.At the first stage,a multidimensional and hierarchical model of library m-service quality and a measurement scale are developed through literature review and focus group interviews.At the second stage the model is tested using partial disaggregation technique for an analysis of the data collected from over 400 library users in 3 Chinese universities.Findings:The proposed model is shown to fit the data well.The empirical analysis provides strong support for the model,which includes 4 dimensions(service environment,service interaction,information control and service effect) and 12 corresponding sub-dimensions.Research limitations:The sample size needs to be enlarged and the user types need to be expanded to make the sample more representative.Practical implications:The study provides a conceptual framework and measurement tool that can help library managers understand the users' needs in the context of mobile network environment,and boost their libraries' competitiveness by carrying out better services to meet the user demands.Originality/value:The proposed model and measurement scale specifically designed for the assessment of libraries' m-service quality fully reflect the hierarchical structure of libraries' m-service quality.In addition,by using partial disaggregation technique for model testing,we believe our research can serve as a practical reference to those engaged in the development and examination of a multidimensional and hierarchical model.展开更多
Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in the number of towering structures,and overturning is widely used because it can better accommodate the construction of shaped structures such as variable sections.The complexit...Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in the number of towering structures,and overturning is widely used because it can better accommodate the construction of shaped structures such as variable sections.The complexity of the construction process makes the construction risk have certain randomness,so this paper proposes a cloudbased coupled matter-element model to address the ambiguity and randomness in the safety risk assessment of overturning construction of towering structures.In the pretended model,the digital eigenvalues of the cloud model are used to replace the eigenvalues in the matter–element basic element,and calculate the cloud correlation of the risk assessment metrics through the correlation algorithm of the cloud model to build the computational model.Meanwhile,the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model is used to determine the weight of the index.The comprehensive evaluation scores of the evaluation event are then obtained through the weighted average method,and the safety risk level is determined accordingly.Through empirical analysis,(1)the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model can incorporate the data of multiple decisionmakers into the calculation formula to determine theweights,which makes the assessment resultsmore credible;(2)the evaluation results of the cloud-basedmatter-element coupledmodelmethod are basically consistent with those of the other two commonly used methods,and the confidence factor is less than 0.05,indicating that the cloudbased physical element coupled model method is reasonable and practical for towering structure overturning;(3)the cloud-based coupled element model method,which confirms the reliability of risk level by performing Spearman correlation on comprehensive assessment scores,can provide more comprehensive information of instances compared with other methods,and more comprehensively reflects the fuzzy uncertainty relationship between assessment indexes,which makes the assessment results more realistic,scientific and reliable.展开更多
The concrete aggregate model is considered as a type of weakly discontinuous problem consisting of three phases:aggregates which randomly distributed in different shapes,cement paste and internal transition zone(ITZ)....The concrete aggregate model is considered as a type of weakly discontinuous problem consisting of three phases:aggregates which randomly distributed in different shapes,cement paste and internal transition zone(ITZ).Because of different shapes of aggregate and thin ITZs,a huge number of elements are often used in the finite element(FEM)analysis.In order to ensure the accuracy of the numerical solutions near the interfaces,we need to use higher-order elements.The widely used FEM softwares such as ANSYS and ABAQUS all provide the option of quadratic elements.However,they have much higher computational complexity than the linear elements.The corresponding coefficient matrix of the system of equations is a highly ill-conditioned matrix due to the large difference between three phase materials,and the convergence rate of the commonly used solving methods will deteriorate.In this paper,two types of simple and efficient preconditioners are proposed for the system of equations of the concrete aggregate models on unstructured triangle meshes by using the resulting hierarchical structure and the properties of the diagonal block matrices.The main computational cost of these preconditioners is how to efficiently solve the system of equations by using linear elements,and thus we can provide some efficient and robust solvers by calling the existing geometric-based algebraic multigrid(GAMG)methods.Since the hierarchical basis functions are used,we need not present those algebraic criterions to judge the relationships between the unknown variables and the geometric node types,and the grid transfer operators are also trivial.This makes it easy to find the linear element matrix derived directly from the fine level matrix,and thus the overall efficiency is greatly improved.The numerical results have verified the efficiency of the resulting preconditioned conjugate gradient(PCG)methods which are applied to the solution of several typical aggregate models.展开更多
We consider a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the three components of the economic activity of enterprises—production, management and resource consumption. For the analysis of the dynamics, the methods ...We consider a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the three components of the economic activity of enterprises—production, management and resource consumption. For the analysis of the dynamics, the methods and criteria formulated by the authors earlier were used;new results of a practical nature were obtained;in particular, the calculation of the spectrum of small perturbations of the system depending on the input resource and system parameters is given. It is shown that the calculated values of the criteria of instability and chaos are fully consistent with the calculation of the spectrum, indicated the stability intervals of the system, as well as areas of instability and chaos.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779074 and 41371052)the Special Fund for the Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.201501059)+3 种基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0404304)the Jiangsu Water Conservancy Science and Technology Project(Grant No.2017027)the Program for Outstanding Young Talents in Colleges and Universities of Anhui Province(Grant No.gxyq2018143)the Natural Science Foundation of Wanjiang University of Technology(Grant No.WG18030)
文摘This study developed a hierarchical Bayesian(HB)model for local and regional flood frequency analysis in the Dongting Lake Basin,in China.The annual maximum daily flows from 15 streamflow-gauged sites in the study area were analyzed with the HB model.The generalized extreme value(GEV)distribution was selected as the extreme flood distribution,and the GEV distribution location and scale parameters were spatially modeled through a regression approach with the drainage area as a covariate.The Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method with Gibbs sampling was employed to calculate the posterior distribution in the HB model.The results showed that the proposed HB model provided satisfactory Bayesian credible intervals for flood quantiles,while the traditional delta method could not provide reliable uncertainty estimations for large flood quantiles,due to the fact that the lower confidence bounds tended to decrease as the return periods increased.Furthermore,the HB model for regional analysis allowed for a reduction in the value of some restrictive assumptions in the traditional index flood method,such as the homogeneity region assumption and the scale invariance assumption.The HB model can also provide an uncertainty band of flood quantile prediction at a poorly gauged or ungauged site,but the index flood method with L-moments does not demonstrate this uncertainty directly.Therefore,the HB model is an effective method of implementing the flexible local and regional frequency analysis scheme,and of quantifying the associated predictive uncertainty.
