We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilat...We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilated multiple data sources and accounted for uncertainties from data, parameters and model structures. Full predictive distributions for streamflow from the Bayesian analysis indicate not only increasing drought, with substantial decrease in fall and summer flows, and soil moisture content, but also increase in the frequency of flood events when they were fit with Generalized Extreme Value （GEV） distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution （GPD） under this doubled CO2 climate scenario compared to the current climate scenario. Full predictive distributions based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, compared to deterministic point estimates, is capable of providing richer information to facilitate development of adaptation strategy to changing climate for a sustainable water resource management.展开更多
The Hangzhou Bay（HZB） and Xiangshan Bay（XSB）, in northern Zhejiang Province and connect to the East China Sea（ECS） were considerably affected by the consequence of water quality degradation. In this study, we an...The Hangzhou Bay（HZB） and Xiangshan Bay（XSB）, in northern Zhejiang Province and connect to the East China Sea（ECS） were considerably affected by the consequence of water quality degradation. In this study, we analyzed physical and biogeochemical properties of water quality via multivariate statistical techniques. Hierarchical cluster analysis（HCA） grouped HZB and XSB into two subareas of different pollution sources based on similar physical and biogeochemical properties. Principal component analysis（PCA） identified three latent pollution sources in HZB and XSB respectively and emphasized the importance of terrestrial inputs, coastal industries as well as natural processes in determining the water quality of the two bays. Therefore, proper measurement for the protection of aquatic ecoenvironment in HZB and XSB were of great urgency.展开更多
基金grants from the National Science Foundation (NSF) through Coweeta Long Term Ecological Research (LTER)
文摘We have applied a full hierarchical Baysian （HB） model to simulate streamffow at the Coweeta Basin that drains western North Carolina, USA under a doubled CO2 climate scenario. The full HB model coherently assimilated multiple data sources and accounted for uncertainties from data, parameters and model structures. Full predictive distributions for streamflow from the Bayesian analysis indicate not only increasing drought, with substantial decrease in fall and summer flows, and soil moisture content, but also increase in the frequency of flood events when they were fit with Generalized Extreme Value （GEV） distribution and Generalized Pareto Distribution （GPD） under this doubled CO2 climate scenario compared to the current climate scenario. Full predictive distributions based on the hierarchical Bayesian model, compared to deterministic point estimates, is capable of providing richer information to facilitate development of adaptation strategy to changing climate for a sustainable water resource management.
基金The National Marine Ecoenvironment Assessment Program of State Oceanic Administration
文摘The Hangzhou Bay（HZB） and Xiangshan Bay（XSB）, in northern Zhejiang Province and connect to the East China Sea（ECS） were considerably affected by the consequence of water quality degradation. In this study, we analyzed physical and biogeochemical properties of water quality via multivariate statistical techniques. Hierarchical cluster analysis（HCA） grouped HZB and XSB into two subareas of different pollution sources based on similar physical and biogeochemical properties. Principal component analysis（PCA） identified three latent pollution sources in HZB and XSB respectively and emphasized the importance of terrestrial inputs, coastal industries as well as natural processes in determining the water quality of the two bays. Therefore, proper measurement for the protection of aquatic ecoenvironment in HZB and XSB were of great urgency.
