Future changes of cluster high temperature events over China from RegCM4 ensemble under RCP4.5 scenario

Using the daily maximum temperature of the RegCM4 dynamical downscaling from four global climate models under the historical and RCP4.5 simulations,this study firstly identified the cluster high temperature event(CHTE)occurring in China through a simplified objective method,and then projected its change during the 21st century in terms of the CHTE metrics including frequency,duration,extreme intensity,cumulative intensity,maximum influential area,average influential area,and comprehensive intensity.The ensemble projection indicates that all the CHTE metrics tend to increase toward the end of the 21st century on the national scale.Besides,the occurrence of CHTE shows a longer month span during the middle and the end of the 21st century(from April to October)compared to the present(from April to September),accompanied with the peaks of the frequency,duration,and cumulative intensity shifting from the present July ahead to June.Relative to 1986-2005,the projected slight,moderate,and extreme CHTEs increase by 55%,50%,and 50%(58%,43%,and 60%)during 2046-2065(2080-2099),respectively;the projected severe CHTE increases by 11%during 2046-2065 while decreases by 11% during 2080-2099.Spatially,the CHTE frequency,duration,and cumulative intensity are projected to increase in a widespread region.The largest increase appears in southern China for the frequency and in Xinjiang and Southeast China for the duration and cumulative intensity.We further divided China into five sub-regions to examine the regional features of CHTE changes.It is found that in addition to the increase of CHTEs in each single subregion,a pronounced enhancement is also projected for the occurrence of cross-regional CHTEs,particularly for that across more than two subregions.

Synergistic Contribution of Precipitation Anomalies over Northwestern India and the South China Sea to High Temperature over the Yangtze River Valley

This study explores the characteristics of high temperature anomalies over eastern China and associated influencing factors using observations and model outputs.Results show that more long-duration（over 8 days） high temperature events occur over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley（YRV） than over the surrounding regions,and control most of the interannual variation of summer mean temperature in situ.The synergistic effect of summer precipitation over the South China Sea（SCS） region（18°–27°N,115°–124°E） and the northwestern India and Arabian Sea（IAS） region（18°–27°N,60°–80°E） contributes more significantly to the variation of summer YRV temperature,relative to the respective SCS or IAS precipitation anomaly.More precipitation（enhanced condensational heating） over the SCS region strengthens the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） and simultaneously weakens the westerly trough over the east coast of Asia,and accordingly results in associated high temperature anomalies over the YRV region through stimulating an East Asia–Pacific（EAP） pattern.More precipitation over the IAS region further adjusts the variations of the WPSH and westerly trough,and eventually reinforces high temperature anomalies over the YRV region.Furthermore,the condensational heating related to more IAS precipitation can adjust upper-tropospheric easterly anomalies over the YRV region by exciting a circumglobal teleconnection,inducing cold horizontal temperature advection and related anomalous descent,which is also conducive to the YRV high temperature anomalies.The reproduction of the above association in the model results indicates that the above results can be explained both statistically and dynamically.

Intra-seasonal Features of an Extreme High Temperature Event in 2011 in Eastern China and Its Atmospheric Circulation

Based on the daily maximum air temperature(T_(max))data from the China Meteorological Data Network and the NCEP/DOE reanalysis data,the intra-seasonal circulation and evolution of an extreme high temperature event(EHTE)in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River(MYR)from August 9-21,2011 were explored,as well as the influence of diabatic heating on the position variation of the Western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Results show that the daily T_(max) in the MYR exhibits a vigorous intraseasonal oscillation(ISO)of 10-25 days in the extended summer of 1980-2018.The main factors affecting the EHTE in the summer of 2011 are the low-frequency wave train propagating southeastward in the mid-latitude of the upper troposphere and the low-frequency anticyclone moving northwestward in the lowlatitude of the mid-lower troposphere.The diagnosis of 925hPa thermodynamic equation indicates that the ISO features of the T_(max) in the core region is determined by the intra-seasonal variation of the adiabatic variation.In addition,the variations of the WPSH correspond well to the distribution of apparent heat source.In the early stage of the high temperature process,the apparent heat source in the north of the Bay of Bengal is a certain indicator for the westward extension of the WPSH.