基金supported by the Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.:12CTQ005)
文摘Purpose:Based on the understanding of the characteristics of mobile services(m-services)provided by libraries,we attempt to develop a multidimensional and hierarchical model and a specifically designed measurement scale for the assessment of libraries' m-service quality.Design/methodology/approach:The research has been conducted sequentially in two stages.At the first stage,a multidimensional and hierarchical model of library m-service quality and a measurement scale are developed through literature review and focus group interviews.At the second stage the model is tested using partial disaggregation technique for an analysis of the data collected from over 400 library users in 3 Chinese universities.Findings:The proposed model is shown to fit the data well.The empirical analysis provides strong support for the model,which includes 4 dimensions(service environment,service interaction,information control and service effect) and 12 corresponding sub-dimensions.Research limitations:The sample size needs to be enlarged and the user types need to be expanded to make the sample more representative.Practical implications:The study provides a conceptual framework and measurement tool that can help library managers understand the users' needs in the context of mobile network environment,and boost their libraries' competitiveness by carrying out better services to meet the user demands.Originality/value:The proposed model and measurement scale specifically designed for the assessment of libraries' m-service quality fully reflect the hierarchical structure of libraries' m-service quality.In addition,by using partial disaggregation technique for model testing,we believe our research can serve as a practical reference to those engaged in the development and examination of a multidimensional and hierarchical model.
基金funded by China Railway No.21 Bureau Group No.1 Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Grant No.202209140002.
文摘Rapid urbanization has led to a surge in the number of towering structures,and overturning is widely used because it can better accommodate the construction of shaped structures such as variable sections.The complexity of the construction process makes the construction risk have certain randomness,so this paper proposes a cloudbased coupled matter-element model to address the ambiguity and randomness in the safety risk assessment of overturning construction of towering structures.In the pretended model,the digital eigenvalues of the cloud model are used to replace the eigenvalues in the matter–element basic element,and calculate the cloud correlation of the risk assessment metrics through the correlation algorithm of the cloud model to build the computational model.Meanwhile,the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model is used to determine the weight of the index.The comprehensive evaluation scores of the evaluation event are then obtained through the weighted average method,and the safety risk level is determined accordingly.Through empirical analysis,(1)the improved hierarchical analysis method based on the cloud model can incorporate the data of multiple decisionmakers into the calculation formula to determine theweights,which makes the assessment resultsmore credible;(2)the evaluation results of the cloud-basedmatter-element coupledmodelmethod are basically consistent with those of the other two commonly used methods,and the confidence factor is less than 0.05,indicating that the cloudbased physical element coupled model method is reasonable and practical for towering structure overturning;(3)the cloud-based coupled element model method,which confirms the reliability of risk level by performing Spearman correlation on comprehensive assessment scores,can provide more comprehensive information of instances compared with other methods,and more comprehensively reflects the fuzzy uncertainty relationship between assessment indexes,which makes the assessment results more realistic,scientific and reliable.
基金This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11601462)the Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.14JJ2063)the Scientific Research Fund of Hunan Provincial Education Department(Grant No.15A183).
文摘The concrete aggregate model is considered as a type of weakly discontinuous problem consisting of three phases:aggregates which randomly distributed in different shapes,cement paste and internal transition zone(ITZ).Because of different shapes of aggregate and thin ITZs,a huge number of elements are often used in the finite element(FEM)analysis.In order to ensure the accuracy of the numerical solutions near the interfaces,we need to use higher-order elements.The widely used FEM softwares such as ANSYS and ABAQUS all provide the option of quadratic elements.However,they have much higher computational complexity than the linear elements.The corresponding coefficient matrix of the system of equations is a highly ill-conditioned matrix due to the large difference between three phase materials,and the convergence rate of the commonly used solving methods will deteriorate.In this paper,two types of simple and efficient preconditioners are proposed for the system of equations of the concrete aggregate models on unstructured triangle meshes by using the resulting hierarchical structure and the properties of the diagonal block matrices.The main computational cost of these preconditioners is how to efficiently solve the system of equations by using linear elements,and thus we can provide some efficient and robust solvers by calling the existing geometric-based algebraic multigrid(GAMG)methods.Since the hierarchical basis functions are used,we need not present those algebraic criterions to judge the relationships between the unknown variables and the geometric node types,and the grid transfer operators are also trivial.This makes it easy to find the linear element matrix derived directly from the fine level matrix,and thus the overall efficiency is greatly improved.The numerical results have verified the efficiency of the resulting preconditioned conjugate gradient(PCG)methods which are applied to the solution of several typical aggregate models.
文摘We consider a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the three components of the economic activity of enterprises—production, management and resource consumption. For the analysis of the dynamics, the methods and criteria formulated by the authors earlier were used;new results of a practical nature were obtained;in particular, the calculation of the spectrum of small perturbations of the system depending on the input resource and system parameters is given. It is shown that the calculated values of the criteria of instability and chaos are fully consistent with the calculation of the spectrum, indicated the stability intervals of the system, as well as areas of instability and chaos.